North America Impacts of NAFTA and TPP Trade Agreements for Air, Sea and Land
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Douglas Brittin presents to North America outlook Conference at CILT international Convention 2016
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North America Impacts of NAFTA and TPP Trade Agreements for Air, Sea and Land
- 1. 2016 CILT International Convention North America Impacts of NAFTA and TPP Trade Agreements for Air, Sea and Land—Challenges and Future from a Transportation and Logistics Perspective May 11, 2016 Montréal, Quebec, Canada Douglas Brittin Secretary General, The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA)
- 2. Table of Contents • Global and regional air cargo markets • NAFTA • TPP • Summary • About TIACA
- 3. Global and Regional Air Cargo Markets
- 4. World air cargo markets 208 billion RTK Asia–North America, Europe-Asia, and Europe–North America are the leading east-west air cargo markets 2013 Long-haul air cargo markets 131 billion RTK Domestic and regional Europe-Asia Europe–North America Asia–North America Other long haul Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 5. International express market share reached 17.0% in 2013 RTKs in billions International express International freight and mail 1998 2008 Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 6. Factors and constraints for air cargo growth Trade quotas and restrictions Currency revaluations “Open skies” and new air services agreements Industry relocation Directional imbalances Surface competition Airport curfews New commodities Widebody freighters and lower holds Airline market research Airline market and shipper education Shipper utilization Proliferation of points served Just-in-time concepts Express market Deregulation Oil and fuel prices and availability National development programs New trade relationships Export promotion Terrorism and armed conflict Lack of airport access Environmental regulations World and regional GDP growth Air and surface labor stoppages Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 7. • Growth of e-commerce (especially via Post) • De minimus increase - Easier consumer imports - Dramatic effect on express and mail streams Other issues affecting transpacific air cargo
- 8. World airmail will grow 1.0% per year through 2033 RTKs in billions 1.2% growth per year History Forecast Average annual growth, 2013–2033 High, 1.2% Base, 1.0% Low, 0.9% 2003 2013 2033 Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 9. NAFTA
- 10. Impact on Intra-North America Air Cargo US-Canada • Negligible as “trade” • Facilitated easier cross-border “truck/air” moves Canada-Mexico • Limited growth US-Mexico • Strong, early growth • Maquiladora, especially for automotive/hi-tech JIT • Stabilized as transborder truck/rail capability increased
- 11. Transborder tonnage northbound continues to exceed that southbound US to Canada Canada to US Tonnes in thousands 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 12. 2013 data Latin America–North America trade can be classified into sub regions South America 1,036,000 tonnes Central America 265,000 tonnes Caribbean 75,000 tonnes Chile Colombia Brazil Peru Ecuador Argentina Venezuela Less than 1% each: Bolivia, Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas), French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Uruguay, Suriname Mexico Costa Rica Guatemala Panama Honduras Nicaragua El Salvador Less than 1%: Belize Dominican Republic Trinidad and Tobago Jamaica Barbados Haiti Between 1% and 2% each Bahamas, Grenada, Curacao, St Kitts and Nevis, Sint Maarten, Bermuda Less than 1% each Aruba, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Antigua and Barbuda, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Guadeloupe, Turks and Caicos Islands, Martinique, Dominica, Anguilla, Cuba, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 13. TPP
- 14. Air cargo has maintained its market share in the key transpacific cargo market Air cargo market share by percentage Maritime tonnes Air cargo tonnes 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015 Tonnes in millions Top 20 air cargo commodities for the Asia–North America market
- 15. Forecast average regional GDP growth rates Growth average annual percentage change for 2013–2033 Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 16. Asia markets will continue to lead industry growth RTKs in billions Annual growth by percentage 5.4% 5.3% 6.5% 3.1% 2.1% 6.7% 4.8% 4.0% 5.2% 4.3% 4.7% 2.0% 2013 RTKs 2013 RTKs Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 17. China accounts for 46% of the transpacific air cargo market 3,690,000 tonnesChina Japan South Korea Taiwan Singapore Hong Kong Australia Thailand Malaysia Less than 2% each: Cambodia, Indonesia, Macao, New Zealand, Philippines, Vietnam Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 18. Asia to North America 2,175,000 tonnes North America to Asia 1,516,000 tonnes Consumer goods drive eastbound transpacific flow; manufacturing materials drive westbound flow Apparel Chemical materials Documents and small packages Electrical machinery and apparatus General industrial machinery and equipment Scientific and specialized equipment Telecommunication equipment Other Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 19. China accounts for 33.8% of US-Asia air cargo trade in 2005 • Source: US Department of Commerce Tonnes Tonnes Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 20. China accounts for 47.1% of US-Asia air cargo trade in 2015 • Source: US Department of Commerce Tonnes Tonnes Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2015
- 21. Summary
- 22. Summary • TPP will have a positive impact on air cargo, for Importers, Exporters, and Consumers – simplifies trade and creates new opportunities for US companies • National Treatment and Market Access for Goods provisions – reduction or elimination of 18,000 duties (90% almost immediately) – makes US goods more competitive, duties eliminated on 86% of US manufactured goods
- 23. Summary • Customs Administration and Trade Facilitation – improves and simplifies clearance process in TPP counties (faster and more transparent) – customs clearance is a main obstacle for small businesses wanting to increase exports • expedited procedures for express shipments • electronic, pre-arrival clearances • release of express shipments within 6 hours • on-line publication of rules and regulations
- 24. About TIACA
- 25. TIACA Mission TIACA connects all members of the global air cargo supply chain, from the owners of the cargo (shippers or consignees) to integrators, forwarders, airlines, infrastructure providers and all other stakeholders, and promotes the key interests of the industry. We accomplish this with our three pillars: Advocacy, Networking and Knowledge www.tiaca.org
- 26. Freight forwarders 23.3% Airports 18.5% Airlines 16.7% Shippers 7% Honorary Members 5.6% GSAs 3.8% Associations 3.6% GHAs 3.1% Consultants 2.7% Charter Services 2.4% IT Providers 2.4% Educational Institutions 2.4% Manufacturers 2% ACMI Operators 1.3% Other 4.1% Membership Representing the entire Air Cargo Supply Chain.
- 27. Air Cargo Forum & Exhibition • Meet with over 3,000 air cargo industry professionals and 200 exhibitors. • Identify new business opportunities and network with market leading exhibitors from across the globe. • Benefit from bookable one-to-one meetings with leading suppliers at CargoLinX. • Learn from the experts at our workshops and panel discussions. October 26 – 28, 2016 Paris, France