Presentación de la charla que, con motivo de la Inauguración del Centro de Diseno e Innovación Artesanal del Instituto de la Artesania Jalisciense se presentó en el Museo Nacional de la Cerámica de Tlaquepaque, Diciembre 2010.

1. Tendencias de diseño y
aplicación al sector artesanal
Alberto Rosa Sierra
Cuerpo Académico 381_Innovación Tecnológica para el Diseño
Centro Universitario de Arte, Arquitectura y Diseño
Universidad de Guadalajara

2. ¿Que es una tendencia?
La moda (fashion-bussiness)
ha fijado en la gente una
concepción (errónea) del
término

3. Tendencias
El concepto de tendencia no es privativo de los
mercados financieros. En un sentido general, es un
patrón de comportamiento de los elementos de un
entorno particular durante un periodo de tiempo.
En términos del análisis técnico, la tendencia es
simplemente la dirección o rumbo del mercado...
!

4. ¿De donde surgen las
tendencias?

5. En el diseño de productos y
servicios, las tendencias Tecnología
dependen de tres factores que
se mueven cada uno en su
propia dirección.
No es ninguno más importante Mercados Sociedad
que los otros y están
íntimamente inter-conectados.

6. Que pasa en la sociedad?
Cambios demográficos a nivel mundial (migraciones)
Población cada vez mas “anciana”
Nuevas estructuras familiares, familias de
monoparentales, mini-familias, hogares
pequeños...
Cambios en los valores de consumo, cambio
constante de productos, renovación de menaje de
casa...
Cambio en el paradigma del trabajo, nuevas formas
de empleo, inestabilidad laboral, incertidumbre...

7. Que pasa con los mercados?
Mayor diferenciación de productos,
personalización, individualización
Fabricación selectiva o “bajo pedido”
Importancia de la usabilidad y seguridad
Conciencia en los límites ambientales,
ecología, eco-diseño

8. Que pasa con la tecnología?
Microchips y nanotecnología
Nuevos materiales: Materiales inteligentes,
fabricación de materiales “bajo pedido”,
materiales de reciclado
Nuevos procesos productivos: Mas rápidos,
mas baratos, mas “limpios”
Logística “inteligente”, entrega a todo el
mundo
El mundo supercomunicado, importancia
de las redes sociales

10. TIME ZONES TRENDS & TECHNOLOGY TIMELINE 2010+
A roadmap for the exploration of current & future trends
Personal responsibility
People renting dreams
Community
theatre in the
round takes Compulsory
LEGEND
off (again) paternity tests First child born in space
Inheritance
ZONE 1: 2010-2015 (+ some predictions to stir things up. More at nowandnext.com) Printable TV screens
Invisibility cloaks Prison ships Children become luxury objects
Turkey, Iran and Mexico
Convergence of healthcare Contents of British Library available on a postage stamp-sized chip Letter writing First human clone e-voting in supermarkets
Disintegration of EU become key powers
and financial planning
ZONE 2: 2015-2020 Digital cash Single global
Digital cash widely embedded in clothing
Hunger for shared experiences
Folk-art revival Increased immigration
to solve skills crisis Collapse of free trade Government PR budgets
exceed military spending
Pulse
bombs
widely e-currency Animals suing humans Baby licences Growth of ‘Tech-No’ movement Desire for control Culture of immediacy Cheques Resurgence of hobbies & craft 1/3 of all military vehicles Function based tariffs
embedded in Widespread now unmanned
outbreaks for electricity
human body Growth of G2
Global population hits 9 billion Most people Online funerals Search for meaning Digital celebrities of panic Virtual protests Revival of far-right politics People able to record every
ZONE 3: 2020-2025 Rising rage Expecting less
have multiple (Mondays to Fridays only) Face recognition doors Widespread use of nano-materials event from birth to death
Brain drain from hedge funds to scientific R&D (energy #1 priority) presences Pastism
Nostalgia Bio-mimicry Airborne networks
Wealth asylum seekers Shape shifting materials Molecular machines Fully sensory internet
Increasing influence of Cosmetic brain
Calorie taxes Food passports 10-mile diets oil states on US politics World’s first thorium reactor surgery
Convenience Well-being Provenance Traceability Regionality Green politics
ZONE 4: 2025-2035
opens in India
Energy harvesting buildings
Biotechnology Epidemic of new
Indulgence Authenticity Growth of virtual communities
Rise of N11 countries Middle Class unrest Open source intelligence gathering Virtual water Genetic prophesy at birth mental disorders
Rising levels of autocracy linked to uncensored
Whole life financial planning linked Globalisation unravelling Lunar dimming streetlights Intelligent vending machines use of digital devices
Growth of Business sustainability to whole family model Government Growth of state control Carbon trading
ZONE 5: 2035-2050 micro-insurance largest determinant of Robotics Local energy transmission networks
e-services
First Internet court stock price Power shift Emergence of Gross National
Men behaving like women Artificial eyes
Meltdown of global
Emergence of Growth of bartering Eastwards Happiness metrics Shopping 2.0 financial system
Online communities Genetically Gross National Ageing Customer service avatars
Womb based therapy
start physical enhanced pets Happiness Speech recognition
communities RFID Small indulgences Third spaces become common place Redefinition of health to
metrics
Notes on time travel 75-year mortgages Pre-pay currency cards
Last CD is
Micro-finance
Widespread cuts in
Monolines
EDLP Authenticity Carbon chaos
Negawatts Clean coal Rare earths
include happiness/well-being
Shift to
local
Figurative
This map is a broad representation of some of revolution in the
published
Paper statements & bills public services trade
e-ink comes Face recognition Free-tailing Re-regulation
the trends and technologies currently visible. Retirement arts as
neoclassicism of age
Investment in renewable energy Half the world now
living under double
Increase in
pigouvian taxes
Brain gyms Growth of outsourcing
Conspicuous non-consumption to Africa
Improvement works are carried out at weekends and returns Bionic
Olympics
A graphic novel Acute labour women behaving like men Mercantilism
Increasing longevity digit inflation
travellers should check to see whether lines are still wins the Booker shortages in
Prize aged-care sector Infrastructure under-investment Networked risk Broader definitions of health
operable before commencing any journeys. Helpful Move to global pricing Synthetic biology Nuclear power renaissance Home-based health Peak landfill
of consumer goods Just-in-time Seasonality Cities painted
suggestions concerning new routes and excursions (driven by shopbots) shopping Too much choice Blurring of sectors Sensory experiences
Life story labelling Urbanisation Medical tourism
Obesity white to
increase reflectivity
Consumer e-health Pensions funding crisis
are always welcome.
Globalisation Declining fertility Anxiety
If you wish to travel outside of Zone 1 you are advised Disappearance Robocops in Local shopping Price polarisation
(High / Low ) Urban/rural divide Loneliness Growth of private
to bring comfy shoes and a camera. Travellers are also of checkouts shopping malls
Virtual libraries
Device convergence
Localism Micro-power generation currencies Plastic bridges
Increasing interest rates
advised to bring their own supplies of food and water Blurring of scientific disciplines Stored value cards Telemedicine
Home as refuge
iPills Metabolomics Peak Uranium
although weapons are unnecessary if you keep to well Pets outnumber people globally
Malicious intent detectors
Online micro-payments Domestic energy dashboards Modular spaces Identity theft Rising economc Driverless lorries
trodden paths. Also note that travel into Zone 5 is not Robot population Basic forms of AI Growth of security protectionism
First moon hotel
available for people aged over 75 years of age. surpasses human Digital mirrors algorithms Micro-finance
Industries consolidating globally
Debt Decline in real wages
population High Street Internet addiction clinic Mind control toys Personalisation Use of fake information Depression
Islamic finance
Payments to
as a weapon P2P lending Debt Stress Personal nooks enter most cities Pilotless
airliners
A3 and A2 Prints of this map Average lifespan Unexpected increase Death of distance Health & safety hysteria Information pandemics Mobile payments
Sense of entitlement Services outsourcing
by private vehicle Peak copper
Full colour prints of this map are available
100 years in fertility rates
Home/work convergence Basic forms of AI Web 2.0 Volatility Healthcare rationing
Simplicity Unsupervised adults
Victim culture Shift to knowledge intensive industries
Brain
holidays
Societal feminisation Large screens
to anyone that asks nicely. A small charge is ‘Spinning disk’ Home swap holidays
everywhere Fully
levied to cover print and postage costs only. Empathy memory devices Machines that can judge emotional state of user
Cloud storage Home/street immersive
Full concentration T.I.M Robotic surgery Data level domestic waste gaming
Increasing regulation
Contact< richard@nowandnext.com >stating Devices re-programming themselves & compliance security Individualism Droughts Believers versus heretics processing
30% of all books All ads now
whether you’d like A3 or A2 size and saying 25% of company
HQs now virtual
Widespread use of brain Single person households
Tightening security
in light of experience Contactless payments Flooding User filtering User generated content now digital personalised
scans in job interviews Energy storage
which country the map is to be delivered to. Online video Micro-blogging Digitalisation Binge drinking
Bio-simulations
Delivery is available to anywhere in the world. Virtual currencies Growth of digital narcissism Shorter formats Real-time car insurance All televised sport
Atternatively, just print this out yourself Physical newspapers Near extinction of quality journalism Digital diets Growth in passenger numbers Constant digital Prediction markets Telepresence Wilder weather
Emergence of green nationalism
now short format
( A3 minimum recommended ) become luxury items spawns philanthropic funding Domestic tourism
distraction Online medical records Green IT
e-books Seabed mining
Childcare robots Voluntourism Fuel-cell cars Face recognition rear view
mirrors (linked to ignition) Hypersonic
Sourced Face recognition doors Quiet paint 4 billion mobile phone subscribers
Sustainability
Gesture-based computing
airliners
Material for this map has been soured from a Medical tourism Intelligent packaging Environmental 3-D teleconferences
Collapse of
number of publications including Future Files Wireless re-charge
Low-cost competition
Fair trade
Shifting centres of economic activity
change Hybrid fuels
Bio-fuel backlash
Chinese banking
Cyber-pet vets Video wallpaper Aged care robots Wind power Return of food inflation and food riots system
and What’s Next Holographic storage Outsourcing backlash Fractional ownership
Space tourism
Dining Rooms Modesty
Green cities
Consumer e-health Slow food Cautious optimism
Urban car sharing Laboratory grown meat
in supermarkets Robotic insects for
crop pollination
Companies
re-think Mega trend
Computers with Verbal search Increasing inflation 2-speed economies Increasing complexity Electricity shortages OHS&E
CHIME liquidity after
moving parts Green buildings Comfort foods Fragrance cartridges
Ocean dead zones
Affective computing
Sustainable tourism
Global hospital brands
Lunar dimming streetlights in mobiles
workplace
stress
claims
Trend
Ubiquitous computing Water labelling
Nano-solar End of low-cost inputs All vehicles fitted with GPS Oil at $200
Eco-cynics Gen X start to outlive their offspring
Fuel-cell phones
Most people have 2+ careers
Holidays at home packages
80% of global energy requirements still met by oil/coal/gas Facebook vacations
(meet your online friends in person)
a barrel
Prediction
Augmented reality Phone spam Human organ farms Skills shortages bite
contact lenses Wearable computers
Resources increasingly acquired on a no questions asked basis Solar energy generating windows
DNA Global sensor network
Urban (vertical) farming Male birth control pill
Communication free resorts Augmented reality windscreens Sleep hotels Open source explodes with global standard for
royalty payments Dangerous currents
computing Focus on hardware reduces as Digital nomads Creative industries
Rise of the vegetarians Industrial repatriation Generational conflict in the workplace Increasing automation
www.futuretrendsbook.com services more distributed and
interoperable
Creation of new
arable lands as planet
Plastic bones
Variable road-pricing dependent on time of day/traffic volume
Water labelling become dominant
contributors to Poor visibility
Declining water quality warms up Artificial livers of all products Second asset
Quantum computing bubble global GDP
Hydrogen fuel stations Oceanic thermal converters
No more anonymous email addresses Peak water Genetic diets
www.nowandnext.com (one email address per person) Global migration drift to warming parts of
Privacy
All babies implanted with GPS & ID chips
80% of global population now obese
Vehicles bought for technology upgrades rather than model changes High-speed link
the northern hemisphere Fusion reactors
Food allergies eliminated Average car now 50% of weight of 2010 model equivalent
Acknowledgements Individual energy/carbon monitoring leads to allowances
and/or tiered costing based on system akin to personal
Micro-scale health-bots Cities laced with small vehicle lanes separate from road system
Humility Partial ruin
Space solar power Self-repairing roads Scarcity of hydrocarbon service First moon mine
This map was conceived and created by Richard Meditation/holistic services bundled with medical procedures Self-driving cars / fuel stations
Watson at Nowandnext.com with some help from Spray on surgical gloves Intimacy
Creation of Department of alcohol, firearms, soft drinks and confectionary
Russia
Benjamin Frazer at Snap. Also thanks to Oliver (mandatory health warnings on all alcohol, junk food and candy) (demographically) Optimism about the future DNA repair Bio-diversity Stringent laws requiring high levels of recyclability in all products
Freeman, Mike Jackson and Scott Martin.
Global risks* Commodity price spikes Electricity shortages Green energy bubble US/China conflict Global pandemic Middle class revolution Major nano-tech accident
Raw materials shortages Rapid increase in cyber crime Genetic terrorism Israel/Iran conflict Conflict with North Korea Collapse of China Space weather disruption to comms
This map is published under a creative Commons 2.5 * Low probability/high impact events that
Share-A-Like licence. This basically means that you can could derail any of the above trends and Mass migration of population Critical infrastructure attack Collapse of US dollar Bisphenol A link to cancer Political disintegration of Saudi Arabia Mobile phone link to cancer Aliens visit earth
predictions
do whatever you like with this map just so long as you Nuclear terrorism Rogue stakeholder Global supply chain disruption Geographical expansion of Russia Systemic failure of financial system Credit Default Swaps Return of the Messiah
say where it came from. Internet brownouts WMD Proliferation Terrorist attack on urban water supply Major earthquake in mega city Fundamentalist takeover in Pakistan Rogue asteroid People taking trend maps too seriously

11. ¿Y cómo trasladamos
todo esto al mundo del
Diseño?
...y la artesanía??

12. 10 aplicaciones de
tendencias de diseño
2009+

13. “Simplexity”
(Teoría emergente que propone la unión de complejo y simple)
Facilidad en el uso de la tecnología, interfase “humana”

14. Personalización 14 USD
Posibilidad de “hacer mío” el producto:
Adaptación a gusto, personalidad, talla, etc.
65 USD

15. Diseño “rosa”
El poder del “sexo débil”
8 USD

16. Imperfección en la
masificación
Posibilidad de hacer los productos con “defectos humanos”
62 USD

17. Globalización
Posibilidad de crear productos globales...y
que nos lleguen productos de fuera
India, China,
Filipinas, Tailandia,
Taiwan, Corea y
Colombia
India: Moradabad, Jaipur, Saharanpur, Narsapur...+ 1’000,000 empleos
Mercados: 1. USA (154 mUSD)
2. EU (129 mUSD)
3. Latinoamérica (???)

18. Ornamentación
Transición del minimalismo al barroco
Inspiraciones étnicas
Caricaturas, infantiles
Antigüedades, “vintage”
20 USD 35 USD 14 USD

19. Artesanía (hecho a mano)
Revalorización del trabajo artesanal de diseño, “hand-made”
13 USD 120 USD
75 USD

22. Democratización del diseño
Amplia gama, desde la VIP hasta low-cost

23. Diseño con causa
Reducción de energía, residuos, etc.
27 USD

24. Materiales “desnudos”

37. Qué hacer?
Cómo aplicar esto?

38. Leer (de todo), especialmente el periódico
Consultar los reportes de los que se dedican a esto
(coolhunters)
Analizar, observar los nuevos productos, la
competencia
Racionalizar, conectar los sucesos aparentemente
inconexos, aunque NO sean de mi área de
actuación
Estar al día en tecnología, procesos, materiales
Experimentar, probar nuevos procesos, materiales,
acabados, etc

39. Invitación
El Polo i+d del CUAAD, cuenta con un
observatorio de tendencias, quien desee,
acérquese a nosotros para apoyarle en su
búsqueda de aplicaciones de tendencias a
productos específicos.

40. Centro Universitario
de Arte,
Arquitectura y
Diseño
Universidad de
Guadalajara

41. Gracias por su atención...