Following months of steadily rising wholesale fuel prices, the April Bord Gáis Energy Index stabilised at 154. In euro terms, having hit a month end closing high in March, oil prices finally receded in April as both market tightening and geopolitical tensions eased. Supply constraints, storage withdrawals and cool weather supported UK Day-ahead gas prices and a weaker euro amplified this movement.

1. Bord Gáis Energy Index
April 2012

2. Bord Gáis Energy Index
April 2012
Bord Gáis Energy Index Remains High in April
Index up 6% in 2012
Bord Gáis Energy Index (Dec 31st 2009 = 100) OVERALL SUMMARY:
12 Month Rolling
Energy
Index Graph
Data 31 October 2009
Average
87.80
Following months of steadily rising wholesale
31 January 2009 92.10 Bord Gáis Energy Index
30 November 2009 87.15 12 Month Rolling Average fuel prices, the April Bord Gáis Energy Index
28 February 2009
31 March 2009180
30 April 2009
87.77
76.86
77.63
31 December 2009
31 January 2010
88.29
88.92 stabilised at 154.
31 May 2009 84.37 28 February 2010 90.20
In euro terms, having hit a month end closing
30 June 2009 90.81 31 March 2010 92.51
31 July 2009 88.62
30 April 2010 95.31
31 August 2009 88.35
30 September 2009
31 October 2009
85.76
92.39
31 May 2010
30 June 2010
97.49
99.22
high in March, oil prices finally receded
30 November 2009
31 December 2009
31 January 2010
140 94.82
100.00
99.62
31 July 2010
31 August 2010
101.09
102.82
in April as both market tightening and
geopolitical tensions eased.
Points
28 February 2010 103.17 30 September 2010 104.97
31 March 2010 104.57
31 October 2010 106.66
30 April 2010 111.22
31 May 2010
30 June 2010
110.49
111.64
30 November 2010
31 December 2010
108.89
111.88
Supply constraints, storage withdrawals
and cool weather supported UK Day-ahead
31 July 2010 111.05
100
31 January 2011 114.76
31 August 2010 109.16
30 September 2010 111.50 28 February 2011 117.91
31 October 2010
30 November 2010
112.64
121.67
31 March 2011 121.41 gas prices and a weaker euro amplified
this movement.
30 April 2011 124.45
31 December 2010 135.86
31 January 2011 134.21 31 May 2011 126.97
28 February 2011 140.96 30 June 2011 128.88
31 March 2011 146.51
31 July 2011 131.18
60
30 April 2011 147.76
31 May 2011 140.73 31 August 2011 133.64
30 June 2011 134.54 30 September 2011 135.59
31 July 2011 138.57
31 August 2011 138.69 Jan-09 Apr-09 October 2011
31 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10
137.54 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
30 September 2011 134.89 31 November 2011 139.53
31 October 2011 136.14 31 December 2011 140.15
31 November 2011 143.88
31 January 2012 141.01
31 December 2011 143.22
31 January 2012 144.43 31 February 2012 142.38
31 February 2012 156.81
1 Mth 0% 3 Mth 6% 12 Mth 4%
Euro consumers of Brent crude oil will welcome the news that in April, the first drop in the monthly price of oil, in euro terms,
since September 2011 was recorded. Lower oil prices coincided with news that after 30 months of oil market tightening,
where global demand outstripped supply, relief finally arrived in the first quarter of 2012. This is a result of OPEC pumping
more oil and demand waning as rising prices and the weakening economic backdrop undermined consumer’s appetite for oil.
However, should the euro continue to weaken versus the US Dollar, European consumers may not feel all or any benefits of
future Brent crude oil price falls. Using April month end closing prices, should the euro weaken to 1.20 versus the US Dollar
because of renewed solvency concerns in Europe, oil prices would have to fall $11 or 10% just to maintain the current euro
price of a barrel of Brent crude.
Oil Index OIL
Oil Graph
Having stabilised in March, the price of a
180
Data
31 January 2009
28 February 2009
65.78
67.03 barrel of crude oil started to decline in April,
falling 2% in euro terms. According to the
31 March 2009 68.43
30 April 2009 70.72
31 May 2009 85.34
30 June 2009
31 July 2009
90.70
92.57
International Energy Agency, ‘the tide of
remorseless market tightening’ that has seen
31 August 2009 89.31
140
30 September 2009 86.74
31 October 2009 93.84
30 November 2009
31 December 2009
96.36
100.00
demand outstrip supply and stocks levels
being eroded over the prior ten quarters (Q3
Points
31 January 2010 94.62
28 February 2010 104.90
09 to Q4 11), finally turned in Q1 2012 due
31 March 2010 112.38
30 April 2010 121.16
31 May 2010 111.65
30 June 2010 112.54
to an increase in OPEC crude supply and
100
31 July 2010 110.19
sluggish oil demand. There is now growing
31 August 2010 108.17
30 September 2010 111.13
31 October 2010 109.88
30 November 2010
31 December 2010
121.18
130.36 confidence that the key OPEC producers can
step into the breach and replace lost Iranian
31 January 2011 135.62
28 February 2011 149.07
31 March 2011 152.09
30 April 2011 156.15
oil volumes as OPEC’s output of oil in April hit
31 May 2011
30 June 2011
31 July 2011
149.41
142.55
149.27
60 levels not seen since September 2008.
31 August 2011 146.57
30 September 2011 140.51
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
31 October 2011
31 November 2011
144.47
151.05
In addition to oil market easing, improving
31 December 2011
31 January 2012
152.25
155.87
relations between the West and Iran following
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
31 February 2012 169.16
Data Source: ICE ‘constructive’ talks on the Persian State’s
disputed nuclear programme put additional
downward pressure on oil prices, along with
1 Mth -2% 3 Mth 6% 12 Mth 6%
a view from Israel’s military chief who stated
that Iran will not decide to produce a nuclear
bomb.
Disappointing economic releases from China,
renewed fiscal solvency concerns about
Spain and an unwillingness by the Federal
Reserve in the US to provide additional
stimulus to boost US growth, all weighed on
oil in April.

3. Bord Gáis Energy Index
April 2012
Natural Gas Index NATURAL GAS
In euro terms, the average monthly Day-ahead
250
Natural
Gas Graph
UK gas price in April was 6% higher than its
Data
31 January 2009 195.04
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
156.23
99.24
March equivalent. A weaker euro versus the
30 April 2009 92.78
British Pound (in April the euro weakened by
200
31 May 2009 87.00
30 June 2009 87.56
31 July 2009
31 August 2009
76.34
69.43
approximately 2% versus the British Pound),
30 September 2009
31 October 2009
61.72
77.55 amplified the increase in the monthly average
Day-ahead price.
30 November 2009 83.21
Points
31 December 2009 100.00
150
31 January 2010 125.88
28 February 2010 114.44
31 March 2010
30 April 2010
101.67
106.04
Despite moving into the gas market’s summer
on 1 April and the official end of the winter
31 May 2010 130.73
30 June 2010 145.29
31 July 2010 157.48
31 August 2010 145.96
period, Day-ahead gas prices were well
100
30 September 2010 132.67
supported in the month and traded consistently
31 October 2010 148.57
30 November 2010 167.11
31 December 2010 204.87
31 January 2011
28 February 2011
188.31
179.74
around the 60p a therm level. The UK system
31 March 2011
30 April 2011
194.03
181.39 found itself consistently short in the month as
50 supply constraints materialised sporadically
31 May 2011 184.99
30 June 2011 183.36
31 July 2011 179.36
31 August 2011
30 September 2011
172.82
180.07
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 in some of the main sources of gas supply to
the UK. These supply constraints and storage
31 October 2011 180.16
31 November 2011 191.53
31 December 2011 189.94
31 January 2012
31 February 2012
184.35
221.68
*Index adjusted for currency movements. withdrawals supported prices.
Data Source: Spectron Group
On the demand side, cool temperatures
supported domestic demand for gas to heat
1 Mth 6% 3 Mth 13% 12 Mth 15% homes throughout the UK.
Coal Index Coal
European coal prices hit a 19 month low in
Coal Graph
260 April due to little or no demand for coal in
the Atlantic basin. Following restocking by
Data
31 January 2009 102.58
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
93.02
82.80
major drawers of imported coal (UK, Germany
30 April 2009 78.58
for instance) in 2011 and then a relatively
205
31 May 2009 76.19
mild winter in Q4 2011 which extended into
30 June 2009 76.68
31 July 2009 81.48
January, Europe is heavily stocked currently. In
31 August 2009 84.15
30 September 2009 83.00
31 October 2009 86.26
addition, with slower industrial activity across
Points
30 November 2009 88.54
31 December 2009 100.00
150 major euro zone economies, there has been a
31 January 2010 105.77
28 February 2010 95.28
reduction in coal burn in the region and these
31 March 2010 95.51
30 April 2010 108.11
31 May 2010 125.06
30 June 2010
31 July 2010
132.03
121.85
heavy stock levels have not been eroded.
31 August 2010 123.28
30 September 2010
31 October 2010
121.29
121.83 95 Supplies to Europe also remain healthy with
ample supplies of coal reportedly available
30 November 2010 150.34
31 December 2010 159.48
from Colombia and the US. Columbian coal
31 January 2011 148.31
28 February 2011 149.34
31 March 2011 153.91
exports are expected to increase this year as
40
30 April 2011 148.29
31 May 2011 145.75
30 June 2011
31 July 2011
144.90
147.62
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
producers continue to improve output from
mines and the abundance of shale gas in the
31 August 2011 149.65
30 September 2011 156.20
31 October 2011 145.04
31 November 2011
31 December 2011
142.82
145.65
US means that it is willing to export coal to find
*Index adjusted for currency movements.
31 January 2012
31 January 2012
134.66
125.54 Data Source: ICE value in the global market.
With both India and China apparently
1 Mth -7% 3 Mth -12% 12 Mth -21% refraining from any large coal purchases,
prices globally remain depressed.
Electricity Index ELECTRICITY
Irish wholesale electricity prices were 3%
Electricity
Graph Data
180 higher in April compared to March. The
31 January 2009 127.36
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
117.38
89.56
dominant influence on Irish wholesale
30 April 2009
31 May 2009
88.58
82.33 electricity prices is the cost of gas in the UK
and during April, the average Day-ahead UK
30 June 2009 91.74
31 July 2009 83.00
140
31 August 2009 89.26
30 September 2009
31 October 2009
87.28
91.82
gas price increased 6% in euro terms. As gas
30 November 2009 93.65
is used to power the majority of electricity
Points
31 December 2009 100.00
31 January 2010
28 February 2010
105.32
98.50 generating plants in Ireland, the wholesale
electricity price is highly correlated to
31 March 2010 90.42
30 April 2010 93.24
31 May 2010 105.19
movements in UK gas prices.
100
30 June 2010 104.88
31 July 2010 106.05
31 August 2010 105.66
30 September 2010
31 October 2010
109.05
112.69 In addition to rising gas prices, the intermittent
nature of wind also nudged wholesale prices
30 November 2010 115.75
31 December 2010 136.21
31 January 2011 123.78
28 February 2011
31 March 2011
120.12
129.24
higher. During the month, as a result of the
30 April 2011 127.27
high wind speeds and large volumes of wind
31 May 2011
30 June 2011
31 July 2011
118.10
112.46
112.53
60 power being produced, there were periods
Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
when traditional fossil fuel generators were
31 August 2011 118.86
30 September 2011 117.61
31 October 2011 114.14
31 November 2011
31 December 2011
123.77
119.63
turned off, as they were not required to
31 January 2012
31 February 2012
117.47
125.14
Data Source: SEMO
produce electricity to meet the country’s
demand. As wind speeds eased, the thermal
generators were called on once again to
1 Mth 3% 3 Mth 4% 12 Mth -3% produce and the costs to re-commence the
production of electricity had to be recouped
in the wholesale price, which in turn put
upward pressure on wholesale prices.

4. Bord Gáis Energy Index
April 2012
FX Rates FX RATES
31 January 2009
EUR/USD
1.283 31 January 2009
EUR/GBP
0.887 During April, the euro weakened against
1.60
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
1.272
1.323
28 February 2009
31 March 2009
0.886
0.925 both the US Dollar and the British Pound,
30 April 2009 1.321
30 April 2009
31 May 2009
0.894
0.874
despite the fact that the UK has suffered
it’s first double-dip recession since the
31 May 2009 1.412
30 June 2009 0.853
1.40
30 June 2009 1.405
31 July 2009 0.853
31 July 2009
31 August 2009
1.424
1.434
31 August 2009
30 September 2009
0.881
0.914
1970’s. A weaker euro means that any
30 September 2009
31 October 2009
1.464
1.474
31 October 2009
30 November 2009
0.896
0.913
falls in non-euro priced commodities are
1.20
30 November 2009
31 December 2009
1.498
1.433
31 December 2009
31 January 2010
0.888
0.867
not fully realised and any increases are
31 January 2010 1.389 28 February 2010
31 March 2010
0.893
0.891
magnified as European buyers have to
pay more.
28 February 2010 1.360
1.00
30 April 2010 0.868
31 March 2010 1.353
31 May 2010 0.846
30 April 2010 1.327
The euro’s weakness reflects fresh
30 June 2010 0.819
31 May 2010 1.230
31 July 2010 0.831
30 June 2010 1.226
solvency concerns about Spain, weaker
31 August 2010 0.827
0.80
31 July 2010 1.305
30 September 2010 0.866
1.269
than expected economic indicators and
31 August 2010 31 October 2010 0.869
30 September 2010 1.362 30 November 2010 0.837
political uncertainty associated with
31 October 2010 1.392 31 December 2010 0.857
30 November 2010 1.304 31 January 2011 0.854
0.60 elections in France and Greece. The
31 December 2010 1.337 28 February 2011 0.849
31 January 2011 1.370 31 March 2011 0.883
28 February 2011
31 March 2011
Jan-09
1.379
1.419
Apr-09 Jul-09 2011
30 April
Oct-09
31 May 2011
Jan-10
0.888
0.874
Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 stress Europe is under is reflected in the
30 April 2011 1.483
30 June 2011
31 July 2011
0.903
0.875
weakening currency but also in falling
European equities and rising 10 Year yields
31 May 2011 1.437
31 August 2011 0.885
30 June 2011 1.451
30 September 2011 0.860
31 July 2011
31 August 2011
1.438
1.441
31 October 2011
31 November 2011
0.8615
0.8562
on Italian, Spanish and to a lesser extent,
30 September 2011
1 Mth
31 October 2011
1.345
-1%
1.395 3 Mth
31 December 2011
31 January 2012 1%
0.8334
0.8302 12 Mth -11% EURUSD French bonds.
31 November 2011 1.3446 31 February 2012 0.8372
31 December 2011 1.2961 Europe’s economic weakness contrasts
1 Mth -2%
31 January 2012
31 January 2012
1.3084
1.3325
3 Mth -2% 12 Mth -8% EURGBP with the US where it is expected that the
recovery will continue and the economy
will grow by 2.5% this year.
Market Outlook:
Oil prices will stay high as long as geopolitical uncertainties remain. However, it would appear that the latest round of
sanctions against Iran is having an effect given reports that Iran’s storage facilities of crude oil on land and sea are full, which
suggests that Iranian exports and crucial oil revenue are falling. This pressure may produce some progress at the second
round of talks between Iran and the so-called P5+1 group scheduled for 23 May. Any progress over Iran’s disputed nuclear
programme may push oil prices lower. The market will continue to observe developments in global oil supply, demand and
inventory changes to check for further evidence of market loosening.
The reignition of fiscal solvency concerns in Europe as well as political uncertainties and economic weakness could also
weigh on oil prices but euro buyers may not feel these gains fully, should the currency weaken amid European market stress.
Despite coal’s tremendous global consumption growth of 70% between 2000 and 2010, coal for power generation in Europe,
its principal market, has been in a state of decline in the two decades since 1990. In the short-term, ample European stocks
and the advent of Europe’s summer will continue to weigh on coal prices. As well as developments in the price of oil, weather
and supplies of gas to the UK from around the globe and from domestic fields will continue to influence wholesale gas prices.
re-weighting of bord gáis energy index:
Following the SEAI’s 2009 review of energy consumption in Ireland,
released in Q4 2010, there was a 9.3% drop in overall energy Oil 64.93%
consumption. The most notable drop of 1.39% was in oil consumption
in the form of gasoline and diesel. This reflects the economic
downturn experienced at the time. The share of natural gas and Gas
electricity increased by 0.63% and 0.57% respectively. An increase in 13.52%
the use of renewables and peat, at the expense of coal in electricity
generation was also observed. As a result the Bord Gáis Energy
Index has been reweighted to reflect the latest consumption data. Electricity Coal
This has had a minimal effect on the overall shape of the Index, but 18.40% 3.16%
may indicate future trends.
For more information please contact: Fleishman-Hillard — Aidan McLaughlin — 085 749 0484
Bord Gáis Energy — Christine Heffernan — 087 050 5555
Disclaimer:
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