Disinflation momentum continues… Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2005=100) moderated further in Mar ’09 to 3.5% YoY (Maybank IB estimate: 3.7% YoY; Consensus estimate: 3.6% YoY) from 3.7% YoY in Feb 09 and the peak of 8.5% YoY in Jul-Aug ‘08. This marked the seventh consecutive month of disinflation. MoM, inflation rate was down by 0.2%, the sixth sequential drop over the past seven months. Led by “disinflation” in Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages (FNAB) prices and “deflation” in Transport costs... The YoY increase in FNAB prices slowed for the sixth straight month while Transport costs declined for the fourth month in a row. Both account for 47.3% of CPI’s basket of goods and services and ¾ of last month inflation rate. There were no significant movements or notable changes in the price trends of other goods and services. Consequently, our measure of CPI ex-FNAB and Transport was little changed at 2.1% YoY last month compared with 2.2% YoY in the preceding month. Technical deflation is on the card as % YoY monthly inflation rate may turn negative between mid-year up to late-3Q09 or early-4Q09 due to the high-base from last year’s sharp hike in fuel and energy prices, as well as taking cue from the producer price index (PPI) which has turned negative since Nov ‘08. Therefore, maintaining our 2009 and 2010 inflation rate forecasts of 1% and 1.5% respectively, which is a marked deceleration from 5.4% in 2008 amid the environment of global/local economic downturn and lower commodity prices. Year-to-date inflation rate is 3.7%.

1. Equity Research
PP11072/03/2010 (023549)
Economics 23 April 2009
CPI, Mar 09 Disinflation momentum continues…
Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2005=100) moderated further in Mar
Suhaimi Ilias ’09 to 3.5% YoY (Maybank IB estimate: 3.7% YoY; Consensus
Suhaimi_ilias@maybank-ib.com estimate: 3.6% YoY) from 3.7% YoY in Feb 09 and the peak of 8.5%
(603) 2297 8682 YoY in Jul-Aug ‘08. This marked the seventh consecutive month of
disinflation. MoM, inflation rate was down by 0.2%, the sixth sequential
Ramesh Lankanathan drop over the past seven months.
ramesh@maybank-ib.com Led by “disinflation” in Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages
(603) 2297 8685 (FNAB) prices and “deflation” in Transport costs... The YoY
increase in FNAB prices slowed for the sixth straight month while
Transport costs declined for the fourth month in a row. Both account
for 47.3% of CPI’s basket of goods and services and ¾ of last month
inflation rate. There were no significant movements or notable changes
in the price trends of other goods and services. Consequently, our
measure of CPI ex-FNAB and Transport was little changed at 2.1%
YoY last month compared with 2.2% YoY in the preceding month.
Technical deflation is on the card as % YoY monthly inflation rate
may turn negative between mid-year up to late-3Q09 or early-4Q09 due
to the high-base from last year’s sharp hike in fuel and energy prices,
as well as taking cue from the producer price index (PPI) which has
turned negative since Nov ‘08.
Therefore, maintaining our 2009 and 2010 inflation rate forecasts
of 1% and 1.5% respectively, which is a marked deceleration from
5.4% in 2008 amid the environment of global/local economic downturn
and lower commodity prices. Year-to-date inflation rate is 3.7%.
Table 1: Malaysia: Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2005=100) (% YoY)
YTD
Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 2008
09
Total 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.7 5.4
Food and Non-Alcoholic
10.4 9.8 9.2 8.8 9.2 8.8
Beverages
Alcoholic Beverages
8.4 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.3 7.3
and Tobacco
Clothing and Footwear (0.5) (0.8) (0.6) (0.6) (0.8) (0.5)
Housing, Water,
Electricity, Gas and 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6
Other Fuels
Furniture, Household
Equipment and Routine
4.6 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.6 3.0
Household
Maintenance
Health 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.2
Transport (0.3) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) (2.1) 8.8
Communication (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.6)
Recreation Services
1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.8
and Culture
Education 2.8 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.3
Restaurants & Hotels 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.4 6.6
Miscellaneous Goods &
2.6 2.7 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3
Services
Source: Dept. of Statistics

2. Consumer Price Index
Malaysia: Consumer Price Index (% YoY)
14 25
12 20
10
15
Transport (RHS)
8
10
6
FNAB 5
4
CPI 0
2
Utilities, Housing & Other Fuels
0 (5)
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
May-02
May-03
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
Source: Department of Statistics
CPI: Contribution to Growth (percentage points)
4.0
Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Food and Non-Alcholic
Restautants & Hotels
Alcoholic Beverages &
Housing, Water, Electricity, G
Others
Transport (incl. fuel)
(1.0)
Beverages
as & Other Fuels
Tobacco
Source: Maybank-IB
Malaysia: Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index (% YoY)
9 15
8
10
7
PPI (RHS)
6
5
5
4
0
3
2
(5)
1 CPI (LHS)
0 (10)
Nov-00
Nov-05
Jan-00
Jun-00
Jan-05
Jun-05
Jul-02
Jul-07
May-03
May-08
Feb-02
Mar-04
Feb-07
Mar-09
Apr-01
Oct-03
Apr-06
Oct-08
Sep-01
Dec-02
Aug-04
Sep-06
Dec-07
(1)
(2) (15)
Source: Maybank-IB
23 April 2009 Page 2 of 4

3. Consumer Price Index
Global: Consumer Price Index (% YoY)
Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 YTD 09 2008
UK 3.1 3.0 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.6
Eurozone 1.6 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.0 3.3
Germany 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.8 2.8
US 0.1 0.0 0.2 (0.4) (0.1) 3.9
Japan 0.4 0.0 (0.1) - (0.1) 1.4
OECD 1.6 1.3 1.3 - 1.3 3.6
Russia 13.3 13.4 13.9 14.0 13.8 14.1
Brazil 5.9 5.8 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.7
India 5.9 4.4 2.4 0.3 2.2 9.1
China 1.2 1.0 (1.6) (1.2) (0.6) 5.9
S. Korea 4.1 3.7 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.7
Hong Kong 2.1 3.1 0.8 - 2.0 4.3
Singapore 4.3 2.9 1.9 - 2.4 6.5
Taiwan 1.3 1.5 (1.3) (0.2) 0.0 3.5
Vietnam 19.9 17.5 14.8 11.3 14.5 23.1
Indonesia 11.1 9.2 8.6 7.9 8.6 10.3
Philippines 8.0 7.1 7.3 6.4 6.9 9.3
Malaysia 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.7 5.4
Thailand 0.4 (0.4) (0.1) (0.2) (0.2) 5.5
Source: Bloomberg
Global Inflation Rate (% YoY)
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Oct-01
Apr-05
Oct-08
Aug-00
Dec-02
Sep-04
Nov-05
Aug-07
Jan-00
Jun-06
Jan-07
Jul-03
May-02
Mar-01
Feb-04
Mar-08
Note: Weighted Average CPI of OECD, BRIC, Asian NIEs and ASEAN
Source: Maybank-IB
23 April 2009 Page 3 of 4

4. Consumer Price Index
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system:
STRONG BUY Total return is expected to exceed 20% in the next 12 months; high conviction call
BUY Total return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months
HOLD Total return is expected to be between above 0% to 10% in the next 12 months
FULLY VALUED Total return is expected to be between -10% and 0% in the next 12 months
SELL Total return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months
TRADING BUY Total return is expected to be between 10-20% in the next 6 months arising from positive newsflow e.g. mergers and
acquisition, corporate restructuring, and potential of obtaining new projects. However, the upside may or may not be
sustainable
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only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not
carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):
Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings
BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth
CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio
Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter
CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset
DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity
DPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders’ Funds
EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year
EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date
EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax
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23 April 2009 Page 4 of 4