The document provides a summary and analysis of Malaysian companies' 1Q09 earnings results. Some key points:
- The results season was not as bad as feared, with fewer companies missing expectations than in previous quarters. EPS forecasts for 2009 and 2010 were surprisingly raised rather than cut.
- Six sectors disappointed expectations while two performed above. The revision ratio improved to 0.6x, indicating less negative earnings momentum.
- The worst could be over as future quarters may see more balanced results and fewer EPS cuts. However, EPS growth may not turn positive again until 3Q09.
- During the results period, the analyst raised forecasts for eight companies and lowered forecasts for 23 companies.
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Not as bad as feared, worst over?
1. STRATEGY
2 June 2009
CIMB Research Report
MALAYSIA
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
1Q09 results round-up 1,044 @29/05/09
Not as bad as feared, worst over? Target Index: 1,220
KLCI INDEX Terence Wong, CFA +60 (3) 2084-9689 – terence.wong@cimb.com
• Not as bad as feared. Poor though the results were, the May results season was
not as bad as feared. In fact, there were reasons to be encouraged. The revision
ratio improved from 0.43x in Feb 09 to 0.6x, meaning that the earnings downgrade
momentum is not as lopsided as before. Some 60% of companies met
expectations (43% previously) and 25% failed to deliver (40% before). 15% did
better than expected, a slight pullback from 17% during the Feb results season. In
terms of sector performance, six disappointed while only two were above
expectations.
• EPS forecast surprisingly raised. More significant than the actual number of
companies that surpassed or missed expectations is the fact that 2009 and 2010
EPS have been raised, rather than cut. This is a pleasant surprise. Since the Feb
results season, 2009 EPS contraction has been reduced from 8% to around 6%
while 2010 EPS growth has been raised from 16% to 19%. Upgrades came largely
from the plantation sector due to firm CPO prices, as well as big caps such as
Axiata and Maybank, which more than offset letdowns from smaller caps.
• The worst could be over. In our Apr strategy when we upgraded Malaysia to
Overweight, we thought 2Q could provide a buying opportunity due to 1) the
expected poor results season, and 2) announcement of a sharp contraction in
1Q09 GDP. We were only partially right on the first count as 1Q09 results have
turned out to be not as bad as expected and did not present any major shocks or
earnings downgrades. This means that there is a good chance we are past the
worst as upcoming quarters may be more balanced and EPS cuts could have
bottomed out. Fundamentally, this is hugely positive for the market.
• New KLCI target of 1,220. Although our economics team was spot on about 1Q
GDP being weak – it sank 6.2% – the market took the bad news in its stride. This
is an indication of how far market confidence has improved in the past two
months. We continue to believe the gradual reinvestment of institutional funds’
spare cash will sustain the market rebound in 2H09. In view of the better-than-
expected 1Q results season, continued positive newsflow during PM Dato’ Sri
Najib Razak’s first 100 days in office and the gradual return of foreign funds to the
market, we upgrade our year-end KLCI target from 1,060 to 1,220 points after
removing the 10% discount to its 3-year moving average P/E of 15x. We maintain
our OVERWEIGHT stance on Malaysia and our preference for cyclical bombed-
out sectors including construction, building materials, property and oil & gas.
Figure 1: 1Q09 results by sector and for the KLCI
Rec 1 Q0 9 pe rforma nce Res ul ts vs. Comme nts
qoq cha nge yoy cha nge e xpec ta tions
A uto motive NEUTRA L -3 4. 8% -8 9.0 % B elow Lo we r sa les vo lume a nd ma rgin p ressure fr FX.
B an king & Fin an ce NEUTRA L -1 8. 5% -2 1.5 % In line Expe cting furth er incre ase in cred it costs
B uilding m ate rials OVE RW EIG HT -149. 5% -6 6.9 % In line Bet ter AS Ps a nd expe ct dem and to imp rove in 2H
Food & b evera ge NEUTRA L 1 7. 2% 2.6% In line Rising cost p ressures m itiga ted by dece nt d ivid en ds
G am in g OVE RW EIG HT -4 3. 4% -2 6.7 % B elow Ca sino in lin e but NFO affecte d b y luck
In du stria l OVE RW EIG HT 26 3. 1% -1 1.2 % B elow Ma rg ins susta ina ble
In frastructu re TRADING BUY -0. 6% -2 7.1 % In line Expe ct pu mp p rim in g to pick u p
In surance TRADING BUY NM -20 3.9% A bove Bet ter invest ment in com e a nd imp rovin g cla ims ratio
M ed ia NEUTRA L -7 1. 7% -18 9.0% B elow Ad volum e co uld de ce lerate
O il & gas OVE RW EIG HT 10 6. 7% 2.7% In line Ben eficiary of recovery in cru de oil price
P lanta tion s UNDERW EIGHT -2 4. 2% -5 6.2 % In line Expe ct be tte r earn in gs in futu re q uarte rs
P ro pe rtie s TRADING BUY -1 8. 4% -1 9.2 % B elow Ma rg in sq uee ze f or de velop ers
Techn olog y NEUTRA L -264. 9% -17 1.5% In line Sem icon s we re a bo ve ; Uchi a nd Jobstre et belo w
Tele comm unica tio ns NEUTRA L 9 7. 0% -1 9.1 % In line Axiata be at expectatio ns, DiGi a nd TM in lin e
Toba cco UNDERW EIGHT 3 1. 0% -1.4% In line We ak volume and tou gh er op eratin g e nviro nme nt.
Tran spo rt & log istics UNDERW EIGHT 0. 4% -6 1.3 % B elow Ship ping be low, A irAsia abo ve
Utilit ie s NEUTRA L 4 3. 0% -3.3% A bove Lo we r-th an-e xpect ed coal u sage
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
2. Analysis of May reporting season
Although the May corporate results season was poor, there were some bright spots.
Out of the 75 companies that we track, only 25% fell short of expectations, a big
improvement on the 40% that failed to deliver in Feb. The percentage of companies
that outdid expectations, however, edged down from 17% to 15% while the proportion
of those that lived up to expectations jumped from 43% to 60%. The number of
sectors that missed the mark fell from seven to six, i.e. auto, gaming, media, oil & gas,
plantations and property. Again, no sector performed convincingly above expectations
though defensive sectors such as telco and utilities again performed commendably.
Figure 2: 1Q09 results vs. our forecasts
Sector Vs. our forecasts %
Above In line Below Total Above In line Below
Automotive 0 1 2 3 0 33 67
Banking & Finance 2 6 1 9 22 67 11
Buildings materials 1 1 0 2 50 50 0
Conglomerates 0 0 1 1 0 0 100
Food & beverage 0 5 0 5 0 100 0
Gaming 0 1 4 5 0 20 80
Industrial 0 6 0 6 0 100 0
Infrastructure 1 7 1 9 11 78 11
Insurance 1 0 0 1 100 0 0
Media 0 1 4 5 0 20 80
Oil & gas 0 4 1 5 0 80 20
Plantations 0 3 1 4 0 75 25
Properties 0 2 1 3 0 67 33
Technology 2 2 0 4 50 50 0
Telecommunications 1 2 0 3 33 67 0
Tobacco 0 2 0 2 0 100 0
Transport & logistics 2 1 3 6 33 17 50
Utilities 1 1 0 2 50 50 0
Total 11 45 19 75 15 60 25
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
Figure 3: Performance relative to expectations in the reporting seasons
80%
75% 71% 69%
70% 63% 63% 71% 63% 60%
59% 56% 59%
60% 54% 53% 52% 52% 47%
46% 42%
50% 40% 43% 43%
44%
40% 33% 33% 34% 34% 38%40%
28% 29% 26% 26%
30% 24% 23% 25%
18% 17% 21% 19% 19% 20%
19% 18% 18% 15%
20% 11% 13% 13% 15% 12% 17% 14% 14% 14% 16% 17% 15%
7% 7% 14%
10%
0%
2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 4Q05 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 4Q07 2Q08 4Q08
Companies beating expectations Companies meeting expectations
Companies coming below expectations
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
Revision ratio
The revision ratio (number of forecasts revised upwards vs. number of forecasts
revised downwards) improved from 0.43x in 4Q08 to 0.6x in 1Q09. This is a
considerable improvement and means that earnings momentum is not so negative
that downgrades overwhelm upgrades. As the ratio has improved after staying within
the 0.3-0.4x range for the previous three results seasons, it suggests that analysts’
earnings numbers are beginning to catch up with reality. However, we do note that
the ratio remains well below 1x, the level at which the earnings upgrade momentum
turns positive.
[ 2 ]
3. Figure 4: Revisions up/revisions down (x)
2.00
1.80
Positive momentum for market
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60 Negative momentum for market
0.40
0.20
0.00
3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
KLCI EPS growth
The yoy EPS growth rate for the KLCI fallen from the 20-30% range in 2006-early 08
to -27% in 4Q08 and an even worse -36% in 1Q. On qoq basis, the EPS compression
improved from 10.6% in 4Q08 to 4.9% in 1Q09. Sectors that pulled down qoq
earnings in 4Q were autos, building materials, industrial, insurance, plantations and
technology. The previous negative trend in 2005/6 lasted five straight quarters from
1Q05 to 1Q06. Should it last just as long this time, EPS growth would only return to
positive territory in 3Q09, meaning that we could see one more quarter of earnings
slippage.
Figure 5: Qoq and yoy growth rates in core EPS for Bursa sample
40.0%
Strong rebound in EPS 29.9% 30.9%
30.0% 25.6% 27.6% 27.2%
25.9% 22.8%
18.3%
20.0% 14.0%
10.6% 12.6% 11.0%
6.8% 7.8%
10.0% 22.5%
1.6% 0.4%
-2.2%
0.0%
-10.0% -5.3% -3.0% 4.3% -3.9% -4.9%
-6.3%
-8.7% -7.2% -8.4% -9.0%-10.6%
-20.0% -13.2%
-14.6%
-19.7%
Q-o-Q change
-30.0% Y-o-Y change -27.4%
-35.9%
-40.0%
KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI
1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
Change in our estimates
The three-month period including the May results season was actually positive, a big
reversal from previous results seasons. While our 0.6% upgrade of 2009 core EPS is
marginal, it is nonetheless significant as it is the first upward revision since the Feb 08
results season. FY10 EPS was raised a higher 3.3%. In total, we upped our forecasts
for eight companies (11 in Feb), i.e. Maybank, Hong Leong Bank, Kurnia Asia, MPI,
Lafarge M Cement, Axiata, AirAsia and Tenaga (see Appendix).
The number of companies which saw earnings downgrades eased from 30 in Feb to
23, i.e. Proton, UMW, Sime Darby, B Toto, Dreamgate, Tanjong, MTD-ACPI, Astro,
NST, MCIL, Star, Dialog, Petra Perdana, Hap Seng Plantations, IOI Corp, KL
Kepong, SP Setia, Telekom, BAT, Bintulu Port, MISC, Maybulk and Suria Cap.
[ 3 ]
4. Figure 6: Qoq change in our KLCI earnings estimates for CY09 and CY10 post results seasons
21.0%
CY09 CY10
9.0%
3.3%
0.6%
-3.0%
-4.3%
-7.2% -6.8%
-15.0% -13.3%
End Nov 2008 End Feb 2009 End May 2009
1Q05 results
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
Sectoral changes in EPS
Looking at the sectoral changes for reported profits, the numbers were still mixed.
CY09 reported earnings were cut for eight (10 previously) out of 18 categories.
Earnings were reduced the most for the auto, media and transport sectors. We upped
our forecasts for six sectors, the same as before, with the main earnings upgrades
coming from technology and banking. For CY10, we scaled back our earnings
numbers for four sectors while raising them for eight categories.
Figure 7: Sector changes in reported EPS post 1Q09*
CY09 CY10 Comments
Automotive -38% -18% Lower sales volume but margin improved
Banking & Finance 3% 2% Higher LLP and decline in non-interest income
Building materials -1% 4% Lower domestic demand but better ASPs
Conglomerates -2% 2% Strong plantation and industrial earnings
Food & Beverage 0% 0% Defensive topline, but rising raw material costs
Gaming -4% -3% Genting's numbers revised down for taxes & MI
Industrial 3% 0% Demand for rubber gloves to remain resilient
Infrastructure 1% 1% Pump priming to intensify in 2H09
Insurance 185% -100% Improved investment income and lower claims ratio.
Media -10% -8% Greater earnings risks for newspaper companies
Oil & Gas -3% -3% Players enjoy recovery in demand not just locally
Plantations 1% 1% Lower CPO price and FFB yield
Property 0% 0% Margin squeeze due to high material costs
Technology 5% 5% Raised numbers for semicon players
Telco -1% 0% Axiata exceeded expectations, TM and DiGi in line
Tobacco 0% 0% Industry prospects continue to be pressured
Transport & Logistics -8% 3% Shipping revised down, AirAsia revised up
Utilities 0% 0% Adjust earnings for lower coal consumption
* based on 1-month change in earnings from Apr 09 to May 09
Source: CIMB estimates
CIMB’s core net profit estimates
2009 core net profit forecasts have been relatively stable since the last results season
in Feb and have started to creep up on a monthly basis. This reprieve from the
relentless cuts seen in the past year is reassuring. The raising of earnings forecasts
estimates is more pronounced for 2010, which indicates that analysts are increasingly
confident that earnings prospects will improve next year. Consensus forecasts for
2009, however, have continued to fall, with May being the lowest figure so far.
[ 4 ]
6. Figure 11: Consensus CY10 EPS estimates (indexed)
100.0
95.0
90.0
85.0
80.0
75.0
70.0
65.0
60.0
Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09
Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates
CIMB vs. consensus estimates
We are forecasting EPS to fall by nearly 6% in CY09, slightly lower than consensus
forecast of closer to 7%. We also expect EPS to rebound a stronger 19% against
consensus’s 12%. We were ahead of the curve when it came to 2009 earnings cuts
over the past year and we may again be ahead of the curve in terms of earnings
upgrades, particularly for 2010.
Figure 12: CIMB vs. consensus EPS growth
CY09 CY10
CIMB -5.7% 19.0%
Consensus -6.6% 12.3%
CIMB/consensus (x) 1.01 1.06
Source: CIMB estimates, Bloomberg estimates
Net profit to GDP growth ratio
The KLCI net profit growth to nominal GDP growth ratio for 2009 appears to be in
positive territory. This is because both net profit and GDP are forecast to contract. For
2010, GDP growth is expected to recover to 3.5% but we expect core EPS growth to
jump to 19%. Although the net profit to GPD ratio appears high, we believe the figure
is achievable as the same pattern was seen in 1999 after two consecutive years of
earnings contraction.
Figure 13: KLCI net profit growth to nominal GDP growth ratio (x)
9.0
8.0 2009 GDP and EPS both negative, 2010 EPS
8.0 forecast to rebound
7.0 1997-2000 exceptional years, throws out the
6.0 ratios (big -ve in 1998)
Ratio in negative territory for first time 4.8
5.0
Ratio (x)
3.6 3.8 since Asian crisis
4.0
2.7 2.8
3.0 2.2
1.7 1.5 1.9
2.0 1.5 1.2 1.4
0.9
1.0 0.1 0.4 0.2
0.0
-1.0 (0.7)
(0.9)
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009E
(49.5)
Source: Company, CIMB estimates, BNM
GDP growth
The external headwinds hit the economy with full force in 1Q09, with real GDP pulling
back 6.2% yoy. This is the steepest decline since 4Q98 when GDP fell 11.2%. The
first quarter GDP contraction came in worse than our (-5.0% to -5.5%) and market
expectations (-3.5%). On a qoq basis, output declined by 7.7% in 1Q09 (-3.4% qoq in
[ 6 ]
7. 4Q08).
Domestic demand shrank 2.9% yoy in 1Q09, with private consumption posting a small
decline of 0.7%, the slowest pace since 1Q99 (-2.7%). The spike in retrenchments
and deteriorating labour market conditions led to concerns over job security and an
erosion of consumer confidence. Fixed investment sank 10.8% for the second
consecutive quarter in 1Q09 (-10.2% in 4Q08) as private investment plummeted in
reaction to the fast-deteriorating global demand. Public development spending was
higher.
The global demand slump was a serious drag on GDP, with exports tumbling 15.2%
yoy in 1Q09. Sluggish export income dented consumption and investment. However,
given a sharper fall of 23.5% for imports, net exports added 6.1% pts to 1Q09’s GDP
growth. Large inventory drawdown subtracted 9.7% pts from 1Q09’s GDP.
The manufacturing sector suffered the biggest contraction of 17.6% yoy in 1Q09,
largely dragged down by the slump in electronics demand and falling domestic
demand. The services sector eased 0.1%, reflecting the sharp pullback in trade-
related services. Mining contracted 5.2% while the agriculture sector shrank 4.3% yoy
respectively. Only the construction sector was in positive territory with a small growth
of 0.6% yoy, due to increased office space and high-end residential development.
In our opinion, 1Q09 is the trough in terms of the GDP growth fallout. Judging from
some tentative “green shoots” emerging in major economies and some sequential
improvements in domestic loan indicators, industrial output, exports and leading
indicators, we expect smaller declines in GDP of 2.5-4.5% in 2Q-3Q before a return to
1-2% growth in 4Q. As such, we continue to project a real GDP contraction of 3.0%
for 2009. For 2010, we expect the economy to bounce back 3.5%, underpinned by the
recovery of exports and the follow-through impact of fiscal spending and monetary
easing.
Figure 14: Quarterly real GDP growth vs. KLCI
1,600 Forecast period: quarterly GDP growth rates 15.0
(RHS) stable
1,400
10.0
1,200
5.0
1,000
KLCI level
% change
800 0.0
600
KLCI (LHS) (5.0)
400
(10.0)
200
0 (15.0)
1Q92 3Q93 1Q95 3Q96 1Q98 3Q99 1Q01 3Q02 1Q04 3Q05 1Q07 3Q08
Source: Company, CIMB estimates, BNM
Valuations and recommendations
We upgraded Malaysia from neutral to OVERWEIGHT in early Apr after staying
cautious for 13 months following the 8 Mar 2008 shocking general elections results
and the subsequent global credit and financial meltdown. Our upgrade was premised
on three key catalysts: 1) improving odds of a regional rebound on the back of
aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, 2) likely stronger-than-expected political
succession effect from the ascension of Dato’ Sri Najib Razak as the 6th prime
minister, and 3) potential reversal of foreign funds net selling, which pushed foreign
ownership in Malaysia to very depressed levels.
Recall that we have been recommending investors to accumulate positions in 2Q due
to 1) the expected poor results season in May due to the high base effect in 1Q08 and
anticipated weak earnings for 1Q09 and 2) negative newsflow on the economic front
including a sharp contraction in 1Q09 GDP. We were only partially right on the first
count as 1Q09 results turned out to be not as bad as feared and did not present any
major shocks or earnings downgrades. This means that there is a good chance we
are past the worst as upcoming quarters may be more balanced and EPS cuts could
have bottomed out. Fundamentally, this is hugely positive for the market.
[ 7 ]
8. Although we were right on the second count as real GDP fell 6.2% vs. consensus
estimate of 3-4% contraction, the market took the bad news in its stride. The KLCI, in
fact, rebounded a day after the government announced its new 2009 GDP forecast of
a steeper 4-5% contraction. This is an indication of how far market confidence has
improved in the past two months. We continue to believe the gradual redeployment of
excess cash held by domestic and foreign institutional funds will sustain the market
rebound in 2H09. Also, we expect core EPS to expand a robust 19% in 2010 after
falling 5.7% in 2009.
In view of the better-than-expected 1Q results season, continued positive newsflow
from the PM’s first 100 days in office and the return of foreign funds, we upgrade our
year-end KLCI target from 1,060 points to 1,220 points after removing the 10%
discount to its 3-year moving average P/E of 15x. We believe our new target is not
overly aggressive as it is equivalent to the mid-cycle P/E and P/BV for the KLCI. At
1,220 points, the KLCI would trade at 1.9x P/BV, which is still at a 25% discount to its
Dec 07 highs of close to 2.5x.
However, we do not expect the market’s ascent to be a smooth one as the rebound
so far has been faster and stronger than we expected. The market needs to catch its
breath and a significant pullback is long overdue. Nonetheless, domestic catalysts
from the succession effect and huge pools of liquidity not yet deployed by local and
foreign funds should keep the medium-term momentum strong, at least in 2H09. If
1Q09 results are indeed the worst for the market, fundamentals could sustain the
market longer than expectations.
Figure 15: KLCI’s 12M forward core P/E (x) and standard deviation
22.0
20.0 KLCI's actual PER, now at 14.1 12M forward
+3 S.D.
18.0
16.0 +2 S.D.
P/E (x)
+1 S.D.
14.0
-1 S.D.
12.0
-2 S.D.
10.0
8.0 -3 S.D.
3-year moving avg = 15.1x
6.0
Nov-03 Jul-04 Mar-05 Nov-05 Jul-06 Mar-07 Nov-07 Jul-08 Mar-09
Source: CIMB estimates
Figure 16: KLCI’s historical P/BV (x)
2.5
1.9x
2.2
1.9
1.6
1.3
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
Source: CIMB estimates
Sectors to overweight
Our preferred sectors are mostly cyclical sectors such as construction, property and
oil & gas. Although the gaming sector does not fit the bill of high-beta sectors, it
remains one of our favourites as valuations are attractive. We have taken the telco
sector off our list after the downgrades of Telekom and DiGi. Furthermore, being a
defensive and high-dividend yielding sector, it is likely to lag behind in the market
rebound.
[ 8 ]
9. • Construction – We maintain our TRADING BUY stance on the construction
sector as the recent stimulus packages for infrastructure worth over RM20bn raise
expectations of a sector recovery. The political transition is another positive factor
for the sector as it could lead to policy measures aimed at reviving construction
activities. We expect pump priming to intensify in 2H09. The continued softening of
raw material prices will cap the deterioration in earnings and lead to a margin
recovery, although the impact will not be immediate.
• Gaming – The domestic casino segment remains resilient despite recessionary
fears. The continued uptrend in casino patronage reflects the operator's emphasis
on yield. Other catalysts include potential regional acquisitions and improved
capital management initiatives on the back of a huge cash hoard. The mature NFO
sub-sector is expected to sustain its single-digit growth trend, buoyed by its low
entry point, the gaming habit and increasing popularity of lotto games. Sustainable
dividend yields of circa 8% remain a key attraction. Gaming stocks are also
expected to be beneficiaries of higher weightings following the shift to the FBM
KLCI benchmark on 6 Jul.
• Oil & gas – We remain OVERWEIGHT on the oil & gas sector. Rising crude oil
price spurs exploration and production activities, which, in turn, increase the
demand for service providers. Most of Malaysia's listed oil & gas companies are
service providers. We expect local and regional newsflow to pick up in the coming
months, fuelling the replenishment of service providers' order books, of which a
few are already at record levels. Companies with strategic assets, i.e. drilling rigs,
pipelay barges, AHTS vessels and fabrication yards, are expected to enjoy high
utilisation rates.
• Property – Despite the very challenging environment for properties, property
shares should outperform as they tend to move in tandem with the stockmarket,
but with higher swings on both the downside and upside. We believe they could
outperform in this rebound as the sector was the worst-performing sector last year.
Many property stocks, in fact, are still down more than 50% from their peaks and
are trading at steep discounts to RNAV and book values. The sector is a
TRADING BUY and our preferred pick is SP Setia for its astute management, size
and liquidity.
Figure 17: Sector reported net profit (including exceptional items) and related valuations
Reported earnings growth (%) P/E (x) P/NTA (x) ROE (%) Div yld (%)
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY09 CY09 CY10 CY09
Automobiles and Parts 47.2% -47.0% 63.6% 9.4 21.2 13.0 0.8 4.0% 6.4% 3.8%
Conglomerates 30.2% -29.1% 21.9% 11.6 19.5 16.0 1.9 9.9% 11.5% 4.2%
Construction and Materials 33.7% -8.6% 22.4% 12.0 15.6 12.8 1.7 10.8% 13.2% 3.6%
Consumer -36.1% 21.1% 4.6% 15.4 15.1 14.4 6.4 42.2% 43.8% 7.8%
Financial Services -6.1% 2.2% 18.9% 10.9 12.7 10.7 1.5 12.2% 13.1% 5.7%
Forestry and Paper -13.7% -12.8% 7.9% 3.3 4.5 4.2 0.3 7.8% 7.8% 5.8%
Industrial Goods and Services11.7% -21.0% 21.8% 6.4 9.7 8.0 1.4 15.7% 16.8% 3.1%
Infrastructure -43.8% 5.3% 6.5% 13.8 15.6 14.6 2.9 18.8% 20.0% 6.6%
Media 19.6% 18.5% 22.8% 16.9 17.0 13.8 2.2 13.4% 15.7% 5.4%
Oil and Gas -33.5% 20.5% 7.0% 11.9 11.8 11.0 1.3 12.1% 11.3% 5.7%
Oil Equipment and Services 73.6% -6.0% 14.5% 8.9 11.3 9.9 2.7 24.5% 26.8% 2.7%
Plantations 24.2% -32.9% 29.4% 11.7 20.7 16.0 2.4 13.7% 14.3% 2.6%
Property -21.3% 2.2% 7.7% 13.0 15.2 14.1 1.0 6.4% 6.6% 4.5%
Technology -33.3% -50.0% 54.7% 10.3 24.5 15.8 1.3 5.3% 8.1% 4.6%
Telecommunications -53.5% 5.1% 20.7% 14.2 16.1 13.3 1.8 11.8% 13.4% 12.8%
Transportation -58.5% 11.3% 57.1% 18.9 20.2 12.9 1.5 6.9% 11.1% 4.5%
Travel and Leisure 18.3% -22.0% 2.2% 9.6 14.7 14.4 1.8 12.9% 11.9% 2.7%
Utilities -39.6% 2.3% 24.1% 12.0 14.0 11.3 1.4 11.2% 11.2% 3.3%
Note: Numbers may not be comparable to KLCI data presented earlier as these numbers include exceptionals and non-KLCI companies
Source: CIMB estimates
Figure 18: KLCI statistics
KLCI Statistics (@ 1044) 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
P/E (x, pre-EI) 15.7 16.9 12.4 15.6 12.7
P/E (x, after EI) 14.3 16.0 13.6 15.6 12.7
P/E (x, core) 16.7 17.7 12.1 15.2 12.8
Core EPS growth (% ) 19.2% 24.3% -10.9% -5.7% 19.0%
P/BV (x) 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.6
Dividend yield (%) 5.3% 4.6% 6.1% 5.3% 5.1%
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 10.0 7.1 8.1 7.1
P/FCF (x, equity) 27.4 19.9 16.6 22.1 17.0
P/FCF (x, firm) 24.4 17.8 1,153.1 14.0 14.6
Net gearing (%) 33% 23% 30% 24% 20%
ROE (%, recurring) 13.2% 15.3% 12.9% 11.4% 12.6%
Source: CIMB estimates
[ 9 ]
10. Regional comparison
The resurgence of regional markets has reduced Malaysia’s P/E premium over the
region from 40-45% earlier in the year to 14-17%. Malaysia’s 2010 P/E is no longer
the highest in the region. Its EPS contraction in 2009 is slightly below average but
2010 is slightly above average. This puts Malaysia’s valuations broadly in line with the
region.
Figure 19: Regional comparisons as at end-May 09
Core P/E (x) Core EPS growth
2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010
HK ( CIMB coverage) 12.2 12.8 10.6 30.9% -5.4% 21.6%
JCI (ID) 12.0 12.5 11.1 6.4% -3.7% 12.9%
KLCI (MY) 12.1 15.3 12.8 -10.9% -5.7% 19.0%
FSSTI (SG) 14.0 17.1 13.6 -13.3% -17.8% 25.8%
SET (TH) 10.9 10.9 9.5 -4.4% -0.6% 14.4%
Simple Region x KL avg 12.3 13.3 11.2 4.9% -6.9% 18.7%
KLCI PER premium vs region 17.3% 14.8% 14.3%
Source: CIMB
Portfolio investment flows
Malaysia has suffered four consecutive quarters of outflows of portfolio investments.
The outflows were heaviest from 2Q08 to 4Q08. 1Q09 still saw an outflow but the
quantum has fallen substantially. We believe 2Q09 could reverse into positive territory
should the markets hold up in June as Apr already enjoyed a net inflow of foreign
funds, the first in 13 months.
Figure 20: Quarterly net portfolio fund flows into Malaysia
30,000
Highest quarterly inflow on record in 1Q07 = RM25.6bn
20,000
10,000
0
RM million
(10,000)1Q-95 1Q-96 1Q-97 1Q-98 1Q-99 1Q-00 1Q-01 1Q-02 1Q-03 1Q-04 1Q-05 1Q-06 1Q-07 1Q-08 1Q-09
(20,000)
(30,000)
Massive outflow in 4Q08= RM33.2bn
(40,000)
(50,000) Massive outflow in 3Q08= RM56.20bn
(60,000)
Source: BNM
Recommendation changes
For the first time in five quarters, we made almost as many recommendation
upgrades as downgrades. This is a major improvement and ties in with our upgrade of
Malaysia from neutral to Overweight on 2 Apr. After the upgrade, we also upgraded
the banking and property sectors as well as other high-beta stocks such as Bursa
Malaysia. Nonetheless, we made a sizeable number of downgrades as we
downgraded low-beta defensive sectors and stocks that have outperformed such as
the tobacco, brewery and consumer stocks. All in all, the number of stocks we
upgraded jumped to 13 (three leading up to Feb 09 and eight up to Nov 08) while the
number downgraded increased to 14 (11 leading up to Feb 09 and 16 up to Nov 08).
The downgrade to upgrade ratio was only to 1.1;1, against the lopsided 3.7:1 in Feb
08, 2:1 in Nov 08 and 8.25:1 in Aug 08.
[ 10 ]
11. Figure 21: Recommendation changes over past 3 months
Upgrades
Alliance Financial Group (N to O) - undemanding valuation and revival of loan growth in CY10.
Astro (U to TB) - Upgraded due to diminishing risks from Indonesia and minimal exposure to adex.
Axiata (N to O) - Overhang lifted, more positive view of Celcom and Idea.
Bursa Malaysia (U to TB) - Positive market outlook and higher tradin g value to spur earnings.
IOI Corp (U to N) - Easing forex loss concern and beneficiary of shift to new indices
Kurnia Asia (U to TB) - Better underlying surplus and investment income.
Lafarge M Cement (TB to O) - 1Q results beat expectations and we raised earinings forecasts and target prices.
Mah Sing (U to N) - Property stocks possess high-beta features and Mah Sing is one of the favourites in the sector.
Malayan Banking (U to N) - Strong earnings recovery in FY10 and better-than-expected loan growth and NPL ratio.
Sime Darby (U to TB) - Beneficiary of move to new in dices and potential M&As
SP Setia (U to TB) - Upgraded due to its status as the key proxy for the property sector due to its management, size and liq uidity.
Supermax (N to TB) - Upgraded due to improvement in prospects with the write-off of APLI, better-than-expected 1Q results and improving demand.
UM Land (U to TB) - Trading at steep discounts to RNAV and NTA.
Downgrades
ACPI (N to U) - Results were a big disappointment and we cut forecasts substantially.
BAT (N to U) - Unexciting growth prospects, coupled with shift of preference to higher-beta pla ys.
Bin tulu Port (O to N) - The stock's outperformance rela tive to KLCI could reverse due to its defensive qualities which are not favoured in rebounds.
Carlsberg Brewery (TS to U) - Lost the assurance of attractive dividends. Cost pressures continue to weigh down operations.
Dialog (OP to UP) - Limited upside to target price and demanding valuations
DiGi (O to N) - Slowing growth momentum from foreign worker and low-end prepaid users, and weaker net adds.
Hap Seng Plantations (N to U) - Share price outperformance after our recent upgrade has made valuations le ss attractive.
Imaspro Corp (N to U) - Subdued outlook as demand for herbicide/pesticid e is unlikely to pick up strongly after CPO price skid from its Mar 08 highs.
JT International (N to U) - Growth potential limited by tough operating environment, coupled with shift of preference to higher-beta plays.
MCI (N to U) - Earnin gs are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume.
Nestle (N to U) - Limited upside to target price and demanding valuations
NSTP (N to U) - Earnings are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume.
Star Publications (N to UP) - Earnings are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume.
Telekom (O to N) - Share price nearing our target price and lacks catalysts.
Source: CIMB estimates
Figure 22: Top picks
29/05/09 Tgt. Price Basis of P/E EPS P/NTA ROE Yld
Company (RM) (RM) Upside Target Price CY09 CY10 CAGR CY09 CY09 CY10 CY09
KLCI 1,044 1,220 16.8% 15x P/E 15.2 12.8 1.8% 1.7 11.4% 12.6% 5.3%
Big Caps (mkt cap >RM5bn)
Axiata 2.29 2.75 20.1% SOP based target price 11.9 11.2 -5.6% 1.8 8.6% 9.3% 0.0%
Berjaya Sports Toto 4.72 5.65 19.7% 5% discount to DDM 14.9 14.3 2.2% (36.3) 106.3% 92.9% 7.1%
Genting 5.45 6.80 24.8% 10% disc to SOP RNAV 16.8 18.1 -18.0% 2.1 8.6% 8.2% 1.3%
Public Bank 8.60 11.40 32.6% 2-stage DDM 12.2 10.1 12.8% 3.5 24.0% 25.6% 8.7%
Resorts 2.76 3.30 19.6% 10% disc to SOP RNAV 11.7 11.5 1.1% 1.6 14.8% 13.0% 2.6%
RHB Cap 4.10 5.22 27.3% 2-stage DDM 11.8 10.3 19.4% 2.0 9.3% 10.1% 3.4%
Tanjong 13.50 16.60 23.0% 20% discount to SOP 8.9 8.0 4.1% 1.5 17.8% 18.0% 7.0%
YTL Power 2.11 2.61 23.7% SOP value 11.9 10.3 3.2% 1.8 14.4% 15.7% 7.3%
Mid caps (mkt cap <RM5bn)
Air Asia 1.30 1.80 38.5% P/E 7x 5.2 5.1 95.0% 2.0 36.4% 27.1% 0.0%
Alliance Financial 2.17 2.40 10.6% 2-stage DDM 12.0 9.5 110.5% 1.3 10.0% 11.7% 2.5%
Kencana 1.84 2.41 31.0% 13.5x CY10 P/E 11.6 10.3 24.7% 6.6 58.5% 42.7% 0.8%
Lafarge MC 4.90 5.57 13.7% 13.5x P/E and 1.1x P/BV 11.4 9.6 9.4% 2.2 11.9% 13.6% 4.7%
SapCrest 1.46 1.87 28.1% 13.5 CY10 P/E 13.1 10.6 23.8% 1.5 10.4% 12.1% 4.1%
Tan Chong 1.70 2.00 17.6% 8x CY10 P/E 8.1 6.7 6.7% 0.7 9.5% 10.8% 5.9%
Top Glove 5.85 6.39 9.2% 10% disc to 13.5x P/E 12.65 11.5 16.2% 2.1 18.6% 17.3% 2.6%
Wah Seong 1.81 2.42 33.7% 13.5x CY10 P/E 8.9 8.0 10.7% 3.2 31.9% 34.1% 3.9%
Small caps (mkt cap < RM1bn)
Eksons 0.69 0.90 30.4% 0.5x Px/NTA 4.7 4.6 21.4% 0.4 8.3% 7.9% 5.9%
Kossan 3.50 4.98 42.3% 30% disc to 13.5x P/E 7.8 6.6 15.3% 1.5 21.0% 19.8% 3.0%
Petra Perdana 2.59 3.86 49.0% SOP value 12.3 5.9 34.1% 1.8 19.2% 26.3% 1.1%
QSR Brands 2.89 5.54 91.7% 16x CY10 P/E 9.2 8.4 13.5% 2.1 22.1% 24.3% 4.2%
Source: CIMB estimates
[ 11 ]
12. Figure 23: Top picks by category
GROWTH DIVIDENDS
Kencana B Sports Toto
Top Glov e Public Bank Tanjong
Air Asia Kossan SapuraCrest Eksons
Wah Seong Petra Perdana YTL Pow er
Ax iata Tan Chong
Lafarge Alliance Financial
Resorts QSR
Genting RHB Cap
UNDEMANDING
VALUATIONS
Source: CIMB estimates
Figure 24: Summary of earning outperformances / underperformances for stocks under coverage
Above expectations Below expectations
AirAsia Strong y ield AFG Bhd Higher impairment losses and LLP
Ax iata Stronger performance at Celcom & TMIB. Astro Higher than ex pected content cost
HL Bank Low er LLP and 5% rise in rev enue B Toto Poorer luck factor
Kurnia Better inv est. income & underw riting surplus Dialog Margin pressure at ov erseas units
Lafarge M Cement Boosted by better domestic & ex port prices Dreamgate Weak rev enue + still high costs
MAS Demand w eakening Genting Higher MI and tax es
May bank Higher LLP and low er inv estment income Hap Seng Plantation Low er FFB y ield
MPI Economic headw inds buffeted rev JobStreet Topline fared relativ ely w ell; margins below ex p
PLUS Strong traffic v olumes May bulk Low er dry bulk rates
Tenaga Low er-than-ex pected coal usage MCI Ltd Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume
Unisem Economy battered top line MISC Large liner losses, low er tanker rates
MTD ACPI India and Thai continue losses
NSTP Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume
Proton Higher operating and input costs.
Sime Darby Weak plantation and O&G
SP Setia Margin squeeze due to material costs
Star Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume
Suria Capital Weak port div ision and engineering div ision.
Tanjong Pow er and TI disappointed
Uchi Regulatory scheme affecting them
UMW Weak auto div ision
Within expectations
Tan Chong Affin AMMB Bursa EON Capital Public Bank RHB Capital nn Joo
A Carlsberg F&N Guinness
Nestle QSR Brands Eksons Asia File Kossan Pelikan Top Glove Wellcall Ekovest Gamuda IJM
LCL Puncak Niaga MRCB WCT Media Prima Kencana Petra Perdana etronas Dagangan Wah Seong
P Asiatic IOI Corp
KLK Hunza Prop KLCC PropertyDiGi.com Telekom BAT JTI Bintulu Port YTL Power Resorts
Source: CIMB estimates
[ 12 ]
13. Appendix: Companies’ 1Q09 results and comments
Company Period Deviation in ann. % growth in net profit Comments
Chg in EPS
core net profit vs. yoy qoq YTD
(forward yrs)
CIMB Consensus
Automotive
-142.9% for FY10, and -
Proton 4QFY09 nm nm 129 (17) (123) Higher operating and input costs.
76.4% for FY11
Tan Chong 1QFY09 19% 13% (23) 48 (23) None Expect weaker quarters ahead
UMW 1QFY09 39% 43% (53) (43) (53) -6% to -26% for FY09-11 Weak auto division
Banking & Finance
Affin 1QFY09 68% 54% (1) 9 (1) No change 30% drop in non-int. and 14.8% rise in LLP
Alliance 4QFY09 -28% -29% (99) (98) (40) No change Higher impairment losses and LLP
AMMB 4QFY09 1% 3% (17) (28) 29 No change Lower MI and 33% drop in LLP
Bursa 1QFY09 -60% -37% (63) 15 (63) No change 65% plunge in 1Q market trading value
EON Capital 1QFY09 86% 47% 4 (11) 4 No change 58% drop in LLP offsetting lower NIM
HL Bank 3QFY09 21% 16% 0 (20) 16 +10% Lower LLP and 5% rise in revenue
Maybank 3QFY09 13% -2% (34) (31) (19) 5% to 9% Higher LLP and lower investment income
RHB Capital 1QFY09 25% 4% 3 16 3 +2.1% RM20m write-back but LLP +15%
Building materials
Ann Joo 1QFY09 -154% -117% (140) (80) (140) No change Expect better quarters ahead.
Lafarge M C 1QFY09 107% 111% 47 2 47 4 to 7% Boosted by better domestic & export prices
Conglomerate
Sime Darby 3QFY09 -10% -20% (85) 116 (45) +2% to -7% for FY09-11 Weak plantation and O&G
Food & beverage
Carlsberg 1QFY09 7% 11% (19) 123 (19) No change Stronger on seasonal factors.
F&N 2QFY09 18% 14% 20 5 13 No change Soft drink sales gained from CNY timing
Guinness 3QFY09 12% 12% (10) (6) 8 No change Stronger on seasonal factors.
QSR Brands 1QFY09 -21% None (1) (7) (1) No change Same-store growth down on CNY timing
Gaming
B Toto 3QFY09 -10% -4% (1) (15) 5 -10% for FY09 Poorer luck factor
Dreamgate 1QFY09 -537% -385% (268) 114 (268) -7% to -22% Weak revenue + still high costs
Genting 1QFY09 -23% -12% (41) (63) (41) -4% to -6% Higher MI and taxes
Resorts 1QFY09 -14% -2% 3 (18) 3 -2% to -3% Expect seasonally stronger 2H
Tanjong 4QFY09 -15% -12% (53) (34) (8) -7% to -8% Power and TI disappointed
Industrial
Eksons 4QFY09 7% -12% (66) (40) (66) No change Weak plywood demand and prices
Asia File 4QFY09 3% -10% 60 183 60 No change Slow Europe and US sales growth
Kossan 1QFY09 -21% -22% 1 (11) 1 No change Expect improving earnings in future
Pelikan 1QFY09 2% -10% na (118) na No change Slowdown in Europe sales
Top Glove 2QFY09 2% 7% 28 4 22 No change Higher ASP and stronger USD
Wellcall 2QFY09 0% -10% (55) (44) 4 No change Demand slowdown due to global crisis
Infrastructure
MTD ACPI 4QFY09 -50% -56% 197 145 197 -40 To -44% India and Thai continue losses
Ekovest 3QFY09 -25% -25% (72) (38) (59) No change Diminishing orderbook
Gamuda 2QFY09 -23% -24% (46) (11) (42) No change Construction and property weakness
IJM 4QFY09 -0.01% -0.01% (24) (7) (1) No change Construction outlook improves
LCL 1QFY09 -5% -8% (251) (13) (251) No change Furthe provision for Dubai jobs
PLUS 1QFY09 +7% +1% 1 (6) 1 +1.8% to +1.9% Strong traffic volumes
Puncak Niaga 1QFY09 -98% -98% (86) (138) (86) No change Better quarters ahead from tariff hike
MRCB 1QFY09 -87% -97% (99) (101) (99) No change Construction and property to improve
WCT 1QFY09 +18% 0.16 (29) 6 (29) No change Expecting a weak 4Q
Insurance
Kurnia Asia 3QFY09 120% 156% na. na. na. +90% to +200% Better invt income & underwriting surplus
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
[ continued on the following page… ]
[ 13 ]
14. [ continued from the previous page… ]
Appendix: Companies’ 1Q09 results and comments (continued)
Company Period Deviation in ann. % growth in net profit Comments
Chg in EPS
Core net profit vs. yoy qoq YTD
(forward yrs)
CIMB Consensus
Media
Astro 4QFY09 -31% >+100% (116) 24 84 -30% to -65% Higher-than-expected content cost
Media Prima 1QFY09 -70.6% -85 (80) (91) (80) No change 1Q09 is usually the weakest
NSTP 1QFY09 <-100% <-100% (132) (140) (132) -30% Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume
MCI Ltd 4QFY09 -22% -16% (164) (113) 56 -23% to -27% Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume
Star 1QFY09 -60% -49% (57) (51) (57) -14% to -22% Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume
Oil & gas
Dialog 3QFY09 -25% -25% (7) (6) 4 -14% to -17% Margin pressure at overseas units
Kencana 2QFY09 -8% -4% 26 (18) 52 None KM1 contributes for the first full year
Petra Perdana 1QFY09 -49% -48% 4 188 4 -5% to -6% Expect stronger 2H due to a bigger fleet
Petronas Dagangan 4QFY09 3% -1% 3 305 (13) No change Margin improvement & volume recovery
Wah Seong 1QFY09 -22% -20% (10) 9 9 No change Expect more SSGP pipe shipments
Plantations
Asiatic 1QFY09 -34% -40% (68) 0 (68) No change Weak CPO price and output
Hap Seng Plantation 1QFY09 -60% -68% - (53) - - 5% for FY09 Lower FFB yield
IOI Corp 3QFY09 -1% -1% (58) (3) (30) 2% to -17% for FY09-11 Higher forex loss
KLK 2QFY09 1% 0% -52 -50 -36 - 5% for FY09 Weak CPO price and output
Property
+1.1% to +1.3% for FY09-
Hunza Prop 3QFY09 -4% -4% (40) (15) (52) Soft sales, but margins boost from Infinity
11
KLCC Property 4QFY09 3% 2% (2) (4) 4 No change Earnings growth from office and mall
SP Setia 1QFY09 -44% -47% (36) (37) (36) -5% to -31% Margin squeeze due to material costs
Technology
JobStreet 1QFY09 -18.2% -16.1% (47) (21) (47) -9% to -20% Topline fared relatively well; margins below exp
MPI 3QFY09 151% 122% (573) (911) (116) +47% to +148% Economic headwinds buffeted rev
Uchi 1QFY09 -32% 145% (53) (20) (53) -28% to -36% Regulatory scheme affecting them
Telecommunications
DiGi.com 1QFY09 -4% 3% (6) (2) (6) -0.03 Slowing rev growth and net adds
Axiata 1QFY09 -3% -6% (28) (1,424) (28) 7-10% Stronger performance at Celcom & TMIB.
Telekom 1QFY09 53% 50% (20) 65 (20) -2% to -14% Lower opex and weakness in broadband
Tobacco
BAT 1QFY09 -1% -1% (3) 19 (3) -1.8% to -2.7% for FY09-11 Impact from illicit trade and brand migration
JTI 1QFY09 28% 27% 7 251 7 No change Improved sales volu me.
Transportation
+8% FY09, +26% FY10,
AirAsia 1QFY09 20% 62% 603 16 (27) Strong yield
+19% FY11
Bintulu Port 1QFY09 27% 27% (3) 43 (3) -3.1% to -6.1% for FY09-10 Weaker 2H expected from dredging costs.
MISC 4QFY09 -7% -12% (73) (27) (37) -6% FY10, -5% FY11 Large liner losses, lower tanker rates
-30% FY09, -22% FY10, -
Maybulk 1QFY09 -73% -69% (86) 73 (96) Lower dry bulk rates
28% FY11
-187% for FY09, +25%
MAS 4QFY08 341% -32% (86) 130 (84) Demand weakening
FY10
Suria Capital 1QFY09 -20% -7% (16) 215 (16) -5% to -14% for FY09-11 Weak port division and engineering division.
Utilities
+2.2 to +4.6% increase in
Tenaga 2QFY09 16% 28% 3 60 (37) Lower-than-expected coal usage
FY09-11
YTL Power 3QFY09 -5% -9% (20) 3 (19) No changes Expect stronger quarters ahead
Source: Company, CIMB estimates
[ 14 ]
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(i) As of 2 June 2009, CIMB has a proprietary position in the following securities in this report:
(a) Axiata Group, Axiata Group CW, Bursa Malaysia, Bursa Malaysia CW, IOI Corp, IOI Corp CW, Maybank, Maybank CW, Sime Darby, Sime Darby CW, Dialog
Group, Star Publications, Telekom Malaysia, Berjaya Sports Toto, Berjaya Sports Toto Warrant, Genting, Genting CW, Public Bank, Public Bank CW,
Resorts World, Resorts World CW, RHB Capital, Tanjong, YTL Power, AirAsia, AirAsia CW, Kencana Petroleum, SapuraCrest Petroleum, Petra Perdana,
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(a) -.
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research report are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the
Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CGHK has no obligation to update its opinion or the
information in this research report.
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to the securities covered in this report, which is directed at, or the contents of which are likely to be accessed or read by, the public in Hong Kong (except if permitted to
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date hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a
recipient, our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB-GKI has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB-GKI. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will
remain confidential. No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied, duplicated, stored or reproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on,
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market laws and regulations.
Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed by CIMB Investment Bank Berhad (“CIMB”). The views and opinions in this research report are our own as of the date
hereof and are subject to change. If the Financial Services and Markets Act of the United Kingdom or the rules of the Financial Services Authority apply to a recipient,
our obligations owed to such recipient therein are unaffected. CIMB has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this research report.
This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of CIMB. This publication is being supplied to you strictly on the basis that it will remain
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