Whether you believe in anthropogenic climate change or not, there are far more than enough weather-related surprises to go around. And one of the best ways to prepare for them is to be aware of the full spectrum of possibilities using the tools already built for climate-change forecasting. Water-sector utilities should be especially alert to these needs, since water and wastewater are absolutely essential services -- and they're frequently located in places at the greatest risk from surprise weather outlier events.
Dealing with Mother Nature's Attitude Problem - v.17
1. DEALING WITH MOTHER NATURE'S
ATTITUDE PROBLEM
Brian Gongol
DJ Gongol & Associates, Inc.
April 7, 2021
Great Plains Waste Management Conference
Virtual Presentation
11. Even more far-out: Meteor strikes
It happened in Manson, Iowa
74 million years ago
Creating a crater 23 miles across
And in Russia
In 2014
Causing 1,000 injuries
12. Even more far-out: Meteor strikes
556 recorded events between 1994 and 2013
68. Recent history
2010: Major summer flooding
2011: Record-breaking Missouri River flooding
2012: Driest year in Nebraska history
2013: October tornadoes (EF-4 in Wayne)
2014: Bitter extended winter, Pilger tornado cluster
2015: All-time high pressure record set at Grand Island
2016: Tornadoes on Christmas Day
2017: Above-normal temps in 9 of 12 months
2018: April blizzards
2019: Bomb cyclone and months of catastrophic flooding
2020: Catastrophic eastern Nebraska/trans-Iowa derecho
107. Don't try everything at once
There are enough scenarios and possibilities
to take them one per week
108. With or without global warming...
You don't have to believe
in man-made climate change
to make good use of the tools
109. EPA tools for climate change
Or just Mother Nature's attitude problem
110. Adaptation Tools for Public Officials
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/
adapt-tools.html
Lots of links all in one place
111. Adaptation Strategies Guide for Water Utilities
https://www.epa.gov/crwu/resilient-strategies-guide-water-
utilities#/
Long, but sections are devoted to individual regions
113. Map of expected climate change effects
http://water.epa.gov/infrastructure/watersecurity/climate/
scenario.cfm
Interactive drill-down to your community
115. A few words on decision-making frameworks
React to the most recent disaster
Rank preparations by expected value
Use the minimax approach
116. A few words on decision error
Blindness to anything that isn't recent
Blindness to anything that isn't nearby
Tornadoes, floods, drought, ice storms, power outages
Attention is not the same as probability
High-impact events are often infrequent
117. Questions?
Thank you for coming!
Brian Gongol
DJ Gongol & Associates
515-223-4144
brian@djgongol.com
Twitter/Facebook/
LinkedIn/Instagram:
@djgongol
118. References and credits
Human impact on climate change:
http://arstechnica.com/science/2013/09/ipcc-climate-change-report-is-out-its-warmer-and-were-responsible/
http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WG1AR5_Headlines.pdf
Tambora volcano:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/car/Newsletter/htm_format_articles/climate_corner/yearwithoutsummer_lf.htm
Ice Age/Chicago Tribune headline:
http://archives.chicagotribune.com/1979/01/14/page/4/article/were-slipping-into-an-ice-age/index.html
Asteroid map:
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=84763
Manson impact crater:
http://www.iihr.uiowa.edu/igs/meteorites-in-iowa/
Russian asteroid in 2014:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-23/asteroid-samples-analysed-after-earth-collision/5472798
Icelandic flag:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ic.html
El Nino map:
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/
Republican River dispute:
http://www.kearneyhub.com/news/regional_news/m-spent-by-nebraska-in-republican-river-basin-fight/article_61a43903-0bb3-5f07-89c3-0ebebfa56b6e.html
http://www.omaha.com/news/nebraska/nebraska-considered-big-winner-in-river-dispute-with-kansas-despite/article_7dec6af2-bc3b-11e4-baa8-d705578bcee6.html
Solar flare image:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/news/News062013-cme.html#.Um3mcPnksrU
Ozone hole image:
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/Scripts/big_image.php?date=2006-09-24&hem=S
Federal funds rate graph:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/
Earth from space:
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=57723
Wayne tornado in 2014:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/oax/?n=surveyresultsfromwayne,netornado
Climate records:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/climatological-rankings/
Donald Rumsfeld:
https://www.dvidshub.net/image/33935/rumsfeld-visits-troops-farewell-visit#.VQERtI54o3U
Groundwater map:
http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/StateMap.asp?sa=NE&sc=31
All other photos are copyright Brian Gongol