"Description:
Global hiking price of oil, as well as alarming energy crisis, push rapid development of renewable energies around the world, with solar energy an outstanding one. Driven by global booming solar energy, China’s solar cell production has developed rapidly in past three years, with output CAGR of 144% from 2007 to 2009. However, domestic supply of polysilicon, key raw material of solar cell, has heavily depended on import (78.46% in 2008), due to high cost and small output caused by immature technology.
Strong demand for solar cell and high profit rate attract increasing enterprises to engage in polysilicon production in China after 2007. Polysilicon output for 2009 is estimated to reach 12,500 tonnes and the supply in 2010 is expected to meet the demand with new capacity release. What’s the influence of this change will be exerted on China’s status in global solar PV industry? Will China’s soaring polysilicon output influence price or profit of international polysilicon manufacturers, such as MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. and Huku Material Inc. What change will arise for China’s main polysilicon suppliers?
As overseas experiences demonstrate, sustainable development of polysilicon relies on solar PV advance, and the latter’s growth is greatly driven by governmental policy on feed-in tariff, thus a fresh focus comes to following outlook: what is China’s attitude towards feed-in tariff? Will China’s PV market still depend on overseas’ and how is the growing momentum in the following years?
Moreover, owing to lack of national long-term plan for polysilicon development, China’s polysilicon industry is facing many problems, such as overcapacity, lack of core production technology and ineffective technology in tail gas treatment, all of which have severely dragged sustainable development of polysilicon. With great technology breakthroughs in recent two years, what’s the potential change in the future?
This report will unveil penetration of above focuses, and to further explore these intelligences, key aspects will be presented as follows:
What are reasons for rapid development of polysilicon industry?
What are main problems in polysilicon industry?
What is influence of latest policies on future polysilicon development?
How does competitive landscape of different solar cells present?
How does interaction between polysilicon and solar PV industry function?
What are opportunities from future polysilicon industry?
What are profiles of major polysilicon producers and end users together with discussion on their key business strategies?
"
ICT Role in 21st Century Education & its Challenges.pptx
China's Polysilicon Market in Solar Photovoltaic Industry
1. CCMData & Primary Intelligence
Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com
Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
China's Polysilicon Market in Solar
Photovoltaic Industry
- The First Edition
November 2009
Researched & Prepared by:
Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd .
Guangzhou, P. R. China
Copyright by Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (P. R. China)
Any publication, distribution or copying of the content in this report is prohibited.
Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com
Tel: +86-20-38768926
Fax: +86-20-38768956
Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com
2. CCMData & Primary Intelligence
Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com
Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
Description:
Global hiking price of oil, as well as alarming energy crisis, push rapid development of renewable
energies around the world, with solar energy an outstanding one. Driven by global booming solar
energy, China’s solar cell production has developed rapidly in past three years, with output CAGR
of 144% from 2007 to 2009. However, domestic supply of polysilicon, key raw material of solar cell,
has heavily depended on import (78.46% in 2008), due to high cost and small output caused by
immature technology.
Strong demand for solar cell and high profit rate attract increasing enterprises to engage in
polysilicon production in China after 2007. Polysilicon output for 2009 is estimated to reach 12,500
tonnes and the supply in 2010 is expected to meet the demand with new capacity release. What’s
the influence of this change will be exerted on China’s status in global solar PV industry? Will
China’s soaring polysilicon output influence price or profit of international polysilicon
manufacturers, such as MEMC Electronic Materials Inc. and Huku Material Inc. What change will
arise for China’s main polysilicon suppliers?
As overseas experiences demonstrate, sustainable development of polysilicon relies on solar PV
advance, and the latter’s growth is greatly driven by governmental policy on feed-in tariff, thus a
fresh focus comes to following outlook: what is China’s attitude towards feed-in tariff? Will China’s
PV market still depend on overseas’ and how is the growing momentum in the following years?
Moreover, owing to lack of national long-term plan for polysilicon development, China’s polysilicon
industry is facing many problems, such as overcapacity, lack of core production technology and
ineffective technology in tail gas treatment, all of which have severely dragged sustainable
development of polysilicon. With great technology breakthroughs in recent two years, what’s the
potential change in the future?
This report will unveil penetration of above focuses, and to further explore these intelligences, key
aspects will be presented as follows:
What are reasons for rapid development of polysilicon industry?
What are main problems in polysilicon industry?
What is influence of latest policies on future polysilicon development?
How does competitive landscape of different solar cells present?
How does interaction between polysilicon and solar PV industry function?
What are opportunities from future polysilicon industry?
What are profiles of major polysilicon producers and end users together with discussion on their
key business strategies?
3. CCMData & Primary Intelligence
Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com
Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
Main content:
No. Content Page
Executive summary 1
Introduction and methodology 3
I Overview of polysilicon industry in China 5
II Soaring capacity and existent problems 8
II-1 Capacity and output 8
II-2 Key producers 11
II-3 Resources for polysilicon production 14
II-4 Main problems in polysilicon industry 16
III Influencing factors from government 18
IV Trade analysis on polysilicon 21
V Competition among polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline 23
V-1 Polysilicon consumption situation 23
V-2 Competition from monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon 25
VI Market outlook of solar PV industry/Renewable energy industry 26
VI-1 Forecast on polysilicon production to 2013 26
VI-2 Position change of China’s solar PV 28
VII Market outlook of polysilicon in China’s solar PV industry 29
VII-1 Interaction between polysilicon and solar PV 29
VII-2 Outlook of polysilicon application in solar PV industry 31
VII-2-1 Development of China’s solar cell industry 31
VII-2-2 Consumption of polysilicon 35
VIII Competition and opportunity 36
IX Profile 37
IX-1 Key producers 37
IX-1.1 Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon Technology Development Co., Ltd. 37
… … 0
IX-1.13 Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd. 49
IX-2 Key end users 51
IX-2.1 Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. 51
… … 0
IX-2.7 Canadian Solar Inc. 55
4. CCMData & Primary Intelligence
Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com
Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
Executive summary:
Production
Promoted by some key driven factors, China’s polysilicon industry witnessed capacity explosion in
past three years. By the end of Oct. 2009, China’s polysilicon capacity has reached ****t/a, with
output of **** tonnes in 2008.
Rising polysilicon industry is changing China’s status in the world, and will generate profound
impacts on world’s polysilicon industry in the coming years. However, many problems, such as
overcapacity, immature technology and tail gas treatement problem, have to be solved in the
following years to ensure the sound and orderly development of China’s polysilicon industry.
Government policies
Chinese government’s attitude, in the long run, towards polysilicon development is supportive,
though it approved some proposals to curb excessive capacity and redundant construction on
September 30, 2009.
Trade analysis
In the past, China’s polysilicon consumption has been depending on import, and little was
exported due to small output. However, with rising of domestic polysilicon supply, dependence on
import will decline significantly in the next years.
Consumption
China’s supply still can’t match its demand now, promoted by rapid development of solar cell
industry in 2009. However, China’s polysilicon capacity has soared in recent two years because of
government’s support policies and the fat profits of this industry, which have led to overcapacity in
2009.
Competition from monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon
CCM estimates that polysilicon will still take dominant market share in the following years in PV
market. Despite advantages in low product cost and low wastes, value of conversion rate/product
cost of non-crystalline silicon solar cell still can’t catch up with that of polysilicon solar cell. Once
price of polysilicon decreases to reasonable level and global economy recovers, which is
happening now, development of non-crystalline silicon solar will become slow.
5. CCMData & Primary Intelligence
Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com
Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
Outlook of solar energy industry and renewable energy industry
With polysilicon’s increasing capacity and output, lower cost, higher conversion rate of solar cell,
the status of solar PV will gain great improvement in renewable energy in next five years.
Outlook of polysilicon application in solar energy industry
With immature technology, China’s polysilicon supply mainly depended on imported product
before 2009 which hampered China’s solar cell development. Moreover, polysilicon’s high product
cost caused by inefficient technology, restrained the promotion of polysilicon solar cell in China’s
market, and China’s PV market developed slowly. However, this situation is changing now.
Domestic solar cell demand is determined by on-grid price and cost of solar power generation.
Once these two problems are solved, domestic demand will increase considerably. However,
based on current government’s attitude about the pricing for electricity from solar power and
technology level of PV industry, installation capacity of solar cell will not increase much in the
following *** years.
Competition and opportunity
Future competition of polysilicon industry will be conducted from all the aspects. With more and
more intense competition from overseas countries and domestic manufacturers, industrial
integration will be the future trend. Moreover, banks’ cautious attitude in lending money to
polysilicon manufacturers is actually an opportunity to investment institutions.
Character of CCM' Report:
The aim of this report is to provide powerful assistance to the strategy group and the management
team in making correct decision as how to penetrate the ever-increasing China market and how to
catch the maximum commercial opportunities. The report is formulated independently by CCM’s
professional market researchers, based on the first-hand and primary data which are analyzed by
scientific methodology, confirmed with both manufacturers/end users/traders and legal authorities,
and presented in a logic way.
Sample pages:
6. I Overview of polysilicon industry in China
In past three years, China is working hard on establishing a complete polysilicon industrial
chain, from silicon ore, industrial grade silicon, polysilicon, silicon ingot and silicon wafer to
solar cell……
II Soaring capacity and existent problems
II-2 Key producers
With rapid development of solar cell production in China, increasing numbers of new entrants
have entered into polysilicon production……
Table II-2-1 Domestic key active polysilicon producers, as of Oct. 2009
No. Name Ownership Technology
Capacity
'08 (t/a)
Capacity
Oct. '09 (t/a)
Output
'08 (t)
1 0000000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
2 00000000000 Private 000000 0 000000 000000
3 000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
4 000000 000000 Siemens 000000 000000 000000
5 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 200
6 Luoyang Zhonggui High-tech Co., Ltd. 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
7 00000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
8 000000 00000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
9 0000000 0000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
10 000000000 00000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
11 00000 000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
12 00000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
13 0000 0000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
14 0000000 0000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
15 00000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
16 00000000 000000 000000 UMG 000000 000000 0
00000000000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
17 00000000000 000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
18 00000000000000 000000 000000 100 000000 000000
Others - - 000000 000000 000000
Total - - 0000000 000000 000000
Source: CCM International
Note: Siemens represents modified Siemens process①
UMG② represents upgraded Metallurgic Grade from Apolli Technology
7. III Influencing factors from government
The attitude of Chinese government towards polysilicon industry, in the long run, is to support
its development, though the government has released some policies to restraint China’s
overheated investment in polysilicon projects recently.……
IV Trade analysis on polysilicon
In the past, China’s polysilicon consumption has greatly depended on import and little Chinese
product has been exported due to China’s small output……
Table IV-1 Import and export situation of silicon products under HS code 28046190①,
2004-2009②
Year Import volume
(kg)
Import value
(USD)
Import price
(USD/kg)
Export volume
(kg)
Export value
(USD)
Export price
(USD/kg)
2004 000000 80,802,210 000000 000000 000000 000000
2005 000000 000000 000000 521,857 000000 000000
2006 000000 000000 89.89 000000 000000 000000
2007 9,211,024 000000 000000 000000 87,895,356 000000
2008 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 29.18
2009 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000 000000
Source: CCM International
Note: ① Products under HS code 28046190 include silicon whose silicon content of at least 99.99%, containing solar
grade polysilicon, electric grade polysilicon and other silicon.
② The situation of 2009 is as of August 2009
V Competition among polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon and non-crystalline silicon
market in China
Taking production cost and conversion rate into account, core competition of different silicon
products in solar cell application, focuses on polysilicon and non-crystalline silicon.
Table V-2-1 Comparisons between polysilicon and non-crystalline silicon, as of Oct. 2009
Item Polysilicon Non-crystalline silicon
Electricity cost, USD/kw 000000 000000
Average conversion rate 000000 000000
Pollution 000000 000000
Source: CCM International
8. VII Market outlook of polysilicon in China’s solar PV industry
Influence on market
Influence on price
Table VII-1-1 Price of polysilicon and its unit cost in solar cell, 2005-2009
Year 2005 2008 2009
Price of polysilicon, USD/kg 000000 000000 000000
Unit cost in solar cell, USD/kg 000000 000000 000000
Source: CCM International
Decreasing polysilicon price in China will facilitate price reduction of domestic solar cell, thus
enhancing its market competitiveness in global stage.
Influence on product structure
Table VII-1-2 Market share of solar cell with different silicon as raw material, 2008
Solar cell Polysilicon solar cell Monocrystalline silicon solar cell
Non-crystalline silicon solar
cell
Market share 000000 000000 000000
Source:CCM International
VII-2 Outlook of polysilicon application in solar PV industry
VII-2-1 Development of China’s solar cell industry
Current situation of Chinese solar photovoltaic industry
Promoted by the world’s booming solar PV industry, China’s solar cell industry has been
developing rapidly since 2005…….
Table VII-2-1-1 Domestic crystalline silicon solar cell① production
No. Name Capacity '08 (MW) Capacity '09 (MW) Output '08 (MW)
1 Wuxi Suntech Power Co., Ltd. 000000 000000 000000
2 00 0000 000000 000000 000000
3 0000 00 000000 000000 000000
4 00 0000 000000 000000 000000
5 0 00000 000000 000000 000000
6 000 000 200 000000 000000
7 0000 00 000000 000000 000000
8 000 000 000000 200 000000
9 0000 00 000000 000000 000000
9. 10 ET Solar Group 000000 000000 000000
11 00 0000 000000 000000 000000
12 00 0000 000000 000000 000000
13 00 0000 000000 000000 000000
14 00 0000 000000 000000 50
Others 000000 000000 000000
Total 000000 000000 000000
Source: CCM International
Note: Crystalline silicon solar cell includes polysilicon and monocrystalline silicon solar cell①
VIII Competition and opportunity
Opportunity
Industrial integration: …..
Investment institution: …..
No encouragement on importing polysilicon: ……