Presentation by Ibrahim Suffian in the KAS Workshop "Political Communication in Asia" (Bali 2010)

1. Public Opinion PollingOld Politics and New Technology KAS Political Communications Seminar Bali, September 2010

2. Overview Introduction – Changes in the Political Landscape Polling Accuracy Issue and Strategy Selection Polling & Public Opinion Cyberspace and Public Opinion Conclusions

3. Introduction Public Opinion Polling in SEAsia Most established in Philippines and Indonesia, in the post Marcos/Suharto context Also present in Thailand but limited in Malaysia Varied acceptance of polling – strongly in most established countries but gaining ground even in Malaysia

5. Not likely to see emergence of ‘real’ political parties with ideologies and mass membership, though façade exists

6. Parties are moving from personalism, patronage & corruption to ‘modified’ hybrid parties with ‘electoral professional’ elements using latest media & marketing techniques

7. Traditional communication methods remain

8. Face to face campaigning

9. Mass rallies

11. Introduction Top Social Network in Individual Markets by Percent Reach of Web Population Source: ComScore World Metrix, Feb 2010

12. Introduction Estimated Twitter users in East Asia Source: http://www.greyreview.com/2010/04/20/105779710-million-users-and-new-estimates-of-twitter-users-in-asia/

13. Public Opinion PollingOld Politics and New Technology Polling Accuracy

15. Affected by respondents’ profile, sample assumptions and turnout models

16. Reflects bias?

17. E.g. wide variation of results gained by various pollsters in the Obama campaign

18. People who opt not to be polled as they don’t want to be seen not supporting a vogue candidate

20. Sample characteristics did not match voter profile (e.g age, sex, social grade or ethnicity)

21. Method bias – quota sampling may have unintended bias introduced by the interviewer thus skewing results towards certain social groups. Can be overcome by probability sampling using random digit dial or in-home interviews

22. Access to respondents – in person, fixed line and cellphone respondents

23. In some countries, political fear has impact on polling accuracy

25. Polling Accuracy LSI on Indonesian Presidential Elections 2009

26. Polling Accuracy Merdeka Center on Malaysian General Elections 2008

27. Public Opinion PollingOld Politics and New Technology Issue Selection

29. Local vs Provincial vs National Issues

30. Personality vs Policy

31. Audience and Messaging Considerations i.e “The Message Box”. ‘our strengths against opponents’ weaknesses’

32. Saliency of issues

33. Implications from right vs wrong track on undecided voters

34. Top of mind issues

36. Issue Selection Example – Sibu By Election May 2010 Q19. In this Sibu by-election, what are the TWO main considerations for you to vote?

37. Issue Selection Example – Sibu By Election May 2010 Q20. In this Sibu by-election, please tell me TWO most important criteria in a candidate for you?

38. Issue Selection Example – Sibu By Election May 2010 Q24. I am going to read you a list of issues. In your view, which TWO issues are the most important for you in this Sibu by-election?

39. Issue Selection Example – Sibu By Election May 2010 Key considerations and parameters: Limited time to cover all areas (only 9 days) Poll found undecided voters among Malays are very limited, probably less than 6%, among the Chinese it was estimated at 15-17% really are still undecided – thus making the difference between winning and losing. Messaging had to be tight - limited room to move up for both DAP and BN. DAP message focused on the undecided Chinese voters if it is to gain beyond the estimated 65% level of support needed to win.

41. No major difference between them and the rest of the DAP supporters (abt 55% Christian)

42. They don’t care very much about politics and know very little (only 21%) abt the achievements of DAP-Pakatan in West Msia this has implications if one talks about national issues.

43. They do not like the state chief minister but have quite positive feelings for the prime minister

45. Issue Selection Example – Sibu By Election May 2010 Recommended Messaging Raise basic issues such as the flooding, the land titles for urban people, and - highlight the candidate’s own track record of speaking up for the community, can bring government attention to the problems faced by residents and unafraid to face govt in helping the people. at all times, highlight how he will be a servant of the rakyat and not the politicians in the state capital or Putrajaya Build the case for "fairness in government administration" that the candidate and the party will be speaking up to ensure that the government both state and federal will treat the people of Sibu fairly - ensuring that development really does benefit the people and not just those around political leaders. More importantly, bring home the message that the state can better manage its economy so that young people can stay home to work rather than leave home and go abroad to find their livelihoods.

46. Issue Selection MESSAGE DELIVERY Voter contact activity Issue is only one part of the campaign Issues are not problems, they are solutions or key to resolution Importance of the issue and who has the advantage? Message discipline Voter contact plan Deliberate but flexible Best use of resources ($, t, pax) Organization makes or breaks the campaign – it drives the voter contact plan

48. Twitter – instant press release & activity report

49. SMS/Text – voter mobilization/information/propaganda

50. Websites – platform/news/propaganda

51. Significant cross platform sharing

52. Informal feedback channel

53. Content generated in new media is shared on to other medium

56. Hinges on credibility, saliency and consistency of messaging

58. Degree of exposure to media/access to information

59. Political fear and cultural context limit polling effectiveness

62. A part of campaign team – monitoring and rapid response: Twitter, social networking websites, email and text

64. Example: 44% of Malaysian users surf the internet for news How frequent do you surf the internet to get news & what sites you surf? Respondent with internet access / responden melayari internet (n = 1767) 32

65. Public Opinion PollingOld Politics and New Technology Conclusions

66. Conclusions Political parties in the region are evolving, becoming hybridized and employing latest marketing and communication technology Underneath it all, old structures remain E.g. ethnic politics in Malaysia and clientelism and patronage networks Yet society is changing and bringing about new challenges and pressures that confound old models e.g. emerging class-based issues in Malaysia and Thailand New media and communications technology is impacting voter mobilization

67. Thank You Questions?