1. 'Urban growth: Contemporary challenges‘ Anumita Roychowdhury Centre for Science and Environment New Delhi, April 10, 2007

2. Unprecedented urban growth: A global challenge 1950-2006: The urban population of the world has increased from 739 million to 3.2 billion. By 2025 around 65 per cent of the world’s population is projected to live in cities. By 2010 more than 75 per cent of the world’s urban population will live in poorer countries ( State of the World 2007 ). More than 40 per cent of the world children are estimated to be living in polluted cities of developing world ( WHO ). A billion more will be added over the next three decades in Asia – almost adding a whole new India. More than half of them will be living in cities What about India?

9. Air quality: an urban challenge More than half of the cities monitored have recorded critical levels of fine particulate matter (PM10)

10. The Gas Chamber: Poor people more vulnerable to air pollution related diseases WHO estimates 0.8 million deaths and 4.6 million lost life years every year globally. Two-third of this occurs in Asia. Premature Deaths Due to Outdoor Air Pollution

12. Explosive numbers: Trend towards auto dependent cities Transport infrastructure occupies significant part of the urban land

14. Note: * one car is equal to one PCU, 1 bus = 2.5 PCU, 1 scooter = 0.75 PCU Source: Anon 2003, Draft urban transport policy, Ministry of Urban Development, Delhi Personal vehicles use more road space, pollute more, meet less travel demand

16. Cars encourage urban sprawl The “Gurgaon” cataclysm Development and density controls also encourage move towards suburbs. Eg. Satellite towns around Delhi, Mumbai suburbs etc. Uncontrolled suburbanisation : Gurgaon , 32 kilometer from Delhi: 1961: 37868 population. 2001: 1.66 million. Car dependent city -- unfettered growth despite severe water constraints. 70% of water demand met from ground water. Alarming drop in ground water level. No land for solid waste disposal. Satellite townships have created 3.42 million daily trips -- of these 37 per cent of the trips are made from Delhi to NCR, 42 per cent from NCR to Delhi and the rest of the trips occur in NCR but outside Delhi – add to pollution and congestion. Global cities are focussing on re-urbanisation

17. How to assert importance of community, environmental and economic responsibilities in cities? Buses meet substantial travel demand in Delhi Yet buses bear significantly higher tax burden in India. Tax correction can push a large number of two wheeler users to buses Poor people spend higher share of income on travelling

18. Cities, cars and energy insecurity Transport energy demand has grown at 1.2 times the GDP growth rate. Transport sector is single largest user of oil and oil products – 30 per cent of total consumption. Personal transport uses almost all of petrol. Road transport as a whole consumes more than 62 per cent of diesel. ADB estimates; In India, consumption of fuels by vehicles in 2035 could be six times that of the 2005 level. Urban car travel consumes nearly twice as energy on average as average urban bus travel; 3.7 times more than the typical light rail or tram; 6.6 times more than average electric urban electric train

19. Are we losing advantage? Share of bigger cars increasing Small and medium cars will remain dominant. But…… Shift towards high end cars expected at a faster rate. SUV market is expected to develop rapidly in future

21. Poor mobility management By 2021 there will be a shortfall of nine million trips per day

22. Cities must be built on public transport

23. Public campaigns Urban crisis and urban protest

24. Targeting the Legislators

25. December 2002 -- Battle won: CNG programme established The current tally:  10,600 buses  52,623 Three-wheelers  10,350 private cars  4,497 mini buses  5,043 taxis  5,909 light commercial vehicles  689 Other commercial vehicles

26. Building public opinion

27. Pollution Per-Capita GDP “ The Kuznets Curve ” Business As Usual Alternative Path Of Progress The message: Leapfrog Avoid the polluting pathways of the West. Adopt an alternative path that is precautionary and preventive

28. Thank You