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Decision Support Tools
Informing Decision-Making in Marine Spatial
                        Planning Processes

                              November 9, 2011
Parametrix   Parametrix

Aquatera     Oregon State University

             Robust Decisions

             Aquatera
Point Absorber Offshore
                             Wave Energy Device Suitability



Wave Energy Potential                                                              Grid Connection


    Energy Model                                                         Distances to:


                                                                                 Utility network
  Wave energy data                        Site Quality
                                                                                   Substation

                                           Site Model



            Depth                       Distance to shore               Services port distance

             Deep water port distance                       Substrate
BASS

    OWET                Bayesian          Accord
  Cumulative           Networks to        Based
Effects Function   +     Track       +    Value
    Models             Uncertainty       Modeling

                          Data
                           &
                          Model
Distance to Shore
                               Substrate Type                                                    1NM            11.1
                                                                                                 1NM_3NM        11.1
                     Sand_or_Mud 25.0                                                            3NM_4NM        11.1
                                                                    Energy Potential
                     Gravel            25.0                                                      4NM_5NM        11.1                      Port Size
                     Bedrock           25.0                     High      33.3
                                                                Medium 33.3                      5NM_10NM       11.1            Deep Draft      33.3
                     All other         25.0                                                      10NM_15NM 11.1
                                                                Low       33.3                                                  Medium Draft 33.3
                                                                                                 15NM_20NM 11.1                 Shallow Draft 33.3
                                                                                                 20NM_25NM 11.1
                                                                                                 25NM           11.1                                        Distance to Port
                                             Water Depth                                                                                               5NM          12.5
                                       0m_30m      14.3                                                                                                5NM_10NM     12.5
   Substrate Depth                     30m_40m     14.3                                                                                                10NM_15NM 12.5
None     25.0                          40m_50m     14.3                                                                                                15NM_20NM 12.5
1m       25.0                          50m_75m     14.3                                                                                                20NM_25NM 12.5
1m_5m 25.0                             75m_100m    14.3                                                                                                25NM_30NM 12.5
5m       25.0                          100m_200m 14.3                                                                                                  30NM_50NM 12.5
                                       200m        14.3                                                                                                50NM         12.5




                                                                                                                                    Port Access
             Anchoring Suitability
                                                                                                                          Excellent         16.7
       Excellent        5.36
                                                                                                                          Acceptable        37.5
       Acceptable       11.6
       Possible         8.93                                                                                              Possible          29.2
       Not Acceptable 74.1                                                                                                Not Acceptable 16.7


  Anchoring Uncertainty
                                                                                  Device Suitability
  Hi      33.3                            Composite Anchoring
  Med     33.3                                                             Excellent        0.53
  Low     33.3                       Excellent       8.02                  Acceptable       7.35
                                     Acceptable      13.2                  Possible         10.9
                                     Possible        18.2                  Not Acceptable 81.2
                                     Not Acceptable 60.6
Alternative
   BASS Structure                              sites
                                                                                  Scientists
                                                                                  Developers
                                                                                  Agencies
                                                                                  Other Stakeholders
                                  Develop measuring
                                       criteria


Bayesian      Analyze device suitability:                 Accord   Collect Stakeholder Experiential info
                                                                   related to Scio-
Networks      Science based including
                                                                   economic, environmental and other
              uncertainty
                                                                   qualitative measures including
                                                                   uncertainty
                    Accord              Fuse results
                                                                                         Collect Stakeholder
                                                                                                values
                    Accord +                Display results
                    GIS Viewers             for review


                              Identify need for more
                          information, refinements and                                                BASS
                                      change
                                   Decision is Made

                                                One
                                             Preferred
                                            site option
No single raindrop believes it is to blame for the flood

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Ctws ocean energy halsey

  • 1. Decision Support Tools Informing Decision-Making in Marine Spatial Planning Processes November 9, 2011
  • 2. Parametrix Parametrix Aquatera Oregon State University Robust Decisions Aquatera
  • 3. Point Absorber Offshore Wave Energy Device Suitability Wave Energy Potential Grid Connection Energy Model Distances to: Utility network Wave energy data Site Quality Substation Site Model Depth Distance to shore Services port distance Deep water port distance Substrate
  • 4. BASS OWET Bayesian Accord Cumulative Networks to Based Effects Function + Track + Value Models Uncertainty Modeling Data & Model
  • 5. Distance to Shore Substrate Type 1NM 11.1 1NM_3NM 11.1 Sand_or_Mud 25.0 3NM_4NM 11.1 Energy Potential Gravel 25.0 4NM_5NM 11.1 Port Size Bedrock 25.0 High 33.3 Medium 33.3 5NM_10NM 11.1 Deep Draft 33.3 All other 25.0 10NM_15NM 11.1 Low 33.3 Medium Draft 33.3 15NM_20NM 11.1 Shallow Draft 33.3 20NM_25NM 11.1 25NM 11.1 Distance to Port Water Depth 5NM 12.5 0m_30m 14.3 5NM_10NM 12.5 Substrate Depth 30m_40m 14.3 10NM_15NM 12.5 None 25.0 40m_50m 14.3 15NM_20NM 12.5 1m 25.0 50m_75m 14.3 20NM_25NM 12.5 1m_5m 25.0 75m_100m 14.3 25NM_30NM 12.5 5m 25.0 100m_200m 14.3 30NM_50NM 12.5 200m 14.3 50NM 12.5 Port Access Anchoring Suitability Excellent 16.7 Excellent 5.36 Acceptable 37.5 Acceptable 11.6 Possible 8.93 Possible 29.2 Not Acceptable 74.1 Not Acceptable 16.7 Anchoring Uncertainty Device Suitability Hi 33.3 Composite Anchoring Med 33.3 Excellent 0.53 Low 33.3 Excellent 8.02 Acceptable 7.35 Acceptable 13.2 Possible 10.9 Possible 18.2 Not Acceptable 81.2 Not Acceptable 60.6
  • 6. Alternative BASS Structure sites Scientists Developers Agencies Other Stakeholders Develop measuring criteria Bayesian Analyze device suitability: Accord Collect Stakeholder Experiential info related to Scio- Networks Science based including economic, environmental and other uncertainty qualitative measures including uncertainty Accord Fuse results Collect Stakeholder values Accord + Display results GIS Viewers for review Identify need for more information, refinements and BASS change Decision is Made One Preferred site option
  • 7. No single raindrop believes it is to blame for the flood

Notas do Editor

  1. Agencies responsible for managing or regulating use of public resources need to be evaluating existing conditions and potential conflicts from an ecosystem services perspective.
  2. Example mapping.Whales – building on existing OWET research and regional experts.Visual Resources – Viewpoints at sea to land.Device suitability – point absorberOWETData supporting this is great.
  3. There are some important conclusions being reached by those doing work on data and tools to support MSP – those conclusions are shared and highlighted by the Report from the Presidents Council of Advisors on Science and Technology. Some of the key conclusions are the following: