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Anomaly detection…
at SCALE !
Opher Dubrovsky, BigData dev lead, Nielsen
Max Peres, BigData engineer, Nielsen
The Problem with Data
Photo by Pankaj Patel on Unsplash
Where is
Waldo ?
Photo by Pankaj Patel on Unsplash
Where is Waldo
now?
The Problem with Data:
SCALE !
Our Data
Anomaly
Photo by Jeff Kingma on Unsplash
Anomaly
Anomaly
1,131,219 time series
Agenda
o Detecting anomalies
o Architecting for cost and scale
o Predicting the future
o Models
o Summary
Who are we ?
Max Peres
Big Data Engineer
Motto
The devil is in the details !
Opher Dubrovsky
Big Data Dev Lead
Motto
The revolution is serverless !
Build marketing segments and
device graphs
Data is used for
› Running campaigns
› Business decisions
Marketing Cloud
Nielsen Marketing Cloud
Cloud native
~6,000 nodes/day
~60 TB/day
5 PetaByte
~6 million/day
Timeline
2019 2020 2021
Beta in production
Scale
improvements
Scale redesign
15,000ts
35,000ts
300,000ts
500,000ts
asked to
alert on
anomalies
146,189,940 data points
Pilot
created
1,100,000ts
Detecting Anomalies ?
Actual weather
8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00
24 co 26 co 26 co 27 co 28 co 28 co 0 co
Prediction
Compare a prediction to the actual values!
ANOMALY!
Naive Pilot - Relational Data Storage
Size
Query time
Poc Beta Full scale
Great for a pilot
OK for a beta
A bottleneck at
scale
Architecture
Scale & Cost
All Out on Serverless !
• Lambda Compute unit
• Lazy execution
• Low cost S3 storage
Low Cost & Endless Scale
Architecture – Using Fan Out to Scale
Work
Manager
Workers
Calculate new
data,
predictions
and anomalies
Message Queue
Our Unit of Work
TimeSeries: [1, 13, 15, 23, 42]
Paths: [s3://….. , s3://….. , ]
Message
Aggregation period: 3 hours
Model: ARIMA
Configuration
Postgres
S3
Anomalies
Only
Time series
Files
Results
The Secret to Scale and Low Cost ?
▪ Low cost storage
▪ Low cost processing
▪ Endless scale
Monthly Costs
10,000 time series / month Cost
Processing $2.70
Storage $0.000084
DB $1.66
TOTAL $4.36
Negligible !
• Single update run (100 time-series) - $0.0009
Predictions & Models
“Prediction is very
difficult, especially
about the future”
Niels Bohr
Errors grow into the future
Prediction
Period
1 2 3 . . . . . N
Acceptable
Not
Acceptable
short predictions == small errors
Algorithm Flow
9
11
13
15
14
13
11
9
Training Data
T
T-1
T-2
T-3
.
.
.
T-n
10
11
T+1
Prediction
Time series
10
T+2
10
10
T+3
18
18
ANOMALY!
Training Data
Large Delta
> 2.5 stdev
(==5.4)
Training Data
stdev = 2.2
Life is Full of Difficult Decisions!
Supported Libraries Future Libraries
Model Implementation
Anomaly
Seasonality
Trend
Noise
Decomposition
Choosing a model
Choosing a model
Choosing a model
ANOMALY!
A relationship will never work
if there is no trust !
Building trust: 1 picture == 1000 words
Summary
Items we talked about
1. Keeping costs low
2. Designing for scale
3. The importance of trust
4. Prediction models
Our Recipe
Low cost parts
Scale - duplicate units
Trust building features
Models - support multiple
Feedback
Your feedback is important to us.
Don’t forget to rate and review the sessions.

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