PPT - The Great Depression - IIA2

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Economics 464 Populism and economic populism Background Populism has a long tradition in the United States and in Latin America. In the US, both the Occupy Movement and the Tea Party can be considered populist, one on the left of the political spectrum and the other on the right. Populists tend to shun traditional political parties, often argue that the system is broken and corrupt, and try to go directly to the people in their appeals. They are often led by a charismatic individual (see: Hugo Chavez). In Latin America, Juan Peron of Argentina (1946-1955 and 1973-1974) is probably the most well-known populist leader. Others that are often labeled populists are Lopez Portillo in Mexico (1976-1972), Goulart (1961-1964) in Brazil, Garcia (1985-1990) in Peru. Historians and political scientists debate whether socialists like Castro or Salvador Allende (Chile, 1970-1973) can be considered populists. Traditionally, populist movements in Latin American have three main goals: · Democratic inclusion; · Economic nationalism; · Social justice. A new kind of populism? In their edited work, The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America, Dornbusch and Edwards hypothesize that a new strain of populism emerged after World War II, which they label economic populism. Its primary difference from other types of populism is the complete disregard for economic constraints. Historically, populists in Latin America were aware of the constraints imposed by budgets, exchange rates, the money supply, and other variables but economic populists are less bothered by these limits. Dornbusch and Edwards define economic populism as: Economic policies emphasizing growth and redistribution which simultaneously de-emphasize (or deny the importance of) inflation risks, deficit finance, external constraints (i.e. trade and exchange rate issues), and the reactions of economic agents. Economic populism does not seem to flourish where one or two multi-class political parties provide stable electoral majorities, and it is stronger where popularly supported groups have been excluded politically (e.g. unions, indigenous rights movements, leftists, rightists). It also flourishes where there are no stable majorities (countries making the transition to democracy The populist cycle Dornbusch and Edwards hypothesize that episodes of economic populism begin with a particular set of initial conditions: a) Deep dissatisfaction with the status quo, inadequate growth or even recession, often as a result of previous stabilization programs. b) A rejection of constraints on macro policy. Partly a result of existing idle capacity which seems to hold the promise of easy expansion. Given that there is often rationing of foreign exchange (foreign exchange) and credit, there is more leeway for expansion. Excess capacity and potential economies of scale imply little inflationary pressure. c) Policy prescription is to (1) reactivate, (2) redistribute, and (3) restructure. Fiscal ...

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