Advance knowledge of climate information is important in helping farmers make decisions on resource allocation and type agricultural enterprises in a season. Climate information coupled with agro-advisory services offers greater potential to enhance capacity of farmers to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Because of significant gaps in provision of climate services for farmers in East Africa—downscaled location-specific forecasts, reliable, timely, and user-friendly climate information that effectively addresses farmer’s needs. Farmers rely on indigenous knowledge (IK) for their seasonal forecasts, where locally observed variables and experiences are used to assess and predict the local weather conditions e.g. onset of rains. IK for climate forecasting is often passed from one generation to the other through oral history and local expertise and not widely documented, thus creating a wide inter-generational gap between IK custodians and the young generation.

1. Indigenous Knowledge for Seasonal Weather and Climate Forecasting across East Africa
Maren Radeny, Mary Nyasimi, James Kinyangi, John Recha, Drake Mubiru, Henry Mahoo, Ayal Desalegn
International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), P. O. Box 30709-00100 Nairobi, Kenya
Introduction
Advance knowledge of climate information is important in helping farmers make decisions on
resource allocation and type of agricultural enterprises in a season. Climate information coupled
with agro-advisory services offers greater potential to enhance capacity of farmers to adapt to
climate variability and climate change. In East Africa (EA), significant gaps still exist in provision
of climate services for farmers, specifically downscaled location-specific forecasts, reliable,
timely, and user-friendly climate information that effectively addresses farmer’s needs.
Consequently, farmers often rely on indigenous knowledge (IK) for their seasonal forecasts,
where locally observed variables and experiences are used to assess and predict the local
weather conditions and climate e.g. onset of rains. However, IK is not widely documented and
often passed on from one generation to another through oral history, thus creating a wide inter-
generational gap between IK custodians and the young generation.
Objective
Document and synthesize
existing IK in weather
forecasting practices, including
the major sources of climate
information for farmers and
pastoralists across East Africa.
Methods
We use case studies from four
sites across three countries in
EA—Ethiopia, Tanzania and
Uganda. Sites represent the
diverse farming systems in EA
ranging from mixed crop-
livestock to pastoral systems.
Data were collected from 397
households, complemented
with information from focus
group discussions (FGDs), and
key informant interviews.
Conclusion
Farmers and herders use these local indicators to make important agricultural production
decisions. The biological IK indicators are more variable compared to the meteorological IK
indicators. In Borana, IK forecasts are used to plan livestock mobility to reduce losses during
drought conditions. Farmers in Ethiopia and Tanzania sites, considered IK a more reliable
source of climate information. Therefore, a systematic documentation of IK and a framework
for integrating IK forecasting with modern scientific forecasts can improve the accuracy of
climate forecasts and would likely increase farmers’ trust and willingness to use scientific
forecasts in EA.
Indigenous knowledge weather and climate forecasting
Farmers and pastoralists commonly use a combination of biological, meteorological and
astrological local indicators for predicting weather.
• Meteorological indicators used to predict onset of rains include appearance and colour of
the clouds, direction and strength of the wind, temperature and humidity, lightning and
thunder, and appearance of less dew on the grass and plants.
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• Biological indicators include animals and plants. Birds and insects are the key animal
indicators. Some plants and trees are more sensitive to changes in atmospheric conditions
than others - sprouting of young shoots of the Mvule tree indicates onset of the rainy
season in Uganda.
• Astrological indicators were more pronounced among the pastoralists in Borana and include
the alignment of the moon and stars, appearance and position of the moon, size and
movement of the star. Traditional astrologists in Borana use seven stars (individual or in
groups) locally known as Lemi that are believed to be very important for forecasting.
Results
Sources and types of climate information
Differences in climate information sources across the sites. Almost all households in the pastoral
system depend on indigenous sources and social networks for climate information. Radio is the
most commonly used media to access climate and weather information in the mixed crop-
livestock systems.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Wild bird
Fischer's Lovebird
Golden Oriole
Hornbill
Wild bird
Chicken
Duck
Owl
Coucal
Swallows
Percent of households
IndicatorsbasedonbirdsinLushoto
References
Chang’a L, Yanda P, Ngana, J. 2010. Indigenous Knowledge in Seasonal rainfall prediction in
Tanzania: A case of the South-Western Highland of Tanzania. Journal of Geography and
Regional Planning 3: 66-72.
Egeru A. 2012. Role of Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Change Adaptation: A case study of
the Teso Sub-Region, Eastern Uganda. Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge 11: 217-224.
Poster design by: S.Kilungu (CCAFS) Contact: Maren Radeny: m.radeny@cgiar.org
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Newspapers and television
Village meetings
Indigenous sources
NGOs, researchers & extension workers
Relatives, neighbours and friends
Radio
Percent of households
Sourcesofclimateinformation
Rakai Hoima Lushoto Borana
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Appearance of less dew on the grass/plants
Lightning and thunder at night with no rain
Very high temperatures at night
Direction and strength of the wind
Appearance of dark clouds
Percent of households
Meteorologicalindicators
Rakai Hoima
The onset and amount of rainfall are the most important information farmers receive. Other
types of information include distribution and cessation of rainfall, duration of the cropping/rainy
season, and severity of weather events (e.g. drought, floods, occurrence of strong winds).
• Indicates that the next main rainy
season would be normal, a time of
abundance, peace and love in Borana.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Reliable Somewhat reliable Not reliable
Percentofhouseholds
Reliability of climate forecast information in Lushoto
Indigenous Scientific
• Occurrence of a halo moon (moon surrounded
by yellow ring) indicates the likelihood of onset
of rains for main and short seasons in Lushoto.
Over 55% of farmers in Lushoto believe IK forecasts are reliable,
while close to 38% believe scientific forecasts are not reliable.