Keynote presentation by Philip Thornton, CCAFS Flagship Leader on Priorities and Policies for CSA, at the 3rd Conference on Agriculture and Climate Change in Budapest on 25 March 2019.

1. Philip Thornton
3rd Conference on Agriculture and Climate Change, Budapest, 25 March 2019
Transforming agri-food systems
in lower- and middle-income
countries to meet the SDGs
Photo: G. Smith (CIAT)

2. • The challenge of future food & nutrition security
• Are we on track to meet the challenge?
• Transforming food systems
• Contributing to the SDGs
Outline

3. http://www.csiro.au/Portals/Multimedia/On-the-record/Sustainable-Agriculture-Feeding-the-World.aspx

4. Steffen et al. Science (2015); updated from Rockstrom et al. (2009)
Current status of key planetary boundaries … but
what of the future?

5. 0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Fooddemand(kcal/yearx1015)
Balancing food supply and demand
Reducing
the
Demand
Filling the
Production
Gap
Sustaining
productive
capacity
Keating et al. (2014)

6. FAO, 2018, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World

7. FAO, 2018

8. Smith & Myers, Nature Climate Change, 2018
Risk of inadequate nutrient intake from elevated atmospheric CO2
concentrations of 550 ppm
• CO2 fertilisation in C3 crops: more carbohydrates produced at the expense of other nutrients
• 175 million more people zinc deficient (122 million protein deficient) by 2050 owing to rising CO2
• Similar for forages: 60% of grasses globally are C3 and susceptible to CO2 effects on nutritional quality

9. Rural labour capacity loss due to extreme heat exposure: change in
2006-2016 relative to the 1986–2008 average
Watts et al., The Lancet (2018)

10. Rural labour capacity loss due to extreme heat exposure: change in
2006-2016 relative to the 1986–2008 average
Watts et al., The Lancet (2018)
• Increased morbidity, mortality associated
with heat stress
• Increased incidences of chronic kidney
disease in agricultural populations (Central
America, southern Africa): due to heat stress
/ dehydration, also toxic exposure to
agrochemicals?
• Many impacts not well understood
• Early warning systems, shade and potable
water provision, education and health care
facilities

11. Boone et al., GCB (2018)
Spatial distribution of
percentage change by 2050s
and RCP8.5 in relation to
1971-1980
Mean changes for 2 emissions
pathways: intermediate (RCP4.5, blue)
and high-end (RCP8.5, orange)
Projected changes in Aboveground Net Primary Productivity
(ANPP) in Africa’s rangelands

12. Mean annual total standing dry matter (A) and animal stocking rates (B) under
different imposed drought intensities and durations
Godde et al., submitted

13. Godde et al., submitted
Variance explained by the mean, seasonal variability (CVP-inter) and annual
variability (CVP-intra) of imposed drought intensities and durations
Impacts of increasing seasonality and intra-annual
variability of rainfall on animal stocking rates:
• Considerably greater than shifts in means
• Understudied, under-appreciated

14. • The challenge of future food & nutrition security
• Are we on track to meet the challenge?
• Transforming food systems
• Contributing to the SDGs
Outline

15. 2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089
20
40
60
80
100
PERCENTAGEOF
YIELDPROJECTIONS
0
2090-2109
0 – -5%
-5 – -10%
-10 – -25%
-25 – -50%
-50 – -100%
50 – 100%
25 – 50%
10 – 25%
5 – 10%
0 – 5%
Range of Yield Change
Increase
in Yield
Decrease
in Yield
Projected impact of climate change on crop
yields over the 21st century
Different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for
adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined
Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels
Porter et al. (2014), AR5, IPCC

16. 2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089
20
40
60
80
100
PERCENTAGEOF
YIELDPROJECTIONS
0
2090-2109
0 – -5%
-5 – -10%
-10 – -25%
-25 – -50%
-50 – -100%
50 – 100%
25 – 50%
10 – 25%
5 – 10%
0 – 5%
Range of Yield Change
Increase
in Yield
Decrease
in Yield
Projected impact of climate change on crop
yields over the 21st century
Different emission scenarios, for tropical and temperate regions, and for
adaptation and no-adaptation cases combined
Changes in crop yields are relative to late-20th-century levels
Porter et al. (2014), AR5, IPCC
• Climate change causes crop yield losses; losses
to increase with time
• Tropics are more vulnerable than temperate
regions
• Poor are more vulnerable
• Climate change is impacting crop yields
already; we have already lost 1-10% crop yields
• Climate variability has large impacts on crop
yields

17. Is enough adaptation happening?
A new global meta-analysis of crop-climate change impact
studies published in last 40 years
27,930 data points
• Time slice: 9115 for 2020s; 9662 for 2050s and 9153 for 2080s
• Spatial scale: 25667 for global; 1551 for regional and national; 712 for
site
• Publication year: 4781 pre-2000; 23149 post-2000
• Adaptation: 1808 without adaptation; 26122 with adaptation (optimal
planting, variety, irrigation and nutrient management,…)
• CO2 effects: 26992 with CO2; 11598 without CO2
Aggarwal et al. (2019)

18. Climate change impacts on cereals: national level, 2020s,
and the role of technology (adaptation)
with adaptation (blue bands)
without adaptation (orange bands)
Aggarwal et al. (2019)
Latitude
Percentagechange

19. Climate change impacts on cereals at different time
slices and the role of technology (adaptation)
with
adaptation
(blue bands)
without
adaptation
(orange
bands)
Aggarwal et al. (2019)

20. LAC-Latin America & Caribbean
SSA-Sub-Saharan Africa
MENA-Middle East & North Africa
Aggarwal et al. (2019)
High
income Upper-
middle
income
Lower-
middle
income
Low
income
Impacts of climate change with adaptation for different
geopolitical, economic and climate groups
Average of all crops and time slices
NA-North America
EAP-East Asia & Pacific
ECA-Europe & Central Asia
SA-South Asia

21. Hotspots of climate change based on assessments of its net impacts on
crop yield at country scale for the 2050s and the food production gap
Food production gap: difference between 2050 food demand and current food supply. Countries with high food gap and
high impacts of climate change are most vulnerable. Countries with cropped area <10,000 hectares not shown
Aggarwal et al. (2019)

22. What can be concluded from this meta-analysis?
• At country level, some of the impact of climate change on wheat, rice
and maize yields to the 2050s can be handled with adaptation
• Even with adaptation, there are still country “hotspots” where the
food gap is large (difference between 2050 food demand and current
food supply) AND impacts of climate change are projected to be large
• These country hotspots are cause for serious concern (e.g. India,
wheat and maize; several countries in SSA, maize): massive
investment, policy and institutional support needed to facilitate
adoption
• At the country level, some adaptation has been occurring, but …

23. Aggarwal et al. (submitted)
Estimated global crop yield growth rates per year
FAOSTAT data (current) and a meta-analysis of integrated assessment projections

24. At the household level?
Global network of CCAFS sites
5 regions, 21 countries, 45 sites, 315 villages, 6300 households

25. Proportion of four household types from baseline data: 45 sites in 5 regions, 21
countries, 315 villages, 6300 households
Region No. sites Proportion of households of each type
Food insecure Hanging in Stepping up Stepping out
East Africa 8 32.0 42.5 13.6 12.1
Latin America 7 5.7 60.0 20.8 14.1
South Asia 22 9.2 57.7 16.5 16.7
South-East Asia 3 10.2 63.4 11.9 14.5
West Africa 5 13.8 69.6 11.0 5.6
All 45 13.3 57.1 15.7 14.1
• Food insecure: food insecure hhs (> 5 food deficit months per year)
• Stepping up: practice changes in the last 10 years involving some intensification
• Stepping out: no practice changes, increased off-farm income
• Hanging in: none of the above
Thornton et al. (2018)

26. • Globally, annual growth rates in crop yields are less than they
need to be
• Several countries are facing large food gaps AND large climate
change impacts on the major cereals
• At local level, in some regions there are too many food-
insecure households, and too few households are intensifying
their production
Are we on track to meet the food production challenge?

27. • The challenge of future food & nutrition security
• Are we on track to meet the challenge?
• Transforming food systems
• Contributing to the SDGs
Outline

28. “The ultimate goal: to remake Africa in a decade”
“Transforming global agriculture and food systems”
“Data could inspire agricultural transformation in Africa”
“Research and dialogue for a climate-smart and just transformation”
“Seeks to promote a paradigm shift to low-emission and climate-resilient
development”
“We can identify and scale solutions to transform sectors”
“Fostering inclusive rural transformation”
“Our overarching goals are …… agricultural transformation………”
Incremental adjustments in agri-food systems may not be enough: is
more drastic action required?

29. Different food system activities and actors
Zurek (2019)

30. DRIVER
Interactions
Socioeconomic
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Demographics, Economics,
Socio-political context,
Cultural context
Science & Technology
Environmental
DRIVERS
Changes in:
Land cover & soils, Atmospheric
Comp., Climate variability & means,
Water availability & quality,
Nutrient availability & cycling,
Biodiversity, Sea level
‘Natural’
DRIVERS
e.g. Volcanoes
Solar cycles
Environmental feedbacks
e.g. water quality, GHGs, biodiversity
Socioeconomic feedbacks
e.g. nutrition, business, political stability
Food
Utilisation
Food
Access
Food
Availability
Food Security
Social,Political,Business,andBiophysicalEnvironments
Finding appropriate intervention points in a complex adaptive
system
Zurek (2019)

31. Six key elements for transforming food systems under a
changing climate
Loboguerrero et al. (2019)

32. Reshaping supply chains, food retail, marketing and procurement
Consumer behaviour and the retail sector are driving the food system
today more than farmers
Many options
• New models of business to-business coordination
• New diets and consumer choices (e.g. urbanisation, supermarkets)
• Managing food loss and waste
Challenges
• Effects of interventions not easy to envisage
• Interactive socioeconomic and environmental outcomes
• Wide range of power and vested interests, and fragmented governance
• Avoiding marginalisation of the poorest

33. • Cattle and goat
numbers fell by 70%
across northern Kenya
during the drought of
2005/06
Reshaping supply chains:
shifting to camels in arid
northern Kenya
• Widespread adaptation response: switch from cattle to
camels (need less water, eat arid shrubs, generate more
milk): camel population has >tripled in 15 years
• Initially big market constraints (animals, hides, no value
chain)
• Increased government support via restocking programmes,
extension services, veterinary care and infrastructure

34. Communications and
banking systems have
been transformed
Utilise innovations in
other sectors to reach
tens of millions of
smallholders
Mobile telephony in Africa →
2005 cell
phone penetration
in developing
countries was 23%
Digitalisation of agriculture
2017 there were 960
million mobile
subscriptions across
Africa, with
80% penetration

35. Digitalisation of agriculture

36. Technology options: making better use of the “back catalogue” from 50+ years
of research for development
Rosenstock et al. 2019
Compendium of Climate Smart
Agriculture practices: >12,500
data points comparing
conventional with CSA practices in
eastern and southern Africa

37. Technological change
can generate:
1. Very rapid sea
changes in social
and cultural
systems
2. Transformation in
agriculture and
food systems
Current agricultural
technology options
will not be able to
feed 9 billion people
and reach the
sustainable
development goals
simultaneously
Some
examples
Robotics
in
agriculture
Alternative
protein
sources
Robotics in
agriculture
Drones
Artificial
intelligence
Biofortified
crops
Genetic
modification
assisted
domestication of
new crops
Vertical
agriculture
Biologicals
replacing
artificial inputs
Molecular
printing
→
Near-ready and blue-sky technology
Impact
on
SDGs
IMPLEMENTATION
Technology as an ingredient of food-systems
innovation for accelerating progress towards the SDGs
(CSIRO & CCAFS, 2019)

38. Global costs of adaptation per annum could range from:
✓ US$140 billion to US$300 billion by 2030; and
✓ US$280 billion to US$500 billion by 2050
The financing gap for adaptation in agriculture in Africa is $20-30 billion
per year by 2030
Financing is available to meet adaptation / mitigation targets: some from
public institutions like the Green Climate Fund, but most from the
private sector
• De-risking private finance
• Insurance incentivizing technology uptake
Millan (2019), World Bank & UNEP (2016)
Innovative finance to leverage public & private investments

39. Climate change affects all
sectors of the economy
and agriculture in particular
key trends and
unforeseen
developmentsScenario-based
approach for forward-
looking assessments
can be critical for a
“default future” and to
adopt new strategies
Important to identify
Transition risks may affect their portfolios.
Resulting from the transition to low-carbon
and resilient global food systems
Innovative finance
• Developing business cases for private sector investments
• Developing innovate financing mechanisms – e.g. the Climate Smart Lending
Platform for making lending deals between local lenders and smallholder
farmers who adopt sustainable and climate resilient agricultural practices

40. Gender considerations of different CSA-sensitive practices
Adapted from World Bank, FAO and IFAD, 2015; modified by Nelson & Huyer 2016
Requirements for adoption of practice Relative
amount
of time
until
benefits
are
realized
Potential for
women to
benefit from
increased
productivity
Female and
youth
labour
availability
Female
access to
and control
of land
Female
access to
water for
agriculture
Female
access to
cash and
ability to
spend it
Gender
impact:
women’s
control of
income
from
practice
Conservation
agriculture
High Low-medium High Low Low High Low
Improved
home gardens
High High High High High Low High
Empowerment and social inclusion

41. Gender considerations of different CSA-sensitive practices
Adapted from World Bank, FAO and IFAD, 2015; modified by Nelson & Huyer 2016
Requirements for adoption of practice Relative
amount
of time
until
benefits
are
realized
Potential for
women to
benefit from
increased
productivity
Female and
youth
labour
availability
Female
access to
and control
of land
Female
access to
water for
agriculture
Female
access to
cash and
ability to
spend it
Gender
impact:
women’s
control of
income
from
practice
Conservation
agriculture
High Low-medium High Low Low High Low
Improved
home gardens
High High High High High Low High
Empowerment and social inclusion
Relative scores for 6 dimensions of the
enabling environment

42. Making agriculture an attractive livelihood option for
young people in rural areas
• Strategies used to engage with the
private sector can also help bring in
young people to agribusiness
• Innovative ways to overcome the
constraint of access to credit
• Massive opportunities in the food
system, such as:
▪ equipment manufacturing and
sales
▪ ag input supply
▪ processing and value addition
▪ nutrition education
▪ food vending

43. Global to local policies for transformational food
systems
Rawe et al. (2019)

44. Country-level leverage points: Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement
Updated from Richards et al. (2015)

45. • The challenge of future food & nutrition security
• Are we on track to meet the challenge?
• Transforming food systems
• Contributing to the SDGs
Outline

46. Relationships of climate change actions in the food system to the SDGs
(Campbell et al.,2018)

47. Impact of fertiliser nitrogen (N) use on the achievement of SDGs and for situations
where too little, too much or optimal levels of fertiliser N are consumed
(Campbell et al., COSUST, 2018)

48. Transforming developing-country agriculture: which development
pathways?
Alston & Pardey, J Economic Perspectives (2014)

49. Transforming developing-country agriculture: which development
pathways?
• Intensification and land
consolidation? Farming in
2030: more inequality in farm
incomes, sizes, technologies,
market linkages
• 30% of most food commodities
in SSA & Asia produced on
farms ≤2 ha; 75% on farms <20
ha
• 560 million farms today, maybe
700 million? by 2030 (most
increases in Africa, Asia). How
to enable the sustainable
intensification needed?
Herrero et al. (2017), Campbell & Thornton (2014)
Alston & Pardey, J Economic Perspectives (2014)

50. Transforming developing-country agriculture and food systems
• … to feed a billion more people in Africa and Asia in the face of
climate change, while reducing the carbon cost of farming (but not via
more land: not enough for which the economic and environmental
costs of conversion would be acceptable)
• … to achieve desired outcomes of the SDGs, like ending hunger,
achieving food security and improved nutrition, and promoting
sustainable agriculture, by 2030 (only 11 years away)

51. p.thornton@cgiar.org
www.ccafs.cgiar.org
Thank you