Prudent real estate underwriting uses quantitative analysis. However, real estate math isn't just a black‐and‐white exercise, nor is it simple formula lending. Many qualitative judgments feed into your estimates of property cash flow, coverage, and value that come from quantitative analysis. Your analysis should be completed in the context of the qualitative credit risk assessment. Doing so will avoid over‐advancing on potentially weak property cash flow streams that will jeopardize repayment prospects and bank portfolio quality. This presentation looks at quantitative analysis and integrating qualitative factors; underwriting guidelines; regulatory guidance; and value and cash flow analyses.
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ANALYSIS GUIDELINES:
PRUDENT UNDERWRITING OF CRE
Develop the net operating income (NOI)
or cash flow using:
• Quantitative analysis.
• Qualitative analysis:
– Feeds into your estimates of property cash
flow, coverage, and value that come from
quantitative analysis.
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PRUDENT UNDERWRITING OF CRE:
IMPORTANT STEPS
Complete your analysis
in the context of the
qualitative credit risk
assessment.
Doing so will avoid over‐
advancing on potentially
weak property cash flow
streams that will in turn
jeopardize repayment
prospects and bank
portfolio quality.
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INTERPLAY BETWEEN QUALITATIVE AND
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS (CONT.)
Surrounding
properties/
geographics
Demographics
Local, regional, and
national economics
Vacancies
CRE operates
in a dynamic
marketplace affected
by multiple factors
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THE VACANCY FACTOR AND STABILITY
OVER THE LIFE OF THE PROPERTY
How the vacancy factor affects cash flow can’t be interpreted
without understanding the qualitative factors.
If the market or property type tends to have:
Longer lease terms in
place with its tenants,
this factor may be very
stable and
dependable.
Shorter‐term leases in
place (month‐to‐
month or even annual
basis), vacancy can
rapidly fluctuate with
market and
competitive changes.
Age, location, and
desirability (as
compared to the
competition) can be
factor when it comes
to having a stable
base of tenants and
less risk of a vacancy
increase, especially
during times of market
stress.
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ECONOMICS
It's impossible to be absolutely certain what a property's
future economics will be, despite the substantial amount
of thought and diligence that is put into the analysis.
Variables in the analysis outside
management's control:
Market rents Vacancy Investor appetites
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GEOGRAPHICS
Unlike other businesses, an
income‐producing property can't
simply move its operation to
another market or shift its product
offering and price point.
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Lenders'
assessments
factor in their
perception of the
reliability of the
calculated property
cash flow.
Consequently, the
final underwriting
must allow room
for variable
fluctuation.
CASH FLOW RELIABILITY
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CASH FLOW RELIABILITY (CONT.)
In a workout or liquidation
scenario, an owner‐occupied
property may need to be sold as
an income‐producing property.
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CASH FLOW RELIABILITY (CONT.)
If an
owner‐occupied
building or project is
converted into
leased space…
It's important to
consider whether
there could be
additional,
non‐owner‐occupied
uses that would
help ensure the
marketability of
the collateral.
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QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS GUIDELINES
The underwriting guidelines that a
financial institution applies to its real
estate loan decisions are an important
part of quantitative analysis.
There’s a wide range of borrower
financial measures that are important
to consider, including:
Historical and projected financial
performance, complete with liquidity,
leverage, and profitability analysis.
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MEASURES THAT DIRECTLY RELATE TO THE
NON‐OWNER‐OCCUPIED REAL ESTATE PROJECT
Maximum
loan‐to‐value
ratio (LTV)
• How much is
the bank
willing to lend
against the
appraised
value of the
property?
Maximum
loan‐to‐cost
ratio (LTC)
• How much is
the bank
willing to lend
against the
total cost to
build the
property?
Minimum cash
equity
• How much of
the borrower's
own funds (or
those of
investors)
must be
contributed
toward the
cost to build
or purchase
the property?
Minimum debt
service
coverage ratio
(DSC)
• How
adequately
must the
borrower
cover principal
and interest
payments
from internally
generated
funds?
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CREATE A GENERAL OUTLINE
The lending
policy should contain:
A general outline of the
scope and distribution of
your institution's credit
facilities.
The manner in which real
estate loans are made,
serviced, and collected.
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CREATE A GENERAL OUTLINE:
SPECIFIC AREAS TO ADDRESS
• The lender's intended geographic scope.Location
• Limits for real estate loans by type and
geographic market.
Limits
• Terms and conditions by type of real estate loan.Terms
• Loan origination and approval procedures.
• Exception procedures.
• Loan administration procedures.
Procedures
• Underwriting standards, including LTV limits
consistent with FDICIA guidelines.
• Capital capacity and parameters for making loans
in excess of established LTV guidelines.
Standards
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FDICIA UNDERWRITING
GUIDELINES: SUMMARY
• In the early 1990s, the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation Improvement Act
(FDICIA) required the industry to set
standards and guidelines for extension
of credit secured by liens on real estate
or made for the purpose of financing
permanent improvements to real estate.
2
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FDICIA UNDERWRITING
GUIDELINES: SUMMARY (CONT.)
Banks did not necessarily
have to overhaul their own
guidelines because of
FDICIA.
Many institutions were, and
remain, more conservative
in their own underwriting
standards.
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FDICIA UNDERWRITING GUIDELINES:
GENERAL REQUIREMENTS
• Apply to:
Financial institutions' real
estate lending policies.
Specific LTV limits to which
lenders must adhere.
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FDICIA UNDERWRITING GUIDELINES:
GENERAL REQUIREMENTS (CONT.)
Each insured depository institution
must adopt and maintain a written policy
To establish appropriate limits
and standards for all extensions
of credit that are secured by
liens on, or interests in, real
estate or made for the purpose
of financing the construction of
a building or other
improvements.
Every officer needs to know
where to find the policy for his
or her financial institution before
becoming involved with real
estate lending of any kind.
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FDICIA UNDERWRITING GUIDELINES:
GENERAL REQUIREMENTS (CONT.)
Banks are required to:
• Establish real estate appraisal
and evaluation programs.
• Provide for timely and adequate
management reports to boards of
directors.
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FDICIA UNDERWRITING GUIDELINES:
GENERAL REQUIREMENTS (CONT.)
Banks must adopt written policy guidelines
that address maximum loan amounts
and maturities by:
Property
type
Acceptable
amortization
schedules
Pricing
structures by
real estate
loan type
LTV limits by
property
type
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THE POLICY MUST ESTABLISH REQUIREMENTS FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND
COMPLETED COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES
Feasibility studies
Minimum equity
requirements
Minimum
standards for net
worth
Cash flow
and DSC
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THE POLICY MUST ESTABLISH REQUIREMENTS FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND
COMPLETED COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES (CONT.)
Standards and limits for
non-amortizing loans
and the use of interest
reserves
Preleasing and presale
requirements for loans
for income‐producing
properties
Presale and minimum
unit release
requirements for loans
for non‐income‐
producing properties
Limits on partial
recourse
or nonrecourse loans
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THE POLICY MUST ESTABLISH REQUIREMENTS FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND
COMPLETED COMMERCIAL PROPERTIES (CONT.)
Requirements for
guarantor support
Requirements for
takeout
commitments
Minimum
covenants
for loan
agreements
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INTERNAL LTV LIMITS
%
Raw land 65
Land development 75
Commercial, multifamily, and other
nonresidential construction
80
One‐to‐four family residential
construction
85
Improved property 85%. 85
Internal LTV limits should not exceed the following
supervisory limits:
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REGULATORY GUIDANCE
• The OCC, the Fed, and the FDIC issued joint
Guidance on Concentrations in Commercial Real
Estate Lending, Sound Risk Management
Practices.
• This Guidance reinforces sound risk management
practices for institutions with high and increasing
concentrations of commercial real estate loans on
their balance sheets.
• This Guidance applies to:
– National banks.
– State chartered banks (institutions).
– Bank holding companies.
3
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REGULATORY GUIDANCE: CHRONOLOGY
Collapse of
S&L Industry
Financial
Inst. Face
Problems
Inter-agency
Guidelines
Issued
Joint Policy
Statement
IssuedHigh portfolio
concentrations in real
estate categories,
especially
construction and
speculative projects,
accelerate the
collapse of the
savings and loan
(S&L) industry.
Financial
institutions were
again faced with
some of the same
problems.
To help better
monitor these
portfolio
concentrations,
inter‐agency
guidelines were
issued.
As real estate
markets weakened, a
joint policy statement
was made
concerning the
prudent handling of
problem CRE loans.
1990s 2000s 2006 2007–2008
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REGULATORY GUIDANCE: THRESHOLDS
The CRE concentrations guidance
established new thresholds for levels of
CRE loans as compared to a bank’s
capital.
• Thresholds to be monitored were
divided into two categories:
– Construction and land development
loans.
– Total CRE loans.
The total CRE category
excludes owner‐occupied loans.
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REGULATORY GUIDANCE:
THRESHOLDS (CONT.)
• The thresholds in the guidance
do not apply to Federal Saving
Banks (FSBs) because these
institutions must already
comply with portfolio
composition rules via the
Qualified Thrift Lender (QTL)
test within the Home Owner
Loan Act (HOLA).
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REGULATORY GUIDANCE:
THRESHOLDS (CONT.)
Banks that exceed the thresholds
or have exhibited high levels of
growth in CRE loans are
expected to have stronger risk
management practices and
procedures for CRE lending.
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REGULATORY GUIDANCE:
LOAN WORKOUTS
The policy statement on prudent CRE loan
workouts addressed the challenges banks faced in
dealing with:
CRE borrowers
with diminished
cash flows
Deteriorating
property values
Prolonged
sales and rental
absorption
periods
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REGULATORY GUIDANCE: IMPACT
While both of these more recent
documents may not have the same
impact on a bank’s day‐to‐day lending
activities as FDICIA, they are equally
important in influencing how bank’s
management deals with its CRE
portfolio.
• For example, these portfolio issues
can filter down to playing a role in
the types of properties the bank
may be more or less active in
because of concentration issues.
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OTHER RESOURCES
The RMA Journal published two excellent articles
about the interagency concentrations guidance
"Regulatory Guidance on
Commercial Real Estate
Risk" (April 2007):
explains
the guidance and the
seven key areas.
"Adapting to CRE
Concentration and Risk
Management Guidelines"
(April 2007):
describes one bank's
firsthand experience in
incorporating the
principles.
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ANALYZING VALUE AND CASH FLOW
It is essential to assess both LTV
and DSC as part of analyzing a
loan's conformance to the FDICIA
underwriting guidelines.
4
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ANALYZING VALUE AND CASH FLOW (CONT.)
The value of an
income‐producing property
is a function of the stream
of cash flows, or rentals,
generated by the property.
Before determining the
LTV measure, the lender
must first identify the
property's likely cash flow.
These same cash flows
are the basis for income
available for debt service.
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CASH FLOW AND
INCOME-PRODUCING PROPERTIES
Some
owner‐occupied
properties also
include space
leased to tenants.
Consider the
property's potential to
be leased for rental
income in the event
the property has to
be liquidated or
managed during a
loan workout.
In many cases,
this will allow you
to gauge the value
of the secondary
source of
repayment.
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INCOME PROPERTY CASH
FLOW ANALYSIS INTELLIGENCE
When constructing
a cash flow profile
for an income‐
producing property
such as a
downtown office
building, ask:
1. How much space does the building
have available for lease?
2. How much does the space rent for?
3. Is every inch of space always
rented out?
4. What does it cost to operate the
building?
5. What is the annual cost per square
foot of items that need to be
expensed for eventual
replacement?
6. What does it cost to persuade
tenants to renew their leases and to
attract new tenants for space that
becomes available?
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The following slides provide details
for each question.
INCOME PROPERTY CASH
FLOW ANALYSIS INTELLIGENCE
(CONT.)
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HOW MUCH SPACE DOES THE BUILDING
HAVE AVAILABLE FOR LEASE?
• The space availability can be expressed in terms
of total square footage available for rent.
It can be presumed that the space is not evenly
divided into identical units:
Some portions of the building are not available for
rent, such as hallways and restrooms.
For comparison with other buildings, it’s important
to know if square footage is calculated on a gross
basis, meaning all areas included, or on a net
basis, excluding non‐rented space.
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HOW MUCH DOES THE SPACE RENT FOR?
Lease rates are
sometimes negotiated
and there is not
necessarily one uniform
rental rate in force.
If possible, always
underwrite to
comparable market
rental rates per square
foot.
Consider the nature of
the rental space. Is it a
basement or a
penthouse?
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IS EVERY INCH OF SPACE ALWAYS
RENTED OUT?
Logic says that
there will always be
some portion of the
building that is not
rented, perhaps
because it's:
• Between tenants.
• Under renovation.
• Vacant for some
other temporary
reason.
Vacancy includes
an allowance for
losses that might
be incurred from
tenants who refuse
to pay due to:
• Disputes.
• Bankruptcies.
• Other reasons that
rents cannot be
collected.
The general
convention is to
express the vacant
space as a
percentage of total
rentable square
feet.
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WHAT DOES IT COST TO OPERATE
THE BUILDING?
Operating Expenses
Generally expressed on an
annual basis, per square foot.
Include utilities, taxes,
management fees, maintenance,
marketing, insurance, and legal
and accounting fees, for example.
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WHAT DOES IT COST TO OPERATE
THE BUILDING? (CONT.)
Operating Expenses
Sometimes passed on to the tenant,
depending on how the lease is written.
Net lease: passes some or all
expenses to the tenant.
Gross lease: the building owner pays
all expenses.
Because of expense uncertainties, a
gross lease will usually have a
cushion built into the lease rate.
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WHAT DOES IT COST TO OPERATE THE
BUILDING? (CONT.)
• The risk of cost increases can be passed on to the
tenants.
• The most common type of net lease passes taxes,
insurance, and maintenance expenses to the tenants.
Net lease
advantages
• It’s important to read the leases in question. Many
times the terms net, triple net, net net net, and gross
are used and could have subtle differences in different
markets.
Market
differences
• Care should be taken to discover items such as
expense stops, which limit the amount of expenses a
landlord will pay.
Expense
stops
• There is no substitute for reading and understanding
the lease.
Read the
lease
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WHAT IS THE ANNUAL COST PER
SQUARE FOOT OF ITEMS THAT NEED TO BE
EXPENSED FOR EVENTUAL REPLACEMENT?
In the case of an apartment complex,
It’s important to include a provision for
the replacement of dishwashers,
refrigerators, ranges, air conditioners,
furnaces, and roofs in the underwriting
analysis, whether or not the borrower
creates an actual sinking fund.
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WHAT DOES IT COST TO PERSUADE TENANTS TO
RENEW THEIR LEASES AND TO ATTRACT NEW TENANTS
FOR SPACE THAT BECOMES AVAILABLE?
Redecorating, renovation, and leasing agent commissions
are often necessary to re-lease space, even to the existing
tenant.
• For this reason, an allowance per square foot needs to
be established and accounted for from the net cash
flow.
Rollover costs may vary from year to year because there
may be either no leases renewing or three or four new
tenants or lease renewals during any given year.
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WHAT DOES IT COST TO PERSUADE
TENANTS TO RENEW THEIR LEASES AND TO
ATTRACT NEW TENANTS…? (CONT.)
The property owner or developer will supply
the historical information or estimates for the
income property cash flow analysis if the
project is a new one.
Regardless, due diligence procedures of
independent confirmation certainly apply to
real estate loans.
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WHAT DOES IT COST TO PERSUADE
TENANTS TO RENEW THEIR LEASES AND TO
ATTRACT NEW TENANTS…? (CONT.)
Revenues Vacancy percentages
Replacement
reserves
Operating and
rollover expenses
Survey the
local market
Compare to the owner or developer's information.
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WHAT DOES IT COST TO PERSUADE
TENANTS TO RENEW THEIR LEASES AND
TO ATTRACT NEW TENANTS…? (CONT.)
Evaluate information for
competing projects, if available,
include:
Appraisal information from other
developers and real estate brokers.
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Read about RMA’s
Commercial Real Estate
Lending Decision Process
online course here:
http://www.rmahq.org/tools-
publications/rma-
university/rma-university-
online/commercial-real-
estate-lending-decision-
process
LEARN MORE
Watch the video tutorial about
RMA’s Commercial Real
Estate Lending Decision
Process online course here:
https://ebiz.rmahq.org/eBusP
PRO/courses/cre_tutorial/cou
rse.htm?
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