2. US headlines
• U.S. auto sales continues to improve
• U.S. real GDP grew by 2.8%
• U.S. Employment grew by 204,000 in
Oct, which was above expectation
• U.S. Small Firms shaken by shutdown
Forecasts
GDP
Consumer Spending
Consumer Price Index
Savings Rate
Source: Moody's 11-22-13
2013
1.6%
4.4%
1.5%
4.5%
2014
3.1%
5.8%
1.8%
4.8%
3. Components: Current
• Wichita Non-Farm Employment
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)
• Wichita Unemployment rate
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (LAUS) – seasonally adjusted by CEDBR
• Manufacturing Weekly Hours worked
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES) – seasonally adjusted by CEDBR
• Manufacturing Earnings
– Bureau of Labor Statistics (CES)– seasonally adjusted by CEDBR
4. Components: Leading
• Aircraft production index
– Board of Governors - Federal Reserve System
• Kansas Leading index
– Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
• National production index
– Board of Governors - Federal Reserve System
• International leading index
– Organizations for Economic Co-Operation and
Development
5.
6. WSU Current Conditions Index
WSU Wichita Current Conditions Index
Current Conditions Index
Index Components - Wichita MSA
Total Non-farm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Hours of Production Employees*
Earnings of Production Employees*
Aug-13
92.9
287,200
6.4%
44.9
$885.20
Monthly
Annual
Jul-13
% Change % Change
92.4
0.5%
1.0%
286,200
6.5%
43.8
$869.11
0.3%
-0.1%
2.5%
1.9%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, data compiled by CEDBR and seasonally adjusted
*Manufacturing Weekly Average
0.6%
-0.2%
4.2%
3.3%
7. Summary - WSU Current
Conditions
• The Wichita economy has improved slightly,
but not solid consistent growth.
• Manufacturing appears to be poised for a
recover, but employment is likely delayed for
several more months.
• Although unemployment has come down
slightly, the labor market has a long ways to go
for recovery.
8. WSU Leading Conditions Index
WSU Wichita Leading Conditions Index
Leading Conditions Index
Predicted change*
Index Components
Aircraft Production Index
Kansas Leading Index
National Industrial Production Index
International Leading Index
Aug-13
93.0
0.18
98.8
1.4
99.5
100.6
Monthly
Annual
Jul-13
% Change % Change
92.5
0.6%
1.1%
0.13
97.2
1.0
99.1
100.5
1.6%
40.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
55.6%
2.8%
0.9%
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,
Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), data compiled by CEDBR
*Predicted change in the level of economic activity over the next six months from the current level of
economic activity.
9.
10. Summary - WSU Leading
Conditions
• Aircraft production should continue to
improve.
• International outlook is improving, and will
start to spill over to the US.
14. Holiday Spending
• More consumers shopping mobile and local
• Two-thirds plan to shop small business or
independent retailer
• Top retail location are discount stores
• Moderate gains this holiday (4-4.5% increase)
• Number of expected gifts have leveled off
Source: Deloitte
23. CEDBR
DATA
WSU's Center for Economic
Development and Business Research
is a responsive, reliable source of
local, state and national demographic
and economic data.
KANSAS INFORMATION DATABASE
The Kansas Information Database
(KID) is a set of data containing
economically pertinent news articles
and information on the state of
Kansas and the Midwest region.
MARKET RESEARCH
CEDBR provides customized market
research to government, businesses
and nonprofit agencies.
Research.CEDBR.org
FORECASTS
CEDBR provides employment and
retail sales forecasts, as well as
population projections.
Presentations.CEDBR.org
CEDBR E-CONNECTION
CEDBR publishes e-connection, a
monthly e-mail newsletter, providing
ongoing reports on business and the
economy, as well as timely delivery of
special reports.
Newsletter.CEDBR.org