Brian Kelsey's presentation at City of Austin's Getting Connected event for small businesses at Palmer Events Center on 09/02/15.

1. State of Small Business in Austin
Economic Development
Brian Kelsey, Principal
Civic Analytics LLC
civicanalytics.com
@civicanalytics

2. 2
Presentation Overview
• Review state of Austin economy
• Review latest statistics on Austin
small businesses released by the
U.S. Census Bureau (Aug ’15)
• Big splash from Kauffman
• Growth challenges
• Big ideas

3. 3
Austin economy has grown nearly 3x faster than
US metro economy since recession ended 2009
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Real GDP Growth (2013 Dollars)
Austin MSA
USA (Metro Portion)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Austin’s economy grew by 17%
during 2009-2013, trailing San
Jose (20%) but outpacing most
other fast-growing peer regions
around the country, including
Portland (15%), Charlotte (14%),
Nashville 13%), Denver (10%),
Seattle (9%), and RDU (5%).

4. 4
National forecasting firms predicted “slow down”
for Austin MSA economy in 2015…not so fast?
Total nonfarm employment in
Austin has increased by 22,100
jobs so far in calendar year ’15
(YTD July) and by 30,900 jobs
compared to July 2014.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2013Jul
2013Aug
2013Sep
2013Oct
2013Nov
2013Dec
2014Jan
2014Feb
2014Mar
2014Apr
2014May
2014Jun
2014Jul
2014Aug
2014Sep
2014Oct
2014Nov
2014Dec
2015Jan
2015Feb
2015Mar
2015Apr
2015May
2015Jun
2015Jul
Job Growth, 12-Month % Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES). Total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted.

5. 5
Austin Economy: Partying like it’s 1999
• Unemployment rate in Austin (city)
was 3.0% in June—lowest period of
unemployment since dot-com era.
• Sales at Austin (city) businesses up
nearly 5% in 2014 from 2013.
• Real average wages in Austin MSA
increased by 1.6% in 2014 and are
finally nearly back to pre-dot-com
bust level (> $54,000/yr).
Sources: (1) Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS). Not seasonally adjusted. Data is for portion of Austin in Travis County. (2) Texas
Comptroller. Gross sales, adjusted for inflation. (3) Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW). All industries, adjusted for inflation.

6. 6http://www.kauffman.org/microsites/kauffman-index/rankings/metropolitan-area

7. 7
Small business receipts topped $43 billion in 2012
Austin MSA 2011 2012 Change Growth
Firms 31,118 32,451 1,333 4.3%
Employment 228,414 238,285 9,871 4.3%
Payroll $9.4 billion $9.9 billion $500 million 5.7%
Receipts N/A $43 billion N/A N/A
Small businesses (<100 employees)
make up 92% of all firms, 35% of total
employment, 29% of total payroll, and
20% of total receipts in Austin MSA.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (SUSB). Payroll adjusted for inflation (2012 Dollars).

8. Small Business (< 100 Emp), Austin MSA Employment % Total Emp
Accommodation and Food Services 39,352 46%
Professional, Scientific, Technical Services 32,510 47%
Health Care and Social Assistance 28,416 34%
Construction 21,233 55%
Retail Trade 18,963 21%
Admin/Support/WMRS 14,000 24%
Manufacturing 11,778 31%
Wholesale Trade 10,105 24%
8
Small business share of major industry sectors
Small businesses (<100 employees)
make up 92% of all firms, 35% of total
employment, 29% of total payroll, and
20% of total receipts in Austin MSA.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (SUSB). Payroll adjusted for inflation (2012 Dollars).

9. 9
Employees
Respondents
Number*
Difficulty
Average
Confidence
Average
1 to 10 19 3.1 2.8
11 to 50 15 3.5 2.5
51 to 125 7 3.6 2.4
126 to 500 6 2.5 2.8
501+ 3 2.3 3.7
Total (Ans) 50 3.1 2.7
Source: ATC Tech Talent Employer Survey. Second-stage firms have reached a growth stage of $1M to $50M in receipts and 10 to 100 employees. For more on second-stage company
research see Edward Lowe Foundation at http://edwardlowe.org/who-we-serve/secondstage. *Complete responses only (n = 50). Differences not statistically significant.
1 = Not difficult
2 = Somewhat difficult
3 = Difficult
4 = Very difficult
5 = Extremely difficult
1 = Not confident
2 = Somewhat confident
3 = Confident
4 = Very confident
5 = Extremely confident
0 = I don’t know
Overall, how
difficult is it to
find qualified
people to fill
job openings at
your company
in Austin?
How confident
are you that
Austin will be
able to meet
your future
workforce
demand?
ATX Challenge: Growth-stage tech small businesses
feeling disproportionate impact of hiring difficulty

10. 10
Big Ideas for Small Business in Austin
• How can we leverage opportunity
of Medical School and Innovation
District for small businesses?
• How can we facilitate participation
of small businesses in education &
workforce partnerships?
• SBDP is one of best city-managed
small business programs—what’s
needed to keep pace w/ growth?

11. 7600 Burnet Road, Suite 108
Austin, Texas 78757
@civicanalytics
http://civicanalytics.com