This presentation was prepared by my GMCS team during the GMCS 2 course at Mangalore Branch of SIRC of ICAI.
This presentation gives an overview regarding the Forex Market and how one can use the Forex instruments and thus be able to transact globally.
An approach to deal with Forex Instruments in order to have accurate decision making has been outlined. This approach explains as to how an investor may be able to use Purchase Power Parity and Interest Rate Parity Theorems in order to transact.
5. WHY FOREIGN
INVESTMENTS?
To take advantage of
economies of scale
Foreign firms foster
forward and backward
economic linkages.
Presence of foreign
investors creates a
multiplier effect
Foreign investors are a
boon to government to
raise revenue and
Employment Generation
Maintain a proper
balance amongst the
factors of production by
the supply of scarce
resources
The parent company
enters into newer
financial markets by its
investments outside
Develops closer political
relationship between the
home and the host
country
6. RISKS (EXPOSURE)
Transaction Risk
•Measures the effect of an
exchange rate on outstanding
obligations
Translation Risk
•Refers to gains and losses
caused by translation of Forex
Assets and Liabilities into
Home Currency
Economic Risk
•Extent to which the economic
value of the company changes
due to change in Forex Rates.
7. THE FOREX MARKET
Forex Exchange
Market
• A Market for
converting the
currency of
one country
into the
currency of
another.
Exchange Rate
• The rate at
which one
currency is
converted into
another
• Bid – Ask =
Spread
Types of Market
• Over the
Counter
Market
• Exchange
Traded Market
Uses of Market
• To facilitate
conversion of
Currency
• To Trade
investments of
Foreign
currency
• To manage
Forex
Exposure
effectively
12. INVESTOR
S
APPROAC
H TO
FOREX
RISK
MANAGEM
ENT
Expected
Payment/Receivable in
FOREX
Apply Purchasing
Power Parity Theorem
Expected Gain
Hedge Using Futures
or Forward Contract
Expected Loss
Apply Interest Rate
Parity Theorem and
obtain expected
Forward Rate
Hedge using Futures
Hedge Using Forward
Contract/Swaps
High Risk Instrument =
Options
Low Risk and
Investment Purpose =
Exchange Traded
Funds
13. PURCHASING POWER PARITY
It is in the equilibrium the
rate of change in exchange
equals inflation rate
differential.
PPP expresses the idea that a
bundle of goods in one
country should cost the same
in another country after
exchange rates are taken into
account.
15. INTEREST RATE PARITY
Interest rate parity has to
do with the idea that
money should earn an
equal rate of return.
Uses nominal interest
rates to analyze the
relationship between spot
rate and a corresponding
forward rate
16. LEADING AND LAGGING
Leads and lags is the
alteration of settlement of
forex transaction because
of an expected change in
exchange rates.
Accelerating the
transaction is known as
"leads", while slowing it
down is known as "lags".
Leads will result when firms or
individuals making payments expect
an increase in the foreign-exchange
rate, while lags arise when the
exchange rate is expected to fall.
17. COMPLIANCE
RBI Regulations
•Pay/Receive Forex within Certain period
•Maintain Separate NRI Account
•Convert Forex to Home currency
FEMA Regulations
•Permitted Current Account Transactions
•Permitted Capital Account Transactions
•Person Resident in India/Person Resident outside India
Income Tax Regulations
•Complete and full disclosure of foreign assets and foreign interest in IT
Returns
•Transfer Pricing and Scrutiny Assessments
The Investor being prudent in his dealings tries to forecast his gains or losses.
The Investor shall first try to predict the spot price of the currency for a future date by using the purchase power parity theory. Inflation rates and its forecasted rates are available on various sites online.
If the estimated spot price results in a financial advantage, the investor may not do anything at all or may secure it by hedging using Currency Futures or Forward Contracts.
If the estimated spot price results in a financial disadvantage, the investor on a prudent note hedge himself. He can utilize the Interest Rate Parity theory and determine an estimated forward rate. He may hedge by instruments from the Exchange Market by investing in Futures. He may also end up entering into Forward Agreements or Currency Swaps by virtue of a OTC Deal.
The investor may also decide his luck by investing in Currency Options.
The Investor as a matter of general investment can invest in Exchange Traded Funds. An Exchange Traded funds is a Mutual Fund in Foreign Currency. The NAV changes as the Forex rate changes.