Ga renewable energy club - 4 dec 2014 - presentation boris schucht ceo 50 hertz

The German “Energiewende”
General Assembly of the “Renewable Energy Club”
Brussels, 04.12.2014, Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz

Agenda
1 50Hertz and its role in the German Energiewende
2 RES generation – high expansion speed
3
System balance – challenges imposed by RES4
6 Outlook – challenges ahead
5 Control power – maintaining balance between load and generation
Grid Extension Projects – necessary to implement Energiewende

3 / 58General Assembly of the Renewables Energy Club / Brussels, 04.12.2014 / Boris Schucht, CEO 50Hertz: „The German Energiewende“
50Hertz is a fully unbundled TSO and part
of the Elia Group
Our shareholders are the Belgian TSO Elia
(60% of shares) and the Australian infra-
structure fund IFM Investors (40% of
shares)
50Hertz operates in eight German federal
states: Berlin, Hamburg, Brandenburg,
Mecklenburg Western Pomerania, Saxony,
Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and Schleswig-
Holstein
We ensure the supply of electricity to over
18 million people in Germany
50Hertz – regionally rooted and part of an international group
Amprion
Transnet
BW
TenneT
TenneT
Energinet.dk
Source: 50Hertz

The history of 50Hertz
1995 2002 2010200119901964 20082006
Verbundnetz
Elektroenergie
VEAG
Creation
Electrical
reunification VEAG bought
by Vattenfall
VE Transmission Set-up 50Hertz sale
to Elia and IFM
Asset Transfer von
HH und B HV-Grids VE T Carve Out

50Hertz’ core figures at a glance – a renewable energy TSO
par excellence
109,360 km² (31%)
9,995 km (29%)
~98 TWh (20%)
~16 GW (21%)
Surface area
Total length of lines
Maximum load
Energy consumption
(based on electricity supplied to
final consumers acc. to EEG)
Installed capacity:
- Renewables
- Wind
Turnover
- Grid
Values 2013 (Share in GER)
44,539 MW (~24%)
22,727 MW (~28%)
13,408 MW (~40%)
8.6 billion €
0.9 billion €
Workforce 821
Source: 50Hertz, as at 31.12.2013

50Hertz‘ responsibility for the society includes secure system
operations, RES integration and market development
Market facilitator
Trustee for RES processes
Catalyst of the electricity market development,
esp. in northern and central-eastern Europe
Responsible for the financial management of
the renewable energy processes
Source: 50Hertz
System operator
Responsible for the control and balancing of
the transmission system, 24/7: frequency and
voltage control, congestion management
Transmission grid operator
Responsible for the operation, maintenance and
expansion of ultra-high voltage lines and
connection of offshore wind farms

The main challenges of the “Energiewende” for the electricity
system
Energiewende
Fossile Welt
Rapid growth of renewable and decentralised generation
Decreasing profitability of conventional generation within
the current market design
Legal and procedural framework must be further
developed to keep pace with renewables expansion
(first important steps have been made in 2014)
Increasing gap between grid development and
renewables development
Limited public acceptance for the consequences of the
“Energiewende” (Infrastructure, costs)
Competitiveness of energy prices and inefficiencies in the
former development

Agenda
3

RES generation in Germany is rapidly increasing, this trend is
likely to continue in the future
wind photovoltaics biomass
Coloured area proportional to installed capacity
2000 2006 2013
Source: 50Hertz, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, Google Earth
EEG figures end of 2013:
Capacity: >83 GW
Energy: ~125 TWh
EEG figures end of 2013:
Capacity: >83 GW
Energy: ~125 TWh

Forecasted RES capacity in Germany
Wind and photovoltaics remain dominant players in RES development.
34 39 42 45 48 51
1
2 3
5 6 732
35
37
39
41
42
6
6
6
6
6
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
others
biomass
wind onshore
wind offshore
photovoltaics
Installed capacity
in GW
Trend-Scenario to determine the RES-surcharge in 2014
Source: r2b

0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Photovoltaics Wind Biomass Other RE
EEG generations units in the 50Hertz grid area:
Installed capacity and feed-in
Asat31/12/2013;
Source:50Hertz
Successful development in the 50Hertz grid area. Electricity production from
renewable energies covers approx. 37 % (36,7 TWh) of electricity consumption.
11304
13395
15101
18008
21915
23309
22,8
23,7 24,8
28,2 35,0
36,7
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Feed-in in TWh
InstalledcapacityinMWFeed-ininTWh
Asat:31/12/2013;
Source:EEG-Anlagestammdaten

0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
others
biomass
wind onshore
wind offshore
photovoltaics
Renewables energies in the 50Hertz grid area:
Present situation and forecast of installed capacity
Installed capacity in MW
As at 31/12/2013
2013 EEG mid-term forecast scenario „trend“
Forecast
Current
situation
Installed capacity late 2013*
wind 13564 MW
photovoltaics 7758 MW
biomass 1707 MW
others 280 MW
Total 23309 MW
2100
8100
15130
26530
32650
37380
* As at July 2014, Source: 50Hertz

Agenda
3

Grid extension projects at 50Hertz
Projects since 2009
Completed 250 km
Under construction 240 km
Approval procedure ~ 290 km
Existing grid
Planning procedure
Approval procedure
Approved
Under construction
Completed
Substation (construction)
Substation (50Hertz)
ApprovedApproved 240 km

Development of offshore projects in the Baltic Sea
2011: Start operation Baltic 1
2012: Start construction Baltic 2
2014: Grid link Baltic 2
shortly before completion
2014: Contracting of wind farm operators
at „westlich Adlergrund“
Potential wind energy (Baltic Sea):
Approximately 5,000 MW
Grid link at planning stage
Grid link under construction
Operating grid link
Grid connection under construction
Operating grid connection
Reduced offshore goals are compatible
with a consistent extension in the Baltic Sea.

The Federal Requirement Plan as
foundation for the grid expansion
- Basis: 2012 Grid Development
Plan of the TSOs
- 36 projects confirmed
- 3 HVDC corridors
- Current Grid Development Plan
confirms FRP
- Law of FRP about to be updated
in 2016
2012 Federal Requirement Plan
Act adopted by German
Bundestag in June 2013

RESULTS 2. DRAFT NEP 2014
In spite of an intensive public consultation and a clear agreement
to the grid extension of all federal states in Germany in 2013,
the grid development plan is now put into question in principal !
... AND SOME MEDIA HEADLINES

Congestion Management / Bidding Zones
Studies show that price differences between
Germany North and Germany South of 6 €/MWh
could be expected.
Germany
North
Germany
South
Austria
If structural congestions persist and redispatch volumes
exceed certain limits (>5% of load), market splitting
could be an option.
While reducing redispatch costs, this can have
significant drawbacks in the market:
− Higher costs for RES integration due to lower
market prices in areas with high RES infeed.
− Inefficient dispatch and higher overall system costs
− Lower liquidity and higher risk premiums
− Higher costs for balancing due to missing portfolio
effects and lower liquidity.
Advantages are a better international coordination due
to market coupling and better price signals to include all
possible market options.
Activities Finish
ENTSO-E Bidding
Zone Study
2016
Committee work on
market design
continuous
Coordination with Elia on
market design issues
continuous

Agenda
3

High speed of RES development imposes significant
challenges on system balance
RES forecasts inaccuracy, very short-term PV forecast
changes
Steeper RES power ramps in the future
RES trading errors because of RES trading on an hourly
basis
Price spikes in the intraday market
High frequency volatility and challenging frequency
control
1h
¼h
..

Frequency control is getting more and more challenging due
to steep RES power ramps and RES forecasts inaccuracy
Source: 50Hertz
49,92
49,94
49,96
49,98
50
50,02
50,04
50,06
50,08
~0,07Hz
~0,09Hz
Average intraday frequency volatility October – December 2013
Hz

Frequency control is getting more and more challenging
especially at hour change
Source: 50Hertz
Extreme frequency spikes on 17th October 2013
49,90
49,95
50,00
50,05
50,10
50,15
Maximum
Minimu
Critical frequency spikes (50.13 Hz) at hour change
Hz

Fluctuating wind power
Feed-in wind energy (01/12/2013 – 07/12/2013)Data feed-in of wind energy at 50Hertz (2013)
Maximum feed-in 11,064 MW
Minimal feed-in 0 MW
Biggest increase within ¼ hour +1,431 MW
Biggest decrease within ¼ hour -901 MW
Biggest difference between
Min and Max within one day
9,675 MW 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168
Feed-ininMW
Time in h
Prognose HochtrechnungForecast Extrapolated feed-in

Fluctuating photovoltaics
Data feed-in of pv at 50Hertz (2013)
Maximum feed-in 5.346 MW
Minimal feed-in 0 MW
Biggest increase within ¼ hour 1.594 MW
Biggest decrease within ¼ hour 752 MW
Biggest difference between
Min and Max within one day
5.346 MW
pv-feed-in (01/06/2013 – 07/06/2013)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168
Feed-ininMW
Time in h
Prognose HochrechnungForecast Extrapolated feed-in

Challenge
Increasing gradients in short
timeframes are getting more
and more relevant, due to:
1) Stronger gradients from
superposition of load, wind
and solar generation
2) Short term adjustments
due to forecast changes
Position 50Hertz
1) Strengthen incentives for
generators to be balanced
by Imbalance Settlement
Prices and create more
efficient balancing markets
2) Enforce intraday trading by
liquid markets and 15min
products
Challenges regarding System Balance –
example Solar eclipse
SolarInfeed(DE)
Time
Historical max.
(wind + solar) at
9 Nov 2013:
10.5 GW / 90min
Clear sky – no eclipse
Clear sky – eclipse
Cloudy sky – no eclipse
Cloudy sky – eclipse
Example: Solar eclipse on March 20th 2015
19,2 GW
/ 90min

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
-10 -7,5 -5 -2,5 0 2,5 5 7,5 10 12,5
Last
Last - Wind
Last - Wind - PV
Power ramps Germany 2013 – load still dominating but
this will change with further RES increase
As at 31/12/2013
GW/h
Negative max. power ramp Positive max. power ramp
Load
Load – Wind
Load – Wind – PV
Frequency

Power ramps caused by RES already amount to > 5 GW/h
and are expected to increase to max. ~15 GW/h in 2023
[GW] 2012 2023 2033
Maximum power ramps caused by wind and PV Consequences for the energy system
Very high volatility of RES feed-in
Extremely steep RES power ramps (>1,000
MW in 15 min in 2012)
Only limited feed-in stabilisation via
geographical distribution of RES facilities
Flexible, non-volatile power plants required
High requirements on RES forecasts,
controllability of RES generation facilities and
system operations
Maximum ramps per ¼ hour
Maximum ramps per hour
Source: 50Hertz

Trading of RES on an hourly base is a serious problem
because of steep power ramps
Source: 50Hertz
Load and trading products
Trading errors

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
P
P - Wind
P - Wind - PV
GW/h
Power ramps Germany 2013
Calculated based on 100% hourly RE-trading (no ¼-h-products used)
As at 31/12/2013
Marketing of PV via
One-hour-products would
have become a big problem
at the end of 2013 already.
Frequency

RES Forecasts
Rather inaccurate day-ahead forecasts for wind and solar, improving intraday
An up-to-date database and online availability of feed-in data is crucial
German TSOs still rely much on estimates because of missing real time data
There are only few service providers for online data and forecasts in the
German market that supply all TSOs and market participants
Enhanced RES forecasts are key for secure system operations
and a well functioning German market!
Plant DatabaseWeather Forecast Feed-in calculation Feed-in forecast
Sophisticated RES forecasts in place, further improvements are needed

Day-ahead PV forecasts can be highly inaccurate in case of
adverse weather conditions
0
5
10
15
20
3. Apr. 4. Apr. 5. Apr. 6. Apr.
Day-ahead PV forecast
Last intraday PV forecast
GW
Situation beginning of April 2013 (05/04/2013) Consequences of forecast errors
Major errors in the day-ahead PV forecast (up to
8800 MW in Germany)
Reasons for errors: dense fog
Last intraday forecast similar to PV extrapolation
PV extrapolation
Source: 50Hertz

TSOs have to deal with very short-term PV forecast changes
which amount to several GW
6:00 9:00 12:00
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00
MW
3,1 GW 1,2 GW
Source: 50Hertz
Intraday PV forecasts Intraday forecast changes for 12 pm

Inaccuracy of PV forecasts and very short-term PV forecast
changes lead to price spikes in the intraday market
0
100
200
300
400
3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr
ID-Min
ID-Max
ID-Average
Day-ahead
€/MWh
Intraday pices, situation beginning of April 2013

Agenda
3

Three control power types exist to keep frequency of 50Hz
Reserve
Regelung durch ÜNB
Reserve
30 s 15 min 60 minT0
Reserve
by suppliers
Inertia
aFRR mFRRPC
5 min
PC: Primary control
aFRR : Automatic Frequency Restoration Reserve = secondary control
mFRR: Manual Frequency Restoration Reserve = tertiary control (minute reserve)
Control by TSOs
Source: 50Hertz
So far there has been no need for significant changes in control power products, as control power prices
have been steadily decreasing in recent years. This might change as the Energiewende is gaining pace.

Despite a slight downward trend in the recent years, control
power volumes are expected to increase in the future
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GW
MRL_NEG
MRL_POS
SRL_NEG
SRL_POS
PRL
Development of control power volumes
Grid Control Cooperation (GCC) made it possible to reduce control power volumes in the recent years.
Despite GCC we expect an increase of control power in the future as RES share will continue to rise.
Source: 50Hertz

Increase of RES share has a strong impact on balancing
energy demand
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0 20 40 60 80 100
Installed RES capaity, [GW]
Balancing energy, [GW]
today
Increase of installed RES capacity by 1 GW leads to increase of balancing energy demand by 50-60 MW
Model: Normally distributed load forecast mistakes, normally distributed RES forecast mistakes
Source: 50Hertz
Impact of RES on balancing energy demand

Integration of renewable
energies in control
power markets
Reduction of
conventional must
run capacity
Challenges regarding Renewables – Market integration
29.01.2011 31.01.2011 02.02.2011 04.02.2011 06.02.2011
-4.000
-2.000
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
Leistung[MW]
Windeinspeisung
Lippendorf
Reuter
Preilack
Boxberg
Schkopau
Schwarze Pumpe
Rostock
PSW Goldisthal
PSW Hohenwarte
PSW Markersbach
Wind
Powerinfeed[MW]
Coal
Water
Thermal generation during a winter storm

Control power prices are highly volatile and their
development is difficult to predict
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
m€
MRL_NEG MRL_POS SRL_NEG SRL_POS PRL
-
50
100
150
200
250
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
T€/MW*a
PRL SRL_POS SRL_NEG MRL_POS MRL_NEG
Development of control power costs Development of control power prices
Source: 50Hertz

In situations with major imbalances available control power
can be fully exhausted
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
Area Control Error (ACE) IGCC imbalance netting
SRL MRL
Notreserven Grenze der Regelfähigkeit von Deutschland
Control not possible any more
Control possible
ACE peaks (primary control energy of neighbour countries used)MW
Secondary control
Emergency reserve
Primary control
Limit of control capability in Germany
Source: 50Hertz
Activation of control power in Germany on 5th April 2013

New providers of control power are very welcome: Electric
boilers and a steel mill prequalified in the 50Hertz control area
Electric boilers Stadtwerke Schwerin
Three electric boilers prequalified for secondary
control (aFRR) provision
Up to 10 MW aFRR
Start of aFRR marketing in December 2013
Steel mill Hamburg
Electric furnace 3 of ArcelorMittal Hamburg GmbH
prequalified for tertiary control provision (mFRR)
Up to 70 MW mFRR
Start of mFRR marketing in 2010
Sources: Stadtwerke Schwerin, ArcelorMittal Hamburg GmbH

New providers of control power are very welcome: Batteries
prequalified in the 50Hertz control area
Source: YOUNICOS
Battery Berlin-Adlershof
Power: 1 MW
Capacity: 6.2 MWh
Technology: Lithium-Ion Sodium-Sulphur
Commissioning: 01/2012
Usage: primary control
Battery Schwerin
Power: 5 MW
Capacity: 5 MWh
Technology: Lithium-Ion
Commissioning: 09/2014
Usage: primary control

New providers of control power are very welcome: aluminium
electrolysis and Zuhausekraftwerke in the 50Hertz control area
Lichtblick pilot (Zuhausekraftwerke)
Joint project of LichtBlick Energie und Innovation
GmbH and German TSOs
Start in 2014 with 5 MW secondary control (aFRR)
Potential of up to 100 MW control power
Utilisation of storage potentials of the so-called
Zuhausekraftwerke (Home power plants)
Trimet project (aluminium electrolysis)
Provision of 30 MW primary control by TRIMET
Aluminium AG via aluminium electrolysis
Start of primary control marketing in 2011
Thanks to technology applied best control quality in
the 50Hertz control area
Sources: LichtBlick Energie und Innovation GmbH, TRIMET Aluminium AG

Integration of balancing markets to foster competition and
promote exchange of balancing services
Network code on Electricity Balancing
Integration, coordination and harmonisation of
electricity balancing rules
Harmonisation of products
Move from balancing on a national level to larger
markets allowing effective resources usage
Code submitted to ACER in December 2013
Pilot projects with 50Hertz participation
International Grid Control Cooperation (IGCC)
for imbalance netting in DE, BE, AT, DK, NL, SH,
CZ
Joint procurement of primary control with
Switzerland (25 MW) and Netherlands (35 MW)
Source: ENTSO-E; network codes.eu, Wikipedia

Agenda
3

Operational challenges ahead
The quality of RES and load forecasts has increased, but still should be further
developed.
Online data exchange between TSOs and their customers is to be further improved,
controllability of generators and loads in underlying grids should be ensured.
Large gradients of RES and changing weather forecasts are drivers for intraday
markets and ¼ hour products. Trading of ¼ hour products should be strengthened,
liquidity is to be further increased.
Source: 50Hertz
Those responsible for balancing groups should be motivated to improve balancing
group management. Higher penalties should ensure that balancing group deviations
are significantly reduced or are supporting a current situation.

Strategic challenges ahead
RES generators should participate in provision of control power and other ancillary
services.
To further promote decarbonisation of the electricity supply, new options for ancillary
services and flexibility tools must be made available.
Source: 50Hertz
Necessary preconditions should be established to increase demand flexibility,
especially in industrial and business customers segment.
Tendering of control power should be further developed towards new products and
market-oriented solutions.
Value of flexibility needs to be increased and supported by future market design.

Many thanks for your attention!
Boris Schucht
CEO 50Hertz
50Hertz Transmission GmbH
Eichenstraße 3A
12435 Berlin
www.50Hertz.com

Back up

Physical flow vs. commercial flow 50Hertz <-> PSE

Stress on European neighbour grids due to
unplanned load flows – 50Hertz-measures
Grid expansion
− reduces SoS-relevant
flows
− ensuring efficiency
and cost effectiveness
= challenge
− reduces SoS-relevant
flows
− investment required
− ensures SoS in entire
system
− enables integrated
European market
Redispatch
(„virtual PST“)
Phase shifters
(physical PST)
short-term middle-term long-term

Findings from vPST pilot phase
− helpful tool
− limitation of available redispatch capacity
− additional trading capacity was used
− installation of Phase Shift Transformers at the
German-Polish border
Charge by unplanned
power flows
Discharge by virtual PST
measures
Change of power plant
output
Trigger Power Flow Limit
PowerFlow
vPSTMeasure
vPST – first activation and main conclusions

Growing distributed generation goes along with
increasing system complexity
380 kV
110 kV
30 kV
0,4 kV
Electricity supply system – tomorrow
500 kV HVDC
• 149 DSOs in 50Hertz area
• More than 1400 wind farms on
different voltage levels
• Other RES generators
(mainly solar) with limited
availability of data
• Changing load flow patterns with
bi-directional flows
• New IT and communication tasks
among a huge number of players
50Hertz control area is an example
for such challenging environment

Principles for online data exchange and control
TSO
DSO 1 n
neighbour
TSOs
consumption
DSO 1 n
consumption
consumption
• Each network operator responsible for his
network
• Full transparency across networks and
voltage levels needed
• Online interaction between network
operators via connection points
• Data aggregation at connection points
possible in order to reduce complexity
• Intense coordination necessary to avoid
counter productive actions
• Support from German Regulator based on
a common data list and a stepwise
approach
Common understanding of German market
participants (BDEW consensus)

German market splitting is a realistic threat
- Without North-South grid extension,
congestion cannot be avoided (resp.
between 50Hertz and Tennet).
- Enduring congestion would call for
German market splitting:
- BNetzA and German TSOs are investigating
German-Austrian market splitting.
- Science and also EU are discussing market
splitting within Germany (see ENTSO-E
report).
- Swedish infringement case: Outcome has
been a market splitting in 4 areas according
to a EC decision.
- Strongest counter argument up to now
has been the planned grid extension.
Source: ENTSO-E Technical Report 2011/2012
Bottlenecks in German grid 2012
A German market splitting would make further grid extension across
different bidding areas extremely difficult.

Scenario for market splitting simulation 2023
NTCborderline
255 320
220
Electricity
Generation
Electricity
Demand
75
25070
Electricity
Generation
Electricity
Demand
RES –Generation
Conventional
Generation TWh
TWh
TWh
TWh
Generation 2023
Base: NEP Scenario B2023; NTC 12,5 GW
12,5 GW
NTC
RES –Generation
Conventional
Generation
- Market Splitting North-South as
widely discussed*
- German Grid Development Plan
(scenario B2023) assumed, leaving
out South East DC line.
- In order to avoid major redispatch
volumes, an NTC of 10 to 15 GW is
needed
- Rather low NTC needed to reduce
also lignite generation in 50Hertz
area with lowest variable costs
- Not necessarily the most efficient
bidding area cut.
* See ENTSO-e Bidding-Zone-Study, APG-Study 2012, Bettzüge 2014

Results of market splitting simulation 2023
Energy only market, German Grid Development Plan, Scenario B2023
40GW
12,5 GW
Average spot market price
40€/MWh
46€/MWh
electricity price increase in
Southern Germany.
NTC at
about 600 m€ p.a. additional costs
because of less efficient
generation dispatch.
less production in Northern
German, lower profitability of
plants and CHP. More reduction
of wind power in the North.

Overview: Impacts of inner-german price zones
Power exchange
prices
Increasing Power exchange prices
(+6 €/MWh) due to missing production
capacity and expensive technologies
(Gas, Hydro, PS, PV, )
Capacity markets
Significant higher capacity prices due
to need of new plants/capacity deficit
(+2-3 €/MWh)
Market split for different types of control power/Ancillary services leading to higher
prices in North and South.
Markets for
Ancillary Services
Slightly decreasing power exchange
prices due to cheap exceeding
production (wind, lignite); Conventional
and CHP are used more seldom
Lower capacity prices due to over
capacity
in South-Germany in North-Germany
EEG
Costs for EEG-support grow in North and South due to decreasing power
exchange prices leading to lower wind electricity value.
Higher production costs in North and South due to inefficiencies from about 600
Millionen Euro per year.

Ga renewable energy club - 4 dec 2014 - presentation boris schucht ceo 50 hertz

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