1. BoomBustBlog.com
By Reggie Middleton’s
Review next
slide:

2.  Hindsight Is 20/20, And As Luck Has It Our Foresight On
Research in Motion Was Right On The Money Two Years
Ago............................
In the early spring of 2010, while trading at over $60 per share and still a darling
of the street and corporate users, I warned that RIMM not only would not be able
to compete with Android and iOS, but will be a phenomenal short. Well, two years
later, while trading in the low teens the RIMM research is still pushing out profits.
Research in Motion reported a minutes ago and...
RESEARCH IN MOTION 4Q REV. $4.19B, EST. $4.51B
RESEARCH IN MOTION 4Q ADJ. EPS 80C, EST. 81C
RESEARCH IN MOTIO SAYS BALSILLIE RESIGNS FROM BOARD
RESEARCH IN MOTION SAYS JIM ROWAN TO LEAVE
RIMM WONT' GIVE QUANTIVE VIEWS DUE TO LONG TERM FOCUS
RESEARCH IN MOTION REVIEWING STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES

3. BoomBustBlog banking and tech research has been quite prescient for 2010/2011.
Subscribers who took advantage of this deserve kudos. To wit, and as excerpted
from
Another RIMM Job? It's Amazing How Many Institutions Don't Read The BoomBust!
Let's try this again:
As Forecast Last Year and Clearly Demonstrated This Year, Research in Motion's Proble
Research in Motion has been one of the most successful tech shorts of this blog's
history (thus far). We first recommended a short last year and reiterated it in the fist
quarter of this year. Reference:
•BoomBustBlog Research Performs a RIM Job!
•BoomBustBlog's Fundamental/Forensic Analysis of Research in Motion Has Returned 2
This is a snapshot of RIMM as of the writing of this article...

4. As you can see, the results have been spectacular,
particular if well timed puts have been put to use. In
January I posted:
 I personally see a clear leader in mobile
computing becoming visible in 2012. Using
options, a minimum of 2012 expiration OTM
and ATM contracts can be purchase at the
most optimistic break points demarcated by
the model above after being populated with
assumptions you feel most valid.
I will have a proprietary BoomBustBlog option model
available for download to paying subscribers by the end of
next week, at which time we will revisit the analysis above.
A 50% drop in price later... On that note, Bloomberg reports:
RIM to Cut 2,000 Jobs as BlackBerry Loses Share to IPhone

5. I personally see a clear leader in mobile computing becoming
visible in 2012. Using options, a minimum of 2012 expiration
OTM and ATM contracts can be purchase at the most optimistic
break points demarcated by the model above after being
populated with assumptions you feel most valid. I will have a
proprietary BoomBustBlog option model available for download
to paying subscribers by the end of next week, at which time we
will revisit the analysis above.
A 50% drop in price later... On that note, Bloomberg reports:
RIM to Cut 2,000 Jobs as BlackBerry Loses Share to IPhone
Google's Android has, by far, inflicted much more
damage to RIM than Apple ever has. This was
easily seen over 13 months ago, at least by
BoomBust Bloggers, referencing
BoomBustBlog Research Performs a RIM Job!...
Page 5 of our Research in Motion forensic analysis (released in the summer of 2010
- RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Professional & Institutional or
RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Retail) clearly stated that while we
expected RIMM’s handset shipments to rise as a result of a rapidly expanding
smartphone market, it will lose considerable market share....

6. As it turns out, it appears that we were erred slightly to the optimistic side with an 18%
market share estimate for 2010. By the end of the 3rd quarter, RIM has fallen to 15.3%
according to information calculated from IDC, and its decent has accelerated far faster
than even we (the bears) have anticipated – a full 350 basis points for the quarter. This
is 6x the decent of last quarter and 7 x the decent of the quarter before that. It is quite
safe to assume that they will be materially below this point at year end (the data that we
crunch is lagged by a quarter). This market share loss is most assuredly caused by the
outsized growth of Android, which I will demonstrate in a minute. Below are charts
generated from an updated version of the subscriber document
Smartphone Market Model – Blog Download Version:

7. As you can see above, for the full year of 2010 RIM has trailed smartphone market
penetration growth and that trail has increased each and every quarter with the rate of
decent rapidly increasing.
RIM’s share price has benefited from an
increasing equity market as well as the
announcement of new products. The Torch,
although possessive of redeeming new
qualities, is essentially still a generation
behind Apple and 1.5 generations behind
Android. See
RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?…
Research in Motion is following the
EXACT path we at BoomBustBlog had
laid out for it since the 3rd quarter of
2010.
Those that chose to follow this short recommendation had plenty of tools to assist in the
decision making:

8. RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Professional & Institutional: a 45 page
analysis of RIMM, it’s strengths, weaknesses and prospects and probably the most
t
thorough valuation that I know of concerning this company.
RIMM Forensic Analysis and Valuation – Retail: a 10 page abridged version
for my retail clients, containing all that you need to know including the market
scenario valuation analysis (see
Many More Black Eyes for the Blackberry? A Complete Forensic Analysis of Researc
for more information).
Smartphone Market Model – Blog Download Version: the interactive smart
phone market analysis and penetration model, includes data for HTC, Apple,
N
Nokia and Research in Motion
RIMM Multivariate Valuation Mode
: the big Kahuna, for
professional and institutional
subscribers only. Please
review the following
overview of the model.
RIM Model Assumptions

9. RIM Model Factors Driving Growth
After populating the assumptions tab,
jump to the “Factors Driving Growth”
tab and choose the player whose
market share and penetration data
you want to populate the valuation
model for the sake of comparison.
The choices are “Nokia”, “RIMM”,
“Apple”, “HTC” and “Others”. This tab
is annual data only.
RIM Model Quarterly Factors (driving growth)
On the next tab, you can do the
same as the previous (this tab is
quarterly growth). Each of the
growth tabs has charts that are print
and presentation quality. Just be
sure to tell everyone where you got
thesis, data and analysis from.....

10. Get more detail at : BoomBustBlog
Thanks……