The document provides an economic overview of Spain for September 2022. Some key points:
- GDP growth is forecast to be 4.5% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023, while HICP inflation is forecast to be 8.7% in 2022 and 5.6% in 2023.
- The labor market saw a slowdown in job creation but an increase in social security affiliates of 3.3% year-over-year. Unemployment fell 9.7% year-over-year.
- International tourist arrivals increased 3.2 times compared to January-August 2021 but spending fell 7.8% compared to January-August 2019, before the pandemic
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Economy... at a glance October 2022
1. Economy…
at a glance
October 2022
2.9 2.8
1.4
3.5
2.7
2.1
Apr-22 Jun/Jul.-22 Sep/Oct.-23
Bank of Spain
Government
Bank of Spain economic forecasts (Bank of Spain)
3
4
5
6
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Social Security Affiliates
-24
-18
-12
-6
0
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Unemployed
Labour market Spain (M. Labour and Soc. Ec/M. Incl., Soc. Sec. and Migr. )
Sep. 22
20,180,287
y-o-y
+3.3%
Affiliates*
2,941,919
y-o-y
(+0.6% monthly)
-9.7%
Unemployed*
*Original series
% y-o-y change
Slowdown in the pace
of job creation
Increase in Soc. Sec. affiliates by Regions
% y-o-y
</= national average
> national average
+6.9%
+8.9%
+3.6%
+3.9%
+4.4%
+4.6%
International tourist arrivals to Spain (INE)
millions of
tourists
X 3.2times
Jan.- Aug. 22
48.1
r/ Jan.-Aug. 21
-17.2%
r/ Jan.-Aug. 19
Millions of cumulative tourists
x 3.5 r/ Jan.-Aug. 21
Expenditure
accumulated
Jan.-Aug. 22
-7.8% r/ Jan.-Aug. 19
€58,894.8 M
Top 6 Regions receiving tourists
Multiple r/ Jan.-Aug. 21 and % s/ total
2023
y-o-y
4.5% in 2022
+1.5%
GDP growth
y-o-y
8.7% in 2022
+5.6%
HICP inflation
% y-o-y change
GDP 2023
8.7
5.6
1.9
3.9
3.5
2.1
2022 2023 2024
HICP
HICP without
energy and food
Inflation
0
20
40
60
80
100
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May.
Jun.
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2019 (prepandemic)
2020 (pandemic)
2022
2. Economy… at a glance, a publication of the “Círculo de Empresarios” produced by its Department of Economy, contains information and opinion from reliable sources. However, the “Círculo de
Empresarios” does not guarantee its accuracy and does not take responsibility for any errors or omissions. This document is merely informative. As a result, the “Círculo de Empresarios” is not responsible
for any uses that may be made of the publication. The opinions and estimates of the Department can be modified without prior warning.
31
28
33
31
28
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
60.4
(Jun.21)
62.8
(Nov.21)
59.4
(May.21)
66.6
(Mar.21)
58.1
59.7
55
58.5
49 48.3 47.7 47.8
Spain Italy France Germany
Max. Sep-21 Sep-22
Global Digital Competitiveness Index 2022 (IMD)
Manufacturing and services PMI Eurozone (Markit)
Points (< 50: contraction of economic activity)
Sep. 22
r/ max. Jun. 21
-15p.
Manufacturing
r/ max. Jul. 21
Services
-7.6p.
Trade in goods and services US (BEA)
Points
Manufacturing PMI
Top 5 (63 economies)
28. Spain
…………..
1. Denmark
2. US
5. Switzerland
3. Sweden
4. Singapore
3
Change r/ 2021
(positions)
1
=
1
1
3
Spain Evolution in the ranking (positions)
54 criteria grouped into 3 factors
Technology
Knowledge Readiness
27 33 27
Aug. 22
$258,900 M
y-o-y
+20%
Exports
$326,300 M
y-o-y
Imports
+13.6%
Aug-19
-48,233
Aug-20
-61,115
-71,426
Mar-22
-106.917
-110000
-100000
-90000
-80000
-70000
-60000
-50000
-40000
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Million $
Deficit in goods and services
Deficit
$ -67,400 M
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
Aug-19
Nov-19
Feb-20
May-20
Aug-20
Nov-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22
Aug-22
Imports
Exports
% y-o-y change
Trade slowdown
48.4
48.8
45
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
61
63
65
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Manufacturing
Services