Ambassador Susanne Hyldelund, Under-Secretary for The Trade Council
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Ambassador Susanne Hyldelund, Under-Secretary for The Trade Council
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Ambassador Susanne Hyldelund, Under-Secretary for The Trade Council
- 1. Global Market Trends by Ambassador Susanne Hyldelund, Under-Secretary for The Trade Council ”Global Gateway to Export 2015” Koldkærgård Conference Center, Agro Food Park - Tuesday, June 9. 2015
- 2. Agenda The Big Picture - Global Tendencies - Which megatrends to follow? The Export Outlook - Where are the posibilities? 2
- 3. 3 TheBig Picture Theeconomic centerof gravity is on themove Udvikling i jordens økonomiske tyngdepunkt1
- 4. Global Economic Growth Short and Long Run 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Verden USA Euro-landene Kina Note: Baseline 100 index = Real GDP Level Year 2014 . Source: Oxford Economics Ltd. and calculations by The Trade Council ‘s Aanlytical Department. Long Run Accumulated Economic Growth World China Euro Area USA 4 3.1 2.0 1.4 6.8 3.8 2.8 2.1 6.7 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 World USA Euro Area China % The global recovery will gain momentum only slowly Real GDP Growth, pct. 2002-2011 Avg. 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Note: Growth Estimates - yearly real growth in GDP. Source: OECD Economic Outlook, June 2015.
- 5. Income levels towards 2030 GDP Growth (blue nuances) Income Level (green columns) – expressed in GDP per capita by 1.000 USD 5 Source: Centre for European Policy studies (2013)
- 6. Economic impact • Economic growth and innovation. • Debt Dynamics. • Urbanization (Elderly cities) • Changing patters of consumption • Need for new products, services and business models. 6 Aging Societies
- 7. 7 TheBalance of Risks –Disclaimer! 2014 2030 EURO Crisis Geo Conflicts Climate Change New Technologies New forms of Energy
- 8. MFA ExportOutlook 2015-2016 8 40.000 42.000 44.000 46.000 48.000 50.000 52.000 54.000 56.000 MFA Export Outlook for 2015 og 2016 Vareeksporten, eksklusiv skibe, fly og energivarer, sæsonkorrigeret, mill.kr. pr. måned. Årets priser. Realiseret Skøn maj Årssnit pr. mnd. 2014 2015 2016 Tyskland 11,6% 2,6% 5,1% Sverige 3,9% -3,6% 5,2% USA 7,4% 23,4% 8,2% Storbritannien -2,2% 9,5% 8,8% Norge 1,0% -3,1% 2,9% Kina (ex Hongkong) 13,5% 20,7% 13,9% Frankrig 7,3% -2,2% 3,5% Nederlandene 2,0% -0,2% 1,8% Polen 8,5% 3,1% 6,7% Italien -0,4% 1,7% -0,8% Finland -0,3% 1,0% -1,3% I alt (Verden) 2,0% 5,7% 6,0% Heraf EU28 3,9% 2,2% 4,4% Heraf ikke EU-lande -0,9% 11,2% 8,4% Basisvareeksporten er vareeksporten eksklusiv energi, skibe og fly Vækst i basisvareeksport, pct.
- 9. Danish Export: Volume and Growth 9 Vesteuropa 62% Udvalgte østeuropæiske lande 5% Rusland og SNG 2% Nordafrika/Me llemøst/Golfen . 4% Nordamerika 10% Latinamerika 2% Asien & Australasien 15% Distribution of Danish Exports of Goods, 2014 (excluding exports of energy) Vesteuropa 35% Udvalgte østeuropæiske lande 3% Rusland og SNG -1%Nordafrika/Melle møst/Golfen. 8% Nordamerika 19% Latinamerika 4% Asien & Australasien 30% Distribution of GROWTH in Danish Exports of Goods, 2012-14 (excluding exports of energy)
- 10. • Government Strategy on Export Promotion and Economic Diplomacy (May 2014). - Economic Diplomacy as key tool across Government. • Special priority to important growth markets and key volume markets. • Partnerships with business, business organisations and authorities. • Building more strategic relations with Danish businesses. 10
- 11. 11
- 12. • MFA strengthening cooperation with Danish line ministries • Strategic sector export, e.g. Export of the Danish Energy model • ”Partnering with Denmark – Danish Authorities in Int. Cooperation” - 17 Growth Counsellors to 12 countries. • Global Public Affairs – Strenghtened GPA advisory services – 40% target in 2020. 12
Notas do Editor
- Budskaber: The Big Picture The economic center of the world has shifted dramatically - and very, very fast – towards the East. In no previous decade has the speed of change been as fast as from 2000-2010. Not even in the 19th century when the direction of the shift was towards Western Europe and USA. This shift changes the global balance of power. It encompases changes in politics, economics, international trade, and rules of the game. The shift changes how to do business. To survive many companies have to change their business models. All companies are faced with demands to adapt to this new environment. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Trade Council also have to adapt to this new context. We are all faced with the need to be more flexible and agile, efficient and develop new business models. Fortælling: McKinsey har fundet en måde hvorpå man kan bestemme jordens økonomiske tyngdepunkt tre-dimensionelt, og derpå tegnet en linje fra jordens midte gennem tyngdepunktet og op på jordens overflade. Det giver mulighed for at følge forskydningen i jordens økonomiske tyngdepunkt over tid. De første ca. 1800 år figuren dækker sker der ikke meget. Det økonomiske tyngdepunkt ligger og bevæger sig over stan-landene – Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kazakhstan. Det afspejler blandt andet, at hvad man dengang kaldte Orienten, herunder særligt nutidens Mellemøsten, i mange århundreder efter vor tidsregning var økonomisk kraftcenter. Men med EU og USA’s langt hurtigere økonomiske vækst igennem de følgende 100 år forrykker tyngdepunktet sig til et sted mellem den norske vestkyst og Island, hvor den ligger relativt stabilt indtil omkring 1980 / 1990. Med murens fald samt den kraftige vækst i visse asiatiske lande (Japan, Sydkorea m.fl.) rykker tyngdepunktet i løbet af 80’erne og 90’erne mod øst med stigende hastighed. Det med afstand hurtigste skift i det økonomiske tyngdepunkt sker imidlertid mellem 2000 og 2010. Her rykker tyngdepunktet 2-3000 km mod øst på bare 10 år. Det afspejler naturligvis den voldsomme vækst i Kina, men også Indiens, Ruslands, Indonesiens og det øvrige Sydøstasiens vækst trækker tyngdepunktet østpå med så voldsom fart.
- Global recovery is on its way in the advanced countries – but only slowly Growth potential in the USA is around 3 percent per year, while in Europe the potential is closer to 1½-2 percent per year. China (and other emerging markets) will continue to enjoy much higher economic growth than advanced economies. When those growth factors are accumulated over a 15 year period the differences are quite large.
- Budskaber: Pr. capita income rise three times in China and India during the period 2010-2030 (Green columns). In China the size of the middle income class will increase very fast. In 2030 per capita income will approach the income level of Europe in 2010. (PPP = Purchasing Power Parity). Per capita levels in Africa will stay at rather low levels. The highest income levels in 2030 will continue to be in Europe, Japan and North America – but China will increasingly catch up. Fortælling: Det geo-økonomiske landskab er under forandring – og forskydningen i verdensøkonomien er allerede i fuld gang mod Asien. Det præcise billede afhænger af kilderne og antagelserne, men billedet er de samme. Kina bliver formodentlig verdens største økonomi allerede i 2016/2017 (målt i købekraftsjusteret BNP). Målt i markedspriser ventes Kina at overhale USA omkring 2023-2025, medens Kina overgik Euro-landene i 2012. I 2060 forudser OECD, at Kina og Indien tilsammen vil være større end alle (nuværende) OECD-økonomier tilsammen. Kina og Indien har i dag en samlet økonomi, der udgør 1/3 af OECD, så det er en grundlæggende forskydning der forudses. BRIK-landene ventes at overhale G7 i løbet af 2025-30. I 1990 var ingen af BRIK-landene blandt verdens 5 største økonomier. 90 pct. af den globale vækst ventes frem mod 2015 genereret uden for EU, heraf 1/3 alene i Kina. 60 pct. af den globale vækst frem mod 2015 ventes at komme fra de 10 vækstmarkeder, som regeringen har udvalgt i den særlige vækstmarkedsstrategi.
- Aging societies: In Japan there is one elderly person per 2 person persons in the working force. (50 percent old age dependency). Germany will reach this stage by 2030. Old age dependency is still low in China, but rising very fast. The quesiton is: Will China get rich before it gets old? (Otherwise they will encounter big problems). Economic impact Aging societies have lower economic growth (smaller working force, less investment and construction, lower consumption of goods) Aging societies have higher expenditure to pensions and health care. Often higher taxes which further decreases economic growth. If a country enters its ”elderly” stage with a high level of public debt there is a risk of bankrupcy due to slower growth and higher public expenditure. Old people tend to move to the urban centers. Cities in the future will increasingly be ”elderly cities”. The change in demographics will change the paterns of consumption. This is a challenge for some businesses, but a huge opportunity for others.
- Disclaimer: Lots of uncertainties when forecasting the future.
- Export Outlook We expect 5,7 percent growth in Danish exports of goods in 2015, and 6 percent growth in 2016 (current prices). The latest Exports figures was a nice surprise: In March Danish exports rose 7,2 percent compared to February – much more than anticipated. Danish exports are currently favoured by a relative low exchange rate (DKK pegged to Euro), and rising demand on our major export markets. Also Danish companies are favoured by very high increases in producitivity and by increasingly competitive wage levels.
- Export Outlook We expect continued high increases in Danish exports to China and the USA. Higher economic growth in the EU will also increasingly benefit Danish exports.
- New MFA action plan on economic diplomacy to promote growth-oriented thinking in the MFA and to ensure effective implementation of the Government Strategy on Export Promotion and Economic Diplomacy. Key principles of action plan: Integration: integrating economic interests in foreign, development, investment and trade activities. Sector approach: Focus bilateral cooperation on selected sectors (not applicable to small missions with) Partnership: Collaboration and partnership with the entire Government, private business, business organisations, academia etc. Partnership with business organisations on official export promotion activities. Cooperation between authorities: Strategic sector cooperation, cf. next slide. Framework conditions: Working to achieve optimal framework conditions in international negotiations and at country level. New representations in key growth markets opened in 2014; countries where companies may need more assistance in entering the markets: Colombia, Myanmar, Nigeria and Philipines.
- GIT globale fødevareteam i alt tæller 60 kolleger i 43 lande. Af dem vil 39 repræsenterende 32 lande være tilstede på fødevarekonferencen Global Gateway to Food Export 2015 på Koldkjærgård på tirsdag. Fødevarer tegner sig for ca. 25 % af den samlede danske eksport, deraf 60 % til EU. Vækstrådgivere med fokus på fødevarer i Colombia, Kenya, Vietnam og Kina.
- Strategic sector export - combining Danish sector ministry expertise with MFA commercial knowledge in key markets, paving the way for Danish exports. E.g. “export of the Danish energy model” to UK, Germany in collaboration with the Danish Energy Agency. “Partnering with Denmark – Danish Authorities in International Cooperation” (myndighedssamarbejde): Testing new grounds of working with synergy between trade and development. Danish line ministries will offer their competences and experiences on policy development, regulatory frameworks etc. within their specific sector and implement strategic sector cooperation projects with local authorities. Sector experts, so called Growth Counsellors will facilitate this cooperation but will also convey knowledge of commercial opportunities.