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The Spirit 0f 1945
 and where did it go?



Contribution of ideas to Ken Loache’s film
Ralph Blake
Financial Analyst former head of research & strategy
Goldman Sachs International
                                                       1
 UK industry needed to meet::
   basic needs of whole UK population
    Materially support the war effort task
 Private industry had little capital and organisation after 30s
  depression
 State planning and organisation need to fulfil the role
 Capital came from USA
    The equivalent of £200 billion of today’s money lent by US government
 State control, regulation and borrowed finance was made in the
  common good


  Industry subject to state
  control during the WWII                                                    2
 Was a key policy of the Independent Labour Movement
 Success in transforming Soviet Union meant it had affinity with
  some sections of working class
 One of Labour’s key 45 demands
   Industry in the service of the nation -
   Houses for the people
   Price controls on food & building materials
   NHS
   Cradle to grave welfare state
   War dividend



Nationalisation and the
UK labour movement                                                  3
 At the end of the war apart from the USA & UK most of the world’s
  industrial capacity had been raised to the ground or dismantled
 UK had to help meet the supply of manufactured goods to meet the
  world demand
    little private capital after 30s & war
    Private industry fragmented
 Nationalisation provided subsidised:
    Materials, energy, transport and infrastructure
 By 1952 the UK was producing 25.4% of the world’s manufactured
  goods
 How did it fall to 2.9% by 2009?




1945 UK industry had to be
state controlled & funded                                             4
   Coal
   Utilities
   Gas
   Steel
   Transport
   Only steel renationalised by Tories but nationalised again in 1967 to subsidise materials to
    industry

 Later wave of nationalisations to deal with crisis of 1970s
    Rolls Royce
    British Leyland
    British Aerospace
    British Shipbuilding




What was nationalised and
what was reversed by Tories?                                                                       5
 Rest of the world builds up it’s industry with more
 investment and lower wages
 UK industry profitability falls from 16.5% in 1950 -54 to
 9.7% in 1970 on lack of investment
   Economist coined the classic phrase “Profits first.
   Investment later”




The UK losses it’s lead as
the world catches up                                      6
• a 30 year period of global expansion ends abruptly in 1974
    •   Over production of goods
    •   Over accumulation of profits
    •   Falling rate of profits
    •   And mass over capacity
  • Led by the car, shipbuilding and aerospace industries
  • Labour tries to save failing industries by nationalisation
  • But capitalism needs to reduce capacity and increase profits
    rates to compete with rest of world
  • Enter Thatcher




The end of the boom                                              7
• privatise
• New owners will rationalise and return rate of profit
• The did the latter but not the former
• Rate of profit never competitive because of low
  investment and higher wage rates
• Manufacturing has flown East where there are higher
  rates of profit




Thatcher’s solution                                       8
 Not on the basis of competition on the world market
 But on the basis of meeting the common good
   Cheap or free integrated public transport
   Socially affordable sustainable housing
   Cheap renewable energy
 Any economy needs these to function
 they would use some of the potential of our some 5 million unemployed adults and
  young
 Through a national investment bank instead of bank bail outs
 A fair redistributive tax system instead of austerity
 Take oil under public ownership and control
 Close tax avoidance

 Generate demand in the economy to create jobs in the private sector




Can UK industry be rebuilt?                                                          9
Unlike Soviet & 1945 model
People’s industries would genuinely serve the
 democratically decided needs of whole population
The industries would be participative and run by the
 people that work in them to meet the needs of the
 whole population
 they would be protected from private competition


Industry under common control
& common planning                                   10

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The Spirit of 1945 and Where it Went

  • 1. The Spirit 0f 1945 and where did it go? Contribution of ideas to Ken Loache’s film Ralph Blake Financial Analyst former head of research & strategy Goldman Sachs International 1
  • 2.  UK industry needed to meet::  basic needs of whole UK population  Materially support the war effort task  Private industry had little capital and organisation after 30s depression  State planning and organisation need to fulfil the role  Capital came from USA  The equivalent of £200 billion of today’s money lent by US government  State control, regulation and borrowed finance was made in the common good Industry subject to state control during the WWII 2
  • 3.  Was a key policy of the Independent Labour Movement  Success in transforming Soviet Union meant it had affinity with some sections of working class  One of Labour’s key 45 demands  Industry in the service of the nation -  Houses for the people  Price controls on food & building materials  NHS  Cradle to grave welfare state  War dividend Nationalisation and the UK labour movement 3
  • 4.  At the end of the war apart from the USA & UK most of the world’s industrial capacity had been raised to the ground or dismantled  UK had to help meet the supply of manufactured goods to meet the world demand  little private capital after 30s & war  Private industry fragmented  Nationalisation provided subsidised:  Materials, energy, transport and infrastructure  By 1952 the UK was producing 25.4% of the world’s manufactured goods  How did it fall to 2.9% by 2009? 1945 UK industry had to be state controlled & funded 4
  • 5. Coal  Utilities  Gas  Steel  Transport  Only steel renationalised by Tories but nationalised again in 1967 to subsidise materials to industry  Later wave of nationalisations to deal with crisis of 1970s Rolls Royce British Leyland British Aerospace British Shipbuilding What was nationalised and what was reversed by Tories? 5
  • 6.  Rest of the world builds up it’s industry with more investment and lower wages  UK industry profitability falls from 16.5% in 1950 -54 to 9.7% in 1970 on lack of investment  Economist coined the classic phrase “Profits first. Investment later” The UK losses it’s lead as the world catches up 6
  • 7. • a 30 year period of global expansion ends abruptly in 1974 • Over production of goods • Over accumulation of profits • Falling rate of profits • And mass over capacity • Led by the car, shipbuilding and aerospace industries • Labour tries to save failing industries by nationalisation • But capitalism needs to reduce capacity and increase profits rates to compete with rest of world • Enter Thatcher The end of the boom 7
  • 8. • privatise • New owners will rationalise and return rate of profit • The did the latter but not the former • Rate of profit never competitive because of low investment and higher wage rates • Manufacturing has flown East where there are higher rates of profit Thatcher’s solution 8
  • 9.  Not on the basis of competition on the world market  But on the basis of meeting the common good  Cheap or free integrated public transport  Socially affordable sustainable housing  Cheap renewable energy  Any economy needs these to function  they would use some of the potential of our some 5 million unemployed adults and young  Through a national investment bank instead of bank bail outs  A fair redistributive tax system instead of austerity  Take oil under public ownership and control  Close tax avoidance  Generate demand in the economy to create jobs in the private sector Can UK industry be rebuilt? 9
  • 10. Unlike Soviet & 1945 model People’s industries would genuinely serve the democratically decided needs of whole population The industries would be participative and run by the people that work in them to meet the needs of the whole population  they would be protected from private competition Industry under common control & common planning 10