Brian Kelsey's take on growth, prosperity, and inequality in the Austin, Texas economy in 2015.

1. State of Human Capital in Austin
Growth, Prosperity, and Inequality
Brian Kelsey
Civic Analytics LLC
7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108
Austin, TX 78757
866-512-3835
brian@civicanalytics.com
http://civicanalytics.com

2. 2
• Population change (nom) #10
• Population growth (%) #2
• Job change (nom) #7
• Job growth (%) #1
• GDP change (nom) #21
• GDP growth (%) #3
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Jobs
are from 2000 to 2013. GDP is from 2001 to 2013 (2000 not available). Growth rankings (%) are among large MSAs.
For more on the Austin economy &
U.S. economic development trends
visit Insights at CivicAnalytics.com.
Austin’s Economic Development “Scorecard”:
Rank among large US metros since 2000

3. 3
Austin economy has grown at average pace
nearly twice what’s considered a good year
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Not adjusted for inflation.
1.2%
5.6%
9.0% 8.8%
10.0%
4.1%
6.4%
-1.8%
7.2%
5.9%
7.8%
3.8%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Austin MSA
U.S.
% Change in GDP (Nominal)
Average (2002-13)
Austin MSA 5.7%
U.S. 3.9%

4. 4
Dot-com lessons learned: Austin shrugged off
2008-2009 recession compared to 2000-01
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. Seasonally adjusted.
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Austin MSA
U.S.
Jan
‘09
Feb
‘10
July
‘01
Dec
‘03
Jan
1991
Aug
2014
Job Growth, 12-month rolling (SA)
AUS U.S.
2010-13 12% 5%
2000s 13% -1%
1990s 63% 18%

5. 5
Population growth has been Austin’s great
economic stabilizer during US recessions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates. Data is for Austin-Round Rock MSA. U.S. MSA is all metropolitan areas.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Austin MSA
U.S. (MSA)
Population Growth, 1970-2013
Austin MSA
lost jobs
Population growth in
Austin moderated a bit
in 2013 compared to
recent years, but still far
outpaced the national
rate of growth.
Austin’s population grew
by 2.7% in 2013, down
from 3.0% in 2012.

6. 6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey table B15002 and Census 2000 SF3 table P37. Wage data is from U.S.
Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators, 2013Q4 (latest available as of 02/09/15).
Bach Degree+
Pop Growth
2000-13
Rank
MSA
Total Pop
Growth
2000-13
Rank
MSA
Charlotte 102% 1 35% 5
Grand Rapids 93% 2 9% 33
Las Vegas 91% 3 45% 3
Austin 80% 4 49% 2
Raleigh 79% 5 51% 1
Riverside 74% 6 34% 8
Nashville 72% 7 27% 12
Orlando 66% 8 37% 4
San Antonio 66% 9 32% 9
Phoenix 63% 10 34% 6
Austin is winning the “war for talent” and to
the victor go the (higher earnings) spoils
Austin MSA has added 225,000
people with bachelor’s degree or
higher since 2000 (~17K per year).
Average annual earnings per worker
(age 25+) w/ a bachelor’s degree or
higher in Austin MSA are $93,768.
Hires (New): $61,416

7. 7
Wage (average) growth has been flat since
2003 despite Austin’s booming economy
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Home price data from Mark Sprague at Independence Title.
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
% US Metropolitan Portion (US MSA = 100)
Per Capita Income
Average Wage
Per Job
Average wage per job in
Austin MSA in 2003 was
$51,112 (2013 dollars),
compared to $51,943 in
2013, an average annual
increase of only 0.16%.
Meanwhile, average home
price in Austin (citywide)
was up 45% in nominal
terms and 15% in real
terms ($2013).

8. 8
Wage inequality has always existed but 1990s
created a “new normal” for Austin economy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. Earnings data in chart is for Q1 in each year and adjusted for inflation (2013 dollars).
Earnings data in text is 2013Q4 (latest available as of 02/09/15).
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Some College or Associate’s
HS Diploma
No HS Diploma
Average Annual Earnings Per Worker
Age 25+ (2013 dollars)
Bachelor’s+
In 1996, average earnings
per worker w/ bachelor’s or
higher in Austin MSA were
66% higher than a worker
w/ HS diploma (age 25+).
Today, they’re 97% higher.
Bachelor’s+ $93,768
SC/Associate’s $57,912
HS Diploma $47,976
No HS Diploma $38,880

9. 9
Wage inequality by race/ethnicity has widened
considerably due to education inequality
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. Earnings data in chart is for Q1 in each year and adjusted for inflation (2013 dollars). Earnings data in text is 2013Q4
(latest available as of 02/09/15). Educational attainment data in table is from U.S. Census Bureau, 2012 American Community Survey, Five-Year Estimates, Table C15002.
Asian Alone $73,584
White Alone $59,832
Hispanic $40,452
Black Alone $39,672
Wage gap between highest
& lowest average earnings
by race/ethnicity in Austin
has doubled since 1996.
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
$80,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Average Annual Earnings Per Worker
Age 25+ (2013 dollars)
White
Black
Hispanic
Bachelor’s+ ATX U.S.
Asian 67% 50%
White 49% 32%
Black 23% 18%
Hispanic 17% 13%
Asian

10. 10
Many early career workers are struggling to
keep pace w/ rising cost of living in Austin
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Workforce Indicators. Earnings data in chart is for Q1 in each year and adjusted for inflation (2013 dollars).
Average earnings for early
career workers (age 25-34)
have recovered much more
slowly than age 35+ since
2008-2009 recession.
In fact, average earnings per
worker age 25-34 were lower
in 2013 than they were ten
years earlier in real terms.
-7.5%
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
12.5%
15.0% Change in Average Annual Earnings Per Worker
Age 25-34 (2013 dollars)

11. 11
What do we make of all this?
For more on the Austin economy &
U.S. economic development trends
visit Insights at CivicAnalytics.com.
• Austin is adding bachelor’s+ people at
much faster pace than jobs are being
created for them—what is the ripple
effect on the labor market?
• The Human Capital cuts both ways—is
Austin’s success attracting & retaining
skilled workers undermining need for
sense of urgency & more investment
in human capital development?

12. 12
What do we make of all this?
For more on the Austin economy &
U.S. economic development trends
visit Insights at CivicAnalytics.com.
• Austin is among US leaders in growth
of middle-wage jobs ($13.84-$21.13
per hour)* despite popular narrative
suggesting otherwise—why?
• What is the proper role for economic
development policy in addressing the
inequality fueling #ATX4All—what, if
anything, can a city/region do?
*Middle-wage range identified by National Employment Law Project. For more information and examples of calculations see EMSI article:
http://www.economicmodeling.com/2013/10/03/middle-skill-jobs-that-have-survived-and-the-states-that-are-fostering-them/.

13. 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108
Austin, Texas 78757
@civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com