CCAFS workshop titled "Using Climate Scenarios and Analogues for Designing Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture," 19-23 September in Kathmandu, Nepal.

1. MarkSim GCM: generating plausible weather data for future climates September 2011

2. MarkSim GCM A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic (to some extent) of future climatologies for any point on the globe, to drive agricultural impact models

5. Multi-model global averages of surface warming (relative to 1980-99) for the SRES scenarios The future is uncertain: which GCM, which emissions scenario?

6. Projected mean impacts on global temperatures of three different scenarios Global mean warming from the IPCC multi-model ensemble mean for three periods relative to 1980–1999 (Wilby et al. 2009, data source IPCC 2007) 0.56 0.47 0.37 Committed warming (emissions stabilised at 2000 levels) 1.79 1.29 0.66 B1 (“low” emissions) 2.65 1.75 0.69 A1B (“medium” emissions) 3.13 1.65 0.64 A2 (“high” emissions) 2080-2099 2046-2065 2011-2030 Scenario

7. Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models used in MarkSim GCM4 AVR Average climatology of the above 6 AOGCMs Ensemble average MIR Center for Climate System Research (University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (JAMSTEC), Japan MIROC3.2 (medres) INM Institute for Numerical Mathematics, Moscow, Russia INMCM3_0 ECH Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany ECHam5 CSI Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Atmospheric Research, Melbourne, Australia CSIRO-Mk3_5 CNR Météo-France/Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, France CNRM-CM3 BCC Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (University of Bergen, Norway) BCCR_BCM2.0 Code Institution Model Name

8. How different are the projections of rainfall and temperature among the various GCMs? One good place to find out: http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/

9. June precipitation anomalies (relative to the 20th century control 1961-1990 30-year normal) for 2046-2065 for SRES A2 and four GCMs www.ipcc-data.org

10. Annual rainfall changes (mm) from 2000 to 2050, A2 CNR CSI ECH MIR

14. What to use for “observations”? Could use www.worldclim.org

21. The tool allows you to select one of the three scenarios, and one of 6 climate models (or their average)

22. Select climate model Select emissions scenario Select the centre year of the time slice and number of years of data wanted Select location (the ILRI cafeteria in Nairobi)

23. … graphed … After running the model, the daily data can be viewed directly … … or downloaded as a ZIP file to the user’s computer

24. Region Dec-Jan Jun-Aug Limitations and uncertainties associated with these data GCM consistency in regional precipitation projections for 2090-2099 (SRES A1B). IPCC, 2007 Large decrease (>20%) Inconsistent Southern Africa Inconsistent Small increase (5-20%) East Africa Inconsistent Inconsistent West Africa Inconsistent Small decrease (5-20%) Sahara

25. http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/ Demo