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STRATEGY

                                                                                                                                                        2 June 2009
CIMB Research Report




                                                                                                                                                                      MALAYSIA
                                                                                                                   OVERWEIGHT                            Maintained
1Q09 results round-up                                                                                                    1,044                           @29/05/09
Not as bad as feared, worst over?                                                                                                             Target Index: 1,220




           KLCI INDEX                          Terence Wong, CFA +60 (3) 2084-9689 – terence.wong@cimb.com


                                              • Not as bad as feared. Poor though the results were, the May results season was
                                                not as bad as feared. In fact, there were reasons to be encouraged. The revision
                                                ratio improved from 0.43x in Feb 09 to 0.6x, meaning that the earnings downgrade
                                                momentum is not as lopsided as before. Some 60% of companies met
                                                expectations (43% previously) and 25% failed to deliver (40% before). 15% did
                                                better than expected, a slight pullback from 17% during the Feb results season. In
                                                terms of sector performance, six disappointed while only two were above
                                                expectations.
                                              • EPS forecast surprisingly raised. More significant than the actual number of
                                                companies that surpassed or missed expectations is the fact that 2009 and 2010
                                                EPS have been raised, rather than cut. This is a pleasant surprise. Since the Feb
                                                results season, 2009 EPS contraction has been reduced from 8% to around 6%
                                                while 2010 EPS growth has been raised from 16% to 19%. Upgrades came largely
                                                from the plantation sector due to firm CPO prices, as well as big caps such as
                                                Axiata and Maybank, which more than offset letdowns from smaller caps.
                                              • The worst could be over. In our Apr strategy when we upgraded Malaysia to
                                                Overweight, we thought 2Q could provide a buying opportunity due to 1) the
                                                expected poor results season, and 2) announcement of a sharp contraction in
                                                1Q09 GDP. We were only partially right on the first count as 1Q09 results have
                                                turned out to be not as bad as expected and did not present any major shocks or
                                                earnings downgrades. This means that there is a good chance we are past the
                                                worst as upcoming quarters may be more balanced and EPS cuts could have
                                                bottomed out. Fundamentally, this is hugely positive for the market.
                                              • New KLCI target of 1,220. Although our economics team was spot on about 1Q
                                                GDP being weak – it sank 6.2% – the market took the bad news in its stride. This
                                                is an indication of how far market confidence has improved in the past two
                                                months. We continue to believe the gradual reinvestment of institutional funds’
                                                spare cash will sustain the market rebound in 2H09. In view of the better-than-
                                                expected 1Q results season, continued positive newsflow during PM Dato’ Sri
                                                Najib Razak’s first 100 days in office and the gradual return of foreign funds to the
                                                market, we upgrade our year-end KLCI target from 1,060 to 1,220 points after
                                                removing the 10% discount to its 3-year moving average P/E of 15x. We maintain
                                                our OVERWEIGHT stance on Malaysia and our preference for cyclical bombed-
                                                out sectors including construction, building materials, property and oil & gas.

 Figure 1: 1Q09 results by sector and for the KLCI
                              Rec                 1 Q0 9 pe rforma nce              Res ul ts vs.    Comme nts
                                                qoq cha nge     yoy cha nge      e xpec ta tions
 A uto motive                 NEUTRA L               -3 4. 8%        -8 9.0 %             B elow     Lo we r sa les vo lume a nd ma rgin p ressure fr FX.
 B an king & Fin an ce        NEUTRA L               -1 8. 5%        -2 1.5 %              In line   Expe cting furth er incre ase in cred it costs
 B uilding m ate rials        OVE RW EIG HT        -149. 5%          -6 6.9 %              In line   Bet ter AS Ps a nd expe ct dem and to imp rove in 2H
 Food & b evera ge            NEUTRA L                1 7. 2%            2.6%              In line   Rising cost p ressures m itiga ted by dece nt d ivid en ds
 G am in g                    OVE RW EIG HT          -4 3. 4%        -2 6.7 %             B elow     Ca sino in lin e but NFO affecte d b y luck
 In du stria l                OVE RW EIG HT         26 3. 1%         -1 1.2 %             B elow     Ma rg ins susta ina ble
 In frastructu re             TRADING BUY             -0. 6%         -2 7.1 %              In line   Expe ct pu mp p rim in g to pick u p
 In surance                   TRADING BUY                 NM        -20 3.9%             A bove      Bet ter invest ment in com e a nd imp rovin g cla ims ratio
 M ed ia                      NEUTRA L               -7 1. 7%       -18 9.0%              B elow     Ad volum e co uld de ce lerate
 O il & gas                   OVE RW EIG HT         10 6. 7%             2.7%              In line   Ben eficiary of recovery in cru de oil price
 P lanta tion s               UNDERW EIGHT           -2 4. 2%        -5 6.2 %              In line   Expe ct be tte r earn in gs in futu re q uarte rs
 P ro pe rtie s               TRADING BUY            -1 8. 4%         -1 9.2 %            B elow     Ma rg in sq uee ze f or de velop ers
 Techn olog y                 NEUTRA L             -264. 9%         -17 1.5%               In line   Sem icon s we re a bo ve ; Uchi a nd Jobstre et belo w
 Tele comm unica tio ns       NEUTRA L                9 7. 0%        -1 9.1 %              In line   Axiata be at expectatio ns, DiGi a nd TM in lin e
 Toba cco                     UNDERW EIGHT            3 1. 0%          -1.4%               In line   We ak volume and tou gh er op eratin g e nviro nme nt.
 Tran spo rt & log istics     UNDERW EIGHT              0. 4%        -6 1.3 %             B elow     Ship ping be low, A irAsia abo ve
 Utilit ie s                  NEUTRA L                4 3. 0%          -3.3%             A bove      Lo we r-th an-e xpect ed coal u sage
 Source: Company, CIMB estimates


                                          Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
Analysis of May reporting season
                                     Although the May corporate results season was poor, there were some bright spots.
                                     Out of the 75 companies that we track, only 25% fell short of expectations, a big
                                     improvement on the 40% that failed to deliver in Feb. The percentage of companies
                                     that outdid expectations, however, edged down from 17% to 15% while the proportion
                                     of those that lived up to expectations jumped from 43% to 60%. The number of
                                     sectors that missed the mark fell from seven to six, i.e. auto, gaming, media, oil & gas,
                                     plantations and property. Again, no sector performed convincingly above expectations
                                     though defensive sectors such as telco and utilities again performed commendably.

Figure 2: 1Q09 results vs. our forecasts
Sector                                    Vs. our forecasts                                                                             %
                                  Above           In line              Below              Total                   Above           In line           Below
Automotive                            0                 1                  2                 3                        0                 33             67
Banking & Finance                     2                 6                  1                 9                       22                 67             11
Buildings materials                   1                 1                  0                 2                       50                 50              0
Conglomerates                         0                 0                  1                 1                        0                  0            100
Food & beverage                       0                 5                  0                 5                        0               100               0
Gaming                                0                 1                  4                 5                        0                 20             80
Industrial                            0                 6                  0                 6                        0               100               0
Infrastructure                        1                   7                   1                9                        11             78               11
Insurance                             1                   0                   0                1                       100              0                0
Media                                 0                   1                   4                5                         0            20                80
Oil & gas                             0                   4                   1                5                         0            80                20
Plantations                           0                   3                   1                4                         0            75                25
Properties                            0                   2                   1                3                         0            67                33
Technology                            2                   2                   0                4                        50            50                 0
Telecommunications                    1                   2                   0                3                        33            67                 0
Tobacco                               0                   2                   0                2                         0           100                 0
Transport & logistics                 2                   1                   3                6                        33            17                50
Utilities                             1                  1                    0                2                        50             50                0
Total                                11                 45                   19               75                        15             60               25
Source: Company, CIMB estimates


                                     Figure 3: Performance relative to expectations in the reporting seasons


                                          80%
                                                75% 71%                                       69%
                                          70%                                                              63%         63% 71%               63%                     60%
                                                                         59%                                                     56% 59%
                                          60%                 54% 53%             52%                            52%                                    47%
                                                                                        46%                                                        42%
                                          50%                          40%                          43%                                                        43%
                                                                                                                                                     44%
                                          40%                    33%                33% 34%          34%                                                     38%40%
                                                                              28%                      29%         26% 26%
                                          30%                                                  24%                           23%             25%
                                                     18% 17%                        21%              19% 19% 20%
                                                                                              19% 18%                18% 15%
                                          20%         11% 13%           13% 15%            12%             17% 14%         14% 14% 16% 17% 15%
                                                7%                7%                                               14%
                                          10%
                                          0%
                                                2Q04    4Q04       2Q05        4Q05                 2Q06         4Q06     2Q07       4Q07        2Q08         4Q08
                                                  Companies beating expectations                                  Companies meeting expectations
                                                  Companies coming below expectations


                                     Source: Company, CIMB estimates




                                     Revision ratio
                                     The revision ratio (number of forecasts revised upwards vs. number of forecasts
                                     revised downwards) improved from 0.43x in 4Q08 to 0.6x in 1Q09. This is a
                                     considerable improvement and means that earnings momentum is not so negative
                                     that downgrades overwhelm upgrades. As the ratio has improved after staying within
                                     the 0.3-0.4x range for the previous three results seasons, it suggests that analysts’
                                     earnings numbers are beginning to catch up with reality. However, we do note that
                                     the ratio remains well below 1x, the level at which the earnings upgrade momentum
                                     turns positive.




                                                                                  [ 2 ]
Figure 4: Revisions up/revisions down (x)

   2.00
   1.80
                                                                   Positive momentum for market
   1.60
   1.40
   1.20
   1.00
   0.80
   0.60                                                                            Negative momentum for market
   0.40
   0.20
   0.00
           3Q03        1Q04       3Q04   1Q05     3Q05     1Q06    3Q06     1Q07     3Q07     1Q08       3Q08     1Q09



Source: Company, CIMB estimates




KLCI EPS growth
The yoy EPS growth rate for the KLCI fallen from the 20-30% range in 2006-early 08
to -27% in 4Q08 and an even worse -36% in 1Q. On qoq basis, the EPS compression
improved from 10.6% in 4Q08 to 4.9% in 1Q09. Sectors that pulled down qoq
earnings in 4Q were autos, building materials, industrial, insurance, plantations and
technology. The previous negative trend in 2005/6 lasted five straight quarters from
1Q05 to 1Q06. Should it last just as long this time, EPS growth would only return to
positive territory in 3Q09, meaning that we could see one more quarter of earnings
slippage.

Figure 5: Qoq and yoy growth rates in core EPS for Bursa sample

    40.0%
                                    Strong rebound in EPS                           29.9% 30.9%
    30.0%                                              25.6% 27.6%            27.2%
                                                                  25.9% 22.8%
                                                 18.3%
    20.0%                                                                  14.0%
                                                    10.6%            12.6%                    11.0%
                6.8%                                                              7.8%
    10.0%                                    22.5%
                                         1.6%                                           0.4%
                         -2.2%
      0.0%

   -10.0% -5.3%                 -3.0%               4.3%                                    -3.9%               -4.9%
                                                              -6.3%
                      -8.7% -7.2%        -8.4%                                                      -9.0%-10.6%
   -20.0%          -13.2%
                                                                                                      -14.6%
                                  -19.7%
                                       Q-o-Q change
   -30.0%                              Y-o-Y change                                                         -27.4%
                                                                                                                   -35.9%
   -40.0%
              KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI
              1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09


Source: Company, CIMB estimates




Change in our estimates
The three-month period including the May results season was actually positive, a big
reversal from previous results seasons. While our 0.6% upgrade of 2009 core EPS is
marginal, it is nonetheless significant as it is the first upward revision since the Feb 08
results season. FY10 EPS was raised a higher 3.3%. In total, we upped our forecasts
for eight companies (11 in Feb), i.e. Maybank, Hong Leong Bank, Kurnia Asia, MPI,
Lafarge M Cement, Axiata, AirAsia and Tenaga (see Appendix).
The number of companies which saw earnings downgrades eased from 30 in Feb to
23, i.e. Proton, UMW, Sime Darby, B Toto, Dreamgate, Tanjong, MTD-ACPI, Astro,
NST, MCIL, Star, Dialog, Petra Perdana, Hap Seng Plantations, IOI Corp, KL
Kepong, SP Setia, Telekom, BAT, Bintulu Port, MISC, Maybulk and Suria Cap.




                                         [ 3 ]
Figure 6: Qoq change in our KLCI earnings estimates for CY09 and CY10 post results seasons

 21.0%


                                                                                   CY09            CY10
   9.0%
                                                                                                       3.3%
                                                                                          0.6%

  -3.0%
                                                                           -4.3%
                                        -7.2%                 -6.8%

 -15.0%            -13.3%
                        End Nov 2008                             End Feb 2009                End May 2009

     1Q05 results
Source: Company, CIMB estimates




Sectoral changes in EPS
Looking at the sectoral changes for reported profits, the numbers were still mixed.
CY09 reported earnings were cut for eight (10 previously) out of 18 categories.
Earnings were reduced the most for the auto, media and transport sectors. We upped
our forecasts for six sectors, the same as before, with the main earnings upgrades
coming from technology and banking. For CY10, we scaled back our earnings
numbers for four sectors while raising them for eight categories.

Figure 7: Sector changes in reported EPS post 1Q09*
                                  CY09 CY10 Comments
Automotive                        -38% -18% Lower sales volume but margin improved
Banking & Finance                   3%    2% Higher LLP and decline in non-interest income
Building materials                 -1%    4% Lower domestic demand but better ASPs
Conglomerates                      -2%    2% Strong plantation and industrial earnings
Food & Beverage                     0%    0% Defensive topline, but rising raw material costs
Gaming                             -4%   -3% Genting's numbers revised down for taxes & MI
Industrial                          3%    0% Demand for rubber gloves to remain resilient
Infrastructure                      1%    1% Pump priming to intensify in 2H09
Insurance                         185% -100% Improved investment income and lower claims ratio.
Media                             -10%   -8% Greater earnings risks for newspaper companies
Oil & Gas                          -3%   -3% Players enjoy recovery in demand not just locally
Plantations                         1%    1% Lower CPO price and FFB yield
Property                            0%    0% Margin squeeze due to high material costs
Technology                          5%    5% Raised numbers for semicon players
Telco                              -1%    0% Axiata exceeded expectations, TM and DiGi in line
Tobacco                             0%    0% Industry prospects continue to be pressured
Transport & Logistics              -8%    3% Shipping revised down, AirAsia revised up
Utilities                           0%    0% Adjust earnings for lower coal consumption
* based on 1-month change in earnings from Apr 09 to May 09
Source: CIMB estimates




CIMB’s core net profit estimates
2009 core net profit forecasts have been relatively stable since the last results season
in Feb and have started to creep up on a monthly basis. This reprieve from the
relentless cuts seen in the past year is reassuring. The raising of earnings forecasts
estimates is more pronounced for 2010, which indicates that analysts are increasingly
confident that earnings prospects will improve next year. Consensus forecasts for
2009, however, have continued to fall, with May being the lowest figure so far.




                                                [ 4 ]
Figure 8: CIMB’s CY09 EPS estimates (indexed)

      100
        95
        90
        85
        80
        75
        70
        65
        60

                Jan-08

                             Feb-08

                                         Mar-08

                                                     Apr-08

                                                                May-08

                                                                          Jun-08

                                                                                    Jul-08

                                                                                                Aug-08

                                                                                                         Sep-08

                                                                                                                     Oct-08

                                                                                                                                Nov-08

                                                                                                                                            Dec-08

                                                                                                                                                        Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                      Feb-09

                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Apr-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   May-09
Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates



Figure 9: CIMB's CY10 EPS estimates (indexed)

       100
        95
        90
        85
        80
        75
        70
        65
        60
                    Oct-08                   Nov-08                  Dec-08                  Jan-09               Feb-09                 Mar-09                  Apr-09                     May-09


Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates



Figure 10: Consensus CY09 EPS estimates (indexed)


       100.0
        95.0
        90.0
        85.0
        80.0
        75.0
        70.0
        65.0
        60.0
                    Jan-08

                                Feb-08

                                            Mar-08

                                                       Apr-08

                                                                 May-08

                                                                           Jun-08

                                                                                    Jul-08

                                                                                                Aug-08

                                                                                                         Sep-08

                                                                                                                    Oct-08

                                                                                                                              Nov-08

                                                                                                                                          Dec-08

                                                                                                                                                     Jan-09

                                                                                                                                                                  Feb-09

                                                                                                                                                                               Mar-09

                                                                                                                                                                                            Apr-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                          May-09




Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates




                                                                [ 5 ]
Figure 11: Consensus CY10 EPS estimates (indexed)


             100.0
               95.0
               90.0
               85.0
               80.0
               75.0
               70.0
               65.0
               60.0
                            Oct-08        Nov-08            Dec-08              Jan-09         Feb-09            Mar-09         Apr-09        May-09


Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates




CIMB vs. consensus estimates
We are forecasting EPS to fall by nearly 6% in CY09, slightly lower than consensus
forecast of closer to 7%. We also expect EPS to rebound a stronger 19% against
consensus’s 12%. We were ahead of the curve when it came to 2009 earnings cuts
over the past year and we may again be ahead of the curve in terms of earnings
upgrades, particularly for 2010.

Figure 12: CIMB vs. consensus EPS growth
                                                                                                            CY09                              CY10
CIMB                                                                                                        -5.7%                            19.0%
Consensus                                                                                                   -6.6%                            12.3%
CIMB/consensus (x)                                                                                           1.01                             1.06
Source: CIMB estimates, Bloomberg estimates




Net profit to GDP growth ratio
The KLCI net profit growth to nominal GDP growth ratio for 2009 appears to be in
positive territory. This is because both net profit and GDP are forecast to contract. For
2010, GDP growth is expected to recover to 3.5% but we expect core EPS growth to
jump to 19%. Although the net profit to GPD ratio appears high, we believe the figure
is achievable as the same pattern was seen in 1999 after two consecutive years of
earnings contraction.

Figure 13: KLCI net profit growth to nominal GDP growth ratio (x)
              9.0
                                                                                8.0             2009 GDP and EPS both negative, 2010 EPS
              8.0                                                                               forecast to rebound
              7.0                  1997-2000 exceptional years, throws out the
              6.0                           ratios (big -ve in 1998)
                                                                                                            Ratio in negative territory for first time   4.8
              5.0
 Ratio (x)




                            3.6   3.8                                                                                 since Asian crisis
              4.0
                      2.7                                                                    2.8
              3.0                                                                                   2.2
                                               1.7    1.5                                                                             1.9
              2.0                                                                                         1.5                   1.2                1.4
                                         0.9
              1.0                                                                      0.1                        0.4     0.2
              0.0
             -1.0                                                                                                                            (0.7)
                                                               (0.9)
                    1991          1993         1995           1997              1999         2001         2003          2005          2007       2009E
                                                                       (49.5)




Source: Company, CIMB estimates, BNM




GDP growth
The external headwinds hit the economy with full force in 1Q09, with real GDP pulling
back 6.2% yoy. This is the steepest decline since 4Q98 when GDP fell 11.2%. The
first quarter GDP contraction came in worse than our (-5.0% to -5.5%) and market
expectations (-3.5%). On a qoq basis, output declined by 7.7% in 1Q09 (-3.4% qoq in

                                                      [ 6 ]
4Q08).
Domestic demand shrank 2.9% yoy in 1Q09, with private consumption posting a small
decline of 0.7%, the slowest pace since 1Q99 (-2.7%). The spike in retrenchments
and deteriorating labour market conditions led to concerns over job security and an
erosion of consumer confidence. Fixed investment sank 10.8% for the second
consecutive quarter in 1Q09 (-10.2% in 4Q08) as private investment plummeted in
reaction to the fast-deteriorating global demand. Public development spending was
higher.
The global demand slump was a serious drag on GDP, with exports tumbling 15.2%
yoy in 1Q09. Sluggish export income dented consumption and investment. However,
given a sharper fall of 23.5% for imports, net exports added 6.1% pts to 1Q09’s GDP
growth. Large inventory drawdown subtracted 9.7% pts from 1Q09’s GDP.
The manufacturing sector suffered the biggest contraction of 17.6% yoy in 1Q09,
largely dragged down by the slump in electronics demand and falling domestic
demand. The services sector eased 0.1%, reflecting the sharp pullback in trade-
related services. Mining contracted 5.2% while the agriculture sector shrank 4.3% yoy
respectively. Only the construction sector was in positive territory with a small growth
of 0.6% yoy, due to increased office space and high-end residential development.
In our opinion, 1Q09 is the trough in terms of the GDP growth fallout. Judging from
some tentative “green shoots” emerging in major economies and some sequential
improvements in domestic loan indicators, industrial output, exports and leading
indicators, we expect smaller declines in GDP of 2.5-4.5% in 2Q-3Q before a return to
1-2% growth in 4Q. As such, we continue to project a real GDP contraction of 3.0%
for 2009. For 2010, we expect the economy to bounce back 3.5%, underpinned by the
recovery of exports and the follow-through impact of fiscal spending and monetary
easing.

Figure 14: Quarterly real GDP growth vs. KLCI

                  1,600                                       Forecast period: quarterly GDP growth rates                   15.0
                                                                             (RHS) stable
                  1,400
                                                                                                                            10.0
                  1,200
                                                                                                                            5.0
                  1,000
     KLCI level




                                                                                                                                     % change
                   800                                                                                                      0.0
                   600
                                                                                                            KLCI (LHS)      (5.0)
                   400
                                                                                                                            (10.0)
                   200
                     0                                                                                                      (15.0)
                          1Q92   3Q93   1Q95    3Q96   1Q98     3Q99     1Q01    3Q02     1Q04     3Q05      1Q07    3Q08


Source: Company, CIMB estimates, BNM




Valuations and recommendations
We upgraded Malaysia from neutral to OVERWEIGHT in early Apr after staying
cautious for 13 months following the 8 Mar 2008 shocking general elections results
and the subsequent global credit and financial meltdown. Our upgrade was premised
on three key catalysts: 1) improving odds of a regional rebound on the back of
aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, 2) likely stronger-than-expected political
succession effect from the ascension of Dato’ Sri Najib Razak as the 6th prime
minister, and 3) potential reversal of foreign funds net selling, which pushed foreign
ownership in Malaysia to very depressed levels.
Recall that we have been recommending investors to accumulate positions in 2Q due
to 1) the expected poor results season in May due to the high base effect in 1Q08 and
anticipated weak earnings for 1Q09 and 2) negative newsflow on the economic front
including a sharp contraction in 1Q09 GDP. We were only partially right on the first
count as 1Q09 results turned out to be not as bad as feared and did not present any
major shocks or earnings downgrades. This means that there is a good chance we
are past the worst as upcoming quarters may be more balanced and EPS cuts could
have bottomed out. Fundamentally, this is hugely positive for the market.




                                               [ 7 ]
Although we were right on the second count as real GDP fell 6.2% vs. consensus
estimate of 3-4% contraction, the market took the bad news in its stride. The KLCI, in
fact, rebounded a day after the government announced its new 2009 GDP forecast of
a steeper 4-5% contraction. This is an indication of how far market confidence has
improved in the past two months. We continue to believe the gradual redeployment of
excess cash held by domestic and foreign institutional funds will sustain the market
rebound in 2H09. Also, we expect core EPS to expand a robust 19% in 2010 after
falling 5.7% in 2009.
In view of the better-than-expected 1Q results season, continued positive newsflow
from the PM’s first 100 days in office and the return of foreign funds, we upgrade our
year-end KLCI target from 1,060 points to 1,220 points after removing the 10%
discount to its 3-year moving average P/E of 15x. We believe our new target is not
overly aggressive as it is equivalent to the mid-cycle P/E and P/BV for the KLCI. At
1,220 points, the KLCI would trade at 1.9x P/BV, which is still at a 25% discount to its
Dec 07 highs of close to 2.5x.
However, we do not expect the market’s ascent to be a smooth one as the rebound
so far has been faster and stronger than we expected. The market needs to catch its
breath and a significant pullback is long overdue. Nonetheless, domestic catalysts
from the succession effect and huge pools of liquidity not yet deployed by local and
foreign funds should keep the medium-term momentum strong, at least in 2H09. If
1Q09 results are indeed the worst for the market, fundamentals could sustain the
market longer than expectations.

Figure 15: KLCI’s 12M forward core P/E (x) and standard deviation
               22.0

               20.0                                                     KLCI's actual PER, now at 14.1 12M forward
                                                         +3 S.D.
               18.0

               16.0                                         +2 S.D.
     P/E (x)




                                                                   +1 S.D.
               14.0
                                                                                                               -1 S.D.
               12.0
                                                                                                               -2 S.D.
               10.0

                8.0                                                                                             -3 S.D.
                                                                                3-year moving avg = 15.1x
                6.0
                      Nov-03          Jul-04    Mar-05      Nov-05           Jul-06      Mar-07       Nov-07         Jul-08   Mar-09


Source: CIMB estimates


Figure 16: KLCI’s historical P/BV (x)

  2.5

                               1.9x
  2.2


  1.9


  1.6


  1.3
       Dec-01                  Dec-02          Dec-03        Dec-04             Dec-05            Dec-06        Dec-07        Dec-08

Source: CIMB estimates




Sectors to overweight
Our preferred sectors are mostly cyclical sectors such as construction, property and
oil & gas. Although the gaming sector does not fit the bill of high-beta sectors, it
remains one of our favourites as valuations are attractive. We have taken the telco
sector off our list after the downgrades of Telekom and DiGi. Furthermore, being a
defensive and high-dividend yielding sector, it is likely to lag behind in the market
rebound.

                                                 [ 8 ]
• Construction – We maintain our TRADING BUY stance on the construction
                                                      sector as the recent stimulus packages for infrastructure worth over RM20bn raise
                                                      expectations of a sector recovery. The political transition is another positive factor
                                                      for the sector as it could lead to policy measures aimed at reviving construction
                                                      activities. We expect pump priming to intensify in 2H09. The continued softening of
                                                      raw material prices will cap the deterioration in earnings and lead to a margin
                                                      recovery, although the impact will not be immediate.
                                                    • Gaming – The domestic casino segment remains resilient despite recessionary
                                                      fears. The continued uptrend in casino patronage reflects the operator's emphasis
                                                      on yield. Other catalysts include potential regional acquisitions and improved
                                                      capital management initiatives on the back of a huge cash hoard. The mature NFO
                                                      sub-sector is expected to sustain its single-digit growth trend, buoyed by its low
                                                      entry point, the gaming habit and increasing popularity of lotto games. Sustainable
                                                      dividend yields of circa 8% remain a key attraction. Gaming stocks are also
                                                      expected to be beneficiaries of higher weightings following the shift to the FBM
                                                      KLCI benchmark on 6 Jul.
                                                    • Oil & gas – We remain OVERWEIGHT on the oil & gas sector. Rising crude oil
                                                      price spurs exploration and production activities, which, in turn, increase the
                                                      demand for service providers. Most of Malaysia's listed oil & gas companies are
                                                      service providers. We expect local and regional newsflow to pick up in the coming
                                                      months, fuelling the replenishment of service providers' order books, of which a
                                                      few are already at record levels. Companies with strategic assets, i.e. drilling rigs,
                                                      pipelay barges, AHTS vessels and fabrication yards, are expected to enjoy high
                                                      utilisation rates.
                                                    • Property – Despite the very challenging environment for properties, property
                                                      shares should outperform as they tend to move in tandem with the stockmarket,
                                                      but with higher swings on both the downside and upside. We believe they could
                                                      outperform in this rebound as the sector was the worst-performing sector last year.
                                                      Many property stocks, in fact, are still down more than 50% from their peaks and
                                                      are trading at steep discounts to RNAV and book values. The sector is a
                                                      TRADING BUY and our preferred pick is SP Setia for its astute management, size
                                                      and liquidity.

Figure 17: Sector reported net profit (including exceptional items) and related valuations
                         Reported earnings growth (%)                                                 P/E (x)                     P/NTA (x)       ROE (%)             Div yld (%)
                              CY08      CY09      CY10                                  CY08           CY09            CY10           CY09       CY09        CY10             CY09
Automobiles and Parts        47.2%    -47.0%     63.6%                                   9.4           21.2            13.0             0.8      4.0%        6.4%             3.8%
Conglomerates                30.2%    -29.1%     21.9%                                  11.6           19.5            16.0             1.9      9.9%       11.5%             4.2%
Construction and Materials 33.7%        -8.6%    22.4%                                  12.0           15.6            12.8             1.7     10.8%       13.2%             3.6%
Consumer                    -36.1%     21.1%       4.6%                                 15.4           15.1            14.4             6.4     42.2%       43.8%             7.8%
Financial Services           -6.1%       2.2%    18.9%                                  10.9           12.7            10.7             1.5     12.2%       13.1%             5.7%
Forestry and Paper          -13.7%    -12.8%       7.9%                                  3.3             4.5            4.2             0.3      7.8%        7.8%             5.8%
Industrial Goods and Services11.7%    -21.0%     21.8%                                   6.4             9.7            8.0             1.4     15.7%       16.8%             3.1%
Infrastructure              -43.8%       5.3%      6.5%                                 13.8           15.6            14.6             2.9     18.8%       20.0%             6.6%
Media                        19.6%     18.5%     22.8%                                  16.9           17.0            13.8             2.2     13.4%       15.7%             5.4%
Oil and Gas                 -33.5%     20.5%       7.0%                                 11.9           11.8            11.0             1.3     12.1%       11.3%             5.7%
Oil Equipment and Services 73.6%        -6.0%    14.5%                                   8.9           11.3             9.9             2.7     24.5%       26.8%             2.7%
Plantations                  24.2%    -32.9%     29.4%                                  11.7           20.7            16.0             2.4     13.7%       14.3%             2.6%
Property                    -21.3%       2.2%      7.7%                                 13.0           15.2            14.1             1.0      6.4%        6.6%             4.5%
Technology                  -33.3%    -50.0%     54.7%                                  10.3           24.5            15.8             1.3      5.3%        8.1%             4.6%
Telecommunications          -53.5%       5.1%    20.7%                                  14.2           16.1            13.3             1.8     11.8%       13.4%            12.8%
Transportation              -58.5%     11.3%     57.1%                                  18.9           20.2            12.9             1.5      6.9%       11.1%             4.5%
Travel and Leisure           18.3%    -22.0%       2.2%                                  9.6           14.7            14.4             1.8     12.9%       11.9%             2.7%
Utilities                   -39.6%       2.3%    24.1%                                  12.0           14.0            11.3             1.4     11.2%       11.2%             3.3%
Note: Numbers may not be comparable to KLCI data presented earlier as these numbers include exceptionals and non-KLCI companies
Source: CIMB estimates


                                                    Figure 18: KLCI statistics
                                                    KLCI Statistics (@ 1044)                                   2006                2007          2008         2009F            2010F
                                                    P/E (x, pre-EI)                                            15.7                16.9          12.4          15.6             12.7
                                                    P/E (x, after EI)                                          14.3                16.0          13.6          15.6             12.7
                                                    P/E (x, core)                                              16.7                17.7          12.1          15.2             12.8
                                                    Core EPS growth (% )                                      19.2%               24.3%        -10.9%         -5.7%            19.0%
                                                    P/BV (x)                                                    2.0                 2.5            1.5          1.7              1.6
                                                    Dividend yield (%)                                         5.3%                4.6%          6.1%          5.3%             5.1%
                                                    EV/EBITDA (x)                                               8.6                10.0            7.1          8.1              7.1
                                                    P/FCF (x, equity)                                          27.4                19.9          16.6          22.1             17.0
                                                    P/FCF (x, firm)                                            24.4                17.8       1,153.1          14.0             14.6
                                                    Net gearing (%)                                            33%                 23%            30%          24%              20%
                                                    ROE (%, recurring)                                        13.2%               15.3%         12.9%         11.4%            12.6%
                                                    Source: CIMB estimates



                                                                                                    [ 9 ]
Regional comparison
The resurgence of regional markets has reduced Malaysia’s P/E premium over the
region from 40-45% earlier in the year to 14-17%. Malaysia’s 2010 P/E is no longer
the highest in the region. Its EPS contraction in 2009 is slightly below average but
2010 is slightly above average. This puts Malaysia’s valuations broadly in line with the
region.

Figure 19: Regional comparisons as at end-May 09
                                                        Core P/E (x)                               Core EPS growth
                                                2008           2009           2010          2008           2009       2010
HK ( CIMB coverage)                             12.2           12.8           10.6         30.9%          -5.4%      21.6%
JCI (ID)                                        12.0           12.5           11.1          6.4%          -3.7%      12.9%
KLCI (MY)                                       12.1           15.3           12.8        -10.9%          -5.7%      19.0%
FSSTI (SG)                                      14.0           17.1           13.6        -13.3%         -17.8%      25.8%
SET (TH)                                        10.9           10.9             9.5        -4.4%          -0.6%      14.4%
Simple Region x KL avg                          12.3           13.3           11.2          4.9%          -6.9%      18.7%
KLCI PER premium vs region                     17.3%         14.8%           14.3%

Source: CIMB




Portfolio investment flows
Malaysia has suffered four consecutive quarters of outflows of portfolio investments.
The outflows were heaviest from 2Q08 to 4Q08. 1Q09 still saw an outflow but the
quantum has fallen substantially. We believe 2Q09 could reverse into positive territory
should the markets hold up in June as Apr already enjoyed a net inflow of foreign
funds, the first in 13 months.

Figure 20: Quarterly net portfolio fund flows into Malaysia

                 30,000
                                  Highest quarterly inflow on record in 1Q07 = RM25.6bn
                 20,000
                 10,000
                       0
    RM million




                 (10,000)1Q-95 1Q-96 1Q-97 1Q-98 1Q-99 1Q-00 1Q-01 1Q-02 1Q-03 1Q-04 1Q-05 1Q-06 1Q-07 1Q-08 1Q-09
                 (20,000)
                 (30,000)
                                                              Massive outflow in 4Q08= RM33.2bn
                 (40,000)
                 (50,000)                                     Massive outflow in 3Q08= RM56.20bn
                 (60,000)

Source: BNM




Recommendation changes
For the first time in five quarters, we made almost as many recommendation
upgrades as downgrades. This is a major improvement and ties in with our upgrade of
Malaysia from neutral to Overweight on 2 Apr. After the upgrade, we also upgraded
the banking and property sectors as well as other high-beta stocks such as Bursa
Malaysia. Nonetheless, we made a sizeable number of downgrades as we
downgraded low-beta defensive sectors and stocks that have outperformed such as
the tobacco, brewery and consumer stocks. All in all, the number of stocks we
upgraded jumped to 13 (three leading up to Feb 09 and eight up to Nov 08) while the
number downgraded increased to 14 (11 leading up to Feb 09 and 16 up to Nov 08).
The downgrade to upgrade ratio was only to 1.1;1, against the lopsided 3.7:1 in Feb
08, 2:1 in Nov 08 and 8.25:1 in Aug 08.




                                          [ 10 ]
Figure 21: Recommendation changes over past 3 months
Upgrades
Alliance Financial Group (N to O) - undemanding valuation and revival of loan growth in CY10.
Astro (U to TB) - Upgraded due to diminishing risks from Indonesia and minimal exposure to adex.
Axiata (N to O) - Overhang lifted, more positive view of Celcom and Idea.
Bursa Malaysia (U to TB) - Positive market outlook and higher tradin g value to spur earnings.
IOI Corp (U to N) - Easing forex loss concern and beneficiary of shift to new indices
Kurnia Asia (U to TB) - Better underlying surplus and investment income.
Lafarge M Cement (TB to O) - 1Q results beat expectations and we raised earinings forecasts and target prices.
Mah Sing (U to N) - Property stocks possess high-beta features and Mah Sing is one of the favourites in the sector.
Malayan Banking (U to N) - Strong earnings recovery in FY10 and better-than-expected loan growth and NPL ratio.
Sime Darby (U to TB) - Beneficiary of move to new in dices and potential M&As
SP Setia (U to TB) - Upgraded due to its status as the key proxy for the property sector due to its management, size and liq uidity.
Supermax (N to TB) - Upgraded due to improvement in prospects with the write-off of APLI, better-than-expected 1Q results and improving demand.
UM Land (U to TB) - Trading at steep discounts to RNAV and NTA.
Downgrades
ACPI (N to U) - Results were a big disappointment and we cut forecasts substantially.
BAT (N to U) - Unexciting growth prospects, coupled with shift of preference to higher-beta pla ys.
Bin tulu Port (O to N) - The stock's outperformance rela tive to KLCI could reverse due to its defensive qualities which are not favoured in rebounds.
Carlsberg Brewery (TS to U) - Lost the assurance of attractive dividends. Cost pressures continue to weigh down operations.
Dialog (OP to UP) - Limited upside to target price and demanding valuations
DiGi (O to N) - Slowing growth momentum from foreign worker and low-end prepaid users, and weaker net adds.
Hap Seng Plantations (N to U) - Share price outperformance after our recent upgrade has made valuations le ss attractive.
Imaspro Corp (N to U) - Subdued outlook as demand for herbicide/pesticid e is unlikely to pick up strongly after CPO price skid from its Mar 08 highs.
JT International (N to U) - Growth potential limited by tough operating environment, coupled with shift of preference to higher-beta plays.
MCI (N to U) - Earnin gs are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume.
Nestle (N to U) - Limited upside to target price and demanding valuations
NSTP (N to U) - Earnings are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume.
Star Publications (N to UP) - Earnings are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume.
Telekom (O to N) - Share price nearing our target price and lacks catalysts.
Source: CIMB estimates


Figure 22: Top picks
                    29/05/09 Tgt. Price              Basis of                                       P/E               EPS        P/NTA           ROE               Yld
Company                 (RM)       (RM)       Upside Target Price                              CY09     CY10         CAGR         CY09        CY09    CY10       CY09
KLCI                   1,044      1,220        16.8% 15x P/E                                   15.2     12.8          1.8%         1.7       11.4%   12.6%       5.3%
Big Caps (mkt cap >RM5bn)
Axiata                   2.29       2.75        20.1%   SOP based target price                 11.9       11.2        -5.6%         1.8      8.6%         9.3%   0.0%
Berjaya Sports Toto      4.72       5.65        19.7%   5% discount to DDM                     14.9       14.3         2.2%       (36.3)   106.3%        92.9%   7.1%
Genting                  5.45       6.80        24.8%   10% disc to SOP RNAV                   16.8       18.1       -18.0%         2.1      8.6%         8.2%   1.3%
Public Bank              8.60     11.40         32.6%   2-stage DDM                            12.2       10.1        12.8%         3.5     24.0%        25.6%   8.7%
Resorts                  2.76       3.30        19.6%   10% disc to SOP RNAV                   11.7       11.5         1.1%         1.6     14.8%        13.0%   2.6%
RHB Cap                  4.10       5.22        27.3%   2-stage DDM                            11.8       10.3        19.4%         2.0      9.3%        10.1%   3.4%
Tanjong                13.50      16.60         23.0%   20% discount to SOP                     8.9        8.0         4.1%         1.5     17.8%        18.0%   7.0%
YTL Power                2.11       2.61        23.7%   SOP value                              11.9       10.3         3.2%         1.8     14.4%        15.7%   7.3%
Mid caps (mkt cap <RM5bn)
Air Asia                 1.30       1.80        38.5%    P/E 7x                                 5.2        5.1       95.0%          2.0      36.4%       27.1%   0.0%
Alliance Financial       2.17       2.40        10.6%    2-stage DDM                           12.0        9.5      110.5%          1.3      10.0%       11.7%   2.5%
Kencana                  1.84       2.41        31.0%    13.5x CY10 P/E                        11.6       10.3       24.7%          6.6      58.5%       42.7%   0.8%
Lafarge MC               4.90       5.57        13.7%    13.5x P/E and 1.1x P/BV               11.4        9.6        9.4%          2.2      11.9%       13.6%   4.7%
SapCrest                 1.46       1.87        28.1%    13.5 CY10 P/E                         13.1       10.6       23.8%          1.5      10.4%       12.1%   4.1%
Tan Chong                1.70       2.00        17.6%    8x CY10 P/E                            8.1        6.7        6.7%          0.7       9.5%       10.8%   5.9%
Top Glove                5.85       6.39         9.2%   10% disc to 13.5x P/E                  12.65       11.5      16.2%           2.1     18.6%       17.3%   2.6%
Wah Seong                1.81       2.42        33.7%    13.5x CY10 P/E                         8.9        8.0       10.7%          3.2      31.9%       34.1%   3.9%
Small caps (mkt cap < RM1bn)
Eksons                   0.69       0.90        30.4%   0.5x Px/NTA                             4.7        4.6       21.4%          0.4       8.3%        7.9%   5.9%
Kossan                   3.50       4.98        42.3%   30% disc to 13.5x P/E                   7.8        6.6       15.3%          1.5      21.0%       19.8%   3.0%
Petra Perdana            2.59       3.86        49.0%   SOP value                              12.3        5.9       34.1%          1.8      19.2%       26.3%   1.1%
QSR Brands               2.89       5.54        91.7%   16x CY10 P/E                            9.2        8.4       13.5%          2.1      22.1%       24.3%   4.2%
Source: CIMB estimates




                                                                                   [ 11 ]
Figure 23: Top picks by category

GROWTH                                                                                                                                            DIVIDENDS


                               Kencana                                                                               B Sports Toto
                               Top Glov e                                 Public Bank                                Tanjong




                               Air Asia      Kossan                       SapuraCrest                 Eksons
                               Wah Seong Petra Perdana                                                YTL Pow er
                               Ax iata                                                                Tan Chong




                                                                          Lafarge       Alliance Financial
                                                                          Resorts       QSR
                                                                          Genting       RHB Cap
                                                                                                                                     UNDEMANDING
                                                                                                                                     VALUATIONS


Source: CIMB estimates


Figure 24: Summary of earning outperformances / underperformances for stocks under coverage
                         Above expectations                                                                  Below expectations
AirAsia                  Strong y ield                                              AFG Bhd                  Higher impairment losses and LLP
Ax iata                  Stronger performance at Celcom & TMIB.                     Astro                    Higher than ex pected content cost
HL Bank                  Low er LLP and 5% rise in rev enue                         B Toto                   Poorer luck factor
Kurnia                   Better inv est. income & underw riting surplus             Dialog                   Margin pressure at ov erseas units
Lafarge M Cement Boosted by better domestic & ex port prices                        Dreamgate                Weak rev enue + still high costs
MAS                      Demand w eakening                                          Genting                  Higher MI and tax es
May bank                 Higher LLP and low er inv estment income                   Hap Seng Plantation Low er FFB y ield
MPI                      Economic headw inds buffeted rev                           JobStreet                Topline fared relativ ely w ell; margins below ex p
PLUS                     Strong traffic v olumes                                    May bulk                 Low er dry bulk rates
Tenaga                   Low er-than-ex pected coal usage                           MCI Ltd                  Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume
Unisem                   Economy battered top line                                  MISC                     Large liner losses, low er tanker rates
                                                                                    MTD ACPI                 India and Thai continue losses
                                                                                    NSTP                     Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume
                                                                                    Proton                   Higher operating and input costs.
                                                                                    Sime Darby               Weak plantation and O&G
                                                                                    SP Setia                 Margin squeeze due to material costs
                                                                                    Star                     Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume
                                                                                    Suria Capital            Weak port div ision and engineering div ision.
                                                                                    Tanjong                  Pow er and TI disappointed
                                                                                    Uchi                     Regulatory scheme affecting them
                                                                                    UMW                      Weak auto div ision

                                                                    Within expectations
Tan Chong          Affin      AMMB                 Bursa       EON Capital      Public Bank RHB Capital nn Joo
                                                                                                      A                              Carlsberg     F&N         Guinness
Nestle             QSR Brands Eksons               Asia File   Kossan           Pelikan     Top Glove Wellcall                       Ekovest       Gamuda      IJM
LCL                Puncak Niaga MRCB               WCT         Media Prima      Kencana         Petra Perdana etronas Dagangan Wah Seong
                                                                                                            P                                      Asiatic     IOI Corp
KLK                Hunza Prop      KLCC PropertyDiGi.com       Telekom          BAT             JTI           Bintulu Port           YTL Power     Resorts
Source: CIMB estimates




                                                                                    [ 12 ]
Appendix: Companies’ 1Q09 results and comments
Company                     Period Deviation in ann.            % growth in net profit                           Comments
                                                                                       Chg in EPS
                                   core net profit vs.   yoy          qoq       YTD
                                                                                       (forward yrs)
                                    CIMB Consensus
Automotive
                                                                                        -142.9% for FY10, and -
Proton                    4QFY09        nm         nm    129            (17)      (123)                         Higher operating and input costs.
                                                                                        76.4% for FY11
Tan Chong                 1QFY09      19%        13%      (23)           48        (23) None                    Expect weaker quarters ahead
UMW                       1QFY09      39%        43%      (53)          (43)       (53) -6% to -26% for FY09-11 Weak auto division

Banking & Finance
Affin                     1QFY09       68%        54%      (1)            9         (1)   No change              30% drop in non-int. and 14.8% rise in LLP
Alliance                  4QFY09      -28%       -29%     (99)          (98)       (40)   No change              Higher impairment losses and LLP
AMMB                      4QFY09        1%         3%     (17)          (28)        29    No change              Lower MI and 33% drop in LLP
Bursa                     1QFY09      -60%       -37%     (63)           15        (63)   No change              65% plunge in 1Q market trading value
EON Capital               1QFY09       86%        47%       4           (11)         4    No change              58% drop in LLP offsetting lower NIM
HL Bank                   3QFY09       21%        16%       0           (20)        16    +10%                   Lower LLP and 5% rise in revenue
Maybank                   3QFY09       13%        -2%     (34)          (31)       (19)   5% to 9%               Higher LLP and lower investment income
RHB Capital               1QFY09       25%         4%       3            16          3    +2.1%                  RM20m write-back but LLP +15%

Building materials
Ann Joo                   1QFY09     -154%      -117%    (140)          (80)      (140) No change                Expect better quarters ahead.
Lafarge M C               1QFY09      107%       111%      47             2         47 4 to 7%                   Boosted by better domestic & export prices

Conglomerate
Sime Darby                3QFY09      -10%       -20%     (85)         116         (45) +2% to -7% for FY09-11   Weak plantation and O&G

Food & beverage
Carlsberg                 1QFY09        7%        11%     (19)         123         (19)   No change              Stronger on seasonal factors.
F&N                       2QFY09       18%        14%      20            5          13    No change              Soft drink sales gained from CNY timing
Guinness                  3QFY09       12%        12%     (10)          (6)          8    No change              Stronger on seasonal factors.
QSR Brands                1QFY09      -21%       None      (1)          (7)         (1)   No change              Same-store growth down on CNY timing

Gaming
B Toto                    3QFY09      -10%        -4%      (1)         (15)          5    -10% for FY09          Poorer luck factor
Dreamgate                 1QFY09     -537%      -385%    (268)         114        (268)   -7% to -22%            Weak revenue + still high costs
Genting                   1QFY09      -23%       -12%     (41)         (63)        (41)   -4% to -6%             Higher MI and taxes
Resorts                   1QFY09      -14%        -2%       3          (18)          3    -2% to -3%             Expect seasonally stronger 2H
Tanjong                   4QFY09      -15%       -12%     (53)         (34)         (8)   -7% to -8%             Power and TI disappointed

Industrial
Eksons                    4QFY09        7%       -12%     (66)          (40)       (66)   No change              Weak plywood demand and prices
Asia File                 4QFY09        3%       -10%      60           183         60    No change              Slow Europe and US sales growth
Kossan                    1QFY09      -21%       -22%       1           (11)         1    No change              Expect improving earnings in future
Pelikan                   1QFY09        2%       -10%      na          (118)        na    No change              Slowdown in Europe sales
Top Glove                 2QFY09        2%         7%      28             4         22    No change              Higher ASP and stronger USD
Wellcall                  2QFY09        0%       -10%     (55)          (44)         4    No change              Demand slowdown due to global crisis

Infrastructure
MTD ACPI                  4QFY09   -50%          -56%     197           145        197    -40 To -44%             India and Thai continue losses
Ekovest                   3QFY09   -25%          -25%     (72)          (38)       (59)   No change               Diminishing orderbook
Gamuda                    2QFY09   -23%          -24%     (46)          (11)       (42)   No change               Construction and property weakness
IJM                       4QFY09 -0.01%        -0.01%     (24)           (7)        (1)   No change               Construction outlook improves
LCL                       1QFY09    -5%           -8%    (251)          (13)      (251)   No change               Furthe provision for Dubai jobs
PLUS                      1QFY09    +7%           +1%       1            (6)         1    +1.8% to +1.9%          Strong traffic volumes
Puncak Niaga              1QFY09   -98%          -98%     (86)         (138)       (86)   No change               Better quarters ahead from tariff hike
MRCB                      1QFY09      -87%       -97%     (99)         (101)       (99) No change                 Construction and property to improve
WCT                       1QFY09     +18%         0.16    (29)            6        (29) No change                 Expecting a weak 4Q

Insurance
Kurnia Asia                3QFY09     120%       156%     na.           na.        na. +90% to +200%              Better invt income & underwriting surplus
Source: Company, CIMB estimates

                                                                                                                                        [ continued on the following page… ]




                                                                               [ 13 ]
[ continued from the previous page… ]


 Appendix: Companies’ 1Q09 results and comments (continued)
 Company                        Period    Deviation in ann.              % growth in net profit                             Comments
                                                                                                  Chg in EPS
                                          Core net profit vs.   yoy            qoq       YTD
                                                                                                  (forward yrs)
                                           CIMB     Consensus
 Media
 Astro                        4QFY09       -31%       >+100%    (116)            24        84 -30% to -65%                  Higher-than-expected content cost
 Media Prima                 1QFY09      -70.6%           -85    (80)           (91)      (80) No change                    1Q09 is usually the weakest
 NSTP                         1QFY09     <-100%       <-100%    (132)          (140)     (132) -30%                         Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume
 MCI Ltd                      4QFY09      -22%          -16%    (164)          (113)       56 -23% to -27%                  Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume
 Star                         1QFY09      -60%          -49%      (57)           (51)     (57) -14% to -22%                 Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume

 Oil & gas
 Dialog                       3QFY09      -25%          -25%      (7)            (6)        4 -14% to -17%                  Margin pressure at overseas units
 Kencana                      2QFY09       -8%           -4%      26            (18)       52 None                          KM1 contributes for the first full year
 Petra Perdana                1QFY09      -49%          -48%       4            188         4 -5% to -6%                    Expect stronger 2H due to a bigger fleet
 Petronas Dagangan            4QFY09        3%           -1%       3            305       (13) No change                    Margin improvement & volume recovery
 Wah Seong                    1QFY09      -22%          -20%     (10)             9         9 No change                     Expect more SSGP pipe shipments

 Plantations
 Asiatic                      1QFY09      -34%          -40%     (68)              0      (68)    No change                 Weak CPO price and output
 Hap Seng Plantation          1QFY09      -60%          -68%        -           (53)         -    - 5% for FY09             Lower FFB yield
 IOI Corp                     3QFY09        -1%          -1%     (58)             (3)     (30)    2% to -17% for FY09-11    Higher forex loss
 KLK                          2QFY09         1%           0%      -52            -50       -36    - 5% for FY09             Weak CPO price and output

 Property
                                                                                               +1.1% to +1.3% for FY09-
 Hunza Prop                   3QFY09       -4%           -4%     (40)           (15)      (52)                              Soft sales, but margins boost from Infinity
                                                                                               11
 KLCC Property                4QFY09        3%            2%       (2)            (4)       4 No change                     Earnings growth from office and mall
 SP Setia                     1QFY09      -44%          -47%     (36)           (37)      (36) -5% to -31%                  Margin squeeze due to material costs

 Technology
 JobStreet                    1QFY09     -18.2%       -16.1%     (47)           (21)      (47) -9% to -20%                  Topline fared relatively well; margins below exp
 MPI                          3QFY09      151%          122%    (573)          (911)     (116) +47% to +148%                Economic headwinds buffeted rev
 Uchi                         1QFY09      -32%          145%     (53)            (20)     (53) -28% to -36%                 Regulatory scheme affecting them

 Telecommunications
 DiGi.com                     1QFY09        -4%           3%       (6)            (2)      (6) -0.03                        Slowing rev growth and net adds
 Axiata                       1QFY09        -3%          -6%     (28)        (1,424)      (28) 7-10%                        Stronger performance at Celcom & TMIB.
 Telekom                      1QFY09       53%           50%     (20)            65       (20) -2% to -14%                  Lower opex and weakness in broadband

 Tobacco
 BAT                          1QFY09       -1%           -1%      (3)            19        (3) -1.8% to -2.7% for FY09-11 Impact from illicit trade and brand migration
 JTI                          1QFY09       28%           27%       7            251         7 No change                     Improved sales volu me.

 Transportation
                                                                                                  +8% FY09, +26% FY10,
 AirAsia                      1QFY09       20%           62%    603              16       (27)                               Strong yield
                                                                                                  +19% FY11
 Bintulu Port                 1QFY09       27%           27%      (3)            43        (3) -3.1% to -6.1% for FY09-10 Weaker 2H expected from dredging costs.

 MISC                         4QFY09       -7%          -12%     (73)           (27)      (37) -6% FY10, -5% FY11            Large liner losses, lower tanker rates
                                                                                               -30% FY09, -22% FY10, -
 Maybulk                      1QFY09      -73%          -69%     (86)            73       (96)                               Lower dry bulk rates
                                                                                               28% FY11
                                                                                               -187% for FY09, +25%
 MAS                          4QFY08      341%          -32%     (86)           130       (84)                               Demand weakening
                                                                                               FY10
 Suria Capital                1QFY09      -20%           -7%     (16)           215       (16) -5% to -14% for FY09-11       Weak port division and engineering division.

 Utilities
                                                                                               +2.2 to +4.6% increase in
 Tenaga                       2QFY09       16%           28%       3             60       (37)                               Lower-than-expected coal usage
                                                                                               FY09-11
 YTL Power                    3QFY09       -5%           -9%     (20)             3       (19) No changes                    Expect stronger quarters ahead
 Source: Company, CIMB estimates




                                                                                [ 14 ]
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                                                                                       [ 15 ]
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Not as bad as feared, worst over?

  • 1. STRATEGY 2 June 2009 CIMB Research Report MALAYSIA OVERWEIGHT Maintained 1Q09 results round-up 1,044 @29/05/09 Not as bad as feared, worst over? Target Index: 1,220 KLCI INDEX Terence Wong, CFA +60 (3) 2084-9689 – terence.wong@cimb.com • Not as bad as feared. Poor though the results were, the May results season was not as bad as feared. In fact, there were reasons to be encouraged. The revision ratio improved from 0.43x in Feb 09 to 0.6x, meaning that the earnings downgrade momentum is not as lopsided as before. Some 60% of companies met expectations (43% previously) and 25% failed to deliver (40% before). 15% did better than expected, a slight pullback from 17% during the Feb results season. In terms of sector performance, six disappointed while only two were above expectations. • EPS forecast surprisingly raised. More significant than the actual number of companies that surpassed or missed expectations is the fact that 2009 and 2010 EPS have been raised, rather than cut. This is a pleasant surprise. Since the Feb results season, 2009 EPS contraction has been reduced from 8% to around 6% while 2010 EPS growth has been raised from 16% to 19%. Upgrades came largely from the plantation sector due to firm CPO prices, as well as big caps such as Axiata and Maybank, which more than offset letdowns from smaller caps. • The worst could be over. In our Apr strategy when we upgraded Malaysia to Overweight, we thought 2Q could provide a buying opportunity due to 1) the expected poor results season, and 2) announcement of a sharp contraction in 1Q09 GDP. We were only partially right on the first count as 1Q09 results have turned out to be not as bad as expected and did not present any major shocks or earnings downgrades. This means that there is a good chance we are past the worst as upcoming quarters may be more balanced and EPS cuts could have bottomed out. Fundamentally, this is hugely positive for the market. • New KLCI target of 1,220. Although our economics team was spot on about 1Q GDP being weak – it sank 6.2% – the market took the bad news in its stride. This is an indication of how far market confidence has improved in the past two months. We continue to believe the gradual reinvestment of institutional funds’ spare cash will sustain the market rebound in 2H09. In view of the better-than- expected 1Q results season, continued positive newsflow during PM Dato’ Sri Najib Razak’s first 100 days in office and the gradual return of foreign funds to the market, we upgrade our year-end KLCI target from 1,060 to 1,220 points after removing the 10% discount to its 3-year moving average P/E of 15x. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT stance on Malaysia and our preference for cyclical bombed- out sectors including construction, building materials, property and oil & gas. Figure 1: 1Q09 results by sector and for the KLCI Rec 1 Q0 9 pe rforma nce Res ul ts vs. Comme nts qoq cha nge yoy cha nge e xpec ta tions A uto motive NEUTRA L -3 4. 8% -8 9.0 % B elow Lo we r sa les vo lume a nd ma rgin p ressure fr FX. B an king & Fin an ce NEUTRA L -1 8. 5% -2 1.5 % In line Expe cting furth er incre ase in cred it costs B uilding m ate rials OVE RW EIG HT -149. 5% -6 6.9 % In line Bet ter AS Ps a nd expe ct dem and to imp rove in 2H Food & b evera ge NEUTRA L 1 7. 2% 2.6% In line Rising cost p ressures m itiga ted by dece nt d ivid en ds G am in g OVE RW EIG HT -4 3. 4% -2 6.7 % B elow Ca sino in lin e but NFO affecte d b y luck In du stria l OVE RW EIG HT 26 3. 1% -1 1.2 % B elow Ma rg ins susta ina ble In frastructu re TRADING BUY -0. 6% -2 7.1 % In line Expe ct pu mp p rim in g to pick u p In surance TRADING BUY NM -20 3.9% A bove Bet ter invest ment in com e a nd imp rovin g cla ims ratio M ed ia NEUTRA L -7 1. 7% -18 9.0% B elow Ad volum e co uld de ce lerate O il & gas OVE RW EIG HT 10 6. 7% 2.7% In line Ben eficiary of recovery in cru de oil price P lanta tion s UNDERW EIGHT -2 4. 2% -5 6.2 % In line Expe ct be tte r earn in gs in futu re q uarte rs P ro pe rtie s TRADING BUY -1 8. 4% -1 9.2 % B elow Ma rg in sq uee ze f or de velop ers Techn olog y NEUTRA L -264. 9% -17 1.5% In line Sem icon s we re a bo ve ; Uchi a nd Jobstre et belo w Tele comm unica tio ns NEUTRA L 9 7. 0% -1 9.1 % In line Axiata be at expectatio ns, DiGi a nd TM in lin e Toba cco UNDERW EIGHT 3 1. 0% -1.4% In line We ak volume and tou gh er op eratin g e nviro nme nt. Tran spo rt & log istics UNDERW EIGHT 0. 4% -6 1.3 % B elow Ship ping be low, A irAsia abo ve Utilit ie s NEUTRA L 4 3. 0% -3.3% A bove Lo we r-th an-e xpect ed coal u sage Source: Company, CIMB estimates Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.
  • 2. Analysis of May reporting season Although the May corporate results season was poor, there were some bright spots. Out of the 75 companies that we track, only 25% fell short of expectations, a big improvement on the 40% that failed to deliver in Feb. The percentage of companies that outdid expectations, however, edged down from 17% to 15% while the proportion of those that lived up to expectations jumped from 43% to 60%. The number of sectors that missed the mark fell from seven to six, i.e. auto, gaming, media, oil & gas, plantations and property. Again, no sector performed convincingly above expectations though defensive sectors such as telco and utilities again performed commendably. Figure 2: 1Q09 results vs. our forecasts Sector Vs. our forecasts % Above In line Below Total Above In line Below Automotive 0 1 2 3 0 33 67 Banking & Finance 2 6 1 9 22 67 11 Buildings materials 1 1 0 2 50 50 0 Conglomerates 0 0 1 1 0 0 100 Food & beverage 0 5 0 5 0 100 0 Gaming 0 1 4 5 0 20 80 Industrial 0 6 0 6 0 100 0 Infrastructure 1 7 1 9 11 78 11 Insurance 1 0 0 1 100 0 0 Media 0 1 4 5 0 20 80 Oil & gas 0 4 1 5 0 80 20 Plantations 0 3 1 4 0 75 25 Properties 0 2 1 3 0 67 33 Technology 2 2 0 4 50 50 0 Telecommunications 1 2 0 3 33 67 0 Tobacco 0 2 0 2 0 100 0 Transport & logistics 2 1 3 6 33 17 50 Utilities 1 1 0 2 50 50 0 Total 11 45 19 75 15 60 25 Source: Company, CIMB estimates Figure 3: Performance relative to expectations in the reporting seasons 80% 75% 71% 69% 70% 63% 63% 71% 63% 60% 59% 56% 59% 60% 54% 53% 52% 52% 47% 46% 42% 50% 40% 43% 43% 44% 40% 33% 33% 34% 34% 38%40% 28% 29% 26% 26% 30% 24% 23% 25% 18% 17% 21% 19% 19% 20% 19% 18% 18% 15% 20% 11% 13% 13% 15% 12% 17% 14% 14% 14% 16% 17% 15% 7% 7% 14% 10% 0% 2Q04 4Q04 2Q05 4Q05 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07 4Q07 2Q08 4Q08 Companies beating expectations Companies meeting expectations Companies coming below expectations Source: Company, CIMB estimates Revision ratio The revision ratio (number of forecasts revised upwards vs. number of forecasts revised downwards) improved from 0.43x in 4Q08 to 0.6x in 1Q09. This is a considerable improvement and means that earnings momentum is not so negative that downgrades overwhelm upgrades. As the ratio has improved after staying within the 0.3-0.4x range for the previous three results seasons, it suggests that analysts’ earnings numbers are beginning to catch up with reality. However, we do note that the ratio remains well below 1x, the level at which the earnings upgrade momentum turns positive. [ 2 ]
  • 3. Figure 4: Revisions up/revisions down (x) 2.00 1.80 Positive momentum for market 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 Negative momentum for market 0.40 0.20 0.00 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 Source: Company, CIMB estimates KLCI EPS growth The yoy EPS growth rate for the KLCI fallen from the 20-30% range in 2006-early 08 to -27% in 4Q08 and an even worse -36% in 1Q. On qoq basis, the EPS compression improved from 10.6% in 4Q08 to 4.9% in 1Q09. Sectors that pulled down qoq earnings in 4Q were autos, building materials, industrial, insurance, plantations and technology. The previous negative trend in 2005/6 lasted five straight quarters from 1Q05 to 1Q06. Should it last just as long this time, EPS growth would only return to positive territory in 3Q09, meaning that we could see one more quarter of earnings slippage. Figure 5: Qoq and yoy growth rates in core EPS for Bursa sample 40.0% Strong rebound in EPS 29.9% 30.9% 30.0% 25.6% 27.6% 27.2% 25.9% 22.8% 18.3% 20.0% 14.0% 10.6% 12.6% 11.0% 6.8% 7.8% 10.0% 22.5% 1.6% 0.4% -2.2% 0.0% -10.0% -5.3% -3.0% 4.3% -3.9% -4.9% -6.3% -8.7% -7.2% -8.4% -9.0%-10.6% -20.0% -13.2% -14.6% -19.7% Q-o-Q change -30.0% Y-o-Y change -27.4% -35.9% -40.0% KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI KLCI 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 Source: Company, CIMB estimates Change in our estimates The three-month period including the May results season was actually positive, a big reversal from previous results seasons. While our 0.6% upgrade of 2009 core EPS is marginal, it is nonetheless significant as it is the first upward revision since the Feb 08 results season. FY10 EPS was raised a higher 3.3%. In total, we upped our forecasts for eight companies (11 in Feb), i.e. Maybank, Hong Leong Bank, Kurnia Asia, MPI, Lafarge M Cement, Axiata, AirAsia and Tenaga (see Appendix). The number of companies which saw earnings downgrades eased from 30 in Feb to 23, i.e. Proton, UMW, Sime Darby, B Toto, Dreamgate, Tanjong, MTD-ACPI, Astro, NST, MCIL, Star, Dialog, Petra Perdana, Hap Seng Plantations, IOI Corp, KL Kepong, SP Setia, Telekom, BAT, Bintulu Port, MISC, Maybulk and Suria Cap. [ 3 ]
  • 4. Figure 6: Qoq change in our KLCI earnings estimates for CY09 and CY10 post results seasons 21.0% CY09 CY10 9.0% 3.3% 0.6% -3.0% -4.3% -7.2% -6.8% -15.0% -13.3% End Nov 2008 End Feb 2009 End May 2009 1Q05 results Source: Company, CIMB estimates Sectoral changes in EPS Looking at the sectoral changes for reported profits, the numbers were still mixed. CY09 reported earnings were cut for eight (10 previously) out of 18 categories. Earnings were reduced the most for the auto, media and transport sectors. We upped our forecasts for six sectors, the same as before, with the main earnings upgrades coming from technology and banking. For CY10, we scaled back our earnings numbers for four sectors while raising them for eight categories. Figure 7: Sector changes in reported EPS post 1Q09* CY09 CY10 Comments Automotive -38% -18% Lower sales volume but margin improved Banking & Finance 3% 2% Higher LLP and decline in non-interest income Building materials -1% 4% Lower domestic demand but better ASPs Conglomerates -2% 2% Strong plantation and industrial earnings Food & Beverage 0% 0% Defensive topline, but rising raw material costs Gaming -4% -3% Genting's numbers revised down for taxes & MI Industrial 3% 0% Demand for rubber gloves to remain resilient Infrastructure 1% 1% Pump priming to intensify in 2H09 Insurance 185% -100% Improved investment income and lower claims ratio. Media -10% -8% Greater earnings risks for newspaper companies Oil & Gas -3% -3% Players enjoy recovery in demand not just locally Plantations 1% 1% Lower CPO price and FFB yield Property 0% 0% Margin squeeze due to high material costs Technology 5% 5% Raised numbers for semicon players Telco -1% 0% Axiata exceeded expectations, TM and DiGi in line Tobacco 0% 0% Industry prospects continue to be pressured Transport & Logistics -8% 3% Shipping revised down, AirAsia revised up Utilities 0% 0% Adjust earnings for lower coal consumption * based on 1-month change in earnings from Apr 09 to May 09 Source: CIMB estimates CIMB’s core net profit estimates 2009 core net profit forecasts have been relatively stable since the last results season in Feb and have started to creep up on a monthly basis. This reprieve from the relentless cuts seen in the past year is reassuring. The raising of earnings forecasts estimates is more pronounced for 2010, which indicates that analysts are increasingly confident that earnings prospects will improve next year. Consensus forecasts for 2009, however, have continued to fall, with May being the lowest figure so far. [ 4 ]
  • 5. Figure 8: CIMB’s CY09 EPS estimates (indexed) 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates Figure 9: CIMB's CY10 EPS estimates (indexed) 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates Figure 10: Consensus CY09 EPS estimates (indexed) 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates [ 5 ]
  • 6. Figure 11: Consensus CY10 EPS estimates (indexed) 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 65.0 60.0 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Source: CIMB estimates, Reuters estimates CIMB vs. consensus estimates We are forecasting EPS to fall by nearly 6% in CY09, slightly lower than consensus forecast of closer to 7%. We also expect EPS to rebound a stronger 19% against consensus’s 12%. We were ahead of the curve when it came to 2009 earnings cuts over the past year and we may again be ahead of the curve in terms of earnings upgrades, particularly for 2010. Figure 12: CIMB vs. consensus EPS growth CY09 CY10 CIMB -5.7% 19.0% Consensus -6.6% 12.3% CIMB/consensus (x) 1.01 1.06 Source: CIMB estimates, Bloomberg estimates Net profit to GDP growth ratio The KLCI net profit growth to nominal GDP growth ratio for 2009 appears to be in positive territory. This is because both net profit and GDP are forecast to contract. For 2010, GDP growth is expected to recover to 3.5% but we expect core EPS growth to jump to 19%. Although the net profit to GPD ratio appears high, we believe the figure is achievable as the same pattern was seen in 1999 after two consecutive years of earnings contraction. Figure 13: KLCI net profit growth to nominal GDP growth ratio (x) 9.0 8.0 2009 GDP and EPS both negative, 2010 EPS 8.0 forecast to rebound 7.0 1997-2000 exceptional years, throws out the 6.0 ratios (big -ve in 1998) Ratio in negative territory for first time 4.8 5.0 Ratio (x) 3.6 3.8 since Asian crisis 4.0 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.5 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 -1.0 (0.7) (0.9) 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009E (49.5) Source: Company, CIMB estimates, BNM GDP growth The external headwinds hit the economy with full force in 1Q09, with real GDP pulling back 6.2% yoy. This is the steepest decline since 4Q98 when GDP fell 11.2%. The first quarter GDP contraction came in worse than our (-5.0% to -5.5%) and market expectations (-3.5%). On a qoq basis, output declined by 7.7% in 1Q09 (-3.4% qoq in [ 6 ]
  • 7. 4Q08). Domestic demand shrank 2.9% yoy in 1Q09, with private consumption posting a small decline of 0.7%, the slowest pace since 1Q99 (-2.7%). The spike in retrenchments and deteriorating labour market conditions led to concerns over job security and an erosion of consumer confidence. Fixed investment sank 10.8% for the second consecutive quarter in 1Q09 (-10.2% in 4Q08) as private investment plummeted in reaction to the fast-deteriorating global demand. Public development spending was higher. The global demand slump was a serious drag on GDP, with exports tumbling 15.2% yoy in 1Q09. Sluggish export income dented consumption and investment. However, given a sharper fall of 23.5% for imports, net exports added 6.1% pts to 1Q09’s GDP growth. Large inventory drawdown subtracted 9.7% pts from 1Q09’s GDP. The manufacturing sector suffered the biggest contraction of 17.6% yoy in 1Q09, largely dragged down by the slump in electronics demand and falling domestic demand. The services sector eased 0.1%, reflecting the sharp pullback in trade- related services. Mining contracted 5.2% while the agriculture sector shrank 4.3% yoy respectively. Only the construction sector was in positive territory with a small growth of 0.6% yoy, due to increased office space and high-end residential development. In our opinion, 1Q09 is the trough in terms of the GDP growth fallout. Judging from some tentative “green shoots” emerging in major economies and some sequential improvements in domestic loan indicators, industrial output, exports and leading indicators, we expect smaller declines in GDP of 2.5-4.5% in 2Q-3Q before a return to 1-2% growth in 4Q. As such, we continue to project a real GDP contraction of 3.0% for 2009. For 2010, we expect the economy to bounce back 3.5%, underpinned by the recovery of exports and the follow-through impact of fiscal spending and monetary easing. Figure 14: Quarterly real GDP growth vs. KLCI 1,600 Forecast period: quarterly GDP growth rates 15.0 (RHS) stable 1,400 10.0 1,200 5.0 1,000 KLCI level % change 800 0.0 600 KLCI (LHS) (5.0) 400 (10.0) 200 0 (15.0) 1Q92 3Q93 1Q95 3Q96 1Q98 3Q99 1Q01 3Q02 1Q04 3Q05 1Q07 3Q08 Source: Company, CIMB estimates, BNM Valuations and recommendations We upgraded Malaysia from neutral to OVERWEIGHT in early Apr after staying cautious for 13 months following the 8 Mar 2008 shocking general elections results and the subsequent global credit and financial meltdown. Our upgrade was premised on three key catalysts: 1) improving odds of a regional rebound on the back of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, 2) likely stronger-than-expected political succession effect from the ascension of Dato’ Sri Najib Razak as the 6th prime minister, and 3) potential reversal of foreign funds net selling, which pushed foreign ownership in Malaysia to very depressed levels. Recall that we have been recommending investors to accumulate positions in 2Q due to 1) the expected poor results season in May due to the high base effect in 1Q08 and anticipated weak earnings for 1Q09 and 2) negative newsflow on the economic front including a sharp contraction in 1Q09 GDP. We were only partially right on the first count as 1Q09 results turned out to be not as bad as feared and did not present any major shocks or earnings downgrades. This means that there is a good chance we are past the worst as upcoming quarters may be more balanced and EPS cuts could have bottomed out. Fundamentally, this is hugely positive for the market. [ 7 ]
  • 8. Although we were right on the second count as real GDP fell 6.2% vs. consensus estimate of 3-4% contraction, the market took the bad news in its stride. The KLCI, in fact, rebounded a day after the government announced its new 2009 GDP forecast of a steeper 4-5% contraction. This is an indication of how far market confidence has improved in the past two months. We continue to believe the gradual redeployment of excess cash held by domestic and foreign institutional funds will sustain the market rebound in 2H09. Also, we expect core EPS to expand a robust 19% in 2010 after falling 5.7% in 2009. In view of the better-than-expected 1Q results season, continued positive newsflow from the PM’s first 100 days in office and the return of foreign funds, we upgrade our year-end KLCI target from 1,060 points to 1,220 points after removing the 10% discount to its 3-year moving average P/E of 15x. We believe our new target is not overly aggressive as it is equivalent to the mid-cycle P/E and P/BV for the KLCI. At 1,220 points, the KLCI would trade at 1.9x P/BV, which is still at a 25% discount to its Dec 07 highs of close to 2.5x. However, we do not expect the market’s ascent to be a smooth one as the rebound so far has been faster and stronger than we expected. The market needs to catch its breath and a significant pullback is long overdue. Nonetheless, domestic catalysts from the succession effect and huge pools of liquidity not yet deployed by local and foreign funds should keep the medium-term momentum strong, at least in 2H09. If 1Q09 results are indeed the worst for the market, fundamentals could sustain the market longer than expectations. Figure 15: KLCI’s 12M forward core P/E (x) and standard deviation 22.0 20.0 KLCI's actual PER, now at 14.1 12M forward +3 S.D. 18.0 16.0 +2 S.D. P/E (x) +1 S.D. 14.0 -1 S.D. 12.0 -2 S.D. 10.0 8.0 -3 S.D. 3-year moving avg = 15.1x 6.0 Nov-03 Jul-04 Mar-05 Nov-05 Jul-06 Mar-07 Nov-07 Jul-08 Mar-09 Source: CIMB estimates Figure 16: KLCI’s historical P/BV (x) 2.5 1.9x 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Source: CIMB estimates Sectors to overweight Our preferred sectors are mostly cyclical sectors such as construction, property and oil & gas. Although the gaming sector does not fit the bill of high-beta sectors, it remains one of our favourites as valuations are attractive. We have taken the telco sector off our list after the downgrades of Telekom and DiGi. Furthermore, being a defensive and high-dividend yielding sector, it is likely to lag behind in the market rebound. [ 8 ]
  • 9. • Construction – We maintain our TRADING BUY stance on the construction sector as the recent stimulus packages for infrastructure worth over RM20bn raise expectations of a sector recovery. The political transition is another positive factor for the sector as it could lead to policy measures aimed at reviving construction activities. We expect pump priming to intensify in 2H09. The continued softening of raw material prices will cap the deterioration in earnings and lead to a margin recovery, although the impact will not be immediate. • Gaming – The domestic casino segment remains resilient despite recessionary fears. The continued uptrend in casino patronage reflects the operator's emphasis on yield. Other catalysts include potential regional acquisitions and improved capital management initiatives on the back of a huge cash hoard. The mature NFO sub-sector is expected to sustain its single-digit growth trend, buoyed by its low entry point, the gaming habit and increasing popularity of lotto games. Sustainable dividend yields of circa 8% remain a key attraction. Gaming stocks are also expected to be beneficiaries of higher weightings following the shift to the FBM KLCI benchmark on 6 Jul. • Oil & gas – We remain OVERWEIGHT on the oil & gas sector. Rising crude oil price spurs exploration and production activities, which, in turn, increase the demand for service providers. Most of Malaysia's listed oil & gas companies are service providers. We expect local and regional newsflow to pick up in the coming months, fuelling the replenishment of service providers' order books, of which a few are already at record levels. Companies with strategic assets, i.e. drilling rigs, pipelay barges, AHTS vessels and fabrication yards, are expected to enjoy high utilisation rates. • Property – Despite the very challenging environment for properties, property shares should outperform as they tend to move in tandem with the stockmarket, but with higher swings on both the downside and upside. We believe they could outperform in this rebound as the sector was the worst-performing sector last year. Many property stocks, in fact, are still down more than 50% from their peaks and are trading at steep discounts to RNAV and book values. The sector is a TRADING BUY and our preferred pick is SP Setia for its astute management, size and liquidity. Figure 17: Sector reported net profit (including exceptional items) and related valuations Reported earnings growth (%) P/E (x) P/NTA (x) ROE (%) Div yld (%) CY08 CY09 CY10 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY09 CY09 CY10 CY09 Automobiles and Parts 47.2% -47.0% 63.6% 9.4 21.2 13.0 0.8 4.0% 6.4% 3.8% Conglomerates 30.2% -29.1% 21.9% 11.6 19.5 16.0 1.9 9.9% 11.5% 4.2% Construction and Materials 33.7% -8.6% 22.4% 12.0 15.6 12.8 1.7 10.8% 13.2% 3.6% Consumer -36.1% 21.1% 4.6% 15.4 15.1 14.4 6.4 42.2% 43.8% 7.8% Financial Services -6.1% 2.2% 18.9% 10.9 12.7 10.7 1.5 12.2% 13.1% 5.7% Forestry and Paper -13.7% -12.8% 7.9% 3.3 4.5 4.2 0.3 7.8% 7.8% 5.8% Industrial Goods and Services11.7% -21.0% 21.8% 6.4 9.7 8.0 1.4 15.7% 16.8% 3.1% Infrastructure -43.8% 5.3% 6.5% 13.8 15.6 14.6 2.9 18.8% 20.0% 6.6% Media 19.6% 18.5% 22.8% 16.9 17.0 13.8 2.2 13.4% 15.7% 5.4% Oil and Gas -33.5% 20.5% 7.0% 11.9 11.8 11.0 1.3 12.1% 11.3% 5.7% Oil Equipment and Services 73.6% -6.0% 14.5% 8.9 11.3 9.9 2.7 24.5% 26.8% 2.7% Plantations 24.2% -32.9% 29.4% 11.7 20.7 16.0 2.4 13.7% 14.3% 2.6% Property -21.3% 2.2% 7.7% 13.0 15.2 14.1 1.0 6.4% 6.6% 4.5% Technology -33.3% -50.0% 54.7% 10.3 24.5 15.8 1.3 5.3% 8.1% 4.6% Telecommunications -53.5% 5.1% 20.7% 14.2 16.1 13.3 1.8 11.8% 13.4% 12.8% Transportation -58.5% 11.3% 57.1% 18.9 20.2 12.9 1.5 6.9% 11.1% 4.5% Travel and Leisure 18.3% -22.0% 2.2% 9.6 14.7 14.4 1.8 12.9% 11.9% 2.7% Utilities -39.6% 2.3% 24.1% 12.0 14.0 11.3 1.4 11.2% 11.2% 3.3% Note: Numbers may not be comparable to KLCI data presented earlier as these numbers include exceptionals and non-KLCI companies Source: CIMB estimates Figure 18: KLCI statistics KLCI Statistics (@ 1044) 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F P/E (x, pre-EI) 15.7 16.9 12.4 15.6 12.7 P/E (x, after EI) 14.3 16.0 13.6 15.6 12.7 P/E (x, core) 16.7 17.7 12.1 15.2 12.8 Core EPS growth (% ) 19.2% 24.3% -10.9% -5.7% 19.0% P/BV (x) 2.0 2.5 1.5 1.7 1.6 Dividend yield (%) 5.3% 4.6% 6.1% 5.3% 5.1% EV/EBITDA (x) 8.6 10.0 7.1 8.1 7.1 P/FCF (x, equity) 27.4 19.9 16.6 22.1 17.0 P/FCF (x, firm) 24.4 17.8 1,153.1 14.0 14.6 Net gearing (%) 33% 23% 30% 24% 20% ROE (%, recurring) 13.2% 15.3% 12.9% 11.4% 12.6% Source: CIMB estimates [ 9 ]
  • 10. Regional comparison The resurgence of regional markets has reduced Malaysia’s P/E premium over the region from 40-45% earlier in the year to 14-17%. Malaysia’s 2010 P/E is no longer the highest in the region. Its EPS contraction in 2009 is slightly below average but 2010 is slightly above average. This puts Malaysia’s valuations broadly in line with the region. Figure 19: Regional comparisons as at end-May 09 Core P/E (x) Core EPS growth 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 HK ( CIMB coverage) 12.2 12.8 10.6 30.9% -5.4% 21.6% JCI (ID) 12.0 12.5 11.1 6.4% -3.7% 12.9% KLCI (MY) 12.1 15.3 12.8 -10.9% -5.7% 19.0% FSSTI (SG) 14.0 17.1 13.6 -13.3% -17.8% 25.8% SET (TH) 10.9 10.9 9.5 -4.4% -0.6% 14.4% Simple Region x KL avg 12.3 13.3 11.2 4.9% -6.9% 18.7% KLCI PER premium vs region 17.3% 14.8% 14.3% Source: CIMB Portfolio investment flows Malaysia has suffered four consecutive quarters of outflows of portfolio investments. The outflows were heaviest from 2Q08 to 4Q08. 1Q09 still saw an outflow but the quantum has fallen substantially. We believe 2Q09 could reverse into positive territory should the markets hold up in June as Apr already enjoyed a net inflow of foreign funds, the first in 13 months. Figure 20: Quarterly net portfolio fund flows into Malaysia 30,000 Highest quarterly inflow on record in 1Q07 = RM25.6bn 20,000 10,000 0 RM million (10,000)1Q-95 1Q-96 1Q-97 1Q-98 1Q-99 1Q-00 1Q-01 1Q-02 1Q-03 1Q-04 1Q-05 1Q-06 1Q-07 1Q-08 1Q-09 (20,000) (30,000) Massive outflow in 4Q08= RM33.2bn (40,000) (50,000) Massive outflow in 3Q08= RM56.20bn (60,000) Source: BNM Recommendation changes For the first time in five quarters, we made almost as many recommendation upgrades as downgrades. This is a major improvement and ties in with our upgrade of Malaysia from neutral to Overweight on 2 Apr. After the upgrade, we also upgraded the banking and property sectors as well as other high-beta stocks such as Bursa Malaysia. Nonetheless, we made a sizeable number of downgrades as we downgraded low-beta defensive sectors and stocks that have outperformed such as the tobacco, brewery and consumer stocks. All in all, the number of stocks we upgraded jumped to 13 (three leading up to Feb 09 and eight up to Nov 08) while the number downgraded increased to 14 (11 leading up to Feb 09 and 16 up to Nov 08). The downgrade to upgrade ratio was only to 1.1;1, against the lopsided 3.7:1 in Feb 08, 2:1 in Nov 08 and 8.25:1 in Aug 08. [ 10 ]
  • 11. Figure 21: Recommendation changes over past 3 months Upgrades Alliance Financial Group (N to O) - undemanding valuation and revival of loan growth in CY10. Astro (U to TB) - Upgraded due to diminishing risks from Indonesia and minimal exposure to adex. Axiata (N to O) - Overhang lifted, more positive view of Celcom and Idea. Bursa Malaysia (U to TB) - Positive market outlook and higher tradin g value to spur earnings. IOI Corp (U to N) - Easing forex loss concern and beneficiary of shift to new indices Kurnia Asia (U to TB) - Better underlying surplus and investment income. Lafarge M Cement (TB to O) - 1Q results beat expectations and we raised earinings forecasts and target prices. Mah Sing (U to N) - Property stocks possess high-beta features and Mah Sing is one of the favourites in the sector. Malayan Banking (U to N) - Strong earnings recovery in FY10 and better-than-expected loan growth and NPL ratio. Sime Darby (U to TB) - Beneficiary of move to new in dices and potential M&As SP Setia (U to TB) - Upgraded due to its status as the key proxy for the property sector due to its management, size and liq uidity. Supermax (N to TB) - Upgraded due to improvement in prospects with the write-off of APLI, better-than-expected 1Q results and improving demand. UM Land (U to TB) - Trading at steep discounts to RNAV and NTA. Downgrades ACPI (N to U) - Results were a big disappointment and we cut forecasts substantially. BAT (N to U) - Unexciting growth prospects, coupled with shift of preference to higher-beta pla ys. Bin tulu Port (O to N) - The stock's outperformance rela tive to KLCI could reverse due to its defensive qualities which are not favoured in rebounds. Carlsberg Brewery (TS to U) - Lost the assurance of attractive dividends. Cost pressures continue to weigh down operations. Dialog (OP to UP) - Limited upside to target price and demanding valuations DiGi (O to N) - Slowing growth momentum from foreign worker and low-end prepaid users, and weaker net adds. Hap Seng Plantations (N to U) - Share price outperformance after our recent upgrade has made valuations le ss attractive. Imaspro Corp (N to U) - Subdued outlook as demand for herbicide/pesticid e is unlikely to pick up strongly after CPO price skid from its Mar 08 highs. JT International (N to U) - Growth potential limited by tough operating environment, coupled with shift of preference to higher-beta plays. MCI (N to U) - Earnin gs are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume. Nestle (N to U) - Limited upside to target price and demanding valuations NSTP (N to U) - Earnings are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume. Star Publications (N to UP) - Earnings are likely to be at risk due to deteriorating newspaper ad volume. Telekom (O to N) - Share price nearing our target price and lacks catalysts. Source: CIMB estimates Figure 22: Top picks 29/05/09 Tgt. Price Basis of P/E EPS P/NTA ROE Yld Company (RM) (RM) Upside Target Price CY09 CY10 CAGR CY09 CY09 CY10 CY09 KLCI 1,044 1,220 16.8% 15x P/E 15.2 12.8 1.8% 1.7 11.4% 12.6% 5.3% Big Caps (mkt cap >RM5bn) Axiata 2.29 2.75 20.1% SOP based target price 11.9 11.2 -5.6% 1.8 8.6% 9.3% 0.0% Berjaya Sports Toto 4.72 5.65 19.7% 5% discount to DDM 14.9 14.3 2.2% (36.3) 106.3% 92.9% 7.1% Genting 5.45 6.80 24.8% 10% disc to SOP RNAV 16.8 18.1 -18.0% 2.1 8.6% 8.2% 1.3% Public Bank 8.60 11.40 32.6% 2-stage DDM 12.2 10.1 12.8% 3.5 24.0% 25.6% 8.7% Resorts 2.76 3.30 19.6% 10% disc to SOP RNAV 11.7 11.5 1.1% 1.6 14.8% 13.0% 2.6% RHB Cap 4.10 5.22 27.3% 2-stage DDM 11.8 10.3 19.4% 2.0 9.3% 10.1% 3.4% Tanjong 13.50 16.60 23.0% 20% discount to SOP 8.9 8.0 4.1% 1.5 17.8% 18.0% 7.0% YTL Power 2.11 2.61 23.7% SOP value 11.9 10.3 3.2% 1.8 14.4% 15.7% 7.3% Mid caps (mkt cap <RM5bn) Air Asia 1.30 1.80 38.5% P/E 7x 5.2 5.1 95.0% 2.0 36.4% 27.1% 0.0% Alliance Financial 2.17 2.40 10.6% 2-stage DDM 12.0 9.5 110.5% 1.3 10.0% 11.7% 2.5% Kencana 1.84 2.41 31.0% 13.5x CY10 P/E 11.6 10.3 24.7% 6.6 58.5% 42.7% 0.8% Lafarge MC 4.90 5.57 13.7% 13.5x P/E and 1.1x P/BV 11.4 9.6 9.4% 2.2 11.9% 13.6% 4.7% SapCrest 1.46 1.87 28.1% 13.5 CY10 P/E 13.1 10.6 23.8% 1.5 10.4% 12.1% 4.1% Tan Chong 1.70 2.00 17.6% 8x CY10 P/E 8.1 6.7 6.7% 0.7 9.5% 10.8% 5.9% Top Glove 5.85 6.39 9.2% 10% disc to 13.5x P/E 12.65 11.5 16.2% 2.1 18.6% 17.3% 2.6% Wah Seong 1.81 2.42 33.7% 13.5x CY10 P/E 8.9 8.0 10.7% 3.2 31.9% 34.1% 3.9% Small caps (mkt cap < RM1bn) Eksons 0.69 0.90 30.4% 0.5x Px/NTA 4.7 4.6 21.4% 0.4 8.3% 7.9% 5.9% Kossan 3.50 4.98 42.3% 30% disc to 13.5x P/E 7.8 6.6 15.3% 1.5 21.0% 19.8% 3.0% Petra Perdana 2.59 3.86 49.0% SOP value 12.3 5.9 34.1% 1.8 19.2% 26.3% 1.1% QSR Brands 2.89 5.54 91.7% 16x CY10 P/E 9.2 8.4 13.5% 2.1 22.1% 24.3% 4.2% Source: CIMB estimates [ 11 ]
  • 12. Figure 23: Top picks by category GROWTH DIVIDENDS Kencana B Sports Toto Top Glov e Public Bank Tanjong Air Asia Kossan SapuraCrest Eksons Wah Seong Petra Perdana YTL Pow er Ax iata Tan Chong Lafarge Alliance Financial Resorts QSR Genting RHB Cap UNDEMANDING VALUATIONS Source: CIMB estimates Figure 24: Summary of earning outperformances / underperformances for stocks under coverage Above expectations Below expectations AirAsia Strong y ield AFG Bhd Higher impairment losses and LLP Ax iata Stronger performance at Celcom & TMIB. Astro Higher than ex pected content cost HL Bank Low er LLP and 5% rise in rev enue B Toto Poorer luck factor Kurnia Better inv est. income & underw riting surplus Dialog Margin pressure at ov erseas units Lafarge M Cement Boosted by better domestic & ex port prices Dreamgate Weak rev enue + still high costs MAS Demand w eakening Genting Higher MI and tax es May bank Higher LLP and low er inv estment income Hap Seng Plantation Low er FFB y ield MPI Economic headw inds buffeted rev JobStreet Topline fared relativ ely w ell; margins below ex p PLUS Strong traffic v olumes May bulk Low er dry bulk rates Tenaga Low er-than-ex pected coal usage MCI Ltd Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume Unisem Economy battered top line MISC Large liner losses, low er tanker rates MTD ACPI India and Thai continue losses NSTP Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume Proton Higher operating and input costs. Sime Darby Weak plantation and O&G SP Setia Margin squeeze due to material costs Star Deteriorating new spaper ad-v olume Suria Capital Weak port div ision and engineering div ision. Tanjong Pow er and TI disappointed Uchi Regulatory scheme affecting them UMW Weak auto div ision Within expectations Tan Chong Affin AMMB Bursa EON Capital Public Bank RHB Capital nn Joo A Carlsberg F&N Guinness Nestle QSR Brands Eksons Asia File Kossan Pelikan Top Glove Wellcall Ekovest Gamuda IJM LCL Puncak Niaga MRCB WCT Media Prima Kencana Petra Perdana etronas Dagangan Wah Seong P Asiatic IOI Corp KLK Hunza Prop KLCC PropertyDiGi.com Telekom BAT JTI Bintulu Port YTL Power Resorts Source: CIMB estimates [ 12 ]
  • 13. Appendix: Companies’ 1Q09 results and comments Company Period Deviation in ann. % growth in net profit Comments Chg in EPS core net profit vs. yoy qoq YTD (forward yrs) CIMB Consensus Automotive -142.9% for FY10, and - Proton 4QFY09 nm nm 129 (17) (123) Higher operating and input costs. 76.4% for FY11 Tan Chong 1QFY09 19% 13% (23) 48 (23) None Expect weaker quarters ahead UMW 1QFY09 39% 43% (53) (43) (53) -6% to -26% for FY09-11 Weak auto division Banking & Finance Affin 1QFY09 68% 54% (1) 9 (1) No change 30% drop in non-int. and 14.8% rise in LLP Alliance 4QFY09 -28% -29% (99) (98) (40) No change Higher impairment losses and LLP AMMB 4QFY09 1% 3% (17) (28) 29 No change Lower MI and 33% drop in LLP Bursa 1QFY09 -60% -37% (63) 15 (63) No change 65% plunge in 1Q market trading value EON Capital 1QFY09 86% 47% 4 (11) 4 No change 58% drop in LLP offsetting lower NIM HL Bank 3QFY09 21% 16% 0 (20) 16 +10% Lower LLP and 5% rise in revenue Maybank 3QFY09 13% -2% (34) (31) (19) 5% to 9% Higher LLP and lower investment income RHB Capital 1QFY09 25% 4% 3 16 3 +2.1% RM20m write-back but LLP +15% Building materials Ann Joo 1QFY09 -154% -117% (140) (80) (140) No change Expect better quarters ahead. Lafarge M C 1QFY09 107% 111% 47 2 47 4 to 7% Boosted by better domestic & export prices Conglomerate Sime Darby 3QFY09 -10% -20% (85) 116 (45) +2% to -7% for FY09-11 Weak plantation and O&G Food & beverage Carlsberg 1QFY09 7% 11% (19) 123 (19) No change Stronger on seasonal factors. F&N 2QFY09 18% 14% 20 5 13 No change Soft drink sales gained from CNY timing Guinness 3QFY09 12% 12% (10) (6) 8 No change Stronger on seasonal factors. QSR Brands 1QFY09 -21% None (1) (7) (1) No change Same-store growth down on CNY timing Gaming B Toto 3QFY09 -10% -4% (1) (15) 5 -10% for FY09 Poorer luck factor Dreamgate 1QFY09 -537% -385% (268) 114 (268) -7% to -22% Weak revenue + still high costs Genting 1QFY09 -23% -12% (41) (63) (41) -4% to -6% Higher MI and taxes Resorts 1QFY09 -14% -2% 3 (18) 3 -2% to -3% Expect seasonally stronger 2H Tanjong 4QFY09 -15% -12% (53) (34) (8) -7% to -8% Power and TI disappointed Industrial Eksons 4QFY09 7% -12% (66) (40) (66) No change Weak plywood demand and prices Asia File 4QFY09 3% -10% 60 183 60 No change Slow Europe and US sales growth Kossan 1QFY09 -21% -22% 1 (11) 1 No change Expect improving earnings in future Pelikan 1QFY09 2% -10% na (118) na No change Slowdown in Europe sales Top Glove 2QFY09 2% 7% 28 4 22 No change Higher ASP and stronger USD Wellcall 2QFY09 0% -10% (55) (44) 4 No change Demand slowdown due to global crisis Infrastructure MTD ACPI 4QFY09 -50% -56% 197 145 197 -40 To -44% India and Thai continue losses Ekovest 3QFY09 -25% -25% (72) (38) (59) No change Diminishing orderbook Gamuda 2QFY09 -23% -24% (46) (11) (42) No change Construction and property weakness IJM 4QFY09 -0.01% -0.01% (24) (7) (1) No change Construction outlook improves LCL 1QFY09 -5% -8% (251) (13) (251) No change Furthe provision for Dubai jobs PLUS 1QFY09 +7% +1% 1 (6) 1 +1.8% to +1.9% Strong traffic volumes Puncak Niaga 1QFY09 -98% -98% (86) (138) (86) No change Better quarters ahead from tariff hike MRCB 1QFY09 -87% -97% (99) (101) (99) No change Construction and property to improve WCT 1QFY09 +18% 0.16 (29) 6 (29) No change Expecting a weak 4Q Insurance Kurnia Asia 3QFY09 120% 156% na. na. na. +90% to +200% Better invt income & underwriting surplus Source: Company, CIMB estimates [ continued on the following page… ] [ 13 ]
  • 14. [ continued from the previous page… ] Appendix: Companies’ 1Q09 results and comments (continued) Company Period Deviation in ann. % growth in net profit Comments Chg in EPS Core net profit vs. yoy qoq YTD (forward yrs) CIMB Consensus Media Astro 4QFY09 -31% >+100% (116) 24 84 -30% to -65% Higher-than-expected content cost Media Prima 1QFY09 -70.6% -85 (80) (91) (80) No change 1Q09 is usually the weakest NSTP 1QFY09 <-100% <-100% (132) (140) (132) -30% Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume MCI Ltd 4QFY09 -22% -16% (164) (113) 56 -23% to -27% Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume Star 1QFY09 -60% -49% (57) (51) (57) -14% to -22% Deterioratin g newspaper ad volume Oil & gas Dialog 3QFY09 -25% -25% (7) (6) 4 -14% to -17% Margin pressure at overseas units Kencana 2QFY09 -8% -4% 26 (18) 52 None KM1 contributes for the first full year Petra Perdana 1QFY09 -49% -48% 4 188 4 -5% to -6% Expect stronger 2H due to a bigger fleet Petronas Dagangan 4QFY09 3% -1% 3 305 (13) No change Margin improvement & volume recovery Wah Seong 1QFY09 -22% -20% (10) 9 9 No change Expect more SSGP pipe shipments Plantations Asiatic 1QFY09 -34% -40% (68) 0 (68) No change Weak CPO price and output Hap Seng Plantation 1QFY09 -60% -68% - (53) - - 5% for FY09 Lower FFB yield IOI Corp 3QFY09 -1% -1% (58) (3) (30) 2% to -17% for FY09-11 Higher forex loss KLK 2QFY09 1% 0% -52 -50 -36 - 5% for FY09 Weak CPO price and output Property +1.1% to +1.3% for FY09- Hunza Prop 3QFY09 -4% -4% (40) (15) (52) Soft sales, but margins boost from Infinity 11 KLCC Property 4QFY09 3% 2% (2) (4) 4 No change Earnings growth from office and mall SP Setia 1QFY09 -44% -47% (36) (37) (36) -5% to -31% Margin squeeze due to material costs Technology JobStreet 1QFY09 -18.2% -16.1% (47) (21) (47) -9% to -20% Topline fared relatively well; margins below exp MPI 3QFY09 151% 122% (573) (911) (116) +47% to +148% Economic headwinds buffeted rev Uchi 1QFY09 -32% 145% (53) (20) (53) -28% to -36% Regulatory scheme affecting them Telecommunications DiGi.com 1QFY09 -4% 3% (6) (2) (6) -0.03 Slowing rev growth and net adds Axiata 1QFY09 -3% -6% (28) (1,424) (28) 7-10% Stronger performance at Celcom & TMIB. Telekom 1QFY09 53% 50% (20) 65 (20) -2% to -14% Lower opex and weakness in broadband Tobacco BAT 1QFY09 -1% -1% (3) 19 (3) -1.8% to -2.7% for FY09-11 Impact from illicit trade and brand migration JTI 1QFY09 28% 27% 7 251 7 No change Improved sales volu me. Transportation +8% FY09, +26% FY10, AirAsia 1QFY09 20% 62% 603 16 (27) Strong yield +19% FY11 Bintulu Port 1QFY09 27% 27% (3) 43 (3) -3.1% to -6.1% for FY09-10 Weaker 2H expected from dredging costs. MISC 4QFY09 -7% -12% (73) (27) (37) -6% FY10, -5% FY11 Large liner losses, lower tanker rates -30% FY09, -22% FY10, - Maybulk 1QFY09 -73% -69% (86) 73 (96) Lower dry bulk rates 28% FY11 -187% for FY09, +25% MAS 4QFY08 341% -32% (86) 130 (84) Demand weakening FY10 Suria Capital 1QFY09 -20% -7% (16) 215 (16) -5% to -14% for FY09-11 Weak port division and engineering division. Utilities +2.2 to +4.6% increase in Tenaga 2QFY09 16% 28% 3 60 (37) Lower-than-expected coal usage FY09-11 YTL Power 3QFY09 -5% -9% (20) 3 (19) No changes Expect stronger quarters ahead Source: Company, CIMB estimates [ 14 ]
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