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Concentrating Solar: Readyfortakeoff – or stalled on the launchpad? ASES May 18, 2011 Brett Prior, CFA Senior Analyst Greentech Media / GTM Research
CSP PV Flat plate Trough CLFR CPV Dish Tower
Future looks bright for CSP Source: GTM Research
Near term pipeline mostly trough, with tower in 2014+ Source: GTM Research
CSP Plants In Operation (1,167 MW Total) Spain: 582 MW France: 1 MW Germany: 2 MW U.S.: 507 MW Iran: 62 MW Australia: 3 MW                                            Parabolic Trough                                     Power Tower                      CLFR                                 Dish Engine                               MicroCSP
CSP Plants Under Construction/Development (17,539 MW Total) Israel: 250 MW Jordan: 100 MW Spain: 4,456 MW France: 21 MW Italy: 28 MW U.S.: 8,669 MW China: 2,500 MW Greece: 50 MW Egypt: 20 MW Morocco: 520 MW Algeria: 20 MW 14% India: 70 MW Sudan: 250 MW 76% UAE: 100 MW Australia: 520 MW South Africa: 100 MW                                           Parabolic Trough                                      Power Tower                      CLFR                                 Dish Engine                               MicroCSP                      TBA
US CSP Market
Robust pipeline with trough & tower BrightSource Ivanpah BrightSource’s Ivanpah Abengoa Solana
Robust pipeline with trough & tower Abengoa Solana STA Blythe NextEra Genesis & Beacon BrightSource Ivanpah UA Tech Park Source: GTM Research
Crescent Dunes NEVADA US CSP Project Tracker UTAH CALIFORNIA Amargosa Farm Road Beacon Solar Coyote Springs (I & II) Fort Irwin Gaskell (I & II) BrightSource-Ivanpah eSolar (I & II) Kingman Project (I & II) AMS Harper Lake Palmdale Parabolic Trough Hualapai Valley Solar Project Mojave Solar Victorville Genesis  (I & II) Rice Solar ARIZONA Power Tower Palen Quartzsite Solar Imperial Valley II Solana Dish-Engine Blythe (I & II) Sonoran Solar PPA Signed No PPA Signed Imperial Valley I UA Tech Park Mt. Signal Solar Size Represents Project Capacity in MW SolarCAT Pilot Last update 2/14/11   Created by Brett Prior (prior@gtmresearch.com) 5 MW 100 MW 250 MW 500 MW >1,000 MW
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Analysis
Cost per watt is a key input for LCOE Source: GTM Research
Since 2007, LCOE flat over time - but lower at scale Source: GTM Research
LCOE varies widely by solar technology Source: GTM Research
Our forecast for LCOE shows dramatic improvements Source: GTM Research
Market Share Analysis
Source: GTM Research
Q&A Brett Prior, CFA Senior Analyst GTM Research prior@gtmresearch.com

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CSP Presentation from ASES

  • 1. Concentrating Solar: Readyfortakeoff – or stalled on the launchpad? ASES May 18, 2011 Brett Prior, CFA Senior Analyst Greentech Media / GTM Research
  • 2. CSP PV Flat plate Trough CLFR CPV Dish Tower
  • 3. Future looks bright for CSP Source: GTM Research
  • 4. Near term pipeline mostly trough, with tower in 2014+ Source: GTM Research
  • 5. CSP Plants In Operation (1,167 MW Total) Spain: 582 MW France: 1 MW Germany: 2 MW U.S.: 507 MW Iran: 62 MW Australia: 3 MW Parabolic Trough Power Tower CLFR Dish Engine MicroCSP
  • 6. CSP Plants Under Construction/Development (17,539 MW Total) Israel: 250 MW Jordan: 100 MW Spain: 4,456 MW France: 21 MW Italy: 28 MW U.S.: 8,669 MW China: 2,500 MW Greece: 50 MW Egypt: 20 MW Morocco: 520 MW Algeria: 20 MW 14% India: 70 MW Sudan: 250 MW 76% UAE: 100 MW Australia: 520 MW South Africa: 100 MW Parabolic Trough Power Tower CLFR Dish Engine MicroCSP TBA
  • 8. Robust pipeline with trough & tower BrightSource Ivanpah BrightSource’s Ivanpah Abengoa Solana
  • 9. Robust pipeline with trough & tower Abengoa Solana STA Blythe NextEra Genesis & Beacon BrightSource Ivanpah UA Tech Park Source: GTM Research
  • 10. Crescent Dunes NEVADA US CSP Project Tracker UTAH CALIFORNIA Amargosa Farm Road Beacon Solar Coyote Springs (I & II) Fort Irwin Gaskell (I & II) BrightSource-Ivanpah eSolar (I & II) Kingman Project (I & II) AMS Harper Lake Palmdale Parabolic Trough Hualapai Valley Solar Project Mojave Solar Victorville Genesis (I & II) Rice Solar ARIZONA Power Tower Palen Quartzsite Solar Imperial Valley II Solana Dish-Engine Blythe (I & II) Sonoran Solar PPA Signed No PPA Signed Imperial Valley I UA Tech Park Mt. Signal Solar Size Represents Project Capacity in MW SolarCAT Pilot Last update 2/14/11 Created by Brett Prior (prior@gtmresearch.com) 5 MW 100 MW 250 MW 500 MW >1,000 MW
  • 11.
  • 12. Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Analysis
  • 13. Cost per watt is a key input for LCOE Source: GTM Research
  • 14. Since 2007, LCOE flat over time - but lower at scale Source: GTM Research
  • 15. LCOE varies widely by solar technology Source: GTM Research
  • 16. Our forecast for LCOE shows dramatic improvements Source: GTM Research
  • 19. Q&A Brett Prior, CFA Senior Analyst GTM Research prior@gtmresearch.com