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CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK for INVESTIGATING ADEQUACY OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES CLIMATE DRIVER  (SLR, Drought, Flood) Factors that buffer/accelerate impacts (Matrix at each geographical timescale: global, nat, sub-nat, local) ,[object Object]
Institutional (no land tenure system)
Technological (a dam)
Economic (market in place)
Social (AIDS? Safety nets?)
Policy
Culture
…Effects of Climate Impacts & resulting Adaptation strategies on: ,[object Object]
Livelihoods (food security)

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Adaptation 2

  • 1.
  • 2. Institutional (no land tenure system)
  • 8.
  • 10. Gender relations and social equity
  • 12.
  • 13. How to do it? Step 1 (by Sept end): Meta-analysis of: CCAFS baseline surveys of 5000 hhs literature of factors associated with coping/adaptation strategies gap analysis of methods Step 2 (early 2012): Workshop to identify pilot studies in CCAFS regions and refine methodology based on meta-analysis Step 3 (mid 2012): Pilot study of communities to develop methodologies (small number) Step 4 (end of project): Methods and policy recommendations
  • 14. Criteria for selecting pilot communities (small number as function of $$$) Cover 3 CCAF regions Use communities/villages where baseline CCAFS has surveyed social capital Don’t duplicate other studies Cover range of production systems and climate shocks Communities where history of adaptation ….
  • 15. Pilot study communities Disciplines include: Climate, adaptation, land use/land cover, institutional/governance, anthropology Development, agriculture applications Methods include: Community vulnerability and capacity assessments (participatory community, focus groups, vulnerability capacity assessment, household surveys) Landscape changes (remote sensing) climate historical data changes in yield/cultivars/traits trade-off and synergy analysis
  • 16. What is novel about this proposal? Empirical testing of methods to evaluate multiple consequences of coping/adaptation strategies on food security, environment, and livelihoods, including: societal consequences of current adaptation strategies, including on food security, gender relations/social equity, local governance feedbacks to biogeochemical cycles and land use Development of climate-resilient and climate-smart policy recommendations to enhance adaptation at the local level Generalizable methods to assess rural producer strategies and their viability with changing climate
  • 18. Volunteers for meta-analysis Overall: Arame Tall, Ruth DeFries Baseline surveys: Florence Kyazze, HeznomMogake (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania), Bharat P. Upadhyay (Nepal) Literature review: AriellaHelfgott, AhsanUddin Ahmed, CheikhMbow (Senegal) Methods gap analysis: SharmindNeelormi, AhsanUddin Ahmed, AriellaHelfgott, Ruth DeFries (RS)
  • 19.