1. Climate change adaptation from
start to finish: The case for
Colombia

2. The
challenge:
Colombia
is a victim
of climate
variability
Maíz
Arroz
T-Max
Rendimient
o
Rendimient
o
T-Max
Climate anomolies and
production anomolies go
hand in hand
Fuente: Agronet y CRU (http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/data/cru/)

3. And in the long
term
• Coffee suitability in the
Cauca region
• Significant changes to
2020, drastic changes
to 2050
• The Cauca case:
reduced coffeee
growing area and
changes in geographic
distribution. Some
new opportunities.
MECETA

4. Diagnose the problem

5. Vulnerability mapping
Food security
Income

6. Listen to farmers
• Listen to local perspectives of vulnerability
• Participatory identification of adaptation options
Girardot - Maize
Ipiales - Potato
San Gil - Beans

7. A systematic look at impacts and
economic costs across LAC
• Detailed crop
modelling of climate
impacts across LAC
• Analysis of social and
economic impacts
• Zoom in analysis at
national level
Crops
Food Supply
(kcal/capita/day)
Harvested Area
(Ha)
Contribution
to GDP
DSSAT
model?
41,171,982.60
10,270,087.00
28,633,254.40
8,988,559.80
5,943,971.40
7,240,355.00
342,874.20
199,494.00
1,190,503.00
5,706,389.00
2,052,958.80
998,955.20
242,739.60
1,495,006.20
Net Production
Value (constant
2004-2006 1000 I$)
27,707,066
25,072,226
6,087,072
3,505,114
7,092,796
3,602,564
4,107,232
1,902,269
7,065,053
4,986,781
127,456
2,453,723
1,167,699
5,170,592
Soybean
Sugar Cane
Maize
Wheat
Rice
Beans
Tomatoes
Pineapples
Bananas
Coffee
Sorghum
Potatoes
Onions
Oranges,
Mandarines
Palm
Lemons,
Limes
Grapes
Cottonseed
Oil
Apples
Nuts
Coconut
Groundnuts
Cassava
Plantains
Cocoa Beans
sunflower
Yams
Mangoes
170
383
435
331
296
90
11
5
34
3
6
34
7
17
5
13
5
1
8
2
1
2
16
4
0
1
0
1
y
n
y
y
y
y
n
n
n
n
y
y
n
n
64
3
1,085,119.00
319,617.20
1,078,458
2,095,406
1
0
n
n
3
8
547,380.00
1,873,788.60
4,124,806
953,103
1
0
n
n
5
6
21
11
44
33
3
18
12
NA
192,937.80
574,795.65
676,841.00
534,019.00
2,747,793.60
948,142.00
1,476,678.40
2,588,299.00
173,591.40
435,323.20
1,748,896
943,316
589,058
515,363
2,027,450
1,572,812
520,235
1,142,205
270,343
2,705,656
0
0
0
1
3
1
0
0
2
2
n
n
n
y
n
n
n
n
n
n

8. Prioritise

10. Ranked List of Practices
Practice
CBA Quality
1 Silvopastoral Systems
1.5 2.11
2 Efficient Use of Fertilizer 1.4 2.87
3 Improved Forages
1.3 2.85
4 Biogas
1.2 2.36
Grass-Legume
5 Association
1.2 2.11
6 Water harvest structure
1.2 2.08
Silage, haylage and
7 nutritional blocks
1 2.01
9 Early warning systems
1 1.89

11. Act

12. Objectives
1) Generate capacity to reduce agroclimatic risk: modelling impacts
and seasonal forecasting
2) Close the yield gap through climate specific agriculture
3) Evaluate and generate new adapted technologies
4) Evaluate resource efficient production systems (water and carbon
footprints) and establish new incentive structures for their
adoption (PES, NAMAs, low carbon development pathways etc.)

13. In action
9 Partners
52 Municipalities
16 Departments
>800 experimental lots in 20 localities
> 200 on farm participatory experiments
> 40 events with 660 participants and 32
institutions
97 researchers working on the program
> 70 technologies being evaluated

14. What defines yield?
51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice

15. Matching technologies
with climate in space
and time

16. PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST
33
Normal
Below
33
31
22
27
31
33
Above
38
39
33
51
37
33
31
28
Agroclimatic
Seasonal
forecasting

17. Big opportunities for
reducing water
dependency

18. Global learning

19. Leb by
Climate smart villages:
Key agricultural activities for managing risks

20. Climate resilience
Pulling the pieces together
Adapted
technologies
Baseline
Adapted
technologies
+
Climatespecific
management
Adapted
Adapted
technologies
technologies
+
+
Climate-specific
Climatemanagement
specific
+
management
Seasonal
+
agroclimatic
Seasonal
forecasts
agroclimatic
+
forecasts
Efficient
resource use
Climate smartness
Adapted
technologies
+
Climatespecific
management
+
Seasonal
agroclimatic
forecasts
+
Efficient
resource use
+
Enabling
environment
NAPs and
NAMAs

21. Gracias!
www.aclimatesectoragropecuariocolombiano.org