1. smallholder agriculture and climate change P Läderach, A Eitzinger, A Benedikter Oxfam GB, London, January 2011

3. Methodology

5. A Framework to adapt

6. What’s next?

7. CCAFSOutline

8. Objectives Perceptions “Rain has become very irregularly, this year we suffered drought followed by heavy rains during Broccoli season” Two small-farmers & brothers, Guatemala, Patzún, October, 2010

10. Derive indicators to describe climate change impacts on livelihood(participatory & gender sensitive diagnostic)

11. Develop potential response pathways for supply chain actors (using interviews with industry partners) & estimate the carbon food print for identifying response pathways (develop a online carbon footprint platform)

13. Bogotá metropolitan area small-scale farmers related food security

15. Methodology Overall Approach Output Process Inputs Statistical Downscaling of Climate Information Future Climates at Local scale Global Climate Model (GCM) Outputs Crop Suitability and Niche Modeling Yield and Quality Impacts Production and Quality Data EXPOSURE Vulnerability Analyses Socio Economic Information ADAPTIVE CAPACITY Alternative Livelihood Strategies SENSITIVITY

17. Altitude range

18. Current Production Areas

19. Soil typesCalibrated Temperature and Precipitación Ranges! WorldClim Climate Data http://worldclim.org More than 47,000 stations worldwide Temperature

21. Transport of products

22. Quality of accommodation

23. Access to formal and informal education

24. Level of knowledge of farming system management.

25. Health and feeding

26. Organization

28. Variability of production

29. Price variability

30. Variability in annual revenue and income diversification

31. Access to markets

32. Access to alternative technology

33. Access and availability of water

34. Contamination

35. Conservation

36. Soil conditions and fertilitySee presentation A130 by Celi et al.

37. Preliminary results Guatemala’s Frozen Vegetable Value-chain Actually cultivated vegetables areas

38. Climate change predictions for 2050 Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) ExtractedClimateData for Vegetables in Chimaltenango, Sololá By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.2 °C The maximum annual temperature will rise 2.8°C The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.8°C By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 25 millimeters. “It will be hotter year-round and the rains will start later and be heavier in late winter.”

39. Exposure by changing crop suitability

40. Exposure … and limited land alternatives

41. Exposure by changing crop suitability

42. Exposure … and limited land alternatives

43. Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Different Livelihood profiles ADAM SUMAR

45. Financing through credit (Inputs or capital for producers, infrastructure)

47. Crop rotation

48. IrrigationSUMAR, ADAM Chainactors Look forfundsfromorganizations(like IFAD, Oxfam, … )forirrigationsystems, inputs, trainings, infrastructure

49. Preliminary results Bogota’s food security

50. Climate change predictions for 2050 Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) Extracted Climate Data for Bogotá By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 2.4 °C The maximum annual temperature will rise 3°C The minimum annual temperature will increase 2.3°C By 2050 annual precipitation will increase by 65 millimeters. “It will be hotter year-round and there will be more precipitation all over the year.”

51. Exposure by changing crop suitability of Potato Potato

52. Exposure by changing crop suitability of cassava Cassava

53. Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity Different Livelihood profiles Selling to consumers (MC) Selling to both Selling to intermediary

54. Strategies Characterized from supply chain actors 3 most important strategies, mentioned by different groups: Information, training and awareness(about the problem and causes) Political incidence (local a global) Sustainable/ecological production

55. Preliminary results Jamaica’s hotel industry supplier

56. Climate change predictions for 2050 Analysis of 19 GCM Models from the Fourth IPCC Evaluation Report (2007) Extracted Climate Data for Jamaica By 2050 the annual temperature will rise on average 1.7 °C The maximum annual temperature will rise 2°C The minimum annual temperature will increase 1.5°C By 2050 annual precipitation will decrease by 65 millimeters. “It will be hotter year-round and there will be less precipitation all over the year.”

57. Exposure by changing crop suitability

58. Exposure … and limited land alternatives Bamboo

59. Exposure by changing crop suitability

60. Exposure … and limited land alternatives Bamboo

61. Vulnerability Sensitivity & Adaptive Capacity

62. Strategies Characterized from supply chain actors 3 most important mentioned by different groups: Education, training, capacity building, information sharing, research Legislation & government policies, marketing, financing Infrastructure development, organization, sustainable implementation

64. Geographic crop modelling

65. Participative workshops

66. Expert interviews with key supply chain actors

67. Fieldwork observationsExposure Adaptive Capacity Sensitivity

69. Reasons for adaptation: Check importance of FSC.

73. crop diversification ,

77. Relate to adaptive capacity  hot spots

78. Go back to partial analysis and find specific reasons for vulnerability at the hot spots

79. Respond to differences between farm and FSC level

81. Revelation of action cycles and behavioral patterns enabling or obstructing adaptation.

82. Find the go-to points and derive incentives for change.Type 1: Push means of mediation and focus on endurance. Type 2: Find incentives to change behaviour, drop out of action cycles. Impediments to change: Uncertainty Cognitive problems and differing perceptions Lack of motive or incentives Lack of capacity Example: Suggestions:Strengthen sense of farming as important job via workshops with key farmers and local governments. Public promotion of farming as essential socio-economic profession required…

85. Increase internalisation of adaptation.FEASIBLE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

86. Colaboration Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS

87. What’s next? Grounding climate change By 2030, site will have current conditions of site Site learn from site for 2030 Site learn from site for 2030 Site learn …

88. smallholder agriculture and climate change THANK YOU! p.laderach@cgiar.org

89. Characterized from supply chain actors Carbon Footprint online platform

90. Characterized from supply chain actors Carbon Footprint online platform

91. Characterized from supply chain actors Carbon Footprint online platform