In-depth report on the mid-term global oil market scenario, published November 2011

1. 10 November 2011
HIGHLIGHTS
• The Euro zone debt crisis influenced market sentiment in October and
early November although ultimately fundamentals reasserted
themselves. Futures prices for benchmark crudes diverged in October,
with WTI on a solid upward trend while Brent eased. At writing, Brent
traded around $114/bbl, with WTI at $96/bbl.
• Forecast global oil demand is revised down by 70 kb/d for 2011 and by
20 kb/d for 2012, with lower‐than‐expected 3Q11 readings in the US,
China and Japan. Gasoil continues to provide the greatest impetus for
demand growth. Global oil demand is expected to rise to 89.2 mb/d in
2011 (+0.9 mb/d y‐o‐y) and reach 90.5 mb/d (+1.3 mb/d) in 2012.
• Global oil supply rose by 1.0 mb/d to 89.3 mb/d in October from
September, driven by recovering non‐OPEC output. A yearly comparison
shows similar growth, with OPEC supplies well above year‐ago levels.
Non‐OPEC supply growth averages 0.1 mb/d in 2011 but rebounds to
1.1 mb/d in 2012, with strong gains from the Americas.
• OPEC supply rose by 95 kb/d to 30.01 mb/d in October, with higher
output from Libya, Saudi Arabia and Angola, partially offset by lower
output from other members. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’
for 2011 is largely unchanged at 30.5 mb/d, while higher non‐OPEC
supply leads to a 0.2 mb/d downward adjustment for 2012 to 30.4 mb/d.
• Global refinery crude throughputs fell sharply in September, as planned
and unplanned shutdowns amplified the normal seasonal downturn.
Following significant refinery outages and apparent delays in starting up
new capacity in Asia, 3Q11 global runs have been lowered by 30 kb/d,
to 75.5 mb/d, while 4Q11 runs are revised down 260 kb/d, to 75.1 mb/d.
• OECD industry oil stocks declined by 11.8 mb to 2 684 mb in
September, led lower by crude, plus lesser declines in middle distillates
and fuel oil. Inventories stood below the five‐year average for a third
consecutive month, a first since 2004. September forward demand cover
dropped to 57.9 days, from 58.6 days in August. October preliminary
data point to a 34.3 mb draw in OECD industry stocks.

2. 10 November 2011
OMR PUBLISHING SCHEDULE – 2012
Please find below the 2012 release dates for the Oil Market Report:
Wednesday 18 January
Friday 10 February
Wednesday 14 March
Thursday 12 April
Friday 11 May
Wednesday 13 June
Thursday 12 July*
Friday 10 August
Wednesday 12 September
Friday 12 October**
Tuesday 13 November
Wednesday 12 December
This information is also available at: oilmarketreport.org/schedule and
omrpublic.iea.org/schedule.
*The OMR of 12 July will contain projections through end‐2013.
**The 2012 Edition of the Medium‐Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) will be
released on the same date as the OMR of 12 October 2012. The OMR of this date
will comprise the usual data and projections through end‐2013, but with heavily
abridged text.

3. TABLE OF CONTENTS
HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1
DISTILLATES, DERIVATIVES & DOWNSIDE RISK ............................................................................................................................................ 4
DEMAND ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
Global Overview ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
OECD ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7
North America................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
Europe.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil .......................................................................................................................................... 10
Pacific.................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11
Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12
China .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13
Other Non-OECD .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 14
SUPPLY ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16
OPEC Crude Oil Supply ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 17
Libyan Production Outpaces Forecast ....................................................................................................................................................... 19
Non-OPEC Overview .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
OECD ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
North America................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
Eagle Ford and Bakken Bonanza to Transform US Oil Production Outlook ............................................................................. 22
North Sea .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Revisions to IEA’s Norway Field Level Data Allow for Better Forecasting ................................................................................ 24
Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 25
Asia ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25
Middle East ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 26
Former Soviet Union (FSU) .......................................................................................................................................................................... 26
Africa .................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 27
Latin America ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
OECD STOCKS ......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 28
OECD Inventories at End-September and Revisions to Preliminary Data .................................................................................... 28
Analysis of Recent OECD Industry Stock Changes ...................................................................................................................................... 30
OECD North America................................................................................................................................................................................... 30
OECD Europe .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
OECD Pacific.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Recent Developments in China and Singapore Stocks ................................................................................................................................. 32
PRICES .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Market Overview .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 34
Futures Markets .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Rescuing Commodities from Speculators? ................................................................................................................................................ 39
Spot Crude Oil Prices .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Spot Product Prices .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 42
Refining Margins .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
End-User Product Prices in October ............................................................................................................................................................... 45
Freight ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45
REFINING .................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 47
Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 47
Global Refinery Throughput ............................................................................................................................................................................... 47
OECD Refinery Throughput .............................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Non-OECD Refinery Throughput .................................................................................................................................................................... 51
OECD Refinery Yields ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 54
TABLES ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 55

4. M ARKET O VERVIEW I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT
DISTILLATES, DERIVATIVES & DOWNSIDE RISK
October was a better month for beleaguered OECD refiners, largely due to stronger diesel cracks. As
noted before, clean middle distillate markets will remain a driver of crude and product prices in future
too. In the mature OECD markets, jet fuel and diesel represent the only durable source of demand
growth, albeit driven in Europe by preferential diesel taxes. This month’s report also suggests that rising
light tight oil supply and logistical bottlenecks around Cushing are, at the margin, boosting road and rail
shipments and thus US diesel demand. Impending changes in bunker quality will generate a new market
for middle distillates at fuel oil’s expense. In the emerging economies, rising personal mobility and
growing freight traffic are largely fuelled by diesel. And, as seen last winter, when non‐oil fired power
generation bottlenecks emerge in China and elsewhere, industrial and domestic consumers turn to diesel
generators to fill the gap. Short‐term demand surges of several hundred thousand b/d can result.
When products, and clean middle distillates in particular, are in tight supply, crude prices can be driven
sharply higher. Part of the 2007/early‐2008 crude price surge resulted from tightness in clean diesel
supplies. With over 50% of future demand growth deriving from middle distillates, refinery supply of
these products may be as important as OPEC quotas or upstream investment in setting market dynamics.
OECD Middle Distillate Stocks Middle Distillates Driving Demand Trends
days Global Y-o-Y Demand Growth
Days of Forward Demand kb/d
40 3000
38 2000
36
1000
34
32 0
30
-1000
28
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan -2000
Range 2006-2010 Avg 2006-2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2010 2011 Mid Dist Other oil
Middle distillates may be pervasive in the market right now, but middle ground among policy makers in
Washington rather less so. Upcoming decisions affecting new pipeline capacity to the Gulf Coast are
likely to be contentious, while October also saw a split vote among CFTC Commissioners narrowly favour
the adoption of further position limits for commodity derivatives. It remains difficult to tread the fine line
between ensuring market diversity, preventing manipulation and minimising systemic risk on the one
hand, while sustaining economic hedging opportunities, preserving market liquidity and preventing
unintended outcomes for price volatility on the other. The debate on market regulation will continue,
and a joint IEA‐IEF‐OPEC Vienna workshop on 29 November will again examine some of the issues.
To end on market fundamentals, this month’s report sees an underlying ‘call on OPEC crude and stock
change’ averaging 30.4 mb/d for the rest of 2011 and 2012, just above recent OPEC output. Considering
this and tightening OECD stocks, a fundamentals underpinning for stubbornly high prices is clear. And
although demand estimates are shrouded in economic uncertainty for 2012, so perennial supply risks
also need acknowledging. The combination of Libya and extensive non‐OPEC supply outages may make
2011 an outlier. Resurgent, +1 mb/d non‐OPEC supply and over 400 kb/d of extra OPEC NGLs should
cover demand growth in 2012. But don’t forget that the US Gulf largely avoided hurricane outages in
2011, that the Arab winter could well prove as turbulent as the Arab spring and, not least, that the
Iranian nuclear issue is again rising among market concerns. Single‐point projections are invaluable, but
only with the caveats that are provided by recognising the more extreme supply and demand side risks.
4 10 N OVEMBER 2011

5. I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT D EMAND
DEMAND
Summary
• Forecast global oil demand is revised down by 70 kb/d for 2011 and by 20 kb/d for 2012, with lower‐
than‐expected 3Q11 readings in the US, China and Japan. Stronger‐than‐expected demand in Korea,
India and Brazil provide some offsetting support, with overall demand growth largely supported by
gasoil. Global oil demand is expected to rise to 89.2 mb/d in 2011 (+1.0% or +0.9 mb/d y‐o‐y) and
reach 90.5 mb/d (+1.5% or +1.3 mb/d) in 2012.
Global Oil Demand (2010-2012)
(millio n barrels per day)
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012
Africa 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5
Americas 29.5 30.0 30.5 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.8 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.8 30.3 30.3 30.1
Asia/Pacific 27.2 26.9 26.7 28.3 27.3 28.6 27.4 27.5 29.0 28.1 29.6 28.6 28.3 29.5 29.0
Europe 15.0 14.9 15.6 15.5 15.3 14.9 14.8 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.7 14.6 15.3 15.2 15.0
FSU 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.7
Middle East 7.4 7.8 8.3 7.7 7.8 7.6 8.0 8.3 7.8 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.0 8.2
World 86.8 87.4 89.0 89.8 88.3 88.9 87.9 89.6 90.2 89.2 90.2 89.4 90.9 91.4 90.5
Annual Chg (%) 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.5
Annual Chg (mb/d) 2.2 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3
Changes from last OMR (mb/d) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 -0.06 -0.20 -0.03 -0.07 -0.02 -0.04 -0.05 0.04 -0.02
• Projected OECD demand for 2011 is now 45.8 mb/d (‐0.8% or ‐380 kb/d) for 2011 and 45.5 mb/d
(‐0.5% or ‐220 kb/d) for 2012. Demand has been revised down by 60 kb/d this year and by 20 kb/d
next year, led by downward adjustments to the US and Japan. Nonetheless, European demand was
broadly unchanged and oil‐fired power generation in Japan is expected to rise in coming months.
• Estimated non‐OECD oil demand for 2011 and 2012 is now seen at 43.4 mb/d (+3.0% or +1.3 mb/d)
and 44.9 mb/d (+3.5% or +1.5 mb/d), respectively. Recent Chinese data have come in lower than
expected, but higher readings from India and Latin America offered a partial offset. Overall revisions
were marginal, with 2011 adjusted down by 10 kb/d and 2012 left unchanged.
• An economic sensitivity analysis, with GDP growth one‐third lower than in our base case, would cut
0.2 mb/d from expected 2011 oil demand and 1.2 mb/d from the 2012 projection, effectively
curbing global annual demand growth to 0.7 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively.
Global Overview
Amid continued economic uncertainty and sustained high oil prices, we have revised down global oil
demand versus last month’s report. Our base case global economic growth assumptions remain steady
at 3.8% for 2011 and 3.9% for 2012, but 3Q11 demand readings have come in weaker than expected.
Indeed, we estimate global demand in September, albeit based on preliminary data, as flat compared to
the same month in 2010. This follows growth of 1.4% in August. If this result holds, it would signal the
weakest monthly demand growth since October 2009. Nevertheless, the forecast revisions are moderate
overall; we have cut 2011 by 70 kb/d and lowered 2012 by only 20 kb/d, with an upward baseline
revision to 2010 of 20 kb/d, primarily due to Syria, providing some offset.
The short‐term oil demand picture remains cautious but stable. Recent weaker‐than‐expected data for
China, the US and Japan, led to combined downward revisions in September of 670 kb/d. Russian gasoil
demand has eased from its recent soaring heights, and baseline revisions have reduced Kuwait’s
consumption. Although JODI data have yet to show dents in Thailand’s consumption, recent widespread
flooding may signal future downward adjustments there. As such, global growth should remain tepid
over the next few months, with average annual increases of 0.5% expected in 4Q11. Nevertheless, this
10 N OVEMBER 2011 5

6. D EMAND I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT
annual comparison needs to be seen in context. For one, demand in 4Q10 grew exceptionally, by +3.4%
(3.0 mb/d), a strong comparison baseline. Real power sector requirements in Japan suggest increased
oil‐burning there in the coming months and potential needs for diesel generators in China also lend
upside risks, though gasoil there is not expected to grow at the pace of 4Q10’s expansion. Moreover, the
global consumption picture still appears broadly supportive, with annual European demand expectations
unchanged and Korea, India and Brazil Oil Demand Sensitivity
growing stronger than expected. Robust (millio n barrels per day)
2010 2011 2012 2011 vs. 2010 2012 vs. 2011
gasoil continues to underpin product % m b/d % m b/d
demand in many countries. Leading Base GDP
indicators point to economic caution, but Global GDP (y-o-y chg) 5.0% 3.8% 3.9%
OECD 46.2 45.8 45.5 -0.8% -0.38 -0.5% -0.22
gasoil strength may signify lingering
Non-OECD 42.1 43.4 44.9 3.0% 1.28 3.5% 1.53
industrial strength in some markets, World 88.3 89.2 90.5 1.0% 0.90 1.5% 1.31
particularly the US. Low er GDP
Global GDP (y-o-y chg) 5.0% 2.6% 2.6%
As we habitually note, the demand OECD 46.2 45.7 45.2 -0.9% -0.42 -1.1% -0.50
Non-OECD 42.1 43.2 44.0 2.6% 1.11 1.8% 0.80
picture could sour significantly should
World 88.3 89.0 89.3 0.8% 0.69 0.3% 0.30
economic prospects falter. Our
sensitivity analysis provides an indicative view with GDP growth one‐third lower than the base case.
Under such conditions, global oil demand would be reduced versus our base case by 0.2 mb/d for 2011
and by 1.2 mb/d for 2012, with annual growth at 0.7 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively. As previously, we
assume that the more income elastic developing economies would feel this impact most intensely.
Gasoil Demand, Actual & F'Cast
Y-o-Y
World: Total Oil Product Demand mb/d
% Chg 14.0 27.5
6 13.5 27.0
4 13.0 26.5
2 26.0
12.5
25.5
- 12.0
25.0
(2) 11.5 24.5
(4) 11.0 24.0
(6) 10.5 23.5
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11
2008 2009 2010 2011 OECD Non-OECD World (RHS)
Global Oil Demand Growth 2010/2011/2012
thousand barrels per day
North America Europe
464
FSU
288
194
-112 -120 54
-174 1400
Asia
Middle East
-115 287 240 857 860
118
-249
Latin America
305 174
188 212 Africa
60 Global Demand Growth
(mb/d)
-35 2010 2.69 3.1%
2011 0.90 1.0%
2012 1.31 1.5%
6 10 N OVEMBER 2011

7. I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT D EMAND
OECD
According to preliminary data, OECD inland deliveries (oil products supplied by refineries, pipelines and
terminals) fell by 2.2% year‐on‐year in September, with all three regions posting declines. All products
fell year‐on‐year except for diesel (+2.0%) and residual fuel oil (+1.6%), amid strength from North
America and the Pacific, respectively.
m b/d OECD: Total Oil Product Demand OECD: Demand by Driver, Y-o-Y Chg
52 Transport Heating
m b/d Pow er Gen. Other
Total Dem .
1.0
49
0.5
-
46
(0.5)
(1.0)
43 (1.5)
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
(2.0)
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revisions to August preliminary data, at ‐190 kb/d, stemmed largely from the US (‐260 kb/d) and Japan
(‐150 kb/d), which outweighed upward adjustments to Turkey (+130 kb/d) and Germany (+60 kb/d). In
the US, downward revisions were concentrated in residual fuel, ‘other products’ and gasoline.
Downward adjustments to ‘other products’ (which includes direct crude burn) led the revision in Japan.
Yet, as noted last month, given volatility in deliveries and the strength of preliminary September data,
there is little evidence to suggest a retrenchment in Japanese oil‐fired power generation. Meanwhile,
gasoil in Turkey and naphtha in Korea have continued to surprise to the upside.
Overall, OECD demand declined by only 0.2% year‐on‐year in August versus ‐2.3% in July. September
preliminary data, however, suggest a weaker picture, with consumption declining by 2.2% year‐on‐year.
Japan, in particular, appears to be contributing to the weaker‐than‐expected September data. While oil
burning in power generation remains strong, downward adjustments to all other product categories may
indicate some slowing in the recovery effect after March’s earthquake and tsunami. We have continued
to revise down the annual OECD demand picture, but only moderately, with downward adjustments of
60 kb/d in 2011 and 20 kb/d in 2012. Our outlook sees OECD demand declining by 0.8% (‐380 kb/d) to
45.8 mb/d in 2011 and falling by 0.5% (‐220 kb/d) in 2012.
OECD Demand based on Adjusted Preliminary Submissions - September 2011
(millio n barrels per day)
Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel Other Gasoil RFO Other Total Products
mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa mb/d % pa
OECD North Am erica* 10.32 -3.5 1.63 -2.2 4.19 5.4 0.80 -15.3 0.91 2.4 5.55 -5.03 23.40 -2.6
US50 8.73 -4.2 1.43 -2.1 3.61 5.6 0.33 -29.8 0.53 4.2 4.21 -5.6 18.85 -3.0
Canada 0.76 -0.9 0.11 -10.4 0.23 -2.3 0.31 -5.2 0.09 2.4 0.73 -0.1 2.22 -1.8
Mexico 0.78 1.0 0.05 14.3 0.32 9.8 0.14 9.8 0.21 -1.4 0.56 -6.8 2.06 0.5
OECD Europe 2.22 -4.5 1.37 0.0 4.55 -1.1 1.84 -4.2 1.26 -3.3 3.80 -1.4 15.04 -2.2
Germany 0.48 -3.0 0.20 0.0 0.70 -5.5 0.52 -6.8 0.13 -16.9 0.64 2.2 2.67 -3.9
United Kingdom 0.34 -5.8 0.32 -4.5 0.46 -0.1 0.14 6.8 0.06 6.9 0.28 -0.2 1.61 -1.5
France 0.18 -5.9 0.17 4.5 0.73 0.2 0.32 -6.7 0.08 1.1 0.46 -1.9 1.94 -1.7
Italy 0.24 -5.1 0.11 -3.3 0.53 0.4 0.11 -9.9 0.12 -0.5 0.45 -5.8 1.55 -3.4
Spain 0.13 -6.8 0.14 13.9 0.47 -2.4 0.14 -12.2 0.19 -2.8 0.31 -5.3 1.38 -3.3
OECD Pacific 1.54 -3.6 0.65 -6.9 1.10 2.2 0.45 -9.8 0.81 9.2 3.08 -1.4 7.64 -1.4
Japan 0.98 -5.8 0.34 -16.5 0.41 -7.2 0.34 -16.1 0.51 17.9 1.69 -3.3 4.26 -4.5
Korea 0.20 1.0 0.16 6.7 0.28 10.4 0.12 13.2 0.27 -4.1 1.21 1.9 2.24 2.9
Australia 0.31 -0.3 0.13 4.2 0.36 7.2 0.00 0.0 0.02 5.7 0.17 -0.6 0.99 3.0
OECD Total 14.08 -3.7 3.64 -2.3 9.85 2.0 3.10 -8.1 2.98 1.6 12.43 -3.1 46.08 -2.2
* Including US territo ries
10 N OVEMBER 2011 7

8. D EMAND I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT
North America
Preliminary data show oil product demand in North America (including US territories) falling by 2.6%
year‐on‐year in September, following a 1.5% decrease in August. Declines were led by gasoline (‐3.5%),
heating oil (‐15.3%) and naphtha (‐17.0%). Diesel (+5.4%) continued to post strong readings, amid still‐
positive industrial indicators. US GDP grew at an annualised 2.5% in 3Q11, suggesting a degree of
economic stability amid recent pessimistic headlines. Our assumptions for US and North American GDP
growth in 2012 remain at 1.8% and 2.0%, respectively. Still, preliminary October readings for the US have
come in lower than expected. Going into November, an early blizzard in the US Northeast may help
temporarily boost heating oil demand, but travel disruptions may further depress gasoline.
OECD North America: OECD North America: Demand by
m b/d
Total Oil Product Demand Driver, Y-o-Y Chg
27 Transport Heating
m b/d Pow er Gen. Other
26 Total Dem .
0.5
25
-
24
(0.5)
23
(1.0)
22
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan (1.5)
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Revisions to August data averaged ‐200 kb/d and were driven by the US (‐260 kb/d). Residual fuel oil
(‐130 kb/d), other products (‐130 kb/d) and gasoline (‐50 kb/d) were all lower, while gasoil (+50 kb/d)
provided some offset. Weekly‐to‐monthly gasoil revisions in the US continue to be difficult to anticipate,
with adjustments alternating between positive and negative over the past four months; by contrast,
gasoline adjustments to weekly data have been consistently negative.
Adjusted preliminary weekly data for the United States (excluding territories) up to the 28th of October,
which would exclude the unseasonably early winter storm, indicate that inland deliveries – a proxy of oil
product demand‐ declined by 1.7% year‐on‐year in October, following a 3.0% fall in September. October
data featured a sharp year‐on‐year decline in residual fuel (‐36.5%) amid mild autumn temperatures.
Gasoline demand declined by an estimated 4.9%, suggesting that passenger travel has continued to
deteriorate even with retail prices around $3.40/gallon at month‐end, some 15% below price highs
reached in May, but 25% above prior‐year levels.
kb/d US50 Monthly Revisions: kb/d US50: Residual Fuel Oil Demand
MOS vs EIA Weekly 1,000
500 900
300 800
100 700
(100) 600
(300)
500
(500)
400
(700)
(900) 300
Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Gasoline Gasoil Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011
Meanwhile, gasoil demand appears to have strengthened in October, growing at an estimated 13.6%.
Such a strong rate should be viewed cautiously; it may indeed stem from both methodological and
economic factors. Our growth assessment, which adjusts weekly data for prior weekly‐to‐monthly
8 10 N OVEMBER 2011

9. I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT D EMAND
revisions, may be producing an inflated result compared to a seasonally low October 2010. Moreover,
diesel indicators, while still strong, suggest that year‐on‐year growth may be somewhat less robust. US
intermodal rail traffic from the Association of American Railroads rose 3.6% year‐on‐year in October and
the latest truck tonnage index from the American Trucking Association in September showed growth of
5.8% year‐on‐year.
kb/d US50: Gasoil Demand kb/d Mexico: Motor Gasoline Demand
4,700 850
4,500
4,300 800
4,100
750
3,900
3,700 700
3,500
3,300 650
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2010 2011
Mexico’s oil demand grew by 0.5% in September with positive readings coming from jet fuel/kerosene
(+14.3%) and gasoil (+9.8%) partly offset by weak readings of residual fuel and naphtha. Mexico’s air
travel activity has recovered from last year’s lows as other carriers have stepped‐in to cover routes once
flown by bankrupt Mexicana. Gasoil demand strength has continued to benefit from strong industrial
activity, though leading indicators suggest that manufacturing may moderate over the next six months.
Europe
Preliminary estimates of European demand in September point to a 2.2% year‐on‐year decline, with
naphtha (‐4.6%), motor gasoline (‐4.5%) and heating oil (‐4.2%) performing poorly. September’s gasoline
contraction implies a combination of fuel switching and simple economising, as new car registrations
continued to rise, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, up 0.6% in
September after August’s 7.7% gain. Considering the declining nature of the European demand picture,
jet/kerosene’s steadiness (flat compared to 2010) has been another positive, with the International Air
Transport Association reporting a 9.2% gain in European airline traffic flows this September. Moreover,
revisions to August preliminary data were positive, at 160 kb/d, largely due to stronger‐than‐anticipated
diesel and heating oil; a downward baseline revision to Norwegian LPG provided a partial offset. Our
forecast remains largely unchanged, with demand averaging 14.4 mb/d in 2011 and 14.3 mb/d in 2012.
OECD Europe: OECD Europe: Demand by Driver,
m b/d
Total Oil Product Demand Y-o-Y Chg
16.5 Transport Heating
16.0 m b/d Pow er Gen. Other
Total Dem .
15.5 0.2
15.0 -
14.5 (0.2)
14.0 (0.4)
13.5 (0.6)
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
(0.8)
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Still, the two‐tier nature of the European oil demand picture remains – with the more northerly
European nations seeing stronger demand than their more heavily indebted Mediterranean brethren –
10 N OVEMBER 2011 9

10. D EMAND I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT
albeit the gap appears to be narrowing, with the general economic gloom spreading north. Germany and
France saw sub‐50 purchasing managers’ indices in October, at 49.1 and 49.0 respectively. Having
enjoyed strong growth in August, above 3.5%, preliminary estimates for French oil demand in September
point towards a return to its long‐run declining trend, down 1.7% on the corresponding period last year.
The gasoline market in France was particularly sluggish, down 5.9%. Early estimates for September imply
year‐on‐year declines across the continent, with neither Germany (‐3.9%), Spain (‐3.3%), nor Italy
(‐3.4%) escaping the malaise. Still, German heating oil demand continued to rise on a seasonal basis.
kb/d France: Motor Gasoline Demand kb/d Germany: Heating Oil Demand
280 800
260 700
240 600
220 500
200 400
180 300
160 200
140 100
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
5-year avg 2010 2011
2010 2011
August data for the UK showed a decline of 1.5% year‐on‐year, led by gasoline (‐4.7%) with potentially
weaker readings ahead. The UK purchasing managers’ index for October fell to 47.4 from September’s
50.8 reading. Not only is the reading a 28‐month low for this index but its decline below the key
50 threshold effectively signals a contraction. Nevertheless, European demand supports persist.
September preliminary data indicate Poland grew by 0.5%, following 6.9% growth in August. Turkey’s
demand also continues to surprise to the upside, led by gasoil, though its growth rate (+20.8% in August
versus the prior year) may be unsustainably high.
The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil
While autumn prevails in the calendar, a late October blizzard in the US Northeast serves as a reminder of
the approaching winter heating season in the OECD. Oil market players often greet cold winter weather
surges with excitement, in anticipation of upward revisions to heating oil consumption above forecasted
seasonal rises. In exceptional cases where impairment to the power sector prompts a widespread rollout of
diesel generators, the uptick to oil demand could be significant. However, as elaborated previously (see
Watching the Mercury, OMR dated 10 December 2010), the real upside of many cold shocks on anticipated
demand often falls short of headlines over the course of a winter, given uncertainties over the duration of
colder‐than‐normal weather and structurally declining OECD oil use for heating and power generation.
A simple, top‐down examination of OECD heating oil demand during winters (October‐March) over the last
decade suggests that original forecast estimates have been prone to sharp swings, with changing economic
conditions and distillate categorisation likely playing a larger role than the weather. It appears for the five
coldest winters during that period, final heating oil demand has come in roughly between ‐100 kb/d to
+300 kb/d versus our original forecast. During these winters, heating‐degree days (HDDs) averaged 5‐to‐15%
higher than the prevailing 10‐year average. During last year’s winter (2010‐2011) heating oil demand was
revised up by 160 kb/d versus the original forecast with HDDs 6% above normal. Still with the economy
recovering from recession at that time, the demand upside attributable solely to weather was probably less.
Indeed, given structural inter‐fuel substitution, the weather impact on OECD oil use continues to slowly
recede over time. Ongoing changes in the US are illustrative of this trend. Demand for heating oil has fallen
as less homes use oil as their chief source of heat, while those still doing so have become more efficient
consumers. The US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Residential Energy Consumption Survey
indicates that in 2009 only 6.3% of US homes were dependent upon heating oil to heat their homes, down
from 6.6% in 2005 and 7.6% in 2001. Most of these households are located in the US Northeast, where
heating oil accounts for about 27% of space heating. Since 2003, the number of heating oil households in the
10 10 N OVEMBER 2011

11. I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT D EMAND
The Winter That Cries Wolf for Heating Oil (continued)
US Northeast has fallen by 20%, with over half of the decline due to increased natural gas penetration, a
trend that is likely to continue as natural gas maintains an advantageous price gap over oil products.
US Northeast: Households by Primary US50: Gasoil Demand, mb/d
Million
Heating Source, Winter Period 3.6 12-m roll avg 1.4
11
1.2
10 3.3 1.0
9
Natural gas 0.8
3.0
8 0.6
Heating oil
7 2.7 0.4
6 0.2
2.4 0.0
5
2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011/12 Jan 00 Jul 02 Jan 05 Jul 07 Jan 10
Source: EIA; 2011/2012 is EIA projection
Diesel Heating & Other Gasoil (RHS)
Still, gauging the demand impact of substitution is difficult given ongoing challenges in characterising gasoil
consumption by use. Evolving fuel quality specifications and changing consumption patterns have blurred
the distinction between ‘Transport Diesel’ (defined as on‐road diesel) and ‘Heating and Other Gasoil’
(heating oil for industrial/commercial uses, marine diesel, rail diesel and other uses, irrespective of sulphur
content) in monthly data submitted to the IEA. In the US, dramatic changes in heating oil demand in recent
years may stem as much from data classification issues as from economics, weather and inter‐fuel
substitution. With several states in the US Northeast planning to reduce sulphur in heating oil to that of low‐
sulphur diesel in the next few years, the picture may become even more muddled going forward.
Data classification issues notwithstanding, we would caution that any impending cold snap during the
coming winter may have less impact on OECD heating oil demand over the course of a winter than many
commentators think. This contrasts with developments in emerging markets, particularly China, where a
combination of weather, government policy and non‐oil generation shortages can induce huge short‐term
swings in gasoil demand of several hundred thousand barrels per day in magnitude.
Pacific
Preliminary data indicate that Pacific oil product demand declined by 1.4% year‐on‐year in September,
led by LPG, jet fuel/kerosene and gasoline. Revisions to August preliminary data, at ‐140 kb/d, stemmed
mostly from lower ‘other products’ in Japan. Still, the outlook for crude and fuel oil burning in Japan has
improved, while petrochemical activity in Korea has acted as a near‐term support. In contrast, weaker
readings across other product categories suggest that the recovery effect after Japan’s earthquake and
tsunami in March may be waning. We have revised down 2011 demand by 30 kb/d to 7.9 mb/d (+0.7% or
50 kb/d y‐o‐y) while leaving 2012 unchanged at the same level (+0.3% or 20 kb/d y‐o‐y).
OECD Pacific: OECD Pacific: Demand by Driver,
m b/d
Total Oil Product Demand Y-o-Y Chg
10.0 Transport Heating
9.5 m b/d Pow er Gen. Other
9.0 Total Dem .
0.2
8.5 0.1
8.0
-
7.5
(0.1)
7.0
(0.2)
6.5
(0.3)
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
(0.4)
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10 N OVEMBER 2011 11

12. D EMAND I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT
In Japan, oil demand declined by 4.5% year‐on‐year in September, with all categories, bar ‘other
products’, which include crude direct burn, and residual fuel oil, posting declines. Jet fuel/kerosene
(‐16.5%) and gasoil (‐11.4%) posted the steepest falls. Due to higher assessed needs for power
generation, the outlook for ‘other products’ and residual fuel oil has been raised by a modest 10 kb/d for
2012. Our base case profile for nuclear power generation continues to see a recovery starting in spring
2012, though at a slightly slower pace versus the previous assessment. Oil burning needs in 2012 are
forecast to add 290 kb/d to ‘normal’ levels (around 200 kb/d). To be sure, the nuclear policy debate in
Japan continues. In the less likely event that no nuclear power returns in 2012, incremental oil burn
needs versus normal would stand at 460 kb/d next year.
kb/d
Japan : Oil Consumption (Crude + kb/d Korea: Naphtha Demand
Fuel Oil) for Power Generation* 1,050
800
*Main Utilities; Source: FEPC, IEA
950
600
400 850
200 750
0 650
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
2007 2008 2009 Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2010 2011
In Korea, demand rose by 2.9% in September. Despite indications of generally weak petrochemical
activity in Asia, naphtha demand continued to hold up, growing by 7.3% year‐on‐year. Still, expectations
are for moderating growth rates through 2012, with naphtha demand growth forecast to fall below 3% in
the fourth quarter of 2011 and demand remaining relatively steady in 2012. Korean diesel demand
(+10.4%) posted strong gains while gasoline grew moderately (+1.0%) in September, in contrast to the
declining motor fuel picture in many other OECD countries.
Non-OECD
Preliminary demand data indicate that non‐OECD oil demand grew by 2.4% year‐on‐year (+1.0 mb/d) in
September, down from 3.1% growth in August. Chinese apparent demand growth was markedly slower,
though questions persist over the true weakness of underlying consumption. Russian demand,
particularly in gasoil, also slowed from its torrid pace during the previous four months. Still, the overall
demand picture remained supportive, with India’s growth rate notably picking up.
m b/d Non-OECD: Total Oil Product Demand m b/d Non-OECD: Gasoil Demand
46 14.0
13.5
44
13.0
42 12.5
40 12.0
38 11.5
11.0
36 10.5
34 10.0
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2010 2011
12 10 N OVEMBER 2011

13. I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT D EMAND
Non-OECD: Demand by Product
(tho usand barrels per day)
D e m a nd A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d) A nnua l C hg ( %)
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
LPG & Ethane 4,911 4,971 5,025 224 216 4.7 4.5
Naphtha 2,631 2,608 2,664 -19 21 -0.7 0.8
Motor Gasoline 8,478 8,499 8,464 410 275 5.1 3.4
Jet Fuel & Kerosene 2,751 2,774 2,795 66 87 2.4 3.2
Gas/Diesel Oil 13,488 13,484 13,398 563 480 4.4 3.7
Residual Fuel Oil 5,398 5,463 5,348 55 -171 1.0 -3.1
Other Products 6,050 5,921 5,944 35 108 0.6 1.9
Total Products 43,707 43,720 43,637 1,333
2.4 1,016 3.1
Total September demand is estimated at 43.6 mb/d, while August levels have been revised up by
210 kb/d to 43.7 mb/d (+1.3 mb/d year‐on‐year). Still, part of August’s upward revision included a boost
to Thailand, as reported via JODI data. With recent flooding dampening industrial output there, the
demand risk looking forward lies increasingly to the downside. The latest JODI update also included
sizeable revisions to Kuwaiti demand, resulting in the downward adjustment of our estimate there by
160 kb/d in June and by 110 kb/d in July (these revisions were smaller than the changes to the JODI
numbers themselves, given our previous adjustments for data points we believed to be too high).
Non-OECD: Demand by Region
(tho usand barrels per day)
D e m a nd A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d) A nnua l C hg ( %)
Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
Africa 3,300 3,253 3,297 -113 -72 -3.3 -2.1
Asia 19,932 19,717 19,934 889 596 4.7 3.1
FSU 4,748 5,026 4,783 396 142 8.6 3.1
Latin America 6,549 6,695 6,659 240 205 3.7 3.2
Middle East 8,492 8,300 8,246 -123 131 -1.5 1.6
Non-OECD Europe 687 728 718 44 13 6.4 1.9
Total Products 43,707 43,720 43,637 1,333 1,016 3.1 2.4
China
China’s monthly apparent demand (calculated as refinery output plus net product imports) rose by only
1.9% year‐on‐year in September as higher refinery runs were weighed down by lower net imports
compared to a year ago. Apparent demand in August was revised down marginally, by 20 kb/d, putting
growth for that month at 5.6%. September demand was led by year‐on‐year increases in gasoline
(+6.4%), jet/kerosene (+16.0%) and gasoil (+4.6%). Residual fuel oil (‐24.8%) posted a sharp fall, while
LPG continued to decline (‐1.5%). The monthly demand pattern fits with our view of moderating growth
rates over the next 18 months as the economy slows and particularly heading into 4Q11, which is not
expected to feature the almost 300 kb/d quarter‐on‐quarter gasoil increase that characterised 4Q10.
kb/d China: Residual Fuel Oil Demand m b/d China: Apparent Gasoil Demand
1,000 4.2
900
3.7
800
3.2
700
600 2.7
500 2.2
400 1.7
300 Jan 09 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan OMR Dem and
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg Adjusted for OGP/Xinhua Stock Changes
2010 2011 Adjusted for JODI Stock Changes
10 N OVEMBER 2011 13

14. D EMAND I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT
However, questions remain over the viability of Chinese consumption indicators. While our apparent
demand calculation implicitly includes stock changes, recent month product draws may be exacerbating
apparent demand weakness and could signal stockpiling ahead. September’s calculated inventory change
(see OECD Stocks section) suggests gasoil stocks may have drawn 8.9 mb, with Sinopec indicating a need
to replenish its holdings. Moreover, indicators again point to shortfalls in winter power generation,
which may incentivise higher‐than‐expected diesel use. Nevertheless, the economy has slowed on the
back of monetary tightening, with GDP growing at 9.1% in 3Q11. Notably, the official purchasing
managers’ index fell in October to a level only just in expansionary territory. Overall, our forecast for
2012 is revised down modestly, by 20 kb/d, though growth at 5.3% (+500 kb/d) remains robust.
China: Demand by Product
(tho usand barrels per day)
D e m a nd A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d) A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012
LPG & Ethane 668 680 699 13 18 1.9 2.7
Naphtha 1,129 1,184 1,241 56 56 4.9 4.8
Motor Gasoline 1,546 1,657 1,736 112 78 7.2 4.7
Jet Fuel & Kerosene 368 400 419 32 19 8.6 4.8
Gas/Diesel Oil 3,142 3,335 3,498 193 163 6.1 4.9
Residual Fuel Oil 531 532 539 0 8 0.1 1.5
Other Products 1,685 1,756 1,915 71 159 4.2 9.1
Total Products 9,069 9,544 10,047 476 502 5.2 5.3
Other Non-OECD
In India, oil demand rose by 6.7% year‐on‐year in September, faster than August’s 3.4% growth. Gasoil
(+9.8%), LPG (+10.2%) and naphtha (+18.5%) posted the largest gains, though residual fuel oil (‐20.2%)
and jet fuel/kerosene (‐2.5%) declined. Gasoline, which is priced higher than diesel and whose price rose
in September, still increased by 6.2% y‐o‐y while gasoil demand benefitted from coal‐fired power
shortfalls. Despite September’s strong growth, the Indian economy continues to show signs of slowing,
with both industrial output and auto sales moderating. Nevertheless, with a now higher 2011 baseline,
our forecast is revised up by 20 kb/d for 2012, with growth marginally higher at 3.7%.
India: Demand by Product
(tho usand barrels per day)
D e m a nd A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d) A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012
LPG & Ethane 455 495 525 40 30 8.8 6.1
Naphtha 201 207 198 6 -10 3.1 -4.7
Motor Gasoline 338 359 379 21 20 6.2 5.6
Jet Fuel & Kerosene 299 299 302 0 3 -0.1 1.1
Gas/Diesel Oil 1,290 1,364 1,435 74 71 5.7 5.2
Residual Fuel Oil 195 173 183 -21 10 -11.0 5.6
Other Products 559 564 568 5 4 0.9 0.7
Total Products 3,337 3,462 3,590 125 128 3.7 3.7
kb/d India: Gasoil Demand kb/d India: Jet Fuel & Kerosene Demand
1,600 340
1,500 330
1,400 320
1,300
310
1,200
300
1,100
1,000 290
900 280
800 270
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2010 2011
14 10 N OVEMBER 2011

15. I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT D EMAND
Demand growth in Russia eased from its previous lofty heights, rising 2.8% in September versus the prior
year. This deceleration comes after four‐months of average 10%+ growth. Slowing gasoil explains much
of the retrenchment, with demand declining slightly (‐0.3%) in September, and baseline demand revised
down slightly over the previous four months. Gasoline (+0.7%) also registered a notably slower growth
rate. Persistent strength in LPG (+4.5%) and ‘other products’ (+12.2%) continued to lend support to the
consumption picture.
Russia: Demand by Product
(tho usand barrels per day)
D e m a nd A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d) A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012
LPG & Ethane 493 514 531 22 16 4.4 3.2
Naphtha 289 286 292 -3 6 -1.0 1.9
Motor Gasoline 774 777 778 3 1 0.4 0.2
Jet Fuel & Kerosene 255 266 270 11 3 4.3 1.3
Gas/Diesel Oil 634 686 685 52 0 8.2 0.0
Residual Fuel Oil 291 300 282 8 -18 2.9 -6.0
Other Products 542 612 626 70 14 12.9 2.3
Total Products 3,278 3,441 3,464 163 23 5.0 0.7
Source: Petromarket RG, IEA
kb/d Russia: Gasoil Demand kb/d Brazil: Residual Fuel Oil Demand
900 220
210
810
200
720 190
630 180
170
540
160
S o urc e : P e t ro m a rk e t R G , IE A
450 150
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan
Range 2006-2010 5-year avg Range 2006-2010 5-year avg
2010 2011 2010 2011
In Brazil, product demand rose 3.2% year‐on‐year in August, led by jet fuel/kerosene (+8.6%), gasoil
(+7.3%) and LPG (+4.7%). Residual fuel oil (‐15.9%) continued to decline, displaced in the power sector by
increased gas and hydro supplies. Brazil’s industrial indicators have continued to soften; as such, gasoil
growth rates are expected to moderate through the end of the year. Gasoline demand growth, at 3.4%,
improved versus the 2.6% decline registered in July. As elaborated in last month’s issue, a reduction in
anhydrous alcohol blending from 1 October may have a neutral effect on overall motor gasoline demand,
while increasing petroleum based products requirements. Still, auto sales have been declining year‐on‐
year since July (by comparison, sales grew by 7% in 2010), suggesting potentially more moderate
gasoline growth rates ahead.
Brazil: Demand by Product
(tho usand barrels per day)
D e m a nd A nnua l C hg ( k b/ d) A nnua l C hg ( %)
2010 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012
LPG & Ethane 219 223 225 4 2 1.8 0.9
Naphtha 166 166 167 1 0 0.4 0.2
Motor Gasoline 792 817 843 25 26 3.1 3.2
Jet Fuel & Kerosene 110 121 132 11 10 10.2 8.4
Gas/Diesel Oil 886 924 958 38 34 4.2 3.7
Residual Fuel Oil 187 163 154 -24 -9 -12.6 -5.7
Other Products 374 380 384 6 4 1.6 1.2
Total Products 2,733 2,794 2,862 61 68 2.2 2.4
10 N OVEMBER 2011 15

16. S UPPLY I NTERNATIONAL E NERGY A GENCY ‐ O IL M ARKET R EPORT
SUPPLY
Summary
• Global oil supply rose by 1.1 mb/d to 89.3 mb/d in October from September, driven higher by
rebounding non‐OPEC output. Compared to a year ago, global oil production stood 1.2 mb/d higher,
70% of which stemmed in roughly equal shares from higher OPEC crude and NGLs production and
30% from increased non‐OPEC oil output.
• Non‐OPEC supply rose by 0.9 mb/d to 53.3 mb/d in October, largely due to the completion of
maintenance in the North Sea, as well as increased production in Brazil and North America.
Unplanned outages in China and the Middle East only modestly dented overall output. Compared to
last year, 4Q11 production should grow by around 300 kb/d to 53.4 mb/d. Annual non‐OPEC supply
growth now averages only 0.1 mb/d for 2011 but recovers to 1.1 mb/d for 2012.
• OPEC supply rose by 95 kb/d to 30.01 mb/d in October, with higher output by Libya, Saudi Arabia
and Angola partially offset by lower output from all other members. Libya continued to ramp‐up
crude production from 75 kb/d in September, to a monthly average of 350 kb/d in October and by
early November it was hovering around the 500 kb/d mark. OPEC NGLs supply averages 5.9 mb/d in
2011 and 6.3 mb/d for 2012, representing annual growth of 0.5 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d respectively.
• The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2011 is largely unchanged at 30.5 mb/d while a
further increase in non‐OPEC supplies results in a 0.2 mb/d downward adjustment in the 2012 call
to 30.4 mb/d. Meanwhile, estimated OPEC spare capacity for October stood at 3.58 mb/d versus
3.31 mb/d in September. OPEC spare capacity reached a 2011 low of 3.21 mb/d in June compared
with 4.74 mb/d prior to the Libyan crisis in January.
OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply
m b/d m b/d m b/d
Year-on-Year Change
62 31.0 3.5
3.0
60 30.5
2.5
58 30.0 2.0
56 29.5 1.5
54 29.0 1.0
0.5
52 28.5
0.0
50 28.0 -0.5
Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jul 10 Oct 10 Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Oct 11
Non-OP EC OP EC NGLs OP EC Crude Non-OP EC
OP EC Crude - RS OP EC NGLs Total Supply
All world oil supply figures for October discussed in this report are IEA estimates. Estimates for OPEC
countries, Alaska, and Russia are supported by preliminary October supply data.
Note: Random events present downside risk to the non‐OPEC production forecast contained in this report. These
events can include accidents, unplanned or unannounced maintenance, technical problems, labour strikes,
political unrest, guerrilla activity, wars and weather‐related supply losses. Specific allowance has been made in
the forecast for scheduled maintenance in all regions and for typical seasonal supply outages (including
hurricane‐related stoppages) in North America. In addition, from July 2007, a nationally allocated (but not field‐
specific) reliability adjustment has also been applied for the non‐OPEC forecast to reflect a historical tendency
for unexpected events to reduce actual supply compared with the initial forecast. This totals ‒200 kb/d for
non‐OPEC as a whole, with downward adjustments focused in the OECD.
16 10 N OVEMBER 2011