1. 银行贷款银行贷款银行贷款银行贷款
风险准备金管理风险准备金管理风险准备金管理风险准备金管理
林日林日林日林日辉辉辉辉 博士博士博士博士
商业行政学博士商业行政学博士商业行政学博士商业行政学博士 (金融专业金融专业金融专业金融专业)
CFA, CAIA, FRM, PRM, MCSE, MCNE
PRIMA 2005 年度优秀奖得主年度优秀奖得主年度优秀奖得主年度优秀奖得主
电邮地址电邮地址电邮地址电邮地址: quanrisk@gmail.com
2
Agenda目录
Regulatory provision and loan classification 监管
准备金和贷款分类
Accounting provision vs regulatory reserve 会计准
备金 vs监管储备
Impact from Basel II 新巴塞尔标准的影响
Provision in Asia countries亚洲国家的准备金规定
3
Regulatory provision监管准备金
In making loans, banks face the risk that
borrowers will default and the full amount of
the loan will not be recovered
在贷款业务中,银行将面对借款人违约风险,
或不能回收全额贷款的风险
4
When a loan loss becomes likely, a bank will
make a charge to the profit and loss statement
(“provision”) to create a loan loss reserve that
is shown on the balance sheet
面对有可能发生的贷款损失,银行将会在营
业损益表中准备一笔贷款损失准备金, 这
笔经费将记入资产负债表中
2. 5
When the full amount of principal and interest
on the loan becomes uncollectible, the loan
balance is reduced through a charge to the
loan loss reserve
当贷款的本金和利息不能全额收回时, 贷款
总额将减少一笔金额,成为贷款损失
6
Loan classification贷款分类
Pass正常贷款
Special mention关注贷款
Substandard次级贷款
Doubtful可疑贷款
Loss损失贷款
Various levels of provision are made for
different class of loans 为不同等级贷款制
定其相应的监管水平
7
Pass正常贷款
Definition定义
Loans where borrowers are current in meeting
commitments and full repayment of interest +
principal is not in doubt
借款人能够履行合同,一直能正常还本付息,
不存在任何影响贷款本息及时全额偿还的消极
因素,银行对借款人按时足额偿还贷款本息有
充分把握
8
General provision普通呆账准备金
A general provision of at least 1% across-the-board
should be established 普通呆账准备金必须至少达到贷
款总额的1%
Alternatively, general provision may be calculated
according to a formula based on past loan loss experience
in respect of different categories of loans (e,g. 0.5% on
residential mortgages, 2% on taxi loans, etc.) 或者,普
通呆账准备金会由依据不同贷款种类和以往的贷款损
失经验制定的公式进行计算(例如住宅抵押贷款的计提
比例为0.5%, 出租车贷款的计提比例为2% )
3. 9
Special mention关注贷款
Definition定义
Loans where borrowers are experiencing difficulties
which may threaten the institution‘s position 借款人存
在一些可能对偿还产生不利影响的因素
Ultimate loss is not expected at this stage but could occur
if adverse conditions persist 如这些因素继续下去,
借款人的偿还能力受到影响,那么有可能出现贷款损
失
10
Typical over due period标准期限
Unsecured or partially-secured : up to 3 months 无担保或部分担
保:3个月
Fully secured : up to 12 months全额担保:12个月
Provision呆账准备金
No specific provision is necessary To increase the general provision
against such loans to, say, 2% 此类贷款不需要专项呆账准备
金,只需要2%的普通呆账准备金
For taxi loans a specific provision of 2% on top of a general provision
of 2% is recommended.对于出租车贷款,除了2%的普通呆账准备
金外,还需2%的专项呆账准备金
11
Substandard次级贷款
Definition定义
Loans where borrowers are displaying a definable
weakness that is likely to jeopardize repayment
借款人的还款能力出现明显问题,很有可能出
现贷款损失
12
Typical over due period标准期限
Unsecured or partially-secured : Generally more
than 3 months up to 6 months无担保或部分担保:
一般情况3到6个月
4. 13
Provision 呆账准备金
Specific provisions should normally be on a loan-by-loan
basis
专项呆账准备金通常以個別贷款情况为基础
Provisions should be determined on a loan-by-loan basis,
with full provision being made for the likely loss
准备金需要以個別贷款情况为基础来决定的,为可能出
现的损失计提足够的准备金
14
20-25% provision to be made against the unsecured
portion of those loans that it is unable to assess on a loan-
by-loan basis 对于此类贷款的无担保部分,需计提
20-25%的呆账准备金,并且该项准备金以個別贷款的
情况为基础制定
may be based on past loan loss experience In the case of
loans with similar characteristics (e.g. credit cards) 也
有可能取决于过去此类贷款的损失经验(例如信用卡)
15
Doubtful可疑贷款
Definition定义
Loans where collection in full is improbable 借款人无
法足额偿还贷款本息
Bank expects to sustain a loss of principal and/or interest
after taking account of the net realizable value of security
考虑执行抵押或担保后包括在内的净价值,银行希望
将损失维持在相应的范围内
Typical over due period标准期限
Unsecured or partially-secured : generally more than 6
months 无担保或部分担保:一般大于6个月
16
Provision呆账准备金
Provisions are likely to be in the range of 50-75% against
the unsecured portion
对于此类贷款的无担保部分,需计提50-75%的呆账准
备金
Provisions at the higher end of this range may be
appropriate where there has been no sign of
progress/improvement over time
如果此类贷款一直没有好转的迹象,则需计提最高额
度的呆账准备金
5. 17
If it is not possible to reliably estimate the likely
loss on some loans, it is prudent to provide at
least 50% against those doubtful loans that it is
unable to assess on a loan-by-loan basis
如果不能准确地评估此项贷款的损失,最好实
行谨慎政策,制定不少于50%的呆账损失准备
金,并且该项准备金以個別贷款的情况为基础
制定
18
Loss损失贷款
Definition定义
Loans which are considered uncollectible after
exhausting all collection efforts such as
realization of collateral, institution of legal
proceedings, etc.
借款人已无偿还本息的可能,无论采取什么措
施和履行什么程序,贷款都注定要损失
19
Provision呆账准备金
All outstanding principal and interest which are
not covered by the value of collateral should be
fully provided for or written off (e.g. 100%
provision)
经过抵押品价值抵销后仍然未能偿还的本金和
利息需全额提供呆账准备金或销记(例如
100%的呆账准备金)
20
Agenda目录
Regulatory provision and loan classification 监管
准备金和贷款分类
Accounting provision vs regulatory reserve 会计准
备金 vs监管储备
Impact from Basel II 新巴塞尔标准的影响
Provision in Asia countries亚洲国家的准备金规定
6. 21
Accounting provision (IAS39 2005)
会计条款
Accounting standards require that financial
statements present the position of a reporting entity
as of the date of the financial statements and be
based upon known events, rather than possible future
events
会计准则规定,财务报表应该像准确反映日期一
样,准确反映出报告实体的真实情况,这些数据
最好来源于已发生的事实,而非预期将会发生的
事实
22
International Accounting Standard (IAS) 39 recognizes loans
as being impaired when there is objective evidence that since
the date that the loan was recorded as an asset in the bank’s
financial statements, one or more events have occurred that
will have an impact on the estimated future cash flows of the
loan
国际会计准则(IAS)39规定,当拥有足够的客观证据,
并且贷款已经记录进入银行财务报表的资产栏中,一个
或多个事件的发生将会对贷款的预期未来现金流 产生影
响 ,这时认定该项贷款为损失贷款
23
The balance sheet amount of the loan should
be reduced by the amount of impairment
through the creation of a loan loss reserve on
the balance sheet
伴随着资产负债表上呆账准备金的增加,
资产负债表上贷款数额应该相应减少
24
Specific reserves are made for individually assessed
loans that are found to be impaired, while a
collective assessment reserve can be established for
individually significant loans for which impairment
is not identified, and those that, because of their
small size, are impractical to individually assess
当发现个别评估的贷款已有亏损情况时,需准备
专项呆账准备金,制定一个集体评估储备,为某
些重大的贷款,损失还未被认定,而且,因为他
们是小型贷款,不可能去做单独的评估
7. 25
The fact that IAS 39 requires one or more loss events to have
occurred before a reserve can be established has led to it
being referred to as an “incurred loss model”. This approach
has been criticized for only permitting loan losses to be
recognized fairly late in the credit cycle and for being, as a
consequence, procyclical in nature.
IAS 39规定一个或多个损失事件在发生后就应该准备足
够的呆账准备金,就好像一个“已发生损失模型”一样。
该项法规使得申请呆账准备金在信贷循环环节中容易产
生滞后性,因此,逐渐形成其自身的周期性
26
Regulatory reserve监管储备
Regulatory provision监管准备金
Forward looking前 景展望
Accounting provision会计准备金
Evidence based证据为本
27
Regulatory reserve监管储备
= Regulatory provision - Accounting provision
= 监管准备金 - 会计准备金
A buffer to balance the requirements between regulatory
and accounting standards 作为风险储备,用于平衡监
管标准和会计标准的要求
No direct impact on profit and loss 对资产损益表没有直
接影响
28
Agenda目录
Regulatory provision and loan classification 监管
准备金和贷款分类
Accounting provision vs regulatory reserve 会计准
备金 vs监管储备
Impact from Basel II 新巴塞尔标准的影响
Provision in Asia countries亚洲国家的准备金规定
8. 29
新巴塞尔协议的信用风险量度
PD: Probability of Default 违约率
LGD: Loss Given Default 违约损失率
EAD: Exposure at Default 违约暴险额
EL Rate (%): Expected Loss (%) = PD x LGD 预期损失=违约率x违约
损失率
EL Amount ($): Expected Loss Amount ($) = EAD x PD x LGD 预期损
失=违约暴险额x违约率x违约损失率
Expected loss should have been shown in the income statement 预期损失
应该会在财务报表反映出来。
Capital charge in Basel II requires banks to provide capital no less than
unexpected loss (UL) 巴塞尔协议II中资本要求银行提供的资本,
不少于非预期损失
30
What is UL? 非预期损失是什麼?
Unexpected Loss = Extreme Loss – Expected
Loss 非预期损失=最大损失-预期损失
Extreme Loss at 99.9% confidence level 最大
损失在99.9%置信水平
Frequency
Potential
loss rate
Unexpected loss:
covered by capital
Expected loss:
covered by
provisioning
Shaded area is equal
to 0.1%
Unexpected loss:
NOT covered
31
预期亏损和非预期亏损
预期亏损:
应该反映在财务报表上面
作为贷款损失准备金
非预期损失
计算为资本要求
能处理压力情况下的亏损
32
内部评级法和损失准备金
贷款组合贷款组合贷款组合贷款组合 敞口敞口敞口敞口 PD LGD EL UL 利息利息利息利息 净收入净收入净收入净收入
大企业 10000 0.05% 45% 2.25 15.75 4% 47.75
中企业 20000 0.25% 45% 22.5 157.5 5% 277.5
小企业 5000 4% 60% 120 840 10% 205
房屋贷款 300000 1% 15% 450 3150 7% 8550
信用卡贷款 20000 4% 100% 800 5600 8% 100
汽车贷款 30000 10% 100% 3000 21000 10% -1050
其它个人贷款 20000 8% 100% 1600 11200 12% 100
总数 5994.75 41963.25 总数 8230.25
ROROC 19.61%
10. 37
Expected loss vs eligible provision (EP)
预期损失vs合格的准备金
EL-EP calculation EL-EP的计算
If EL > EP, the difference shall be deducted from the bank’s core capital and
supplementary capital on a 50:50 basis
如果EL > EP,差数将会从银行的核心资本和附加资本中以50:50的标准
扣除
If EL < EP, the difference may include in the bank’s supplementary capital,
up to a maximum of 0.6% of the bank’s risk-weighted amount for credit risk
calculated under the IRB approach
如果EL < EP,差数将会记入银行的附加资本
EP includes EP包括
Specific provisions专项准备金
Partial write-offs部分销账
Regulatory reserve for general banking risks一般银行风险的监管储备金
Collective provisions attributable to exposures which are subject to IRB
approach由于内部评级法监控下的风险而产生的共同准备金
38
RAROC 风险调整后的资本回报率
RAROC = 净收入 / 监管资本
RAROC = 净收入 / 经济资本
经济资本 > 监管资本
因为监管资本仅复盖信用,市场和操作风险
没有包括流动性风险,过分集中风险, 声誉
风险,不寻常压力风险
39
RAROC 的起码要求
资本的组成
股本 (通常超过70%)
优先股
长期债券
成本
股本: 股东回报率: 20%
长期债券: 债券收益率: 6% 到 10%
40
行业和地区的影响
贷款组合贷款组合贷款组合贷款组合 敞口敞口敞口敞口 PD LGD EL UL 利息利息利息利息 净收入净收入净收入净收入
住宅开发 10000 6.0% 45% 270 1890 4% -220
电信 20000 3.0% 45% 270 1890 5% 30
制造 5000 4.0% 45% 90 630 10% 235
上海 20000 2.0% 45% 180 1260 8% 720
深圳 30000 3.0% 45% 405 2835 10% 1545
北京 20000 6.0% 45% 540 3780 12% 1160
11. 41
PD 的设计
能跟经济周期挂钩
经济比较差
PD 会增加
普通统计模型可能不充分
42
巴塞尔委员会的信用风险公告要求
(2000)
“(p.10) A bank should discuss the techniques it uses
to monitor and manage past due or impaired
assets/credit relationships, including its procedures
for credit quality classifications and its practices and
procedures for evaluating the adequacy of credit loss
provisions and credit loss allowances.” “银行应
该运用技巧监督和管理拖欠资产和受损害资产
(或受损害债权关系),包括信用质量分类的程
序,评估信用损失准备金和信用损耗差的方法和
程序。”
43
巴塞尔委员会的信用风险公告要求
(2000)
“(p.11) A bank should disclose balances of
credit exposures, including current exposure
and, where applicable, future potential
exposure, by major categories.” “银行应
该公开信贷风险的信息表,包括当前风
险,在适用情况下,未来潜在的风险,之
于主要范畴。”
44
巴塞尔委员会的信用风险公告要求
(2000)
“(p.12)A bank should disclose information
about credit exposures by business line.”
“银行应该按行业務分类,公开信贷风险的
相关信息”
12. 45
巴塞尔委员会的信用风险公告要求
(2000)
“(p.11) A bank should disclose information
about credit exposures by major categories of
counterparties.” “银行应该按交易对手的
主要范畴分类,公开信贷风险的相关信
息。”
46
巴塞尔委员会的信用风险公告要求
(2000)
“(p.12) A bank should disclose information
about credit exposures by geographic areas.“
“银行应该按照地理区域分类,公开信贷
风险的相关信息”
47
正常正常正常正常 过期过期过期过期 坏账坏账坏账坏账
准备金准备金准备金准备金
违约贷款违约贷款违约贷款违约贷款
48
巴克莱: 利用统计模型建造评级系统
“Barclays uses statistical modeling techniques
throughout its business in its credit rating
systems…”
13. 49
巴克莱风险量度:
PD,LGD & EAD
“The key building blocks in the measurement
system are the probability of customer default
(PD), exposure in the event of default (EAD),
and severity of loss-given-default (LGD). ”
50
巴克莱:定期检查模型的合时性
“The models are reviewed regularly to
monitor their robustness relative to actual
performance and amended as necessary to
optimise their effectiveness. ”
51
巴克莱:利用内部评级评估批发性
贷款和企业贷款的风险
“For wholesale and corporate lending,
Barclays assesses the credit quality of
borrowers and other counterparties and
assigns them an internal risk rating.”
52
巴克莱:对手风险评级按照当前经
济情况分为21级
“Barclays credit rating contains 21 grades,
representing the Group’s best estimate of
credit risk for a counterparty based on current
economic conditions.”
14. 53
巴克莱:
零售信用使用组合风险评级
“Retail customers are not all assigned internal
risk ratings in this way for account
management purposes.”
54
巴克莱:违约贷款的定义(90天过
期, 定义为坏账目,和贷款重组)
“The Group considers Credit Risk Loans
(defined as all customers overdue by 90 days
or more, and/or individually impaired or
restructured) and loan loss rates when
assessing the credit performance of its loan
portfolios, other than those held at fair value. ”
55
巴克莱量度信用风险的方法
“For the purposes of historical and business
unit comparison, loan loss rates are defined as
total annualised credit impairment charge
(excluding available for sale assets and
reverse repurchase agreements) divided by
gross loans and advances to customers and
banks (at amortised cost).”
贷款亏损率 = 年度总坏账 / 总贷款
56
国际银行准备金计算方法
预期亏损 = EAD X PD X LGD
违约贷款: 违约贷款PD = 100%
正常贷款: 正常贷款的PD
过期贷款: 过期贷款的PD
对手敞口
取决于衍生工具合约的时间
利用模拟方法,计算合约的时间加权平均值
敞口 = 平均利润 + SD
15. 57
Agenda目录
Regulatory provision and loan classification 监管
准备金和贷款分类
Accounting provision vs regulatory reserve 会计准
备金 vs监管储备
Impact from Basel II 新巴塞尔标准的影响
Provision in Asia countries亚洲国家的准备金规定
58
Provisioning practices in Asia
亚洲地区准备金实行的方法
58
59
Hong Kong SAR 香港
IAS 39 was implemented in 2005 IAS 39 从2005年
开始实施
Loan provisions are made when objective evidence
of impairment occurs当搜集到亏损的客观证据
时,银行将会准备呆账准备金
In addition, banks are expected to maintain a
“regulatory reserve” of approximately 0.5–1% of
total loans to cover losses which may occur in the
future
此外,银行还会为将来有可能发生的贷款损失准
备大约占据贷款总额0.5-1%的监管储备金
60
Regulatory reserve is an “earmarked” amount in retained
earnings and is therefore distinct from provisions监管储备金
是一项专用资金,这也是它区别于呆账准备金的地方
The HKMA expects that the regulatory reserve should
approximate the difference between香港金融管理局希望监
管储备金接近以下两者之间的区别
the sum of general and specific reserves that would have been
established prior to the implementation of IAS 39; and
于IAS 39实施之前设立的一般储备金和专项储备金的总额
the level of reserves required after its implementation
IAS 39实施后所要求的储备水平
16. 61
China中国
IAS 39 was implemented by all listed banks on 1 January
2007, and in 2009 for all other banks.
从2007年1月1日起,所有上市银行开始执行IAS 39 标
准,2009年,所有银行均执行IAS 39 标准
Banks have been required to set aside general reserves of at
least 1% of loans outstanding since 2005
从2005年开始,银行被要求至少需要预留出未偿还贷款
的1%作为一般储备金
Effective 2002, loan classification rules were revised such
that specific reserves were mandated for the four lowest
grades
重要的2002年,贷款分类规则修改后,将会对4类最低级
贷款强制执行专项储备金规定
62
Prudential guidelines allow banks to establish
specific reserves for loans graded either substandard
or doubtful which are 20% greater or less than the
prudential norm
谨慎政策允许银行无论是针对次级贷款还是可疑
贷款都可制定专项储备金
Factors considered when determining the appropriate
level of reserves include specific risk scenarios,
probability of losses and historical experience
决定合适的储备水平时需要考虑的因素,包括特
定风险,损失的可能性和历史经验
63
Further steps by CBRC to ensure adequate provision levels
include statements encouraging banks to raise their ratios of
total provisions to non-performing loans to 150% by the end
of 2009 to provide sufficient coverage not only for currently
identified problem loans but also for a potential increase in
non-performing loans owing to the significant loan growth
experiences in the first half of 2009
中国银监会的进一步措施便是确保充足的准备金水平,
包括2009年底发表声明鼓励银行对不良贷款提高准备金
率至150%,此举措范围广泛,不仅包括确认的问题贷
款,还包括因2009年上半年重大贷款的增长经验而预测
的不良贷款的潜在增长量
64
Singapore新加坡
IAS 39 became effective in 2005
从2005年开始执行IAS 39标准
Banks not yet compliant with IAS 39 must maintain
a minimum specific reserve level based upon the
supervisory loan grade
没有执行IAS 39 标准的银行必须保留较低的专项
储备金水平,并且以监管贷款分类为基础
No specific guidance on general provision
对于普通呆账准备金,并没有特殊的规定
17. 65
MAS set out a “transitional arrangement” that the
general provision level should be maintained at >=
1% of loans net of collateral values
新加坡金融管理局暂时实施“过度安排”,即普通
呆账准备金水平必须保持在大于等于扣除抵押品
价值后的贷款总额的1%左右
All minimum provision levels are net of collateral
所有最低的呆账准备金水平已扣除抵押品
66
Korea韩国
The tightened provisioning norms on numerous occasions
over the past decade
在过去的十年,韩国实行紧缩的呆账准备金政策
General reserve requirement for corporate loans was
increased to 0.5%, 0.7% and 0.85% in 1999, 2005 and 2007,
respectively
公司贷款的一般储备金持续增加,分别为1999年0.5%,
2005年0.7% ,2007年0.85%
Higher provisioning requirements for residential housing and
credit card loans relative to corporate loans in place since
December 2006
从2006年12月开始,相比较于公司贷款,住宅建筑贷款
和信用卡贷款准备金要求提高
67
Korean regulator explicitly incorporate “expected
loss” considerations into their guidance on
provisions韩国政府关于准备金的政策中已经明确
地包含“预期损失”这一项
local banks, when assessing the loan classification, are
required to apply “forward-looking criteria”, including
future cash flow projections, when determining an
appropriate level of reserves
当进行贷款分类时,地方银行需要提供“预测标准”,
包括制定合适的储备水平所需要的预测现金流量表
Plans to complete adoption of IAS 39 in 2011
计划在2011年完成IAS 39 标准的全面实施工作
68
Provisions, reserves and NPLs in relation to total loans (As a % of total loans)
呆账准备金,储备金和不良贷款与贷款总额的关系表(百分比)
18. 69
Provisions and reserves in relation to NPLs and macro variables (%)
呆账准备金,储备金与不良贷款和宏观变量的关系表(百分比)
70
总结
Regulatory provision and loan classification 监管
准备金和贷款分类
Accounting provision vs regulatory reserve 会计准
备金 vs监管储备
Impact from Basel II 新巴塞尔标准的影响
Provision in Asia countries亚洲国家的准备金规定
71
答答答答问时间问时间问时间问时间