A breakdown of the demographics and trends in homicides and suicides in Winnebago County, Illinois.

1. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Trends and Disparities in Homicides and Suicides
in Winnebago County from 1968–2010
Jeffrey B. Wang
Harvard University
August 20, 2013
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
1 / 13

2. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Motivation
Rockford is rated as the 9th most dangerous city in the US
Homicides and suicides account for 32% of all teenager
(15–24) deaths in Illinois
Homicides in 2005 cost the state $2.4 trillion
CDC, WISQARS, 2012
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
2 / 13

3. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Overview
Previous Work – Harrison, 2008
Examined overall trends in homicides and suicides in
Winnebago from 1979–2005
Identified disparities in suicides from 2000–2005
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
3 / 13

4. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Overview
Previous Work – Harrison, 2008
Examined overall trends in homicides and suicides in
Winnebago from 1979–2005
Identified disparities in suicides from 2000–2005
Objectives
Expand focus to existing mortality data from 1968–2010
Cross-reference data to Crime Databases from Illinois State
and Rockford PD
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
3 / 13

5. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Methods
Criteria for selection:
1
2
3
Resident of Winnebago County
Mortality occured in Winnebago County
Primary cause of death ICD coded as suicide or assault
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
4 / 13

6. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Methods
Criteria for selection:
1
2
3
Resident of Winnebago County
Mortality occured in Winnebago County
Primary cause of death ICD coded as suicide or assault
Demographics and mortality data drawn from CDC WONDER
Violent crime data extracted from Uniform Crime Reports
published by Illinois State Police
Homicide demographics and locations acquired from Rockford
PD by FOIA Request
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
4 / 13

7. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Overall Trends in Homicides
Crude5Homicide5Rates5per5100,0005Population
Crude Rate per 100,000
8
Illinois5Average
Total5Homicides
7
6
5
National5Average
4
3
2
Firearm5Homicides
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
5 / 13

8. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Overall Trends in Homicides
Proportion9of9Homicides9Committed9with9a9Firearm
80
Illinois9Average
National9Average
Percent
60
Winnebago9County
40
20
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
5 / 13

9. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Role of Violent Crime
600
Crude Assault Rates per 100,000 Crime Report
Crude Rate per 100,000
500
400
300
200
100
0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
6 / 13

10. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Role of Violent Crime
Proportion of Assaults that Escalated to Homicide
3.0
2.5
Percent
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Year
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
6 / 13

11. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Demographics
Risk Factors for Homicides
Race
Black
Age Group
15-24
25-34
35-44
Other
Total
15-24
25-34
35-44
White
45-54
Other
Total
Jeffrey B. Wang
Homicides Rate
42 59.4
35 60.4
17 31.1
13
5.5
107
22
22
18
16
30
25.5
6.1
5.9
4.1
3.6
2.3
108
3.7
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
7 / 13

12. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Demographics
Risk Factors for Homicides
Race
Black
Age Group
15-24
25-34
35-44
Other
Total
15-24
25-34
35-44
White
45-54
Other
Total
Jeffrey B. Wang
Homicides Rate
42 59.4
35 60.4
17 31.1
13
5.5
107
22
22
18
16
30
25.5
6.1
5.9
4.1
3.6
2.3
108
3.7
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
7 / 13

13. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Demographics
Risk Factors for Homicides
Race
Black
Age Group
15-24
25-34
35-44
Other
Total
15-24
25-34
35-44
White
45-54
Other
Total
Jeffrey B. Wang
Homicides Rate
42 59.4
35 60.4
17 31.1
13
5.5
107
22
22
18
16
30
25.5
6.1
5.9
4.1
3.6
2.3
108
3.7
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
7 / 13

14. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Locations of Homicides
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
8 / 13

15. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Overall Trends in Suicides
Crude7Suicide7Rates7per7100,0007Population
Total7Suicides
14
National7Average
Crude Rate per 100,000
12
10
Illinois7Average
8
6
4
Firearm7Homicides
2
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
9 / 13

16. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Overall Trends in Suicides
Proportion9of9Suicides9Committed9with9a9Firearm
70
National9Average
60
Percent
50
40
Illinois9Average
30
Winnebago9County
20
10
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
9 / 13

17. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Demographics
Caucasian males aged 35–44 are roughly two times more likely
to commit suicide than average
Suicide by asphyxiation and drug overdose are on the rise
Age disparities are not nearly as dramatic as those of
homicides
Due to low-number noise, age breakdown by race or gender is
not possible
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
10 / 13

18. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Summary
Identified major risk groups for homicides and suicides
Homicides: African American Teens and Young Adults
Suicides: Caucasian Middle-Aged Men
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
11 / 13

19. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Summary
Identified major risk groups for homicides and suicides
Homicides: African American Teens and Young Adults
Suicides: Caucasian Middle-Aged Men
Showed that firearm-related homicides are on the rise,
whereas firearm-related suicides are declining
No clear trends between Firearm Permit Issuance and
firearm-related crimes
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
11 / 13

20. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Summary
Identified major risk groups for homicides and suicides
Homicides: African American Teens and Young Adults
Suicides: Caucasian Middle-Aged Men
Showed that firearm-related homicides are on the rise,
whereas firearm-related suicides are declining
No clear trends between Firearm Permit Issuance and
firearm-related crimes
Possible implication that homicide problems are reflective of a
more general epidemic of violence
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
11 / 13

21. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Future Directions
Establish a local database for homicides and suicides in
conjunction with Rockford PD and local hospitals
Investigate relationship between number of recovered illegal
weapons and homicides
Develop intervention and education strategies to deter violent
activity among teens
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
12 / 13

22. Introduction
Homicides
Suicides
Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Mr. Maichle Bacon,
WCHD
Ms. Kim Binder and Ms.
Becky Bartkowicz,
Rockford PD
Lieutenant Steve Lyddon,
Illinois State Police
Jeffrey B. Wang
Winnebago County Homicides and Suicides
August 20, 2013
13 / 13