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INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING
AND USE OF HEURISTICS IN
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
EDUCATION

Rodica Ianole
Viorel Cornescu

University of Bucharest
Faculty of Business and Administration
CONTEXT




                                                           20.11.12
   The creative dominant trait of entrepreneurs is
    commonly associated with a more flexible process
    of decision-making

   The behavioral economics literature on cognitive
    biases and heuristics explores in depth the
    decisional mechanisms and intuitive shortcuts
    within the entrepreneurial behavioral



                                                       2
SCOPE




                                                            20.11.12
   Entrepreneurial decisions are inclined to be more
    susceptible to certain biases and heuristics,
    compared to the adherence to the framework of
    rational decision-making?




                                                        3
SPECIFIC FOCUS OF OUR
RESEARCH




                                                           20.11.12
   Students preparing to become potential future
    entrepreneurs (study profile – Business
    Administration)

   Critical thinking upon different decision theory
    problems.

   Method: content analysis of their framing and
    some arguments for certainty, risk and
    uncertainty environmental conditions.
                                                       4
CONTENT ANALYSIS




                                                                 20.11.12
   The sample 161 undergraduate Business
    Administration students, in their second year of
    study, split in two series of 78 and respectively 83
    students.

   The „experimental” frame through which we have
    collected the data was represented by their final
    examination at the discipline Decision Theory

   The first section of the exam consisted in five open
    questions regarding particular situations and their
    characterization in terms of decisional environments,
    normative and descriptive models of decision, types of
    decision, rationality and types of utility.              5
20.11.12
    The question was asking the students to explain
     if the decision presented through a particular
     affirmation was a decision under certainty, under
     risk or under uncertainty.

1.   You decide to buy a lottery ticket for the extraction
     that will take place next week
2.   You decide to apply for a master program in
     corporative finances at a US top university


                                                             6
RESULTS




                                                                  20.11.12
   First question: 55,12% of the students have coined the
    right answer of risky environment (43 papers),
    23,07% have inclined towards uncertainty (18 papers)
    and 17, 94% stated certainty (14 papers); there were
    also three blank answers.

   Second question: 30,14% (25 papers) of the students
    have recognized the right answer of uncertainty in
    terms of two possible main results, being accepted or
    not, but without the possibility of associating a
    specific probability value. 57,83% of students stated
    certainty and a very small slice of 1% stated risk,
    admitting there is a probability of not being accepted.   7
DISCUSSION




                                                                  20.11.12
   Only from this incipient part of the analysis, we can
    notice that intuitive thinking is a strong resort when
    making decisions.

   We can postulate that this type of intuition is formed
    on the standard premises of economic knowledge,
    triggering some automatic responses and leaving too
    little space to a proper analysis of a problem in terms
    of individual and the environment.

   The overconfidence bias, along with the status-quo
    may partially explain these preliminary results.
                                                              8
LIMITATIONS




                                                              20.11.12
   Locus of control - it might be that the groups that
    chose “certainty” might have gone for this answer
    because they focused strictly on what they can
    control and beyond that the world is “given”.

   Methodological issues - the association with the
    three types of decision environment can be
    detrimental in the long-run because it focuses too
    much on the idea that the student answering the
    questions actually know what the three
    environments actually entail.
                                                          9

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Crebus ianole rodica

  • 1. INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING AND USE OF HEURISTICS IN ENTREPRENEURSHIP EDUCATION Rodica Ianole Viorel Cornescu University of Bucharest Faculty of Business and Administration
  • 2. CONTEXT 20.11.12  The creative dominant trait of entrepreneurs is commonly associated with a more flexible process of decision-making  The behavioral economics literature on cognitive biases and heuristics explores in depth the decisional mechanisms and intuitive shortcuts within the entrepreneurial behavioral 2
  • 3. SCOPE 20.11.12  Entrepreneurial decisions are inclined to be more susceptible to certain biases and heuristics, compared to the adherence to the framework of rational decision-making? 3
  • 4. SPECIFIC FOCUS OF OUR RESEARCH 20.11.12  Students preparing to become potential future entrepreneurs (study profile – Business Administration)  Critical thinking upon different decision theory problems.  Method: content analysis of their framing and some arguments for certainty, risk and uncertainty environmental conditions. 4
  • 5. CONTENT ANALYSIS 20.11.12  The sample 161 undergraduate Business Administration students, in their second year of study, split in two series of 78 and respectively 83 students.  The „experimental” frame through which we have collected the data was represented by their final examination at the discipline Decision Theory  The first section of the exam consisted in five open questions regarding particular situations and their characterization in terms of decisional environments, normative and descriptive models of decision, types of decision, rationality and types of utility. 5
  • 6. 20.11.12  The question was asking the students to explain if the decision presented through a particular affirmation was a decision under certainty, under risk or under uncertainty. 1. You decide to buy a lottery ticket for the extraction that will take place next week 2. You decide to apply for a master program in corporative finances at a US top university 6
  • 7. RESULTS 20.11.12  First question: 55,12% of the students have coined the right answer of risky environment (43 papers), 23,07% have inclined towards uncertainty (18 papers) and 17, 94% stated certainty (14 papers); there were also three blank answers.  Second question: 30,14% (25 papers) of the students have recognized the right answer of uncertainty in terms of two possible main results, being accepted or not, but without the possibility of associating a specific probability value. 57,83% of students stated certainty and a very small slice of 1% stated risk, admitting there is a probability of not being accepted. 7
  • 8. DISCUSSION 20.11.12  Only from this incipient part of the analysis, we can notice that intuitive thinking is a strong resort when making decisions.  We can postulate that this type of intuition is formed on the standard premises of economic knowledge, triggering some automatic responses and leaving too little space to a proper analysis of a problem in terms of individual and the environment.  The overconfidence bias, along with the status-quo may partially explain these preliminary results. 8
  • 9. LIMITATIONS 20.11.12  Locus of control - it might be that the groups that chose “certainty” might have gone for this answer because they focused strictly on what they can control and beyond that the world is “given”.  Methodological issues - the association with the three types of decision environment can be detrimental in the long-run because it focuses too much on the idea that the student answering the questions actually know what the three environments actually entail. 9