Improving the quantification of agricultural emissions in low-income countries. WATCH LIVE on WEDNESDAY 4 DECEMBER 14:30 CET: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/videostream
Improving the quantification of agriculture emissions in low-income countries by DR. Todd Rosenstock
1. Improving the quantification of agricultural
greenhouse gas emissions in low-income countries:
Standard Assessment of Mitigation Potential and Livelihoods in
Smallholder Systems (SAMPLES)
Todd Rosenstock, M Rufino, K Butterbach-Bahl, L Wollenberg, BO Sander, D Stern, D Pelster, H
Neufeldt, R Wassmann, L Verchot, P van Asten, C Arias-Navarro, G Saiz, E Diaz-Pines, M Richards,
I Ortiz-Monasterio, ML Jat, M Tapio-Bistrom, M Peters, A Castro, T Sapkota, and many others
CCAFS Live Stream| 4 December 2013
Photo courtesy of L Wollenberg
5. But what do we really know about the impact of smallholders on
greenhouse gas emissions and removals in developing countries?
Virtually no data
+ = field
= lab-based
Studies of N2O emissions from managed soils in SSA
Hickman et al. in prep
6. Estimates based on data and models from other location
can provide erroneous estimates of sources and sinks
15
Local equation:
Our Equation
Brown, 1997
AGB (Mg)
12
Chave et al. 2005
Henry et al. 2009
As much as a 13%
underestimation of
biomass
9
6
3
0
0
30
60
90
120
dbh (cm)
Kuyah et al. 2012 Ag, Eco & Env.; Kuyah and Rosenstock in review
7. Predicting emissions for smallholder cropping
systems with available tools
800
Predicted CO2e kg/ha
Predicted by Cool Farm Tool
(CO2e kg ha-1 season-1)
1000
600
Maize Zimbabwe
400
Maize China
Maize Tanzania
200
Tea Kenya
Vegetables Kenya or Tanzania
0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
Measured CO2e kg/ha
Measured (CO2e kg ha-1 season-1)
Richards et al. in prep
8. There is no data, so what…
• Calibrating to LED
• Emerging green economy
• Weakens position at global climate talk
Low-emissions
development
The green economy Global negotiations
9. White = livelihoods
Red = mitigation
The challenge
Cash crop
N2O
Feed
crop
Fuel
C sequestration
Pasture
Food/cash
CH4
C sequestration
Kaptumo, Kenya
11. Not all greenhouse gas numbers are
equally credible
Rochette and Eriksen-Hamil 2008
60% of 360 studies of N2O emissions were inadequately reported to have
confidence in results
12.
13. Development of new context specific methods
Research constraints
Spatial heterogeneity
Small-scale spatial heterogeneity
Analytical capacity
Arias-Navarro et al. 2013 SBB
14. Development of new context specific methods
Research constraints
Spatial heterogeneity
Small-scale spatial heterogeneity
Analytical capacity in the lab
Arias-Navarro et al. 2013 SBB
21. Deconstructing complex landscapes and farms
Complex landscape: f (m, n, o, p, q)
GIS
analysis, re
mote
sensing
Physical
environment
Food
security, pov
erty levels
Land
Livestock
Other assets
Sources of
incomes
Productivity,
GHG
emissions, cr
op
preferences
Characterise
fertility x
management
m Landscape units
n Farm types
p Farming
activities
o Common lands
q Land types
22. Landscape units and land users in Nyando, Kenya
Target locations for quantification
26. Social constraints to water differs among farmers
1) Canal irrigation (upstream, low area, Bulacan 1)
Should always have sufficient water
2) NIA-operated water pump (high-lying area, Bulacan 2)
Pumps water 24/7 to higher area, electr. fee
3) Community owned water pump (Tarlac)
Farmer buys diesel for usage of pump
4) Imposed AWD (canal end, Nueva Ecija)
Water is supplied every other week
Sander and Wassmann ongoing
27. Cumulative methane emissions in 2013 in
Philippine farmer fields
8
Bulacan 1 -66%
5.3
6
4
1.8
2
7.8
6
4
1.8
2
10
AWD
Tarlac
-70%
8
3.7
4
1.1
2
0
CF
10
t CO2-eq/ha*season
CF
t CO2-eq/ha*season
8
0
0
6
Bulacan 2 -77%
10
t CO2-eq/ha*season
t CO2-eq/ha*season
10
AWD
NE -65%
8.6
8
6
3.0
4
2
0
CF
AWD
CF
AWD
Sander and Wassmann ongoing
28. Alternate wetting and drying yields equal to
those of continuous flooding in 2013
grain yield (t/ha)
10
*
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
CF AWD
Bulacan 1
CF AWD
Bulacan 2
CF AWD
Tarlac
CF AWD
Nueva Ecija
Sander and Wassmann ongoing
29. The efforts result in quantitative mitigation options
Measures being investigated
at various SAMPLES sites
Income & food
security
Mitigation of GHGs
CO2
CH4
N 2O
+/-
+
+
Improved diets
+
Water management
+
+
+
Manure management
+
+
+/-
Conservation agriculture
Improved cookstoves
Aforestation
+
From ‘+’s to
+
quantities and
+/+/ranges +/+
+
+/+/-
Nutrient management
+
+
+/-
Agroforestry
+
+
+/-
30. Activities
Measurement
guidelines
Consistent and
comparable data
Mapping propoor mitigation
opportunities
Capacity
development
Priorities for
research and
development
Human and
institutional
infrastructure
Outcomes
Integrated
assessment of
farming systems
Socially
acceptable,
place-based
solutions
31. Activities
Linking knowledge with action
Field-level
development
activities
Increased use of
LED solutions
National process
NAMAs
Evidence-based
climate change
planning
Design of land
based programs
32. Select examples of the SAMPLES 2014 research network
Nutrient management of
maize (CIMMYT)
Farm-level intensification
and avoided deforestation
(ICRAF)
Nutrient and residue
management/ rice and
wheat (CIMMYT)
Water
management/
rice (IRRI)
Silvopastoral systems
(CIAT)
Wetlands and perennial crop
management (IITA, ILRI)
Agroforestry, nutrient
management, landscapes
(ILRI, ICRAF, CIFOR)
10 countries
15 sites
33. Thank you
Standard Assessment of Mitigation Potential and Livelihoods in Smallholder Systems
Funding provided by:
CCAFS, Environment Canada, Gov’t of Finland, USAID, Bayer
CropScience, ICAR, BMBF, DAAD, CLIFF
t.rosenstock@cgiar.org
Notas do Editor
From a famous 2009 paper by many experts led by Johan RockstromMany systems of earth have non-linear responses to changes, with important thresholds that, if crossed, could lead to disastrous changes such as a shift in the monsoon cycleThe proposed boundaries relate to values of control variables that represent a safe value for these thresholdsAgriculture makes a substantial contribution toward crossing those boundaries
~60% of global N2O budget15 studies, primary cause is fertilizer
The need for empirically validated equations. One could easily classify forests in Kenya according to Brown/Chave’s guidelines (rainfall, evapotranspiration) but then miss outAgricultural landscapes resemble a hybrid of dry and wet forest typeHenry et al. 2009 underestimated AGB
The need for empirically validated equations. One could easily classify forests in Kenya according to Brown/Chave’s guidelines (rainfall, evapotranspiration) but then miss outAgricultural landscapes resemble a hybrid of dry and wet forest typeHenry et al. 2009 underestimated AGB
-The challenge is development of a measurement program that can capture this type of heterogeneity, where there are multiple sources and siink and livelihood options-It is at the scales relevant to decision making-and it has the appropriate amount of uncertaintyMitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture (MICCA) ProgramFew data are available to know the impacts of smallholders on climateAcquiring better and more data is complicated by logistical and technical challenges
-This diagram shows the various components of the SAMPLES program (Standard Assessment of Mitigation Potential and Livelihoods in Smallholder Systems). -I believe Mariana Rufino will specifically about the research compoenent later in the session-Highlights of this slide: - Integrated program from priority setting, methods development, capacity building and research - Currently being applied at two pilot sites, we are exploring different systems (Specifically selected because of mitigation potential but also to be as different as Multi-scale sampling procedure for GHG and livelihood indicatorsRigorous, consistent & low-cost measurement methodsTraining materials for field and lab techniciansPlace-based low-emission development solutionsDatabase of results possible). It is not only the systems that differ between the two sites, but also funcational components such as partners (e.g. NARS vs University). We are tryHuman and institutional capacity to carry out complex environmental research ing out different models to see what might work. (Inside the bubbles are key component for each site) - International consortium developing a protocol for (relatively) low-cost quantification greenhouse gas balance and mitigation options for farms and landscapes. The latter scale part being important because it corresponds with the scales at which decisions are being made, the household and communities - Funding form an international consortium including: Environment ministry of canada, CCAFS, UN FAO through the Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture Program (MICCA)
-Methods, in the field, in the laboratory have a significnat impact on the results-And there is a large variation in the type of methods used-This study reviewed 360 chamber measurement of N2O and found nearly 60% made insufficiently rigorous measurement
Comparative analysis of methods across scale, cost and accuracy
This is how we’ve approached the landscape.We have stratified landscape into units using all sort of info.These landscapes have farmers (land users) and also common lands. This is the level at which we relate to poverty and food security, but not necessarily the level at which we measure emissions or productivity. So, for emissions measurement, we went to a finer level, at which we characterized field types (linked to management and emission potentials). The same can be done with common lands- types of woodlands or rangelands.
That information can then becombined with expert opinion about the climate impacts to help guide the samplingDifferent sources and sinks demand different measurement strategies over space and time.Relative strength of emission sources and sinksRelative potential to change practices and have substantial impacts on emissions (is there a technical potential to change)It will also provide you information where potential interventions might be
The purpose of this slide it:-list the -practices EADD is already advocating-show that productivity and climate mitigation are possible-what we need to know is the magnitude of the + and the direction of the +/- for a range of practices+ = has positive effect= has negative effect+/- = has uncertain effect, may depend on managementCO2 = carbon dioxideCH4 = methane (21x as potent CO2 over 100 years)N2O = nitrous oxide (310x as potent as CO2 over 100 years)
-This diagram shows the various components of the SAMPLES program (Standard Assessment of Mitigation Potential and Livelihoods in Smallholder Systems). -I believe Mariana Rufino will specifically about the research compoenent later in the session-Highlights of this slide: - Integrated program from priority setting, methods development, capacity building and research - Currently being applied at two pilot sites, we are exploring different systems (Specifically selected because of mitigation potential but also to be as different as Multi-scale sampling procedure for GHG and livelihood indicatorsRigorous, consistent & low-cost measurement methodsTraining materials for field and lab techniciansPlace-based low-emission development solutionsDatabase of results possible). It is not only the systems that differ between the two sites, but also funcational components such as partners (e.g. NARS vs University). We are tryHuman and institutional capacity to carry out complex environmental research ing out different models to see what might work. (Inside the bubbles are key component for each site) - International consortium developing a protocol for (relatively) low-cost quantification greenhouse gas balance and mitigation options for farms and landscapes. The latter scale part being important because it corresponds with the scales at which decisions are being made, the household and communities - Funding form an international consortium including: Environment ministry of canada, CCAFS, UN FAO through the Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture Program (MICCA)
-This diagram shows the various components of the SAMPLES program (Standard Assessment of Mitigation Potential and Livelihoods in Smallholder Systems). -I believe Mariana Rufino will specifically about the research compoenent later in the session-Highlights of this slide: - Integrated program from priority setting, methods development, capacity building and research - Currently being applied at two pilot sites, we are exploring different systems (Specifically selected because of mitigation potential but also to be as different as Multi-scale sampling procedure for GHG and livelihood indicatorsRigorous, consistent & low-cost measurement methodsTraining materials for field and lab techniciansPlace-based low-emission development solutionsDatabase of results possible). It is not only the systems that differ between the two sites, but also funcational components such as partners (e.g. NARS vs University). We are tryHuman and institutional capacity to carry out complex environmental research ing out different models to see what might work. (Inside the bubbles are key component for each site) - International consortium developing a protocol for (relatively) low-cost quantification greenhouse gas balance and mitigation options for farms and landscapes. The latter scale part being important because it corresponds with the scales at which decisions are being made, the household and communities - Funding form an international consortium including: Environment ministry of canada, CCAFS, UN FAO through the Mitigation of Climate Change in Agriculture Program (MICCA)