The Brussels Development Briefing n. 58 on “Africa’s Agriculture Trade in a changing environment” organised by CTA, the European Commission/EuropeAid, the ACP Secretariat, IFPRI, Concord and BMZ/GIZ was held on Wednesday 23 October 2019 (9h00-13h00) at Hotel Sofitel Brussels Europe, Place Jourdan 1, 1040 Brussels. The briefing brought various perspectives and experiences around the new trends and opportunities in intra-Africa trade in the context of free trade agreements and regional integration. It also showed Africa trade within the broader global trade picture and with the EU as one of the main trade partners. Experts presented trends and prospects of regional trade in Africa in the light of new policy developments as well as Africa’s recent performance in different markets. It also featured successes and innovative models in regional trade across regions in Africa and lessons learned for upscaling and expanding regional trade.

1. Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor
2019
Antoine Bouët
MTID
International Food Policy Research Institute
Brussels | October 23rd, 2019

2. Six Chapters
 Chapter 1 – Overview
 Chapter 2 – Africa in Global Agricultural Trade
 Chapter 3 – Intra-African Trade Integration
 Chapter 4 – Competitiveness of African Agricultural Value Chains
 Chapter 5 – A Global Trading System in Turmoil? What is at Stake for
Africa
 Chapter 6 – Regional Trade Integration in Eastern and Southern
Africa

3. Eleven authors
 Albert Makochekanwa, University of Zimbabwe
 Antoine Bouët, IFPRI and University of Bordeaux
 Betina Dimaranan, IFPRI
 Chahir Zaki, Cairo University
 Cheickh Sadibou Fall, ISRA-Dakar
 David Laborde, IFPRI
 Fousseini Traore, IFPRI
 Greenwell Matchaya, ReSAKSS-SA
 Lionel Cosnard, University of Bordeaux
 Senakpon Fidele Ange Dedehouanou, University of Abomey Calavi
 Sunday Pierre Odjo, IFPRI

4. Two objectives and two requirements
Objectives
- Present recent trends
- Provide analyses of important issues
Requirements
- A unique database designed with coherence
- Policy recommendations

5. The political and economic context is specific…
Protectionist trends
oProtectionist threats by US administration
oTrade war between US and China
oBrexit
African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
oLaunched in Kigali in 2018
oLargest FTA in the world
oOther African initiatives

6. The African agricultural trade deficit decreases..
 Source: COMTRADE and authors’ calculations

7. The African share of agricultural GDP increases..
 Source: COMTRADE, WDI and authors’ calculations

8. Africa’s Comparative Advantages in Agriculture
Most RCAs in 2017 in agriculture are in eight categories:
 horticultural products
 fish and related products
 livestock products
 cocoa and its derivatives
 cotton and related products
 sesame
 tobacco
 and legumes

9. African agricultural exports are not enough diversified…
 Number of Equivalent Markets/Index of product diversification of agricultural
exports – average 2016-2017
 Source: COMTRADE and authors’ calculations

10. Regional trade integration looks low, but is not measured
consistently…
 Share of intraregional trade for all products, 2005-2017
 Source: COMTRADE and authors’ calculations

11. Exporting agricultural
products in Africa is so
costly…
 Source: MAcMAP-HS6 (2016);
BACI; Doing Business (2018); …

12. Analysis of market share changes, 2005-2017
 Decomposition of Market Share Changes, 2015-2017/2005-2007
 Source: COMTRADE and authors’ calculation

13. African exports remain dominated by primary products…
 African agricultural exports by destination and stage of processing;
2005-2017
 Source: COMTRADE and authors’ calculation

14. US Trade Wars: what is at stake for Africa?
 US trade wars has already hurt the world economy
 Evaluation of these trade wars with a CGE model
oAfrica can benefit from new market opportunities (China)
o… but the global impact on Africa will be negative if
protectionist policies are adopted by a wide range of
countries

15. The promises of the AfCFTA
 The AfCFTA is promising
oTrade creation
oClimbing the value chain ladder
oA safety net against worldwide protectionist attitudes
 But to be successful, the negotiations must address the
biggest impediments to trade
oNTMs
oCustom procedures
oTransportation infrastructure