Techniques of hr demand forecasting

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There are a variety of forecasting techniques that a company may use. Identify and discuss the four main qualitative approaches, including their advantages and disadvantages. Solution Qualitative forecasting techniques generally employ the judgment of experts in the appropriate field to generate forecasts. A key advantage of these procedures is that they can be applied in situations where historical data are simply not available. Moreover, even when historical data are available, significant changes in environmental conditions affecting the relevant time series may make the use of past data irrelevant and questionable in forecasting future values of the time series. DELPHI TECHNIQUE. In the Delphi technique, an attempt is made to develop forecasts through \"group consensus.\" Usually, a panel of experts is asked to respond to a series of questionnaires. The experts, physically separated from and unknown to each other, are asked to respond to an initial questionnaire (a set of questions). Then, a second questionnaire is prepared incorporating information and opinions of the whole group. Each expert is asked to reconsider and to revise his or her initial response to the questions. This process is continued until some degree of consensus among experts is reached. It should be noted that the objective of the Delphi technique is not to produce a single answer at the end. Instead, it attempts to produce a relatively narrow spread of opinions .

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Literature review shows that more accurate software effort and cost estimation methods are needed for software project management success. Expert judgment and algorithmic model estimation are two predominant methods discussed in the literature. Both are reported almost at the comparable level of accuracy performance. The combination of the two methods is suggested to increase the estimation accuracy. Delphi method is an encouraging structured expert judgment method for software effort group estimation but surprisingly little was reported in the literature. The objective of this study is to test if the Delphi estimates will be more accurate if the participants in the Delphi process are exposed to the algorithmic estimates. A Delphi experiment where the participants in the Delphi process were exposed to three algorithmic estimates –Function Points, COCOMO estimates, and Use Case Points, was therefore conducted. The findings show that the Delphi estimates are slightly more accurate than the statistical combination of individual expert estimates, but they are not statistically significant. However, the Delphi estimates are statistically significant more accurate than the individual estimates. The results also show that the Delphi estimates are slightly less optimistic than the statistical combination of individual expert estimates but they are not statistically significant either. The adapted Delphi experiment shows a promising technique for improving the software cost estimation accuracy.

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