8. The Principle of Optimum Failure Rate
Potential Information
0% 50% 100%
Probability of Failure
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9. Greater Asserted Greater Asserted
Information Information
Potential Information
0% 50% 100%
Probability of Failure
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10. Greater Asserted Greater Asserted
Information Information
Interesting
Ideas
Potential Information
Pretty Pretty
Sure Sure
theory theory
is right is wrong
0% 50% 100%
Probability of Failure
@cyetain
11. Greater Asserted Greater Asserted
Information Information
Interesting
Ideas
Potential Information
Uncomfortable
Confident
Pretty Pretty
Sure Sure
theory theory
is right is wrong
0% 50% 100%
Probability of Failure
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12. Number of Samples The Competency Trap
Experience of Failure
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14. The Line of SURPRISE!
Interesting Hidden
Hidden
Risk
Ideas Value
Potential Information
Pretty Pretty
Sure Sure
theory theory
is right is wrong
0% 50% 100%
Probability of Failure
@cyetain
15. 3
2
Interesting Hidden
Hidden
Risk
Ideas Value
Potential Information
1
Pretty Pretty
Sure Sure
theory theory
is right is wrong
0% 50% 100%
1 During Customer Development Focus on Interesting Ideas
Probability of Failure
Before Scaling Validate Your "We Know This Assumptions" to
2
reduce risk of Failure Demand
3 After Customer Validation Run experiments to Validate Assumptions of Failure
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16. Utilize Abduction
&
Scientific Method
Just Say No to Xenophobia
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22. Theories
Opinions
Hypothesizes Request More
Information
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23. •Based on your experiences, what
would you do to solve this
problem? This is your Hypothesis.
•Identify What Needs to Be True if
your Hypothesis is true.
•Assert, Presume, Assume Truth
•Imagine Experiments that would
justify the Assumptions How Would I Validate my
How Would I understanding of this
solve this problem?
Problem?
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24. I Assert that this I
know this
Interesting
Ideas
Potential Information
Pretty Pretty
Sure Sure
theory theory
is right is wrong
0% 50% 100%
Probability of Failure
I Presume
Somebody
knows this
Interesting
Ideas
Potential Information Pretty Pretty
Sure Sure
theory theory
I am going to Assume
is right is wrong
0% 50% 100%
this is true for my Probability of Failure
Hypothesis to be true
Interesting
Ideas
Potential Information
Pretty Pretty
Sure Sure
theory theory
is right is wrong
0% 50% 100%
Probability of Failure
@cyetain
25. Rotate Pairs 2-3 Times
Allow Time for Revision Between Rounds
This is my Hypothesis,
Challenge
Assumptions and
Assumptions &
Experiments
Experiments
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26. This is my Hypothesis,
Assumptions and
Experiments
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27. Multiple Smaller Experiments
against
Multiple Abductive Hypotheses
instead of
Single Large Experiment
against
Single Hypotheses
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