Economic outlook for new lawyers joining the bar in Oregon in 2016 and beyond.

1. A Bright Future for New Lawyers?
Posted on07/11/2016
In a scant fewweeks, the latest crop of potential Oregon lawyers will sit for the July bar exam.
In a profession that is oft maligned, we frequentlyhear “There are too many lawyers!”
But before you conclude that aphorism is still true (or ever was), channel your inner Bill Nye the
Science Guy and consider the following:
 On the national scene, law school admissions have been in a downward spiral for five straight
years.
 Oregon mirrors those statistics. Data from the ABA’s “Standard 509 Information Reports”
reveals that applications and admissions to Oregon law schools dropped by 50% or more in
the last three years. [See the infographics at the end of this post.]
 Oregon bar exam results and admissions are little more haphazard, but support the same
generally downward trend. [2014 saw a slight blip upward in applications,
but overall passage rates have been dropping – sufficientlyso that we became the butt of
negative media attention.] Note: Other than pass rate percentages, the bar has not yet
posted data for 2015 on its website.]
 In 2012 the Oregon State Bar asked lawyers about their future plans over the next five
years. Thirty-five percent of lawyers statewide said they planned to retire, leave the
profession, or reduce their practice by 2017. [The highest planned retirement/departure
rates were on the Oregon coast. See the infographic at the end of this post.]
 Rural areas have long been under-represented. At first glance, Oregon towns with small
populations may seem to be in good shape lawyer-wise,but dig into the details and soon
you’ll see the bulk of lawyers are public defenders or district attorneys. If clients have a civil
matter, they have to travel to finda lawyer. This is a national problem, and affects other
professions. See: Lorelei Laird, In rural America, there are job opportunities and a need for
lawyers; Kristi Eaton, Rural areas struggle with lack of lawyers; Legal Services
Corporation, Access to Justice in Rural Areas; Eric Cooperstein, Go Rural, Young Lawyer!; and
my repost Advantages of Being a Rural Attorney.
Have We Reached the Tipping Point?
 In rural areas, we’re already there and have been for some time.
 Want to set up a solo practice? Prospects for 2016-2017 look far better than years past.
 Looking for a job? The market is still pretty tight, but far better than what it was during the
recession. [278 listingson the OSB Career Center Job Listing board when I checked a few
weeks ago, but also see Dave Smith, The State of the Oregon Legal Market, Class of 2012
edition.]
The Future Looks Good
All of this is a long way of saying I feel good about the future, especially if you plan to open a solo
practice. My best advice: give sincere consideration to Southern Oregon, Eastern Oregon, the
coast, and smaller towns in the valley.

2. Infographics

3. [All Rights Reserved 2016 Beverly Michaelis]