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1. Builder Consolidation: When Will Public Builders Begin Taking Market Share? Jonathan Smoke, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence October 2010
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4. More Contrary Evidence: Public Builder Market Share Declines in Total Public builder percentage of all single-family housing sales Source: Builder 100, builder reported closings as % of Census reported new home sales
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6. New Home Demand Is Concentrated in Major Markets—Where Jobs and Growth Are Most Prevalent Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
7. Not Much of a Retreat in the Largest 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas Source: Housing Intelligence Pro
8. Looking at the Largest 100 MSAs, The Most Concentrated Markets Are Already Getting More Concentrated Tucson, AZ Riverside, CA Public Builder % of New Home Market, 2010 YTD thru July Change in Public Builder % 2005-2010 Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL Colorado Springs, CO Source: Housing Intelligence Pro Austin, TX
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Notas do Editor
The biggest companies are still feeling the effects of a four-year hangover. The results provide further proof that the biggest companies grew too fast. They took big advantage of the financial bubble and are now paying the price. I did some analysis and this is not because the owner-built share of the market took a bigger percentage of sales; it’s way down as well. I’m going to attribute this to the fact that these companies do the lion’s share of their business in tracks. That business has been hurt more in the last year than custom, on-your-lot, and in-town construction. You could also make the case that many of the biggest builders remain in the hardest-hit markets last year, California and Florida. I think everyone in the room would agree that the biggest companies in the industry, particularly the public companies, enjoy some profound advantages today, particularly access to the public markets and capital. And they will use them to power ahead of the pack in the future. In the time being, though, they are paying for some excesses of the housing boom.
Public builder share of the Builder 100 has been on a steady decline since 2006, after rising sharply during the early half of the decade. Last year, the public companies on our top 100 list closed only 103,888 homes. At the top of the market, if you added the volume of D.R. Horton and Lennar, it nearly equaled 100,000 homes. There were 439,000 closings of single family homes last year, including condos.
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