London Residential Market Analysis - Breakfast Briefing - EGi

Copyright EGi 2013. Download the full report for free http://www.estatesgazette.com/london-residential-market-analysis
Nigel Evans – Head of London Residential Research
Download the full report for free: www.estatesgazette.com/london-residential-market-analysis

About this presentation
• Produced by the EGi London Residential Research team, analysing 15
years of researched data
• The presentation looks at:
• Inner/outer borough split
• Inner prime starts
• The rise of the tall clusters
• Sales
• Pricing
• Affordability
• The full EGi London Residential Market Analysis can be downloaded for
free, visit http://www.estatesgazette.com/london-residential-market-analysis

130 site visits per
week
x
Inner/outer borough
split

0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
OuterLondon construction starts 2004-2011 private units
InnerLondon construction starts 2004-2011 private units
End 2011:
Starts:
Inner borough up
7%.
Starts:
Outerup
53%

0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Outer London construction starts 2004-2012 private units
Inner London construction starts 2004-2012 private units
End 2012
Starts:
Inner up
42%
Outer
down
21%

The reversal of fortune due to
•scarcity of mortgage availability
•abundance of foreign equity
During 2011 equity was chasing super-prime existing
stock.
It seems now that that stock is slowly being exhausted
and to cater for the continuing demand developers are
building again and they are building
prime.

Nigel Evans - team leader
Inner Prime
starts 2012
A closer look

City construction starts
Starts up by 131%
•10 Trinity Square, EC3 –
KOP
Rumoured that some of the
sales have been to buyers
who already own
apartments in One Hyde
Park.
•Roman House, Wood
Street, EC2 – Berkeley
At least 50% investor
sales

Kensington & Chelsea construction starts
Starts up by 186%
•The Power House, 73-79
Alpha Place, SW3 – Alpha
Developments
No pricing as yet
Comparable: Henry Moore
Court - Average £psf
£3,191
•The Parabola - Chelsfield
Comparable: 375
Kensington High Street -
Average £psf
£1,810

Westminster construction starts
Starts up by 12%
•Fitzroy Place, (Middlesex
Hosp.), W1 -
Kaupthing, Aviva and
Exemplar
Strong investor interest
CBRE and Savills are
targeting investors in
Turkey and Nigeria to
buy the remaining flats

startsin inner London
increased almost across the board
Not just in the big 3
boroughs of City, Westminster and K&C

Southwark construction starts
2011 :
2 starts in SE1
34 units
2012:
14 starts
522units.
1,435%
increase

Tower Hamlets construction starts
Ballymore’s New
Providence Tower
all the hallmarks of
2012 starts:
long fallow,
oven-ready
financial
restructuring.
44 storeys
significant addition
to the Docklands
skyline

But, it’s not the tower itself which is
important, rather it is what it
heralds

A glimpse of the future

Future supply
Rise of the
Tall clusters

Question:
Will the record number of construction starts
satisfy the demand for prime stock in the capital?

Answer:
A look at the prime nature of the development
pipeline would suggestthat
developers think not.

What is prime?
Prestige, exclusivity,scarcity
How does that manifest itself in these fringe
locations?

Tall
Close to the core as possible
Riverside

Prime residential clusters in inner London 2012
Prime residential clusters
are forming in the pipeline at:
•Docklands
•Surrey Quays
•North City fringe
•East City fringe
•Blackfriars
•Vauxhall

One could argue that applications and
permissions
have merely accumulated over time
and do not constitute a
conscious drive by developers
to build.

Prime residential clusters in inner London 2012
½applications and
permissions here
were submitted
or granted in
2012

This has had a dramatic
effect on the overall inner
London pipeline.
A look at table 2 of the
report shows...
Year Applications Permissions
Under
construction
Complet
ions Starts
Private Social Private Social Private Social Private Social Private Social
2004 17,033 9,731 19,841 12,721 10,911 6,432 5,303 3,711 5,385 4,274
2005 19,487 14,184 20,669 13,572 9,148 6,269 6,901 4,007 5,390 3,609
2006 11,920 7,281 27,161 15,990 9,345 7,090 6,308 4,387 6,836 4,620
2007 11,927 7,205 27,063 16,519 13,415 7,919 4,662 3,879 8,736 4,918
2008 8,943 5,140 35,033 20,226 10,704 6,163 7,690 4,465 4,962 2,952
2009 12,281 7,934 37,818 20,751 6,512 3,439 7,004 4,903 2,760 2,240
2010 11,352 5,995 38,806 21,367 6,584 4,279 4,655 2,822 4,792 3,408
2011 21,609 9,305 43,498 18,915 7,585 5,161 4,182 2,753 5,111 4,160
2012 15,669 5,015 57,727 22,680 9,854 4,137 5,022 4,792 7,268 3,563
%change since 2011 -27% -46% 33% 20% 30% -20% 20% 74% 42% -14%
%change since 2010 38% -16% 49% 6% 50% -3% 8% 70% 52% 5%
%change since 2009 28% -37% 53% 9% 51% 20% -28% -2% 163% 59%
%change since 2008 75% -2% 65% 12% -8% -33% -35% 7% 46% 21%
%change since 2007 31% -30% 113% 37% -27% -48% 8% 24% -17% -28%
%change since 2006 31% -31% 113% 42% 5% -42% -20% 9% 6% -23%
%change since 2005 17% -21% 96% 14% 37% 11% -29% -3% 84% 37%
%change since 2004 -8% -48% 191% 78% -10% -36% -5% 29% 35% -17%
Outer Boroughs
Year Applications Permissions Under construction Completions Starts
2004 38,256 19,513 36,734 21,974 12,124 7,269 7,878 4,531 10,309 5,265
2005 38,229 20,783 45,260 25,681 9,890 7,678 9,158 5,217 6,803 5,601
2006 27,447 15,280 55,945 29,557 10,701 8,706 7,793 5,906 7,797 6,788
2007 14,577 7,121 57,830 31,078 11,418 7,724 8,029 5,152 8,505 4,897
2008 26,331 12,724 67,213 34,580 7,857 5,749 8,405 5,378 4,859 3,572
2009 17,457 10,298 78,068 39,861 6,116 4,188 4,953 4,349 3,103 3,224
2010 16,246 8,066 80,101 41,109 7,471 6,437 4,285 3,433 5,445 5,419
2011 21,380 8,490 80,978 34,600 10,009 6,786 5,714 5,267 8,336 5,876
2012 14,737 8,347 95,438 40,840 8,780 4,094 7,970 5,935 6,515 2,976
%change since 2011 -31% -2% 18% 18% -12% -40% 39% 13% -22% -49%
%change since 2010 -9% 3% 19% -1% 18% -36% 86% 73% 20% -45%
%change since 2009 -16% -19% 22% 2% 44% -2% 61% 36% 110% -8%
%change since 2008 -44% -34% 42% 18% 12% -29% -5% 10% 34% -17%
%change since 2007 1% 17% 65% 31% -23% -47% -1% 15% -23% -39%
%change since 2006 -46% -45% 71% 38% -18% -53% 2% 0% -16% -56%
%change since 2005 -61% -60% 111% 59% -11% -47% -13% 14% -4% -4%
%change since 2004 -61% -57% 160% 86% -28% -44% 1% 31% -37% -43%

a 33% increase in the
number of permissions in
2012 in the inner boroughs.
Compare that with the 12%
and 3% rises in the two
preceding years.
Year Applications Permissions
Under
construction
Complet
ions Starts
2004 17,033 9,731 19,841 12,721 10,911 6,432 5,303 3,711 5,385 4,274
2005 19,487 14,184 20,669 13,572 9,148 6,269 6,901 4,007 5,390 3,609
2006 11,920 7,281 27,161 15,990 9,345 7,090 6,308 4,387 6,836 4,620
2007 11,927 7,205 27,063 16,519 13,415 7,919 4,662 3,879 8,736 4,918
2008 8,943 5,140 35,033 20,226 10,704 6,163 7,690 4,465 4,962 2,952
2009 12,281 7,934 37,818 20,751 6,512 3,439 7,004 4,903 2,760 2,240
2010 11,352 5,995 38,806 21,367 6,584 4,279 4,655 2,822 4,792 3,408
2011 21,609 9,305 43,498 18,915 7,585 5,161 4,182 2,753 5,111 4,160
2012 15,669 5,015 57,727 22,680 9,854 4,137 5,022 4,792 7,268 3,563
%change since 2011 -27% -46% 33% 20% 30% -20% 20% 74% 42% -14%
%change since 2010 38% -16% 49% 6% 50% -3% 8% 70% 52% 5%
%change since 2009 28% -37% 53% 9% 51% 20% -28% -2% 163% 59%
%change since 2008 75% -2% 65% 12% -8% -33% -35% 7% 46% 21%
%change since 2007 31% -30% 113% 37% -27% -48% 8% 24% -17% -28%
%change since 2006 31% -31% 113% 42% 5% -42% -20% 9% 6% -23%
%change since 2005 17% -21% 96% 14% 37% 11% -29% -3% 84% 37%
%change since 2004 -8% -48% 191% 78% -10% -36% -5% 29% 35% -17%
Outer Boroughs
Year Applications Permissions Under construction Completions Starts
2004 38,256 19,513 36,734 21,974 12,124 7,269 7,878 4,531 10,309 5,265
2005 38,229 20,783 45,260 25,681 9,890 7,678 9,158 5,217 6,803 5,601
2006 27,447 15,280 55,945 29,557 10,701 8,706 7,793 5,906 7,797 6,788
2007 14,577 7,121 57,830 31,078 11,418 7,724 8,029 5,152 8,505 4,897
2008 26,331 12,724 67,213 34,580 7,857 5,749 8,405 5,378 4,859 3,572
2009 17,457 10,298 78,068 39,861 6,116 4,188 4,953 4,349 3,103 3,224
2010 16,246 8,066 80,101 41,109 7,471 6,437 4,285 3,433 5,445 5,419
2011 21,380 8,490 80,978 34,600 10,009 6,786 5,714 5,267 8,336 5,876
2012 14,737 8,347 95,438 40,840 8,780 4,094 7,970 5,935 6,515 2,976
%change since 2011 -31% -2% 18% 18% -12% -40% 39% 13% -22% -49%
%change since 2010 -9% 3% 19% -1% 18% -36% 86% 73% 20% -45%
%change since 2009 -16% -19% 22% 2% 44% -2% 61% 36% 110% -8%
%change since 2008 -44% -34% 42% 18% 12% -29% -5% 10% 34% -17%
%change since 2007 1% 17% 65% 31% -23% -47% -1% 15% -23% -39%
%change since 2006 -46% -45% 71% 38% -18% -53% 2% 0% -16% -56%
%change since 2005 -61% -60% 111% 59% -11% -47% -13% 14% -4% -4%
%change since 2004 -61% -57% 160% 86% -28% -44% 1% 31% -37% -43%

Pipeline figures on Table 2 do not give us the full
story.
They do not indicate when the permissionswere
granted
merelywhat remains in the pipeline.

To find out the amount of activity in the
planning pipeline we must look at the rate at
which planning permissions were granted in any
given year.
The following figures do exactly that

For the first time (since we can remember) the greatest number of
permissions granted (measured as both the number of schemes
and the number of unitswithin a given year) occurred in the inner
boroughs.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PPG rate inner PPG rate outer
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
PPG rate inner PPG rate outer
Permission rate – Schemes Permission rate – Units

In our opinion this represents a clear
statement of intent
by developers and that intention
is to build.

Sales

Units
completed or
under
construction
Sold by year end Unsold by year end Sold
during the
year
2009
24,312
(-30%)
7,603
(-34%)
16,709
(-27%)
3,787
(-16%)
2010
22,995
(-5%)
7,480
(-1%)
15,515
(-7%)
4,259
(12%)
2011
27,203
(18%)
8,581
(15%)
18,622
(20%)
6,315
(48%)
2012
31,626
(16%)
12,408
(45%)
19,268
(3%)
8,874
(41%)
Split of units sold V units un-sold for all London units in construction pipeline
2009-2012
8,874 units were
sold
(In schemes under construction
or completed) in 2012
41% upon the
previous year
The highest it has been
post-Lehman.

But as we saw with construction starts this overview
masks the real picture. To see what’s
really going on we have to look at the
inner and outer boroughs
separately

Spot the difference

In last year’s report we wrote this regarding sales:
2011:
The inner boroughs saw a modest 20% increase in the
number of sales but in the outer boroughs sales shot up
by 76%.
2012:
The outer boroughs saw a modest 19% increase in the
number of sales but in the inner boroughs sales shot up
by 71%

2011:
The outer boroughs sales shot up by 76%.
2012:
The outer boroughs saw a modest 19% increase in the
number of sales

2011:
The inner boroughs saw a modest 20% increase
2012:
The inner boroughs sales shot up by 71%

So who was doing the
buying?

outerboroughs - little change in the buyer
profile a slight drop of 4% in investor activity
coupled with a corresponding increase in owner
occupier activity.
Investor Owner-occupier Investor
Owner-
occupier
Units sold %
Units
sold %
Units
sold %
Units
sold %
Inner completion
total 651 33% 1350 67%
Outer
completion total 691 21% 2541 79%
Inner under
construction total 1099 44% 1409 56%
Outer under
construction
total 307 26% 887 74%
Inner total 2012 1750 39% 2759 61% Outer total 2012 998 23% 3428 77%

The real change has been in the inner
boroughs with an 11%increase in
investor activity coupled with a corresponding
dropin owner occupier activity.
Investor Owner-occupier Investor
Owner-
occupier
Units sold %
Units
sold %
Units
sold %
Units
sold %
Inner completion
total 651 33% 1350 67%
Outer
completion total 691 21% 2541 79%
Inner under
construction total 1099 44% 1409 56%
Outer under
construction
total 307 26% 887 74%

In the inner boroughs however
investor activity
Increased not only in the
primeinner boroughs.

Prime Fringe sales
Barratt/Circle Anglia’s St
Andrews development in
Bow. 70% investor
sales in the tower
element.
Ballymore’s 21 Wapping
Lane the tower
element (The Tower)
50% investor
sales 30% investor sales
in the low rise
elements.

Prime Fringe sales
St James’ Riverlight
Launched in 2012,
“everything
that was
offered to the
market sold”at
least 50%to
international
investors

Prime Fringe sales - VNEBOA
The power station -
chief executive of SP
Setia said this of the off
plan sales in Malaysia:
“We had no
brochures, all we
had was a price
list and people
were queuing to
pay deposits.”

strong investor activity on the
fringes
But what of the super-prime
itself?

Westminster, City, Kensington & Chelsea
64% of the units offered to the market sold.
Compare that to 40% for the whole of the inner sector.
If it’s prime
it will sell

Pricing

Dichotomy
inner and outer
Equity Debt

Mortgage availability limited
Sales outer limited to less expensive and in general
furthest away (from the centre) boroughs
Sales inner concentrated around centre
prime.

In between “dead zone” as far as salesare
concerned
not far out enough to be affordable by owner occupier
standards but
not close enough to the centre to be
prime

£psf values across the capital in schemes that are currently selling (March 2013)

But, when there are
sales...

Prices both
£psf and capital values have increased
across the board
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
Initial average price per sq ft across all
London 2000-2012
1 bed 2 bed
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012
Initial average capital value across all
London 2000-2012
1 bed 2 bed

£psf and capital increased to a greater
extent in prime central
than any other geographical area.
Average price (£/sq ft) Average price (£’000) Average size (sq ft)
2012 2011 % change 2012 2011 % change 2012 2011 % change
Inner London 838 763 9.8% 687 615 11.7% 820 806 1.7%
Prime London 1,696 1,519 11.6% 1,823 1,536 18.6% 1,075 1,012 6.2%
Outer London 435 422 3.0% 337 302 11.5% 776 717 8.2%
All London 628 594 5.7% 500 451 10.8% 796 759 4.8%
Key averages (1,2 & 3 beds combined with both latest price & size only)

Affordability

Owner occupiers.
The feasibility of acquiring a property in the
capital for the average Londoner.

Some maths:
•£300k flat deposit = £60k
•The ONS states a median gross income of just over
£34k per annum for London
•£2,000 take home pay per month
•A “back of a beer mat” calculation = 10 years to save
up the deposit.

So are there any homes in the capital that are
truly affordable with required deposits of say
half of this example which would take only 5 years
to raise, a much more feasible time
scale?

Yes

Sub £200k units within developments currently selling (March 2013) –
(red markers=units below £150k)

Affordability – an honourable mention
Bellway’s City East
Barking
Riverside, good
quality, imaginat
ive stock at truly
affordableprices.
Are they selling?
£135k to
£290k all but
sold out with only 5%
going to investors.

Conclusion

Recovery in the inner boroughs?
•Starts up 42%
•Sales up 71%
•Permission rates up 192%
Market robust on the surface but a
look behind the headline figures reveals that
it is anything but.

The increases we witnessed in 2012 were
exceptional, we have not seen the like in all the 15 years
that we have been monitoring the market
In an inherently conservative market such
fluctuations are a genuine cause for
concern.

This is a market increasingly being driven by
foreign investment, predominantly as a
means of wealth protection rather than
wealth generation.

A market underpinned by the potentially volatile and
unpredictable growth driver of foreign investment
is one which could burst very quickly.
The current boom in the residential market is largely
London centric, based on the perception of the
capital as a safe haven for foreign equity.
The question we have to ask is, what happens if
it ceases to be?
In our opinion...

This has all the hallmarks of a bubble

The London Residential
Market Analysis

LRRalways strives to look at the trends
behind the data but now for the first time we
can visualise and interact with that data.

Throughout the report you will see the
following icons and
graphsclick and that’s the end of the journey.
maps link in to their specific record on
the LRR database.

Sub £200k units within developments currently selling
(March 2013) – (red markers=units below £150k)

The start of this presentation same each year
180,000 applications, 6,000 site visits, 20,000 schemes on
the database etc... Of those 20,000 schemes some
3,000are either lapsed, withdrawn or refused,
But, if this digital edition is about anything it’s about
visualisation
Let’s not say how vastthe database is
let’s visualise it
This is what 3,000 schemes looks like

A lucky dip
All these sites have at one point been
in the planning system,
each site was once thought to have
development potential,
each one
could have again

Download the full report
www.estatesgazette.com/london-residential-market-analysis

London Residential Market Analysis - Breakfast Briefing - EGi

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