We surveyed our office leasing professionals in Asia in early September 2012. Based on the findings of our Survey, Colliers Asia Office Leasing Market Confidence Index was at 55.1% in 3Q 2012 (2Q 2012: 64.2%), indicating that market participants are holding positive views on market outlook but their confidence is not as strong as previous quarter.
2. executive Colliers International is delighted to present the results of our 3Q 2012 Asia Office Leasing Survey.
We surveyed all of our office leasing professionals in Asia through an on-line questionnaire in early
summary September 2012.
Based on the findings of our Survey and the methodology of Diffusion Index (DI), Colliers Asia Office Leasing Market Confidence Index was
at 55.1% in 3Q 2012 (2Q 2012:64.2%), indicating that market participants are holding positive views on market outlook but their confidence
is not as strong as previous quarter.
The sub-index of real estate requirements decreased to 60.4% in 3Q 2012 from 78.9% in 2Q 2012. It indicates the office tenants are seeking
for expansion while the pace of expansion was less aggressive. In terms of rental expectations, market expectation is less strong when
compared with 2Q 2012 since the reading of the rental expectations sub-index decreased to 67.0% in 3Q 2012 from 72.2% in 2Q 2012.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Market
Confidence Index
MAIN-Index 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012
Market Confidence 62.9% 64.2% 55.1%
sub-Index 1Q 2012 2Q 2012 3Q 2012
New Leasing Inquiry 52.8% 54.4% 51.4%
Real Estate Requirements 79.3% 78.9% 60.4%
Vendors’ Expectations 49.4% 51.1% 41.5%
Rental Expectations 70.0% 72.2% 67.0%
The readings of the Index and Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.
A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
3. NEW INQUIRY
GROWING AT
SLOWER PACE
New Leasing Inquiry
The overall level of new office leasing inquiry decreased in 3Q 2012. As reported, there were 25.5% of our brokers saying
the level of inquiry was an increase, up from 23.3% in 2Q 2012. However, 22.6% of our brokers saw a decline in new leasing
inquiry (2Q 2012: 14.4%). The diffusion index of clients’ new leasing enquiry was at 51.4% in 3Q 2012, decreased from the
54.4% in 2Q 2012.
Compared to last quarter, how do you see the level of new leasing inquiries in 3Q 2012?
New Leasing Inquiry Sub-Index
The readings of the Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.
A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
4. BANKING AND
FINANCE IS THE
MOST ACTIVE
Most Active Tenant Groups
Similar to the preceding quarter, the most active office tenants groups remained “Banking, Finance, Insurance (FIRE)” and
“IT” sectors during 3Q 2012.
Breaking down by key business sectors, rise in activity happened in “Banking, Finance, Insurance (FIRE)”, “IT” and
“Professional Consultants” sectors.
Which of the following tenant groups are the most active in your market?
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
5. LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN
EXPANSIONS
Clients’ Real Estate Requirements
About 41.5% of our brokers saw an increase of real estate requirements from their clients; the percentage was lower than
that in 2Q 2012 (i.e. 62.2%). Across the various key markets in the region, 20.8% of our brokers said a contraction of their
clients’ real estate requirements during 3Q 2012, compared with 4.4% in previous quarter.
The reading of diffusion index of clients’ real estate requirements was at 60.4% in 3Q 2012 as compared to 78.9% in 2Q
2012, suggesting the clients are less aggressive in taking on additional space in 3Q 2012.
In view of your clients’ requirements, what are their real estate requirements?
Real Estate Requirements Sub-Index
The readings of the Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.
A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
6. VENDORS
BECAME
CAUTIOUS
Vendors’ Expectations
In 3Q 2012, over half of the vendors (ie. 54.7%) offered the same level of leasing incentives as previous quarter. More
vendors (31.1% in 3Q 2012 vs 23.3% in 2Q 2012) were being more generous in offering leasing incentives.
The reading of diffusion index of vendors’ expectations was at 41.5% in 3Q 2012. Since it was below the 50%-mark, it signified
that vendors generally took a cautious view on the market and were being more generous in offering lease incentives.
Looking at leasing incentives (free rent, cash, etc), are landlords in your market :
Vendors’ Expectations Sub-Index
The readings of the Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.
A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
7. POSITIVE
EXPECTATIONS
ON RENTAL
GROWTH
Rental Expectations
On a forward-looking basis, fewer brokers (46.2% in 3Q 2012 vs 56.7% in 2Q 2012) expected rents to increase over the
next 12 months. Meanwhile, more brokers (41.5% in 3Q 2012 vs 31.1% in 2Q 2012) believed rents will remain stable over the
next 12 months.
The reading of diffusion index of rental expectations was at 67.0% in 3Q 2012, decreased from 72.2% in 2Q 2012. Since it
was above the 50%-mark, our brokers remain positive on prospective trend of office rentals in the next 12 months.
Over the next 12 months, do you expect rents in your market to:
Rental Expectations Sub-Index
The readings of the Sub-Index fall within the range of 0% to 100%.
A reading above 50% indicates the market trend is generally improving; below 50% indicates that it is generally declining.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
8. methodology
Short questionnaires comprising five key questions had been sent to our office leasing brokers in the Asian region via an on-
line survey platform during the first week of September 2012.
Using the technique of * Diffusion Index (DI), the results were used to develop four sub-indices covering (1) New Leasing
Inquiry, (2) Real Estate Requirements, (3) Vendors’ Expectations and (4) Rental Expectations. After all, Colliers Asia Office
Leasing Market Confidence Index is a composite index based on the above four diffusion indexes with equal weights.
* Diffusion Index (DI) = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
P1 = Percentage number of respondents that reported an improvement
P2 = Percentage number of respondents that reported no change
P3 = Percentage number of respondents that reported a deterioration
A reading above 50 percent indicates the market trend is generally improving;
below 50 percentage indicates that it is generally declining.
The Main Index
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Market Confidence Index (“Leasing Confidence Index”) is the main index. It is constructed by
using the methodology of Diffusion Index (DI) and the consolidation of four component sub-indices - New Leasing Inquiry,
Real Estate Requirements, Vendors’ Expectations and Rental Expectations. Applying equal weighs to the four sub-indices, the
Leasing Confidence Index with reading above 50% indicates the Asia leasing market confidence is general improving. The
Index indicates the market confidence is deteriorating when it reads below 50%.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Market Confidence Index = (DI1 + DI2 + DI3 + DI4 )/4
Four Sub-indices
The construction of the four sub-indices is based on the each of the following four questions.
New Leasing Inquiry Index
Data is taken from the responses to the question – “Compared to last quarter, how do you see the level of new leasing
inquiries in the current quarter?”
P1 = Percentage number of respondents that reported an improvement of inquiries
P2 = Percentage number of respondents that reported no change
P3 = Percentage number of respondents that reported a deterioration of inquires
Diffusion Index (DI1) of New Leasing Inquiry = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
This is a measurement of the change of clients’ inquiries during the quarterly period. Based on the methodology of Diffusion
Index, the reading above 50% indicates the level of new leasing inquiries is improving during the quarter, and it is declining
when it read below 50%.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
9. Real Estate Requirements
Data is taken from the responses to the question – “In view of your clients’ requirements, what are their real estate
requirements?
P1 = Percentage number of respondents that reported an expansion of clients’ requirements
P2 = Percentage number of respondents that reported no change
P3 = Percentage number of respondents that reported a contraction of clients’ requirements
Diffusion Index (DI2) of Real Estate Requirement = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
This is a measurement of the change of clients’ requirements. Based on the methodology of Diffusion Index, the reading above
50% indicates the level of clients’ requirement is expanding during the quarter, and it is contracting when it read below 50%.
Vendors’ Expectations
Data is taken from the responses to the question – “Looking at leasing incentives (free rent, cash, etc), are landlords in your
market are being more generous, about the same or being less generous?
P1 = Percentage number of respondents that reported landlords are less generous
P2 = Percentage number of respondents that reported about the same
P3 = Percentage number of respondents that reported landlords are more generous
Diffusion Index (DI3) of Vendors’ Expectations = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
This is a measurement of vendors’ expectations on the leasing market with reference to the change of lease incentives being
offered to their tenants. Based on the methodology of Diffusion Index, the reading above 50% indicates vendors’ expectations
are improving during the quarter, but it is contracting when it read below 50%.
Rental Expectations
Data is taken from the responses to the question – “Over the next 12 months, do you expect rents in your market to increase
quickly, increase slowly, remain fairly flat or decrease slowly?
P1 = Percentage number of respondents that reported rents to increase either quickly or slowing in the next 12 months
P2 = Percentage number of respondents that reported rents to remain fairly flat in the next 12 months
P3 = Percentage number of respondents that reported rents to decrease slowly in the next 12 months
Diffusion Index (DI4) of Rental Expectations = (P1*1) + (P2*0.5) + (P3*0)
This is a measurement of rental expectations on the leasing market with reference to the read of brokers. Based on the
methodology of Diffusion Index, the reading above 50% indicates rental expectations over the next 12 months are positive
during the quarter, but it is negative when it read below 50%.
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey
3Q 2012
10. For further details, please contact:
GREATER CHINA Taipei, Taiwan Lahore, Pakistan
Beijing, China 49F TAIPEI 101 TOWER Suite 2, Mezzanine 2, Executive Floors
502 Tower W3, Oriental Plaza No. 7 Xin Yi Road Sec 5, Taipei 110 Al-Qadir Heights, Main Boulevard
No 1 East Changan Avenue Tel : 886 2 8101 2000 New Garden Town, Lahore, Pakistan
Dongcheng District Fax : 886 2 8101 2345 Tel : 92 42 3584 3474-6
Beijing 100738 Andrew Liu Fax : 92 21 3563 6382
Tel : 86 10 8518 1633 Managing Director Ahmed Khan
Fax : 86 10 8518 1638 andrew.liu@colliers.com Country Manager
Amanda Gao ahmed.khan@colliers.com
Managing Director, North China NORTH ASIA
amanda.gao@colliers.com Islamabad, Pakistan
Seoul, South Korea ONE Constitution Avenue, Adjacent Convention
10F Korea Tourism Organization Bldg. Centre & Diplomatic Enclave Islamabad,
Chengdu, China
10 Da-dong Pakistan
Unit 1504 Yanlord Landmark
Jung-gu, Seoul 100-180 Tel : 92 51 834 7433
1 Renmin South Road Section 2
Tel : 82 2 6740 2000 Fax : 92 51 831 4737
Chengdu 610016
Fax : 82 2 318 2015 Waleed Murrawat
Tel : 86 28 8658 6288
Jay Yun Regional Sales Manager
Fax : 86 28 8672 3226
Senior Director & General Manager waleed.murrawat@colliers.com
Jacky Tsai
jay.yun@colliers.com
General Manager
jacky.tsai@colliers.com Manila, Philippines
Tokyo, Japan 10F Tower 2 RCBC Plaza
Halifax Building Ayala Avenue, Makati City
Guangzhou, China
3-16-26 Roppongi Philippines1226
702 Teem Tower
Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-0032 Japan Tel : 63 2 888 9988
208 Tianhe Road
Tel : 81 3 5563 2111 Fax : 63 2 845 2612
Guangzhou 510620
Fax : 81 3 5563 2100 David Young
Tel : 86 20 3819 3888
James Fink Managing Director
Fax : 86 20 3819 3899
Senior Managing Director david.a.young@colliers.com
Eric Lam
james.fink@colliers.co.jp
Managing Director
eric.lam@colliers.com Singapore
SOUTH EAST ASIA 1 Raffles Place
Shanghai, China #45-00 One Raffles Place
Jakarta, Indonesia
16F Hong Kong New World Tower Singapore 048616
10F and 14F World Trade Centre
300 Huaihai Zhong Road Tel : 65 6223 2323
Jl Jenderal Sudirman
Shanghai 200021 Fax : 65 6222 4901
Kav 29-31 Jakarta 12920
Tel : 86 21 6141 3688 Dennis Yeo
Tel : 62 21 521 1400
Fax : 86 21 6141 3699 Managing Director
Fax : 62 21 521 1411
Lina Wong Singapore & Industrial Services | Asia
Mike Broomell
Managing Director dennis.yeo@colliers.com
Managing Director
East and South West China mike.broomell@colliers.com
Investment Services, China Bangkok, Thailand
lina.wong@colliers.com 17/F Ploenchit Center
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
2 Sukhumvit Road
c/o Mark Lampard*
Hong Kong, HKSAR Klongtoey, Bangkok 10110
Managing Director
5701 Central Plaza Tel : 66 2 656 7000
Corporate Solutions | Asia Pacific
18 Harbour Road Fax : 66 2 656 7111
Te : 65 6531 8601
Wanchai, Hong Hong Simon Landy
Fax : 65 6557 0649
Company Licence No: C-006052 Executive Chairman
mark.lampard@colliers.com
Tel : 852 2828 9888 simon.landy@colliers.com
* Based in Singapore
Fax : 852 2828 9899
Richard Kirke (E-279867) Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Karachi, Pakistan
Managing Director Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Suite 2-A, level 2, Harbour House
richard.kirke@colliers.com 7F Bitexco Building
37-A, Lalazar Avenue
Piers Brunner (E-183614) 19-25 Nguyen Hue Street
Beach Hotel Road, Off. M.T Khan Road
Chief Executive Officer - Asia District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Karachi, Pakistan
piers.brunner@colliers.com Tel : 84 8 827 5665
Tel : 92 21 3561 2550-2
Fax : 84 8 827 5667
Fax : 92 21 3563 6382
Peter Dinning
Mohammed Yasir Qidwai
General Director
Senior Manager, Corporate Solutions &
peter.dinning@colliers.com
Research
research.khi@colliers.com
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey www.colliers.com
11. Hanoi, Vietnam New Delhi, India Perth, Australia
10F, Capital Tower Building 204/205, 2nd Floor Level 19, 140 St Georges Terrace
109 Tran Hung Dao Street Kanchenjunga Building Perth WA 6000
Hoan Kiem District, Hanoi, Vietnam 18 Barakhamba Road Tel : 61 8 9261 6666
Tel : 84 4 3941 3277 New Delhi 110 001 Fax : 61 8 9261 6665
Fax : 84 4 3941 3278 Tel : 91 11 4360 7500 K. Imran Mohiuddin
Dane Moodie Fax : 91 11 2335 6624 State Chief Executive
Managing Director Ajay Rakheja imran.mohiuddin@colliers.com
dane.moodie@colliers.com Office Director
ajay.rakheja@colliers.com Sydney, Australia
Level 12, Grosvenor Place
INDIA
Pune, India 225 George Street
Bengaluru, India Bramha Luxury Hotels Ltd. Sydney NSW 2000
Prestige Garnet, Level 2, Unit No. 201/202 (Le Meridien Pune) Tel : 61 2 9257 0222
36 Ulsoor Road, Bengaluru 560 042 101 R.B.M. Road Fax : 61 2 9251 3297
Tel : 91 80 4079 5500 Pune 411 001, Maharashtra Malcom Tyson
Fax : 91 80 4112 3131 Tel : 91 20 4120 6435 State Chief Executive
Goutam Chakraborty Fax : 91 20 4120 6434 malcom.tyson@colliers.com
Office Director Suresh Castellino
goutam.chakraborty@colliers.com Office Director Auckland, New Zealand
suresh.castellino@colliers.com SAP Tower, Level 27
Chennai, India 151 Queen Street
Unit 1C, 1st Floor, Heavitree Complex Auckland 1140
23 Spurtank Road, Chetpet AUSTRALASIA
Tel : 64 9 358 1888
Chennai 600 031 Adelaide, Australia Fax : 64 9 358 1999
Tel : 91 44 2836 1064 Level 10, 99 Gawler Place Mark Synnott
Fax : 91 44 2836 1377 Adelaide SA 5000 Chief Executive Officer, New Zealand
Kaushik Reddy Tel : 61 8 8305 8888 mark.synnott@colliers.com
Office Director Fax : 61 8 8231 7712
kaushik.reddy@colliers.com James Young Wellington, New Zealand
State Chief Executive Level 10, 36 Customhouse Quay
Gurgaon, India james.young@colliers.com Wellington 6011
1st Floor, Technopolis Building Tel : 64 4 473 4413
DLF Golf Course Brisbane, Australia Fax : 64 4 499 1550 (Agency)
Main Sector Road Level 20 Central Plaza One : 64 4 470 3902 (Valuation)
Sector 54, Gurgaon 122 002 345 Queen Street Richard Findlay
Tel : 91 124 4375807 Brisbane QLD 4000 Managing Director
Fax : 91 124 4375806 Tel : 07 3229 1233 richard.findlay@colliers.com
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Office Director Simon Beirne
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simon.beirne@colliers.com
Kolkata, India
Infinity Business Centre, Infinity Benchmark Canberra, Australia
Level 18, Room No 13, Plot G - 1 Ground floor, 21-23 Marcus Clarke Street
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Kolkata 700 091, West Bengal Tel : 61 2 6257 2121
Tel : 91 33 2357 6501 Fax : 61 2 6257 2937
Fax : 91 33 2357 6502 Paul Powderly
Soumya Mukherjee State Chief Executive
Office Director paul.powderly@colliers.com
soumya.mukherjee@colliers.com
Melbourne, Australia
Mumbai, India Level 32 367 Collins Street
31-A, 3rd Floors, Film Centre Melbourne VIC 3000
68 Tardeo Road Tel : 61 3 9629 8888
Mumbai 400 034 Fax : 61 3 9629 8549
Tel : 91 22 4050 4500 John Marasco
Fax : 91 22 2351 4272 State Chief Executive
Prabhu Raghavendra john.marasco@colliers.com
Office Director
prabhu.raghavendra@colliers.com
George McKay
South Asia Director
Office & Integrated Services
george.mckay@colliers.com
Colliers Asia Office Leasing Survey www.colliers.com