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CONSULTING TOOLKIT

     Consulting Skills:

     Profit Trees




© 2007-2012 IESIES Development Ltd. All Ltd. Reserved
       © 2007-2012 Development Rights All Rights Reserved
Profit/ROCE Trees are used to diagnose opportunities through
  comparisons of profit drivers across time or other businesses

WHAT?      Breaking down the key drivers of profitability to a
           detailed level


WHY?       •The ROCE Tree shows the key drivers of profitability
            on one map
           •They become powerful diagnostic tools when
            compared
              –across time
              –across businesses


HOW?       1) Start with ROCE or profit on the left
           2) Break down ratios mathematically step-by-step
           3) Choose breakdown to highlight key dynamics

                  © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
ROCE Trees break down a business’s return to its profit
     drivers
                                                                                                       Market share %
                           Operating                                                                       15
                                                                                                           10

                           Income $m                              Revenue $m                                5
                                                                                                            0
                                                                   1,500                                        '96   '97   '98   '99   '00
                                                                   1,000
                           60                                        500
                                                                                                       x


ROCE %
                           40
                           20
                                                                       0
                                                                              '96 '97 '98 '99 '00      Industry sales $m
ROCE, %                     0
                                '96   '97   '98   '99   '00
                                                                    x                                  15,000
20                                                                                                     10,000
10                                                                Op margin %                           5,000
                                                                                                            0
0                                                                  16                                           '96 '97 '98 '99 '00
     '96 '97 '98 '99 '00
                                                                   14
                                                                   12
                                                                        '96    '97   '98   '99   '00

                                                                    x

                                                                   (1 - tax rate) %
                                                                   34
                                                                   33
                                                                   32
                                                                   31
                                                                        '96    '97   '98   '99   '00


                           Capital Employed $m
                           600
                           400
                           200
                             0
                                 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00
                                      © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
There are three tips to gain insight from ROCE Trees

•Combine key financial and operational metrics. Like Issue
 trees, try different cuts to get new insights




•Compare across different businesses to see how different business
 models work to deliver returns




•Compare across time to see what drivers caused financial results




                     © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
The best way to learn is to do one yourself……..




CLASS EXERCISE
Create a Profit Tree for a
consulting business




                   © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
ROCE Trees break down a business’s profit drivers
                                                                                                                                       Basket Size
                                                                                                     Gross Margin
                                                                                                                                      $/Transaction
                                                                                        Margin            %
                                                                                       Intensity
                                                                                                                        Store Sales
                                                                                                                                         28.6
                                                                                     $/Sqft/Week         24
                                                                                                                         $/Store/
                                                                                                                          Week
 PROFIT TREE FOR A RETAIL BUSINESS                                                      20.5
                                                                     Store                               Sales          19,050         Transactions
                                                                 Contribution                          Intensity                      No./Week/Store
                                                                                    Rent Intensity
                                                                  $k/Sq Ft/Yr                        $/Sqft/Week
                                                                                    $/Sqft/Week
                                                                      797                                                                 666
                                                                                                        49.2            Store Size
                                                                                                                          Sq ft
                                            No. stores
                                               No.                                      4.5                               388
                                                                  Store Size
                                                                    Sq ft
                                  Store        138
                                Operating                                            Depreciation
                                Profit $m                             388            $/Sqft/Week
                                 27.5
              EBIT
               $m                            Store SOP             Staff cost            0.7
                                            $k/Store/Yr           $k/Store/Yr
              16.8
                                                                      83.3
                                              199
                                                                                                         Stock Cover
                                                                  Other store
                                                                                                           Weeks
                                                                     cost
                                             Central
                                                                  $k/Store/Yr                               13.0
                                            Overheads
Pre-tax                                                                                Stock
 ROCE
                                               $m                     26.1              $m
   %                                          10.7
                                                            Working                                       Purchases
 46                                                         Capital
                                                                                      19.9
                                                                                                             $m
                                                              $m
                                                                                                            79.7
                                                             11.6
                      Capital                                                        Supplier
                     Employed                                                         Credit
                        $m                                                             $m
                                                           Fixed Asset                                   Credit terms
                      36.6                                     $m                      8.3                  Weeks
                                            © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
                                                             25.0                                             5.4
KPIs for a consulting company are typically Utilisation%, Mark-
          up Rate and Proposal Success Rate%
                                                                                                                       Mark-up Rate
                                                                                                                       (Billing/cost)
                                                                                                                             [%]
PROFIT TREE FOR A PEOPLE PROJECT-BASED COMPANY
(e.g. Consulting)
                                                                                                       Billing Rate
                                                                                                      [$k/manday]         x
                                   Number of
                                    Projects
                                                                                       Profit per
                                                                                        Manday
                                                                                                         _               Average
                                                                                                                        Consultant
                                                                                                                           Cost
                                   [No./year]                                        [$k/manday]
                                                                                                        Effective      [$k/manday]
                                                          Profit (without                              Consultant

                   Net Profit
                                                             sales cost)
                                                            per Project                x                  Cost
                                                                                                      [$k/manday]
                     from
                    Projects
                   [$m/year]
                                    x                           [$k]
                                                                                       Average
                                                                                       Project
                                                                                                                        Consultant
                                                                                                                        Utilisation
                                                                                                                           Rate
                                                                                                                            [%]
                                                                                         Size


  Consulting
                    _
                                    Net Profit
                                 (inc sales cost)
                                    per Project
                                                             _                        [Mandays]

                                                                                                        Sales Cost
  Company
 Annual Profit                         [$k]                                                           Per New Client
  [$m/year]                                                                                              Proposal
                                                                                     Sales Cost per        [$k]
                                                                                    New Client Won
                                                                                          [$k]


                                                                                       x
                                                             Sales Cost
                   Company                                                                             New Client
                                                             Per Project
                 Overhead Cost                                                                          Proposal
                                                                [$k]
                   [$m/year]                                                                          Success Rate
                                                                                     Repeat/Upsell        [%]

                                                                      (1-             Project Rate
                                                                                          [%]




                                       © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
You can use a profit driver tree to understand a company’s
        economics
AIRLINE PROFIT DRIVERS                                                     Number of
                                                                           Passengers
                                                                           [No./year]

                                  Number of
                                Passenger Miles
                                                            x
                                 [Miles/year]                                Average
                                                                           Trip Length
                 Net Profit                                                   [Miles]
                 from flying
                 [$m/year]        x                     Revenue per
                                                                                           Retail Price per
                                                       Passenger Mile
                                                           [$/PM]
                                                                               x        Passenger Mile [$/PM]
                                                                                                 Sales
                                                                                                                   Ground Ops Cost
                                                                                                                      per APM
                    _                                                             (1-         Commission [%]          [$/APM]
Annual Profit
 [$m/year]
                                  Profit per
                                Passenger Mile            _                                     Cost per              Flying Cost
                                    [$/PM]                                                     Available
                                                                                             Passenger Mile    +       per APM
                                                                                                                       [$/APM]
                                                          Cost per                              [$/APM]
                Overhead Cost                            Passenger                                                 Maintenance Cost
                  [$m/year]                              Mile ($/PM)                                                   per APM
                                                                                               Load Factor             [$/APM]
                                                                                                  [%]



                                      © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
Netflix profitability is driven by 6 Key Performance Measures

SUBSCRIPTION BUSINESS PROFIT DRIVERS                                        Average
(e.g. Netflix)                                                            Subscription
                                                                           [$/month]
                                     Net Profit
                                   from Renting
                                                                              _               Average
                                                                                             shipments
                                                                                            [No./month]          Subscription
                                   [$/customer]                            Average                              cost/shipment
                  Net Profit
                from Renting            x                               Cost/Customer
                                                                          [$/month]
                                                                                               x                 [$/shipment]
                  [$m/year]         Number of                                               Average Cost
                                    Customers                                               per Shipment           +
                   _                [No./year]                                              [$/shipment]
                                                                                                                  Fulfilment
                                Net New Customers                                                               cost/shipment
                                                                                            Marketing Cost
                                    [No./year]                                                                   [$/shipment]
                 Marketing                                                                  per Free Trial
Annual Profit
 [$m/year]         Cost
                 [$m/year]
                                         x                              Acquisition Cost/
                                                                         New Customer
                                                                          [$/customer]
                                                                                               [$/trial]
                                Effective Acquisition Cost
                                 per Net New Customer
                   _                   [$/customer]                                          Trial Conversion
                                                                                                  Rate [%]
                                Technology Cost                                 Churn
                                   [$m/year]               (1-                   [%]
                Overhead Cost
                  [$m/year]           +
                                  Admin Cost
                                   [$m/year]
                                   © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd.   All Rights Reserved
Netflix profitability is driven by 6 Key Performance Measures
                                                                                               Sell-out share
 FMCG BUSINESS PROFIT DRIVERS                                                                        (%)
 (e.g. Diageo)
                                                            Market share
                                                                (%)                                x
                                                                                                Weighted
                                                                                               Distribution
                                  Sales
                                                                 x                                  (%)
                                ($m/year)
                                                          Market size
                                                          ($m/year)
                                                                                       Average Price
                                                                                          ($/unit)
                   Profit
                Contribution
                                   x                   Gross margin                   Mix Effect
                 [$m/year]                                  (%)                          (%)


Annual Profit
 [$m/year]        _
                               Net margin
                                   (%)                       _                         Average Cost
                                                                                         ($/unit)

                                                                                          Advertising
                                                           A&P                        (brand building) (%)
                 Overhead
                 Allocation
                                                       Investment
                                                            (%)
                                                                            +              Promotion
                 [$m/year]                                                            (volume related) (%)

                               © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved

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Consulting toolkit profit trees

  • 1. CONSULTING TOOLKIT Consulting Skills: Profit Trees © 2007-2012 IESIES Development Ltd. All Ltd. Reserved © 2007-2012 Development Rights All Rights Reserved
  • 2. Profit/ROCE Trees are used to diagnose opportunities through comparisons of profit drivers across time or other businesses WHAT? Breaking down the key drivers of profitability to a detailed level WHY? •The ROCE Tree shows the key drivers of profitability on one map •They become powerful diagnostic tools when compared –across time –across businesses HOW? 1) Start with ROCE or profit on the left 2) Break down ratios mathematically step-by-step 3) Choose breakdown to highlight key dynamics © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
  • 3. ROCE Trees break down a business’s return to its profit drivers Market share % Operating 15 10 Income $m Revenue $m 5 0 1,500 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 1,000 60 500 x ROCE % 40 20 0 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 Industry sales $m ROCE, % 0 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 x 15,000 20 10,000 10 Op margin % 5,000 0 0 16 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 14 12 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 x (1 - tax rate) % 34 33 32 31 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 Capital Employed $m 600 400 200 0 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
  • 4. There are three tips to gain insight from ROCE Trees •Combine key financial and operational metrics. Like Issue trees, try different cuts to get new insights •Compare across different businesses to see how different business models work to deliver returns •Compare across time to see what drivers caused financial results © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
  • 5. The best way to learn is to do one yourself…….. CLASS EXERCISE Create a Profit Tree for a consulting business © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
  • 6. ROCE Trees break down a business’s profit drivers Basket Size Gross Margin $/Transaction Margin % Intensity Store Sales 28.6 $/Sqft/Week 24 $/Store/ Week PROFIT TREE FOR A RETAIL BUSINESS 20.5 Store Sales 19,050 Transactions Contribution Intensity No./Week/Store Rent Intensity $k/Sq Ft/Yr $/Sqft/Week $/Sqft/Week 797 666 49.2 Store Size Sq ft No. stores No. 4.5 388 Store Size Sq ft Store 138 Operating Depreciation Profit $m 388 $/Sqft/Week 27.5 EBIT $m Store SOP Staff cost 0.7 $k/Store/Yr $k/Store/Yr 16.8 83.3 199 Stock Cover Other store Weeks cost Central $k/Store/Yr 13.0 Overheads Pre-tax Stock ROCE $m 26.1 $m % 10.7 Working Purchases 46 Capital 19.9 $m $m 79.7 11.6 Capital Supplier Employed Credit $m $m Fixed Asset Credit terms 36.6 $m 8.3 Weeks © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved 25.0 5.4
  • 7. KPIs for a consulting company are typically Utilisation%, Mark- up Rate and Proposal Success Rate% Mark-up Rate (Billing/cost) [%] PROFIT TREE FOR A PEOPLE PROJECT-BASED COMPANY (e.g. Consulting) Billing Rate [$k/manday] x Number of Projects Profit per Manday _ Average Consultant Cost [No./year] [$k/manday] Effective [$k/manday] Profit (without Consultant Net Profit sales cost) per Project x Cost [$k/manday] from Projects [$m/year] x [$k] Average Project Consultant Utilisation Rate [%] Size Consulting _ Net Profit (inc sales cost) per Project _ [Mandays] Sales Cost Company Annual Profit [$k] Per New Client [$m/year] Proposal Sales Cost per [$k] New Client Won [$k] x Sales Cost Company New Client Per Project Overhead Cost Proposal [$k] [$m/year] Success Rate Repeat/Upsell [%] (1- Project Rate [%] © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
  • 8. You can use a profit driver tree to understand a company’s economics AIRLINE PROFIT DRIVERS Number of Passengers [No./year] Number of Passenger Miles x [Miles/year] Average Trip Length Net Profit [Miles] from flying [$m/year] x Revenue per Retail Price per Passenger Mile [$/PM] x Passenger Mile [$/PM] Sales Ground Ops Cost per APM _ (1- Commission [%] [$/APM] Annual Profit [$m/year] Profit per Passenger Mile _ Cost per Flying Cost [$/PM] Available Passenger Mile + per APM [$/APM] Cost per [$/APM] Overhead Cost Passenger Maintenance Cost [$m/year] Mile ($/PM) per APM Load Factor [$/APM] [%] © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
  • 9. Netflix profitability is driven by 6 Key Performance Measures SUBSCRIPTION BUSINESS PROFIT DRIVERS Average (e.g. Netflix) Subscription [$/month] Net Profit from Renting _ Average shipments [No./month] Subscription [$/customer] Average cost/shipment Net Profit from Renting x Cost/Customer [$/month] x [$/shipment] [$m/year] Number of Average Cost Customers per Shipment + _ [No./year] [$/shipment] Fulfilment Net New Customers cost/shipment Marketing Cost [No./year] [$/shipment] Marketing per Free Trial Annual Profit [$m/year] Cost [$m/year] x Acquisition Cost/ New Customer [$/customer] [$/trial] Effective Acquisition Cost per Net New Customer _ [$/customer] Trial Conversion Rate [%] Technology Cost Churn [$m/year] (1- [%] Overhead Cost [$m/year] + Admin Cost [$m/year] © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved
  • 10. Netflix profitability is driven by 6 Key Performance Measures Sell-out share FMCG BUSINESS PROFIT DRIVERS (%) (e.g. Diageo) Market share (%) x Weighted Distribution Sales x (%) ($m/year) Market size ($m/year) Average Price ($/unit) Profit Contribution x Gross margin Mix Effect [$m/year] (%) (%) Annual Profit [$m/year] _ Net margin (%) _ Average Cost ($/unit) Advertising A&P (brand building) (%) Overhead Allocation Investment (%) + Promotion [$m/year] (volume related) (%) © 2007-2012 IES Development Ltd. All Rights Reserved