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OPEN WEB SITE FOR
                                                        PRESIDENT OBAMA

   FI CR




                                  SU
     NA IS
                                                       HIS ADMINISTRATION

       NC IS




                                     BPR
                                                      MEMBERS OF CONGRESS
         IA
            L




                                        IME
                                                               AND
    S
                                                          THE AMERICAN




                                         MO
                             IS
                        IS                                 TAXPAYERS
                     CR




                                            RTG
                  IC
                OM
            N
          CO




                                               AG
        E




                                                 ES
TOXIC ASSETS

 •THE US TAXPAYER AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
 •THE US TAXPAYER AND GOVERNMENT
 •ONE OF VERY FEW SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT CONFIDENCE
 CRISIS

 •IS ETHICAL PROFITABLE CONSUMER BANKING A MYTH?



                                                                       1
                      cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
EMAIL LIST
   PRESIDENT OBAMA                                   FEBRUARY 5, 2009
   US ADMINISTRATION                                 FEBRUARY 7, 2009
   MEMBER OF CONGRESS                                FEBRUARY 9, 2009
   US TAXPAYERS                                      MID FEBRUARY



                                     CAVEAT

   THE AUTHOR(S) OF THIS SITE AND OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ARE INDIVIDUAL
    US TAXPAYERS.
   ALL THE INFORMATION AND DATA COMES FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE SOURCES,
    MAINLY IF NOT ALWAYS, FROM THE INTERNET
   THE AUTHOR MAY HAVE MADE NUMERICAL ERRORS IN THIS DOCUMENT, BUT
    BELIEVES THAT THEY WOULD HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON THE ANALYSIS AND
    CONCLUSION.




                                                                             2
                         cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
 “We start 2009 in the midst of a crisis unlike any we
  have seen in our lifetime, a crisis that has only
  deepened over the last few weeks. Nearly 2 million jobs
  have been now lost. And on Friday, we're likely to learn
  that we lost more jobs last year than at any time since
  World War II. Just in the past year, another 2.8 million
  Americans who want and need full–time work have had
  to settle for part–time jobs.“




                                                             3
                   cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
NEVER SO FEW HAVE DONE SO MUCH DAMAGE TO THE WORLD
FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THEIR ECONOMY




                                                       FEW
                                            NEVER SO




                                                             4
                cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR. PRESIDENT



 WE TAXPAYERS HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE
   – WITH OUT IT, IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO RESUME NORMAL
     ECONOMIC LIFE
 WE ORIGINALLY HAD LOST CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT OF THE
  FINANCIAL CRISIS
 THEN,WE HAD LOST CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT OF THE ECONOMIC
  CRISIS
 BUT AT THIS STAGE WE HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE BECAUSE THERE
  DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A VIABLE UNDERSTANDABLE SOLUTION




                                                                 5
                     cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR PRESIDENT
AS YOU WELL KNOW:


                                                                                 THE US TAXPAYERS
                                                                                   –   DECLARES $8.0TRILLION IN AGI
                           DOMESTIC DEPOSITS

                                                                                   –   HAS OVER $40TRILLION IN ASSETS
                                                                                 $ 7.5TRILLION IN SHORT TERM
$9.0

                                                                                  ASSETS
$8.0
                                                       A.G.I.                           •   $15.5TRILLION IN SECURITIES
$7.0
                                                                                 HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
                                                                                  SOPHISTICATED FINANCIALY OVER
$6.0
                                                                                  THE PAST DECADE.
$5.0
                                                                                 WHILE WE MAY NOT UNDERSTAND
                                                                                  (WHO DOES) ALL THE REASONS FOR
$4.0                                                       DEPOSITS
                                                                                  THE CURRENT CRISIS, WE ARE STILL
$3.0
                                                                                  ABLE TO GRASP THE FOLLOWING
                                                                                  FACTS:
$2.0
                                                                                   –   THAT FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES
$1.0                                                                                   (WALL STREET) HAVE AGAIN ABUSED
                                                                                       THEIR FRANCHISES
$0.0
                                                                                   –   THAT IT HAS AN UNBEARABLE
  1990   1992   1994    1996      1998         2000     2002    2004   2006            FINANCIAL IMPACT ON OUR DAILY
                                                                                       LIVES AND THE FUTURE OF OUR
                       DOMESTIC DEPOSITS          A.G.I.                               ECONOMY




                                                                                                                          6
                                                      cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR PRESIDENT
THE US TAXPAYERS, SINCE THE EARLY 90’S, HAVE BEEN “GOOD
CITIZENS”. AS A RESULT, WE INCREASED OUR HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY
16 MILLIONS SINCE 1990., REACHING OVER 110 MILLIONS.


                                                              “GOOD CITIZENS”
                   US HOUSEHOLDS
                                                                      –   WE HAVE LEVERAGED THE NEW
                                                                          TECHNOLOGIES TO CREATE NEW
 120
                                                                          BUSINESS SECTORS CREATING
                                                                          MILLIONS OF JOBS
                                                                      –   WE HAVE DEDICATED OURSELVES TO
                                                                          HARD WORK
 110
                                                                      –   WE HAVE PAID SUBSTANCIAL TAXES
                                                                      –   WE HAVE SAVED (JUST THROUGH BANK
                                                                          DEPOSITS) $3.3TRILLION DOLLARS FROM
                                                                          1995 TO 2007
 100
                                                                AND AS A RESULTS WE WANTED
                                                                      –   TO MOVE UP IN HOMES OR TO BUY OUR
                                                                          FIRST HOME
 90
                                                                      –   TO PURCHASE A NEW CAR
                                                                      –   TO GET NEW WHITE GOODS

 80                                                             AND WE EXPECTEDED THE FINANCIAL
                                                                 INTERMEDIARIES AND THE US
   1980   1985   1990      1995    2000      2005   2010
                                                                 GOVERNEMENT TO DO THEIR JOB
                        US HOUSHOLDS




                                                                                                           7
                                          cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR PRESIDENT
DESPITE OUR DEPOSIT OF MORE THAN $7.0TRILLION (60% FDIC
INSURED),THIS HISTORICALY HIGH DEMAND FOR HOME FINANCING OF
MORTGAGES WAS ONLY PARTIALY FINANCED, AS HISTORICALY,
FROM THE BALANCE SHEET OF THE TRADITIONAL BANKING SYSTEM


                         HOUSEHOLDS                                                           COMMERCIAL BANKS DEPOSITS
                       HOME OWNERSHIP                                                                  (FDIC)
                               HOME OWNERSHIP
                                                                            7,000,000,000
   70.00%


                                                                            6,000,000,000
   69.00%


                                                                            5,000,000,000
   68.00%



                                                                            4,000,000,000
   67.00%



                                                                            3,000,000,000
   66.00%




                                                                            2,000,000,000
   65.00%




                                                                            1,000,000,000
   64.00%




   63.00%
                                                                                       0
         1975   1980    1985    1990            1995   2000   2005   2010
                                                                                       1990   1992   1994   1996       1998          2000   2002      2004    2006   2008
                                   HOME OWNERSHIP
                                                                                                            1-4 FAMILY RESIDENTIAL     NET LOANS AND LEASES




                                                                                                                                                                        8
                                                       cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
BUT A VERY LARGE AMOUNT ($2.0 TO $3.5TRILLION) WERE FINANCED
WITH EXOTIC FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT THAT ORIGINATED MUCH
MORE FEE INCOME FOR THE COMMERCIAL BANKS


U.S. Mortgage Market
OUTSTANDING MORTGAGES                                                                                           THE BANKS GROUPED
                                                (Dolla inM
                                                      rs illions)
                                                                                                                 SECURITIZED A LARGE PART OF
                                                  Total       N on-      Total    Residential Total M Sas
                                                                                                     B
                                                                                                                 THEM (ABS, RMBS,..)
  Year  GA
         NM             FHLM  C    FN A
                                     M           Agency A     gency       MS
                                                                           B      Mortgages %of R M esi tg
  1980   93,874           16,962                    110,836               110,836      962,2 59       11.5
                                                                                                                THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR A BANK
  1981  105,790           19,897          717       126,404               126,404    1,034,8 57       12.2
  1982  118,940           42,952      14,450        176,342               176,342    1,074,9 95       16.4
                                                                                                                 TO GO THROUGH THESE
  1983  159,981           57,720      25,121        242,822               242,822    1,191,6 48       20.4
                                                                                                                 EXPENSIVE STEPS
  1984  179,981           70,025      36,215        286,221 11,000        286,221    1,326,0 92       21.6
  1985  212,145           99,908      54,987        367,040 24,016        367,040    1,523,5 90       24.1
                                                                                                                 (SECURITIZATION) IS TO BE ABLE
  1986  262,698          169,186      95,778        527,662 16,617        527,662    1,726,4 60       30.6
  1987
                                                                                                                 TO TRANSFER THE UNDER LYING
        315,832          205,992     137,330        659,154 27,800        686,954    1,924,2 18       35.7
  1988  340,527          219,701     172,259        732,487 34,865        767,352    2,157,7 49       35.6
                                                                                                                 LOAN TO A NEW PARTY, USUALLY
  1989  369,687          266,060     219,577        855,324 43,325        898,649    2,382,9 54       37.7
  1990  401,278          308,369     291,194      1,000,841 55,193      1,054,176    2,619,0 09       40.3
                                                                                                                 A NONE BANK ENTITY, OUT OF
  1991  425,241          351,906     362,667      1,139,814 98,183      1,223,814    2,787,1 86       43.9
                                                                                                                 YOUR OWN BALANCE SHEET SO
  1992  419,516          401,525     435,979      1,257,020 146,146     1,389,020    2,955,0 12       47.0
  1993  414,066          434,499     486,804      1,335,369 174,571     1,519,069    3,116,5 00       48.7
                                                                                                                 THAT YOU FREE UP FUNDS TO DO
  1994  450,934          460,656     530,343      1,441,933 192,637     1,647,933    3,296,2 49       50.0
                                                                                                                 NEW LOANS.
  1995  472,283          512,238     569,724      1,554,245 206,487     1,778,545    3,467,2 57       51.3
  1996  506,340          551,513     633,210      1,691,063 232,206     1,947,263    3,695,1 59       52.7
                                                                                                                BUT THE COMMERCIAL BANKS
  1997  536,810          576,846     687,981      1,801,637 276,930     2,112,337    3,935,9 95       53.7
  1998  537,431          640,471     804,205      1,982,107 355,470     2,390,251    4,294,7 68       55.7
                                                                                                                 KEPT (31/2/2007) $1,0TRILLION OF
  1999  582,263          740,157     924,941      2,247,361 394,559     2,706,828    4,716,5 58       57.4
  2000  611,553          810,894   1,016 ,398     2,438,845 426,265     2,865,110    5,126,3 12       55.9
                                                                                                                 THESE SECURITIES ON THEIR
  2001  591,368          940,933   1,238 ,125     2,770,426 496,101     3,266,527    5,635,7 91       58.0
                                                                                                                 BALANCE SHEET.
  2002  537,888        1,072,990   1,478 ,610     3,089,488 551,806     3,641,294    6,309,6 23       57.7
  2003                 1,156,188
        473,738                    1,851 ,728     3,481,654 683,231     4,164,885    7,105,0 53       58.6
  2004                 1,199,290   1,984,21 7                           4,696,746
        441,345                                   3,624,852 1,071,894                8,071,0 89       58.2
 20 3 411,870
   05-Q                1,284,393   2,226,00 0                           5,332,263
                                                  3,922,263 1,410,000                8,784,3 00       60.7
Source: Insid M &AB
             e BS  S
Estim tesinitalics
     a




                                                                                                                                                    9
                                                                                  cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR PRESIDENT
THE BANKS TOOK THE RISK OF RECATEGORIZING RESIDENTIAL
MORTGAGES ON THEIR BALANCE SHEET FROM LOANS TO
SECURITIES FOR INCREASE FEES


  AS A RESULT THESE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES CHANGED IN
   ACCOUNTING RULES FROM LOAN ACCOUNTING TO SECURITIES
   ACCOUNTING (MEANING MARK-TO-MARKET)
  TO COMPOUND THIS, THEY INVESTED ON THEIR BALANCE SHEET
   $1.1TRILLION 60% OF THEIR EQUITY BASE IN MORTGAGE BACKED
   SECURITIES ($970BILLION).
  NO INVESTMENT FIRM OR INVESTOR WOULD COMMIT 60% OF HIS
   NET WORTH TO A SINGLE INDUSTRY
  WHY? THE MAIN REASON I CAN THINK OF IS THAT IT GENERATED
   ENORMOUS FEE INCOME (FOR THEM AS FOR WALL STREET). THIS
   INCREASED FEE INCOME PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED
   SUBSTANCIALLY TO THEIR COMPENSATION PACKAGE.


                                                         10
                   cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
Enhancement Reflects Collateral Differences

                                          Collateral                                            “Six-Pack” Deal                             Deal with XS / OC

 In Non-Agency MBS, credit
  enhancement structures
  come mainly in two flavors




                                           Deal Collateral Face Value -
                                                                                                  AAAs




                                            Total Principal Payments
   “Six-pack” structures where                                                                                                                  AAAs
      several locked-out subs
      provide credit enhancement.
      Mainly used on Jumbos and                                                                  AA “M1”
      Alt-As




                                                                          Credit Enhancement
                                                                                                  A “M2”




                                                                           Classic “Six Pack”
   Excess-spread / Over-                                                                                                                       AA “M1”




                                                                                                                  Excess-Spread O/C-based
      collateralization structures,                                                             BBB “M3”




                                                                                                                     Credit Enhancement
      where locked-out subs are
                                                                                                 BB “B1”                                        A “M2”
      complemented by excess
      interest from the collateral to                                                             B “B2”
      cover losses. Mainly used in                                                                                                            BBB “M3”
                                                                                                 N.R. “B3”
      Subprime, High-LTV,
      Scratch & Dent, sometimes                                                                                                                XS – OC
                                            Payments


                                                                                                     IO
                                             Interest



      Alt-A
                                                                                                                                               Residual
                                                                                                Interest on                                   Interest on
                                                                                                 the bonds                                     the bonds
                                                                                                                                                        11
                            cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
BUT



       LIKE ANY AND MANY ECONOMIC CYCLES, ON THE PART
        OF THE US TAXPAYERS THERE WERE SOME
        EXCESSES.

       SOME TAXPAYERS OVEREXTENDED THEMSELVES

       SOME TAXPAYERS RAN THEIR CREDITCARD BALANCE

       SOME OVERPAID FOR THEIR HOMES…

            • IT SHOULD HAVE RESULTED IN A CORRECTION,
              BUT NOT IN A WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS



                                                         12
                   cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
OPEN WEB SITE FOR
                        PRESIDENT OBAMA
                       HIS ADMINISTRATION
                      MEMBERS OF CONGRESS
                               AND
                     THE AMERICAN TAXPAYERS


•THE US TAXPAYER AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
•THE US TAXPAYER AND THE GOVERNMENT
•ONE OF VERY FEW SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT CRISIS
   •FINANCIAL CRISIS
   •CONFIDENCE CRISIS

•IS ETHICAL PROFITABLE CONSUMER BANKING A MYTH?




                        cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
IN 2008, THE US TAXPAYERS CONTRIBUTES $1.1TRILLION OUT
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS OF $2.5TRILLION




                                                         14
                  cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
WHEN CALCULATED AS A PERCENTAGE OF INCOME TAX
RECEIPTS, THE FEDERAL DEBT IS NOT OVERWHELMING.




                                                                                     INCOME TAX RECEIPTS
                                                                                      AS PERCENT OF GDP
                                                           25.0%



                                                           20.0%



                                                           15.0%



                                                           10.0%



                                                            5.0%



                                                            0.0%
                                                                1990   1992   1994   1996   1998      2000        2002   2004   2006    2008

                                                                                            INCOME TAX AS % GDP




   DEBT SHOULD NOT BE CALCULATED NOT AS % OF GDP (REVENUES IN CORPORATE WORLD), BUT AS % OF INCOME TAXES
   (EQUIVALENT TO NET INCOME IN THE CORPORATE WORLD)
                                                                                                                                       15
                                   cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR. PRESIDENT




 THE US TAXPAYER IS PROVIDING THE CASH FLOW FOR THE
  FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO BE ABLE TO BORROW $10,000BILLION
  IN FEDERAL DEBT
   – $76,000 PER TAXPAYER
 THE US TAXPAYER IS THE ULTIMATE PAYER FOR THE $452BILLION
  IN YEARLY INTEREST COST
   – $3,476 PER TAXPAYER




                                                              16
                     cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
THE S&L CRISIS COST BETWEEN $50-100BILLION FOR THE
 TAXPAYERS, THE CURRENT CRISIS MAY COST $400-800BILLION IF THE
 GOVERNMENT RELIES ON THE SAME OR SIMILAR ACTIONS

      The thrift cleanup was Congress's response to the greatest collapse of U.S. financial institutions
       since the 1930s.
         – From 1986 to 1989, the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC), the
            insurer of the thrift industry, closed or otherwise resolved 296 institutions with total assets of
            $125 billion (table 1).3
         – An even more traumatic period followed, with the creation of the Resolution Trust
            Corporation (RTC) in 1989 and that agency's resolution by mid-1995 of an additional 747
            thrifts with total assets of $394 billion.
         – The combined closings by both agencies of 1,043 institutions holding $519 billion in assets
            contributed to a massive restructuring of the number of firms in the industry. From January 1,
            1986, through year-end 1995, the number of federally insured thrift institutions in the United
            States declined from 3,234 to 1,645, or by approximately 50 percent




                        AND, LET US MAKE NO MISTAKE, THE SAME MINORITY
                        WILL BE THE ONE WHO WILL REAP MOST IF NOT ALL THE
                        $400-800BILLION, LIKE LAST TIME




                                                                                                           17
-http://www.allbusiness.com/business-finance/business-insurance/977722-1.html

                                              cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR PRESIDENT
PLEASE DO NOT LET YOUR ADMINISTRATION ELIMINATE
MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING




 AS THIS CRISIS SHOWS, IT PROTECTS US TAXPAYERS AND MAIN
  STREET
 IT WOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED ANY OF THE FINANCIAL DEALS
  (MORTGAGE SECURITISATION) DONE BY WALL STREET IN THE PAST
  FEW YEARS
 IT WOULD NOT HAVE IMPACTED THE EXCESSES IN COMPENSATION
  AS THE LAST $18.3BILLION SHOWS




                                                         18
                   cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
THE TRADITIONAL MORTGAGE LOAN PROCESS

                                       COMMERCIALBANK
            All real estate loans                       3,863,973,479
            8 Real estate loans in domestic offices:    3,794,965,620
            9 Construction and land development           554,447,534
            10 Commercial real estate                     935,093,951
            11 Multifamily residential real estate        149,177,231
            12 1-4 family residential                   2,094,503,559
            13 Farmland                                    61,743,345



               COMMERCIAL
                 BANKS




                                                                        19
                     cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
WALL STREET BONUS FOG.
EACH LEVEL OF COMPLEXITY GENERATED (AND STILL GENERATE)
SUBSTANCIAL FEES AROUND 2-3% OF SECURITY VALUE. FOR THE
BENEFIT THE MORTGAGE HOLDER?

         COMMERCIAL
           BANKS
                                                                  LEVEL 3:
                                                                  CDOXCDO

                                                                                      Asset manager
                  LEVEL 1:
                                                LEVEL 2:                              Bond insurer
                   RMBS                                                  LEVEL 3:
              Silver Marlin Sailfish              CDO                                 Co-issuer
                                                                         CDOXCDO
 KLEROS Preferred                                                                     Rating agencies
                    South Coast Funding IX                                            Swap provider
Maxim High Grade                                                                      Trustee, collateral
                                                                      LEVEL 3:
                                                                                    custodian and
                                                                      CDOXCDO

                                                                                    servicers
 $275M
                            $300M       $190M                                       and paying agent
                                                                  LEVEL 3:
          $250M                                                   CDOXCDO             Underwriter and
                                                                                    placement agent




                                                                                                            20
                                      cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
THE RESULT IS THAT THERE IS A MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING
LOSS OF $1.8TRILLION DOLLAR AGAINST THE EQUITY OF THE
COMMERCIAL BANK



                           SECURITIZED MORTGAGE OUTSTANDING

                3,500
                                                                                                               MORE THAN $3TRILLION ISSUED
                3,000
                                                                                                               LOAN ACCOUNTING: LOSS IN
                2,500
                                                                                                               VALUE BETWEEN
$ B IL L IO N




                                                                                                               10-15%?
                2,000

                1,500                                                                                          MARK-TOMARKET ACCOUNTING:
                                                                                                               LOSS IN VALUE BETWEEN
                1,000
                                                                                                               40-50%
                 500

                   0
                    2004     2005            2006        2007             2008        2009              2010
                                                         YEARS
                           SECURITIZED MTG OUTSTANDING   MARK-TO-MARKET      VALUE OF UNDERLYING MTGS




                                                                                                                                             21
                                                                    cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MANY ACTIONS ARE PROPOSED AND SOME ARE IMPLEMENTED.
BUT THEY DO NOT ADDRESS THE CORE AND THE
OVERWHELMING SIZE OF THE PROBLEM




                                                 22
                cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
OPEN WEB SITE FOR
                    PRESIDENT OBAMA
                   HIS ADMINISTRATION
                 MEMBERS OF CONGRESS
                          AND
                THE AMERICAN TAXPAYERS


•THE US ECONOMY
•THE US TAXPAYER
•ONE OF VERY FEW SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT
CONFIDENCE CRISIS

•IS ETHICAL PROFITABLE CONSUMER BANKING A MYTH?




                     cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR PRESIDENT
WHY NOT TURN A LOSING SITUATION WHERE THE US TAXPAYER
EXPECT THAT HE WILL END UP PAYING FOR THE EXCESSES TO A
SITUATION WHERE HE WILL PARTICIPATE IN THE SOLUTION BOTH AT
THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE POLICY AND AT THE FINANCIAL
IMPACT OF THE RECOVERY
 HISTORICAL LOSS IN US TAXPAYER CONFIDENCE
 SUBSTANCIAL INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL HARDSHIP
   –   LOSSES IN HOME EQUITY VALUE (15%-30%)
   –   LOSSES IN STOCK MARKET VALUE FROM 14,000 TO 8,500
   –   LOSSES IN EMPLOYEMENT INCOME
   –   LOSSES IN NON EMPLOYEMENT INCOME (INTEREST INCOME GOING TO BELOW
       1%)
 RESTORING CONFIDENCE WILL HAVE TO BE DONE THROUGH MORE THAN
  TRADITIONAL STIMULUS PACKAGE AND WITH DETAILED TRANSPARENCY
  AND EXPLANATION, AND HOPEFULLY PARTICIPATION
   –   EXPLAIN WHAT HAPPENED
   –   EXPLAIN WHY IT WILL NOT REOCCUR
   –   TELL THEM THEY WILL PARTICIPATE IN OTHER WAYS THAN SEE THEIR TAX
       MONEY DISAPPEAR




                                                                          24
                        cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR. PRESIDENT:
YOUR ADMINISTRATION IS SUGGESTING A BAD BANK?



 5,000,000 TO 7,000,000 MORTGAGE CUSTOMERS ($1,500t/$300,000)
  THAT ARE NOT GOING TO BE HAPPY TO BE CONSIDERED PART OF A
  “BAD BANK”.
   – BEING OWNED OR PART OF A “BAD” SECURITY, DOES IN NO WAY MEAN
     YOU ARE PART OF “BAD SUBPRIME LOANS”.
 IN THE MEAN TIME THEIR MORTGAGE MONTHLY PAYMENT STILL
  PAY FOR THE SERVISERS, THE TRUSTEES, THE LAWYERS, THE
  ACCOUNTANTS…..
 WALL STREET MUST BE SALIVATING. $1,500BILLION IN IDENTIFIED
  ASSETS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE RECYCLED THROUGH THEM. A
  MAJOR IMPACT ON THEIR COMPENSATION AND BONUS.




                                                                25
                     cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR PRESIDENT
EMPOWER THE TAXPAYERS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE SOLUTION
TO A PROBLEM THEY DID NOT CREATE

 YOU WOULD ADDRESS A NUMBER OF ISSUES
   – ADDRESS THE CONFIDENCE GAP
   – ADRESS THE TOXIC ASSETS
   – PUT TO REST THE ACCOUNTING DEBATE ABOUT MARK-TO-MARKET
     ACCOUNTING
   – PROVIDE A MULTI YEAR STIMULUS PACKAGE IN ADDITION TO THE
     CURRENT ADMINISTRATION STIMULUS PACKAGE
   – PROVIDE TOTAL TRANSPARENCY IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS
 THEY WOULD FINANCIALY PARTICIPATE IN THE “RESCUE” OF
  THEIR ECONOMY AND OF THEIR “FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS”
 THEY WOULD DEPOSIT $500BILLION TO $1,000BILLION IN THE
  “BAD BANK” DIRECTLY, TO INVEST IN “TOXIC ASSETS”
   – EARNING 6 TO 8% INTEREST
   – GETTING THE RECOVERY IN PRICES
   – BENEFITING FROM THE RECOVERY THAT THEY WILL CREATE
 IT ,OBVIOUSLY, WOULD BE ON A VOLUNTARY BASIS
                                                                26
                   cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR. PRESIDENT:
YOUR ADMINISTRATION COULD HAVE A FAIR WAY TO RESOLVE THE
CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISIS WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE TAXPAYERS

 THE GOVERNMENT COULD SPONSOR ONE OR MORE SINGLE
  PURPOSE TAXPAYERS FINANCED AND OWNED BANK (CREDIT
  UNION)
 THE GOVERNEMENT COULD FOR THESE SINGLE PURPOSE BANKS:
   – ALLOW TO TRANSITION FROM MART-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING TO LOAN
     ACCOUNTING
 WITH VERY STRINGENT CONDITIONS
   – OWNERSHIP OF BANK HAS TO BE WITH U.S. TAXPAYERS WITH A
     MAXIMUM LEVEL ($50,000)
 A CONDITION FOR THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE TRANSFER OF THE
  “TOXIC ASSETS” WOULD BE
   – ALL LEGACY STRUCTURE OF WALL STREET (TRUSTEE, LAWYERS, ..)
     WILL BE NULLED AND VOID
 ALL FINANCIAL BENEFIT (INTEREST, LOAN VALUE RECOVERY..) WILL
  BE PASSED THROUGH IN TOTALITY TO THE US
  TAXPAYERS/OWNERS


                                                                  27
                     cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
THE MULTILAYERED SECURITISATION WILL BE CANCELLED AND
MORTGAGES WOULD BE RECATEGORIZED AS LOAN AND ACCOUNTED
FOR ON THE BASIS OF LOAN ACCOUNTING

         COMMERCIAL
           BANKS
                                                                  LEVEL 3:
                                                                  CDOXCDO

                                                                                      Asset manager
                  LEVEL 1:
                                                LEVEL 2:                              Bond insurer
                   RMBS                                                  LEVEL 3:
              Silver Marlin Sailfish              CDO                                 Co-issuer
                                                                         CDOXCDO
 KLEROS Preferred                                                                     Rating agencies
                    South Coast Funding IX                                            Swap provider
Maxim High Grade                                                                      Trustee, collateral
                                                                      LEVEL 3:
                                                                                    custodian and
                                                                      CDOXCDO

                                                                                    servicers
 $275M
                            $300M       $190M                                       and paying agent
                                                                  LEVEL 3:
          $250M                                                   CDOXCDO             Underwriter and
                                                                                    placement agent




                                                                                                            28
                                      cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
BANKS/INSTITUTIONS THAT NEED GOVERNMENT/TAXPAYER
BAIL OUT WOULD BRING THE “UNDERLYING ASSETS” BUT
WITHOUT THE TOXIC ENVELOPE

   COMMERCIAL BANKS
                                                               “TOXIC MORTGAGE BANK”
                                                               ASSETS
                                                                  $500B TO $1,000B IN “TOXIC
                  Silver Marlin Sailfish
                                                                     ASSETS”
   Kleros Preferred
                                                                       •   TOTAL PASS THROUGH
                                                                           OF INTEREST
                                                                       •   TOTAL PASS THROUGH
                  South Coast Funding IX
                                                                           OF PRINCIPAL
             Maxim High Grade                                              REPAYMENT
                                                               LIABILITIES
                                                                  –   US TAXPAYERS DEPOSIT
                                                                       •   FDIC INSURED
                                                                       •   TAX FREE INTEREST(?)




                                                                                                  29
                                  cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR. PRESIDENT:
IN YOUR CAMPAIGN YOU MENTIONED JOB CREATION.




 $1,500BILLION ASSETS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. IT WILL END
  UP COSTING 1 OR 2% OF ASSETS A YEAR $15 TO $30BILLION PER
  YEAR.
 WORKING WITH MAIN STREET WILL CREATE 300,000 JOBS
  ($30B/$100,000)




                                                            30
                    cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
MR PRESIDENT:
IF THIS ACTION (FOR US ASSETS BASED SECURITIES) WERE
EXTENDED TO THE ASSETS HELD OVERSEAS IT WOULD
GREATLY IMPROVE US STATUS OVERSEAS



     UBS AG investment bank             $18.700
     Crédit Agricole bank               $ 4.800
                                                        •THIS ACTION COULD ALSO BE
     HSBC bank                          $ 3.400
                                                        EXTENDED TO SECURITIES
     Deutsche Bank investment bank      $ 3.100
                                                        CURRENTLY OVERSEAS.
     Credit Suisse bank                 $ 3.080
                                                        •IN THIS WAY IT COULD ALSO
     BayernLB bank                      $ 2.800
                                                        CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZING THE
     Barclays Capital investment bank   $ 2.700
     RBS bank                           $ 2.600        INTERNATIONAL BANKING
     Natixis bank                       $ 1.750        SYSTEMS.
     Commerzbank bank                   $ 1.100
     Swiss Re re-insurance              $ 1.070
     BNP Paribas bank                   $ 0.870




                                                                                    31
                                  cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu

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President Obama

  • 1. OPEN WEB SITE FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA FI CR SU NA IS HIS ADMINISTRATION NC IS BPR MEMBERS OF CONGRESS IA L IME AND S THE AMERICAN MO IS IS TAXPAYERS CR RTG IC OM N CO AG E ES TOXIC ASSETS •THE US TAXPAYER AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS •THE US TAXPAYER AND GOVERNMENT •ONE OF VERY FEW SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT CONFIDENCE CRISIS •IS ETHICAL PROFITABLE CONSUMER BANKING A MYTH? 1 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 2. EMAIL LIST  PRESIDENT OBAMA FEBRUARY 5, 2009  US ADMINISTRATION FEBRUARY 7, 2009  MEMBER OF CONGRESS FEBRUARY 9, 2009  US TAXPAYERS MID FEBRUARY CAVEAT  THE AUTHOR(S) OF THIS SITE AND OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ARE INDIVIDUAL US TAXPAYERS.  ALL THE INFORMATION AND DATA COMES FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE SOURCES, MAINLY IF NOT ALWAYS, FROM THE INTERNET  THE AUTHOR MAY HAVE MADE NUMERICAL ERRORS IN THIS DOCUMENT, BUT BELIEVES THAT THEY WOULD HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON THE ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION. 2 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 3.  “We start 2009 in the midst of a crisis unlike any we have seen in our lifetime, a crisis that has only deepened over the last few weeks. Nearly 2 million jobs have been now lost. And on Friday, we're likely to learn that we lost more jobs last year than at any time since World War II. Just in the past year, another 2.8 million Americans who want and need full–time work have had to settle for part–time jobs.“ 3 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 4. NEVER SO FEW HAVE DONE SO MUCH DAMAGE TO THE WORLD FINANCIAL MARKETS AND THEIR ECONOMY FEW NEVER SO 4 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 5. MR. PRESIDENT  WE TAXPAYERS HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE – WITH OUT IT, IT IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO RESUME NORMAL ECONOMIC LIFE  WE ORIGINALLY HAD LOST CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS  THEN,WE HAD LOST CONFIDENCE AS A RESULT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS  BUT AT THIS STAGE WE HAVE LOST CONFIDENCE BECAUSE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A VIABLE UNDERSTANDABLE SOLUTION 5 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 6. MR PRESIDENT AS YOU WELL KNOW:  THE US TAXPAYERS – DECLARES $8.0TRILLION IN AGI DOMESTIC DEPOSITS – HAS OVER $40TRILLION IN ASSETS  $ 7.5TRILLION IN SHORT TERM $9.0 ASSETS $8.0 A.G.I. • $15.5TRILLION IN SECURITIES $7.0  HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SOPHISTICATED FINANCIALY OVER $6.0 THE PAST DECADE. $5.0  WHILE WE MAY NOT UNDERSTAND (WHO DOES) ALL THE REASONS FOR $4.0 DEPOSITS THE CURRENT CRISIS, WE ARE STILL $3.0 ABLE TO GRASP THE FOLLOWING FACTS: $2.0 – THAT FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES $1.0 (WALL STREET) HAVE AGAIN ABUSED THEIR FRANCHISES $0.0 – THAT IT HAS AN UNBEARABLE 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 FINANCIAL IMPACT ON OUR DAILY LIVES AND THE FUTURE OF OUR DOMESTIC DEPOSITS A.G.I. ECONOMY 6 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 7. MR PRESIDENT THE US TAXPAYERS, SINCE THE EARLY 90’S, HAVE BEEN “GOOD CITIZENS”. AS A RESULT, WE INCREASED OUR HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY 16 MILLIONS SINCE 1990., REACHING OVER 110 MILLIONS.  “GOOD CITIZENS” US HOUSEHOLDS – WE HAVE LEVERAGED THE NEW TECHNOLOGIES TO CREATE NEW 120 BUSINESS SECTORS CREATING MILLIONS OF JOBS – WE HAVE DEDICATED OURSELVES TO HARD WORK 110 – WE HAVE PAID SUBSTANCIAL TAXES – WE HAVE SAVED (JUST THROUGH BANK DEPOSITS) $3.3TRILLION DOLLARS FROM 1995 TO 2007 100  AND AS A RESULTS WE WANTED – TO MOVE UP IN HOMES OR TO BUY OUR FIRST HOME 90 – TO PURCHASE A NEW CAR – TO GET NEW WHITE GOODS 80  AND WE EXPECTEDED THE FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES AND THE US 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 GOVERNEMENT TO DO THEIR JOB US HOUSHOLDS 7 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 8. MR PRESIDENT DESPITE OUR DEPOSIT OF MORE THAN $7.0TRILLION (60% FDIC INSURED),THIS HISTORICALY HIGH DEMAND FOR HOME FINANCING OF MORTGAGES WAS ONLY PARTIALY FINANCED, AS HISTORICALY, FROM THE BALANCE SHEET OF THE TRADITIONAL BANKING SYSTEM HOUSEHOLDS COMMERCIAL BANKS DEPOSITS HOME OWNERSHIP (FDIC) HOME OWNERSHIP 7,000,000,000 70.00% 6,000,000,000 69.00% 5,000,000,000 68.00% 4,000,000,000 67.00% 3,000,000,000 66.00% 2,000,000,000 65.00% 1,000,000,000 64.00% 63.00% 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 HOME OWNERSHIP 1-4 FAMILY RESIDENTIAL NET LOANS AND LEASES 8 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 9. BUT A VERY LARGE AMOUNT ($2.0 TO $3.5TRILLION) WERE FINANCED WITH EXOTIC FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT THAT ORIGINATED MUCH MORE FEE INCOME FOR THE COMMERCIAL BANKS U.S. Mortgage Market OUTSTANDING MORTGAGES  THE BANKS GROUPED (Dolla inM rs illions) SECURITIZED A LARGE PART OF Total N on- Total Residential Total M Sas B THEM (ABS, RMBS,..) Year GA NM FHLM C FN A M Agency A gency MS B Mortgages %of R M esi tg 1980 93,874 16,962 110,836 110,836 962,2 59 11.5  THE MAIN PURPOSE FOR A BANK 1981 105,790 19,897 717 126,404 126,404 1,034,8 57 12.2 1982 118,940 42,952 14,450 176,342 176,342 1,074,9 95 16.4 TO GO THROUGH THESE 1983 159,981 57,720 25,121 242,822 242,822 1,191,6 48 20.4 EXPENSIVE STEPS 1984 179,981 70,025 36,215 286,221 11,000 286,221 1,326,0 92 21.6 1985 212,145 99,908 54,987 367,040 24,016 367,040 1,523,5 90 24.1 (SECURITIZATION) IS TO BE ABLE 1986 262,698 169,186 95,778 527,662 16,617 527,662 1,726,4 60 30.6 1987 TO TRANSFER THE UNDER LYING 315,832 205,992 137,330 659,154 27,800 686,954 1,924,2 18 35.7 1988 340,527 219,701 172,259 732,487 34,865 767,352 2,157,7 49 35.6 LOAN TO A NEW PARTY, USUALLY 1989 369,687 266,060 219,577 855,324 43,325 898,649 2,382,9 54 37.7 1990 401,278 308,369 291,194 1,000,841 55,193 1,054,176 2,619,0 09 40.3 A NONE BANK ENTITY, OUT OF 1991 425,241 351,906 362,667 1,139,814 98,183 1,223,814 2,787,1 86 43.9 YOUR OWN BALANCE SHEET SO 1992 419,516 401,525 435,979 1,257,020 146,146 1,389,020 2,955,0 12 47.0 1993 414,066 434,499 486,804 1,335,369 174,571 1,519,069 3,116,5 00 48.7 THAT YOU FREE UP FUNDS TO DO 1994 450,934 460,656 530,343 1,441,933 192,637 1,647,933 3,296,2 49 50.0 NEW LOANS. 1995 472,283 512,238 569,724 1,554,245 206,487 1,778,545 3,467,2 57 51.3 1996 506,340 551,513 633,210 1,691,063 232,206 1,947,263 3,695,1 59 52.7  BUT THE COMMERCIAL BANKS 1997 536,810 576,846 687,981 1,801,637 276,930 2,112,337 3,935,9 95 53.7 1998 537,431 640,471 804,205 1,982,107 355,470 2,390,251 4,294,7 68 55.7 KEPT (31/2/2007) $1,0TRILLION OF 1999 582,263 740,157 924,941 2,247,361 394,559 2,706,828 4,716,5 58 57.4 2000 611,553 810,894 1,016 ,398 2,438,845 426,265 2,865,110 5,126,3 12 55.9 THESE SECURITIES ON THEIR 2001 591,368 940,933 1,238 ,125 2,770,426 496,101 3,266,527 5,635,7 91 58.0 BALANCE SHEET. 2002 537,888 1,072,990 1,478 ,610 3,089,488 551,806 3,641,294 6,309,6 23 57.7 2003 1,156,188 473,738 1,851 ,728 3,481,654 683,231 4,164,885 7,105,0 53 58.6 2004 1,199,290 1,984,21 7 4,696,746 441,345 3,624,852 1,071,894 8,071,0 89 58.2 20 3 411,870 05-Q 1,284,393 2,226,00 0 5,332,263 3,922,263 1,410,000 8,784,3 00 60.7 Source: Insid M &AB e BS S Estim tesinitalics a 9 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 10. MR PRESIDENT THE BANKS TOOK THE RISK OF RECATEGORIZING RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES ON THEIR BALANCE SHEET FROM LOANS TO SECURITIES FOR INCREASE FEES  AS A RESULT THESE RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES CHANGED IN ACCOUNTING RULES FROM LOAN ACCOUNTING TO SECURITIES ACCOUNTING (MEANING MARK-TO-MARKET)  TO COMPOUND THIS, THEY INVESTED ON THEIR BALANCE SHEET $1.1TRILLION 60% OF THEIR EQUITY BASE IN MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES ($970BILLION).  NO INVESTMENT FIRM OR INVESTOR WOULD COMMIT 60% OF HIS NET WORTH TO A SINGLE INDUSTRY  WHY? THE MAIN REASON I CAN THINK OF IS THAT IT GENERATED ENORMOUS FEE INCOME (FOR THEM AS FOR WALL STREET). THIS INCREASED FEE INCOME PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED SUBSTANCIALLY TO THEIR COMPENSATION PACKAGE. 10 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 11. Enhancement Reflects Collateral Differences Collateral “Six-Pack” Deal Deal with XS / OC  In Non-Agency MBS, credit enhancement structures come mainly in two flavors Deal Collateral Face Value - AAAs Total Principal Payments “Six-pack” structures where AAAs several locked-out subs provide credit enhancement. Mainly used on Jumbos and AA “M1” Alt-As Credit Enhancement A “M2” Classic “Six Pack” Excess-spread / Over- AA “M1” Excess-Spread O/C-based collateralization structures, BBB “M3” Credit Enhancement where locked-out subs are BB “B1” A “M2” complemented by excess interest from the collateral to B “B2” cover losses. Mainly used in BBB “M3” N.R. “B3” Subprime, High-LTV, Scratch & Dent, sometimes XS – OC Payments IO Interest Alt-A Residual Interest on Interest on the bonds the bonds 11 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 12. BUT  LIKE ANY AND MANY ECONOMIC CYCLES, ON THE PART OF THE US TAXPAYERS THERE WERE SOME EXCESSES.  SOME TAXPAYERS OVEREXTENDED THEMSELVES  SOME TAXPAYERS RAN THEIR CREDITCARD BALANCE  SOME OVERPAID FOR THEIR HOMES… • IT SHOULD HAVE RESULTED IN A CORRECTION, BUT NOT IN A WORLD FINANCIAL CRISIS 12 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 13. OPEN WEB SITE FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA HIS ADMINISTRATION MEMBERS OF CONGRESS AND THE AMERICAN TAXPAYERS •THE US TAXPAYER AND THE FINANCIAL CRISIS •THE US TAXPAYER AND THE GOVERNMENT •ONE OF VERY FEW SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT CRISIS •FINANCIAL CRISIS •CONFIDENCE CRISIS •IS ETHICAL PROFITABLE CONSUMER BANKING A MYTH? cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 14. IN 2008, THE US TAXPAYERS CONTRIBUTES $1.1TRILLION OUT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS OF $2.5TRILLION 14 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 15. WHEN CALCULATED AS A PERCENTAGE OF INCOME TAX RECEIPTS, THE FEDERAL DEBT IS NOT OVERWHELMING. INCOME TAX RECEIPTS AS PERCENT OF GDP 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 INCOME TAX AS % GDP DEBT SHOULD NOT BE CALCULATED NOT AS % OF GDP (REVENUES IN CORPORATE WORLD), BUT AS % OF INCOME TAXES (EQUIVALENT TO NET INCOME IN THE CORPORATE WORLD) 15 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 16. MR. PRESIDENT  THE US TAXPAYER IS PROVIDING THE CASH FLOW FOR THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO BE ABLE TO BORROW $10,000BILLION IN FEDERAL DEBT – $76,000 PER TAXPAYER  THE US TAXPAYER IS THE ULTIMATE PAYER FOR THE $452BILLION IN YEARLY INTEREST COST – $3,476 PER TAXPAYER 16 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 17. THE S&L CRISIS COST BETWEEN $50-100BILLION FOR THE TAXPAYERS, THE CURRENT CRISIS MAY COST $400-800BILLION IF THE GOVERNMENT RELIES ON THE SAME OR SIMILAR ACTIONS  The thrift cleanup was Congress's response to the greatest collapse of U.S. financial institutions since the 1930s. – From 1986 to 1989, the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC), the insurer of the thrift industry, closed or otherwise resolved 296 institutions with total assets of $125 billion (table 1).3 – An even more traumatic period followed, with the creation of the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) in 1989 and that agency's resolution by mid-1995 of an additional 747 thrifts with total assets of $394 billion. – The combined closings by both agencies of 1,043 institutions holding $519 billion in assets contributed to a massive restructuring of the number of firms in the industry. From January 1, 1986, through year-end 1995, the number of federally insured thrift institutions in the United States declined from 3,234 to 1,645, or by approximately 50 percent AND, LET US MAKE NO MISTAKE, THE SAME MINORITY WILL BE THE ONE WHO WILL REAP MOST IF NOT ALL THE $400-800BILLION, LIKE LAST TIME 17 -http://www.allbusiness.com/business-finance/business-insurance/977722-1.html cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 18. MR PRESIDENT PLEASE DO NOT LET YOUR ADMINISTRATION ELIMINATE MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING  AS THIS CRISIS SHOWS, IT PROTECTS US TAXPAYERS AND MAIN STREET  IT WOULD NOT HAVE CHANGED ANY OF THE FINANCIAL DEALS (MORTGAGE SECURITISATION) DONE BY WALL STREET IN THE PAST FEW YEARS  IT WOULD NOT HAVE IMPACTED THE EXCESSES IN COMPENSATION AS THE LAST $18.3BILLION SHOWS 18 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 19. THE TRADITIONAL MORTGAGE LOAN PROCESS COMMERCIALBANK All real estate loans 3,863,973,479 8 Real estate loans in domestic offices: 3,794,965,620 9 Construction and land development 554,447,534 10 Commercial real estate 935,093,951 11 Multifamily residential real estate 149,177,231 12 1-4 family residential 2,094,503,559 13 Farmland 61,743,345 COMMERCIAL BANKS 19 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 20. WALL STREET BONUS FOG. EACH LEVEL OF COMPLEXITY GENERATED (AND STILL GENERATE) SUBSTANCIAL FEES AROUND 2-3% OF SECURITY VALUE. FOR THE BENEFIT THE MORTGAGE HOLDER? COMMERCIAL BANKS LEVEL 3: CDOXCDO Asset manager LEVEL 1: LEVEL 2: Bond insurer RMBS LEVEL 3: Silver Marlin Sailfish CDO Co-issuer CDOXCDO KLEROS Preferred Rating agencies South Coast Funding IX Swap provider Maxim High Grade Trustee, collateral LEVEL 3: custodian and CDOXCDO servicers $275M $300M $190M and paying agent LEVEL 3: $250M CDOXCDO Underwriter and placement agent 20 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 21. THE RESULT IS THAT THERE IS A MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING LOSS OF $1.8TRILLION DOLLAR AGAINST THE EQUITY OF THE COMMERCIAL BANK SECURITIZED MORTGAGE OUTSTANDING 3,500 MORE THAN $3TRILLION ISSUED 3,000 LOAN ACCOUNTING: LOSS IN 2,500 VALUE BETWEEN $ B IL L IO N 10-15%? 2,000 1,500 MARK-TOMARKET ACCOUNTING: LOSS IN VALUE BETWEEN 1,000 40-50% 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 YEARS SECURITIZED MTG OUTSTANDING MARK-TO-MARKET VALUE OF UNDERLYING MTGS 21 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 22. MANY ACTIONS ARE PROPOSED AND SOME ARE IMPLEMENTED. BUT THEY DO NOT ADDRESS THE CORE AND THE OVERWHELMING SIZE OF THE PROBLEM 22 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 23. OPEN WEB SITE FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA HIS ADMINISTRATION MEMBERS OF CONGRESS AND THE AMERICAN TAXPAYERS •THE US ECONOMY •THE US TAXPAYER •ONE OF VERY FEW SOLUTIONS TO THE CURRENT CONFIDENCE CRISIS •IS ETHICAL PROFITABLE CONSUMER BANKING A MYTH? cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 24. MR PRESIDENT WHY NOT TURN A LOSING SITUATION WHERE THE US TAXPAYER EXPECT THAT HE WILL END UP PAYING FOR THE EXCESSES TO A SITUATION WHERE HE WILL PARTICIPATE IN THE SOLUTION BOTH AT THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE POLICY AND AT THE FINANCIAL IMPACT OF THE RECOVERY  HISTORICAL LOSS IN US TAXPAYER CONFIDENCE  SUBSTANCIAL INDIVIDUAL FINANCIAL HARDSHIP – LOSSES IN HOME EQUITY VALUE (15%-30%) – LOSSES IN STOCK MARKET VALUE FROM 14,000 TO 8,500 – LOSSES IN EMPLOYEMENT INCOME – LOSSES IN NON EMPLOYEMENT INCOME (INTEREST INCOME GOING TO BELOW 1%)  RESTORING CONFIDENCE WILL HAVE TO BE DONE THROUGH MORE THAN TRADITIONAL STIMULUS PACKAGE AND WITH DETAILED TRANSPARENCY AND EXPLANATION, AND HOPEFULLY PARTICIPATION – EXPLAIN WHAT HAPPENED – EXPLAIN WHY IT WILL NOT REOCCUR – TELL THEM THEY WILL PARTICIPATE IN OTHER WAYS THAN SEE THEIR TAX MONEY DISAPPEAR 24 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 25. MR. PRESIDENT: YOUR ADMINISTRATION IS SUGGESTING A BAD BANK?  5,000,000 TO 7,000,000 MORTGAGE CUSTOMERS ($1,500t/$300,000) THAT ARE NOT GOING TO BE HAPPY TO BE CONSIDERED PART OF A “BAD BANK”. – BEING OWNED OR PART OF A “BAD” SECURITY, DOES IN NO WAY MEAN YOU ARE PART OF “BAD SUBPRIME LOANS”.  IN THE MEAN TIME THEIR MORTGAGE MONTHLY PAYMENT STILL PAY FOR THE SERVISERS, THE TRUSTEES, THE LAWYERS, THE ACCOUNTANTS…..  WALL STREET MUST BE SALIVATING. $1,500BILLION IN IDENTIFIED ASSETS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE RECYCLED THROUGH THEM. A MAJOR IMPACT ON THEIR COMPENSATION AND BONUS. 25 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 26. MR PRESIDENT EMPOWER THE TAXPAYERS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE SOLUTION TO A PROBLEM THEY DID NOT CREATE  YOU WOULD ADDRESS A NUMBER OF ISSUES – ADDRESS THE CONFIDENCE GAP – ADRESS THE TOXIC ASSETS – PUT TO REST THE ACCOUNTING DEBATE ABOUT MARK-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING – PROVIDE A MULTI YEAR STIMULUS PACKAGE IN ADDITION TO THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION STIMULUS PACKAGE – PROVIDE TOTAL TRANSPARENCY IN THE FINANCIAL CRISIS  THEY WOULD FINANCIALY PARTICIPATE IN THE “RESCUE” OF THEIR ECONOMY AND OF THEIR “FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS”  THEY WOULD DEPOSIT $500BILLION TO $1,000BILLION IN THE “BAD BANK” DIRECTLY, TO INVEST IN “TOXIC ASSETS” – EARNING 6 TO 8% INTEREST – GETTING THE RECOVERY IN PRICES – BENEFITING FROM THE RECOVERY THAT THEY WILL CREATE  IT ,OBVIOUSLY, WOULD BE ON A VOLUNTARY BASIS 26 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 27. MR. PRESIDENT: YOUR ADMINISTRATION COULD HAVE A FAIR WAY TO RESOLVE THE CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISIS WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE TAXPAYERS  THE GOVERNMENT COULD SPONSOR ONE OR MORE SINGLE PURPOSE TAXPAYERS FINANCED AND OWNED BANK (CREDIT UNION)  THE GOVERNEMENT COULD FOR THESE SINGLE PURPOSE BANKS: – ALLOW TO TRANSITION FROM MART-TO-MARKET ACCOUNTING TO LOAN ACCOUNTING  WITH VERY STRINGENT CONDITIONS – OWNERSHIP OF BANK HAS TO BE WITH U.S. TAXPAYERS WITH A MAXIMUM LEVEL ($50,000)  A CONDITION FOR THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE TRANSFER OF THE “TOXIC ASSETS” WOULD BE – ALL LEGACY STRUCTURE OF WALL STREET (TRUSTEE, LAWYERS, ..) WILL BE NULLED AND VOID  ALL FINANCIAL BENEFIT (INTEREST, LOAN VALUE RECOVERY..) WILL BE PASSED THROUGH IN TOTALITY TO THE US TAXPAYERS/OWNERS 27 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 28. THE MULTILAYERED SECURITISATION WILL BE CANCELLED AND MORTGAGES WOULD BE RECATEGORIZED AS LOAN AND ACCOUNTED FOR ON THE BASIS OF LOAN ACCOUNTING COMMERCIAL BANKS LEVEL 3: CDOXCDO Asset manager LEVEL 1: LEVEL 2: Bond insurer RMBS LEVEL 3: Silver Marlin Sailfish CDO Co-issuer CDOXCDO KLEROS Preferred Rating agencies South Coast Funding IX Swap provider Maxim High Grade Trustee, collateral LEVEL 3: custodian and CDOXCDO servicers $275M $300M $190M and paying agent LEVEL 3: $250M CDOXCDO Underwriter and placement agent 28 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 29. BANKS/INSTITUTIONS THAT NEED GOVERNMENT/TAXPAYER BAIL OUT WOULD BRING THE “UNDERLYING ASSETS” BUT WITHOUT THE TOXIC ENVELOPE COMMERCIAL BANKS “TOXIC MORTGAGE BANK”  ASSETS $500B TO $1,000B IN “TOXIC Silver Marlin Sailfish ASSETS” Kleros Preferred • TOTAL PASS THROUGH OF INTEREST • TOTAL PASS THROUGH South Coast Funding IX OF PRINCIPAL Maxim High Grade REPAYMENT  LIABILITIES – US TAXPAYERS DEPOSIT • FDIC INSURED • TAX FREE INTEREST(?) 29 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 30. MR. PRESIDENT: IN YOUR CAMPAIGN YOU MENTIONED JOB CREATION.  $1,500BILLION ASSETS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT. IT WILL END UP COSTING 1 OR 2% OF ASSETS A YEAR $15 TO $30BILLION PER YEAR.  WORKING WITH MAIN STREET WILL CREATE 300,000 JOBS ($30B/$100,000) 30 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu
  • 31. MR PRESIDENT: IF THIS ACTION (FOR US ASSETS BASED SECURITIES) WERE EXTENDED TO THE ASSETS HELD OVERSEAS IT WOULD GREATLY IMPROVE US STATUS OVERSEAS  UBS AG investment bank $18.700  Crédit Agricole bank $ 4.800 •THIS ACTION COULD ALSO BE  HSBC bank $ 3.400 EXTENDED TO SECURITIES  Deutsche Bank investment bank $ 3.100 CURRENTLY OVERSEAS.  Credit Suisse bank $ 3.080 •IN THIS WAY IT COULD ALSO  BayernLB bank $ 2.800 CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZING THE  Barclays Capital investment bank $ 2.700  RBS bank $ 2.600 INTERNATIONAL BANKING  Natixis bank $ 1.750 SYSTEMS.  Commerzbank bank $ 1.100  Swiss Re re-insurance $ 1.070  BNP Paribas bank $ 0.870 31 cdecarbonnel@alum.mit.edu