7. But new data only gets us so far…
Humans don’t have all the info, machines don’t have all the smarts
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8. Hunchworks: hypothesis management
» System = people + processes + tech
» Break down the siloes: Engage and connect the global network of
UN and international development field staff with analysts and
decision makers
» Use the machines better: use agents to detect weak signals
» Use the people better: Encourage „hunches‟ (hypotheses) about
anomalous or interesting data and observations
» Encourage cooperation: Rapidly collect information about emerging
situations
» Combine strengths: mix human insight with data analysis results
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9. Hunch Mechanism
» Detect an interesting “weak signal”
» Hypothesize (make a hunch) about the nature of the signal
» Share the hunch with your social graph
» Attract related signals and evidence
» Verify hunch by engaging communities of practice
» Act
» Use confirmed hunch to refine trust within the system
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14. Issues: fun problems we’re working on
» Hunch set management
• Clustering: hunches are related
• Merging: hunches are the same thing
• Splitting: hunch has changed significantly
» Mixing human and bot users
• Autonomy: how to share information, decisions, responsibility
• Managing culture differences between humans and bots
» Managing credibility
• Rating hunches, users, data
• Overall and friends‟ ratings
» Hunch network as a reasoning system
• vs “a hunch is the discussion surrounding it”
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