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Semelhante a Incompleteness for Startups
Semelhante a Incompleteness for Startups (20)
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Incompleteness for Startups
- 1. Incompleteness for Startups By Max Skibinsky
- 3. 1. The Ultimate Theorem
- 4. Gödel 1 st Incompleteness Theorem • Ultimate Theorem • Why everything evolves • Why Everything is subject to change • Why things gets more complex over time
- 5. Gödel 1 st Incompleteness Theorem Any … theory (*) cannot be both consistent and!complete. For any!consistent… formal theory (*), there is an … statement that is true,!but not provable in the theory
- 6. Gödel Statement G: True yet Un- Provable in SYSTEM H
- 7. Gödel 1 st Incompleteness Theorem Nobody CAN BE TOLD WHAT THE MATRIX IS…
- 8. SMALL BROTHER: Turing Halting Problem Given a description of a computer program, its impossible to write a program to decide whether the program finishes running or continues to run forever
- 9. Sketch Proof Let say Halt(software,data) exits. Returns True or False What about G(s) = If Halt(s, s) then LoopForever else Stop Think what happens if you try to compute G(G). • If Halt(G,G) halts then it loops. • If Halt(G,G) say it loops it will halt.
- 10. Cantor Diagonal Proof Related Proof related to Subcase Recursion Proof based on
- 11. You Can Not Formalize The
- 12. You Can Not Formalize The • Anything known K: always can build recursion G(K) that is “bigger” • A^n + b^n != c^n : halt or not? • You never know enough (bad) • There is always room to know/invent more (good)
- 13. 2. Marketplaces
- 14. Marketplace: Set of Formal Rules • Collect Underpants • ? [data] • Profits!
- 15. Marketplace: Sets of Formal Rules 1. Put software in the cardboard box 2. Bundle browser with OS 3. Cut oxygen supply to competitors 4. … 1923. Profits!
- 16. Gödel Statement G: True yet Un- Provable
- 17. New G • Put software in the box • Create search engine • … • Sell all words for bids • Profits! • Profits!
- 18. There is always another G • Put software in the box • Create friends graph • Sell words for bids • … • Profits! • Profits! • Put game in the box • Give away free game • … • Ask for money • Profits! • Profits!
- 19. Gödel Statements • Profitable yet un-provable by old rules • Include G New Theory New G’s • Infinite number of G’s • No formal discovery system
- 20. Startups • Success: find at least one G • Compete in old system: #epicFail • Many fails: no sure way to a new G • Quick experiments, fast pivots
- 21. The First Cycle New G Attempts at G
- 22. 3. Scale Free Laws
- 23. Scale Free Laws You can NOT understand the scale by looking at surroundings • Also known as Power Laws • Generate long tails
- 27. Scale Free: Terrain ground near NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander
- 28. Startup Scale Free Variables • Traffic • Users • Revenues
- 29. Scale Free Example 50 Users 5 Users
- 30. Scale Free Example $1,000,000,000 revenue $100,000,000
- 32. CASE STUDY • Founded: ’07. Valuation ’11: $10,000,000,000 • 2009 revenue: $270,000,000 • 2010 revenue: $700,000,000+
- 33. Startup: first G Dec ‘07 May ‘07
- 34. Life Cycle: Multiple Gs ‘09 ‘08 07
- 35. Scale Free: Time
- 36. Scale Free: Time New hit (G): growth in 3 months • 3 months: +1 month • 4 month: +2 months • 5 month: +5 months • 18 month: +4.3 years
- 37. Scale Free: Time You are… ` where? ? ? ?
- 38. M&A Aspects • x100 vs x4 • Mature: teams (cheap) or rev stream • Startups: G search • Big: profitable ops
- 39. Summary • Startup jumps on G-events • Big wins: sequential G. • Can’t discover by method • Impact & time : scale free graph • M&A: Decide between G and g+1
- 41. Must Read • Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, • Tipping Point • On Intelligence, Incompletness • The Blind Watchmaker • Guns, Germs & Steel, Collapse • The God Dellusion • The Red Queen • Genome • Poor Charlie Almanac Ubiquity • Elegant Universe • Evolution of Cooperation • The Trouble with Physics • Nexus • The Road to Reality • Social Atom • Freakonomics • The Wisdom of the Crowds
- 43. Myths • Russian Engineers are best in the world? – Not anymore • Russian entrepreneurs are most tenacious? – Good luck flogging dead horses for years • Russian entrepreneurs are most scrappy? – If scrappy long enough to notice its not working – If G exploding and you are scrappy you are an idiot
- 44. Default Rule When in doubt, use rule #1: If its feels natural its probably wrong
- 45. Russian “System” • Penalize failure == 0 discovery • Hierarchical: formalized! • Process dominated: formalized! • Don’t fence inherited problems: SOLVE THEM
- 46. Russian “System” • Soldier vs creativity • Status vs meritocracy • Masculine vs balanced • Micromanaged vs free form • Endless list
- 47. Job #1 : G Discovery • Everything else is secondary • First G: Life • Sequential Gs: Future • Free form, uncertain, non-process, creative, meritocratic, human driven