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TAX REFORM:TOUGH
BUT NECESSARY
By Dave Rocker ofThe Rocker Group LLC.
WASH POST: NEW CBO NUMBERS
OFFER DOSE OF REALITY
• “If current law remains in place, “federal debt
would reach an unprecedented share of GDP [in
30 years]…”
• “…reform should be deficit-neutral, lest short-
run benefits be swamped by long-run crowding-
out of investment by government borrowing, as
the CBO suggests.”
• “By refining incentives to work, invest and
produce, tax reform — especially corporate
reform aimed at improving global
competitiveness — could help remove structural
barriers to growth.”
• “…merely stabilizing the long-run debt at the current
elevated level, 77 percent of GDP, would require a
combination of tax increases or spending cuts equal to
nearly 2 percent of GDP per year, as compared with
what’s called for in current law, starting in 2018. In
dollar terms, the CBO notes, that would be a fiscal
adjustment of $380 billion next year — a huge political
challenge and impossible without trims to the middle-
class entitlement programs Mr. Trump has promised
not to touch.”
SO WHATTO DO?
• A Univ. of Maryland survey
suggests more Americans
want reform that raises
revenue over reform that
adds to the deficit.
• Trump wants to cut capital
gains and dividends to a rate
half that of ordinary salary
and wages. Only 15% of
Americans endorse the idea.
BORDER
ADJUSTMENT
TAX?
• House Republicans first floated
the idea.
• Taxes imports and rebate taxes
on exports.
• Could make up for money lost by
lowering corporate tax rate.
• Critics say the expense is passed
on to taxpayers who pay more
for goods and products.
TOUGH CHOICES
• Last major tax reform was in 1981,
but many of those changes were
only temporary.
• Interest groups and lobbyists put
immense pressure on lawmakers
not to negatively affect their
industry.
• Tax reform is like having a passion
for riding a motorcycle…you may
feel you need to get out and ride,
but it’s dangerous.Any misstep
could end in calamity.

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TAX REFORM REALITY CHECK: CBO NUMBERS OFFER DOSE OF REALITY ON DEFICIT IMPACT

  • 1. TAX REFORM:TOUGH BUT NECESSARY By Dave Rocker ofThe Rocker Group LLC.
  • 2. WASH POST: NEW CBO NUMBERS OFFER DOSE OF REALITY • “If current law remains in place, “federal debt would reach an unprecedented share of GDP [in 30 years]…” • “…reform should be deficit-neutral, lest short- run benefits be swamped by long-run crowding- out of investment by government borrowing, as the CBO suggests.” • “By refining incentives to work, invest and produce, tax reform — especially corporate reform aimed at improving global competitiveness — could help remove structural barriers to growth.”
  • 3. • “…merely stabilizing the long-run debt at the current elevated level, 77 percent of GDP, would require a combination of tax increases or spending cuts equal to nearly 2 percent of GDP per year, as compared with what’s called for in current law, starting in 2018. In dollar terms, the CBO notes, that would be a fiscal adjustment of $380 billion next year — a huge political challenge and impossible without trims to the middle- class entitlement programs Mr. Trump has promised not to touch.”
  • 4. SO WHATTO DO? • A Univ. of Maryland survey suggests more Americans want reform that raises revenue over reform that adds to the deficit. • Trump wants to cut capital gains and dividends to a rate half that of ordinary salary and wages. Only 15% of Americans endorse the idea.
  • 5. BORDER ADJUSTMENT TAX? • House Republicans first floated the idea. • Taxes imports and rebate taxes on exports. • Could make up for money lost by lowering corporate tax rate. • Critics say the expense is passed on to taxpayers who pay more for goods and products.
  • 6. TOUGH CHOICES • Last major tax reform was in 1981, but many of those changes were only temporary. • Interest groups and lobbyists put immense pressure on lawmakers not to negatively affect their industry. • Tax reform is like having a passion for riding a motorcycle…you may feel you need to get out and ride, but it’s dangerous.Any misstep could end in calamity.