1. Demographic Transition Theory
Ideas of this theory was articulated by Warren Thomas in 1929
This model describes a series of changes over a period of time in the relationship between
birth and death ratio and overall population change
Similar to Marx, this theory exemplifies the development of capitalism in European
society, i.e. it represents the transition from primitive communities to 19th century
capitalism
Warren’s findings were derived by looking at demographic change between specific
countries in 1908 – 1927
In an analysis of these findings, he argued that all countries pass through similar
demographic transition stages or population cycles
The model consists of 4 stages
Stage 1 – High Fluctuating UK pre-1760
Birth rates and death rates fluctuated at a high level thus giving a small population
growth
The birth rates were higher because:
1. There was no birth control or family planning
2. There was a high rate of infant mortality thus tended to procreate more in the
hopes that several would survive
3. Many children were needed to work on the land as the family was seen as the unit
of production
4. Children were regarded as a sign of virility
Warren in his analysis, also found that during the 1st stage the death rates were higher –
especially among children
This was so because:
1. Disease and plagues
2. Famine, poor diets, unclean food supplies
3. Poor sanitation – no piped clean water, no sewage disposal
4. Poor health care – little medical service, few doctors, hospitals and drugs
Stage 2 – Early Expanding UK 1760 - 1880
There was higher birth rates but a rapid decline in the death rate thus contributing to a
rapid population growth
2. It is important to note that this period marked the birth of the Industrial Revolution which
brought with it many social and economic benefits for society and is said to be
responsible for the improved lives of humans and their increased life expectancy
The fall in death rates resulted from:
1. Improved medical care – vaccines, hospitals, drugs, doctors and scientific
inventions
2. Improved sanitation and water supply
3. Improved transport to move food, doctors etc
4. Improvements in food production in terms of quantity and quality
5. A decrease in child mortality
Stage 3 – Late Expanding UK 1880 - 1940
Birth rates fell rapidly while death rates continued to fall slightly
This resulting in a slowly increasing population
The fall in birth rates may be due to:
1. Family planning – contraceptives, sterilization, abstinence and government
incentives
2. A reduction in the infant mortality rate thus resulting in less pressure to have
many children
3. Increased industrialization and mechanisation leading to the need for fewer
workers
4. A shift in the structure and function of the family from a unit of production to a
unit of consumption. As a result there was now an increased desire for material
possessions – cars, houses, foreign holidays – and less desire for large families
5. The emancipation of women – they no longer saw themselves as child-bearers and
housewives. They became career oriented
Stage 4 – Low Fluctuating UK post-1940
Birth rates and death rates remained low and there is a slight fluctuation giving rise to a
steady population
In some cases the birth rate and death rate may slightly exceed the other
In extreme cases this stage could also give birth to a negative population growth
Things to note
Stage 1 and 2 reveal a society steeped in mechanical solidarity – the mode of production
was agriculture
Stage 3 was the transition to organic solidarity
3. Parsons spoke of the process of specialization and social differentiation, the emergence of
small privatised nuclear households and a shift in the value system from particularism to
universalism
Criticisms
The model was Eurocentric
1. Argued that all countries would pass through the same 4 stages
2. However, it was unlikely that some countries were economically less developed,
e.g. Africa would ever become developed
In some cases the fall in death rates in stage 2 was assumed to be the consequence of
industrialization. However, in Britain, the death rate was due to unsanitary conditions
which resulted from rapid urban growth and it only began to fall after advances were
made in medicine
In relation to the fall of birth rates in stage 3 – it could have been due to religious or
political opposition to birth control
The time scale of the model – some countries tend to develop at a much faster rate than
others as did the early industrial countries, e.g. Hong Kong
Uses of the model
To show population growth changes of a country over time
To compare rates of growth between different countries at a given point in time