How to think like a strategist on 3 levels: 1) general strategy 2) business strategy 3) product strategy. Using the "Playing to win" framework, the "Data, Diagnosis, Direction, Do next" cycle developed by Roger Fisher (famous for "Getting to yes"), the behaviour model by B. J. Fogg, and other tools.

1. How to Think
Like a Strategist
The „Playing to Win”
Framework and Other Tools

2. Message as a Six Word Story + Motto
(Instead of an Executive Summary)
Playing to Win 2
Great Products Require
Great Strategy Choices
http://www.sixwordmemoirs.com/
Iwapo unataka kwenda haraka,
nenda peke yako.
If you want to go quickly, go alone.
Iwapo mnataka kwenda mbali,
nendeni pamoja.
If you want to go far, go together.
Allagedly African proverb, transtated back from English to Swahili

3. Who Can Think Strategically?
Playing to Win 3
You will understand the
question better later on:

4. Why You Should Think Stratigically
#organization, #leadership_style, #creative_collaboration
Playing to Win 4
https://vimeo.com/109611584
Spotify
TED + BCG:
How should a CEO lead?
https://labs.spotify.com/2014/03/27/spotify-engineering-culture-part-1/

5. The Design Principle
Requires Strategy Choices
Playing to Win 5
How to Reach the Centre from
Almost There:
•   Tweak the business model*
•   Look for better technical solution
•   Enhance design
https://www.ideo.com/about/
 Competition
 Risk
 Scarce
resources
Choose
 Where to Play
 How to Win
Based on
tested hypotheses



* http://www.businessmodelgeneration.com/

6. Disclaimer #1: Nothing in this
Presentation was Invented by Me
Playing to Win 6

7. Disclaimer #2: Strategy Frameworks
Go Only So Far as The 2 Circles
Playing to Win 7
How to draw an owl (SethGodin)
The problem with most business and leadership advice is that it's a little
like this.
The two circles aren't the point. Getting the two circles right is a good
idea, but lots of people manage that part. No, the difficult part is learning
to see what an owl looks like. Drawing an owl involves thousands of
small decisions, each based on the answer to just one question, "what
does the owl look like?" If you can't see it (in your mind, not with your
eyes), you can't draw it.
There are hundreds of thousands of bullet points and rules of
thumb about how to lead people, how to start and run a company, how to
market, how to sell and how to do work that matters. Most of them
involve drawing two circles. (HT to Stefano for the owl).
Before any of these step by step approaches work, it helps a lot to learn
to see. When someone does this job well, what does it look like? When
you've created a relationship that works, what does it feel like?
Incubator programs and coaching work their best not when they teach
people which circles to draw, but when they engage in interactive
learning after you've gone ahead and drawn your circle. The iterative
process of drawing and erasing and drawing some more is how we learn
to see the world.

8. Disclaimer #3: No Checklist, a Toolbox
Version #1 for Marketing people
Playing to Win 8
You don’t have to use all these tools all the time.
Use them like tools in IDEOs Design Thinking Toolkit:
https://www.ideo.com/work/human-centered-design-toolkit/

9. Disclaimer #3: No Checklist, a Toolbox
Version #2 for IT people
Playing to Win 9
You don’t have to use all these tools all the time.
Use them like importable modules are used in programming languages, eg.:
Python’s basic toolset doesn’t contain
the value of pi = 3.14...
From the „math” module you can
import pi with limited precision
If you need more digits (say 1000), you can use a module
designed for arbitrary precision floating point calculations

10. The 3 Levels of Thinking Strategically
Strategy
in General
Business
Strategy
Product
Strategy
Playing to Win 10

11. Strategy in General
Playing to Win 11

12. An Emotionally Inspiring -- and
Logically Somewhat Vague Approach
Playing to Win 12
https://www.ted.com/talks/simon_sinek_how_great_leaders_inspire_action
 What is this approach very good for?
 What is it not so good for?
(Hints: #leadership, #inspire_action, #feelings)
 Neocortex WHAT
 Rational, analytical thinking
 Language
 [ Kahneman: slow thinking System 2]
 Limbic brain  WHY and HOW
 Feelings ‒ trust, loyalty
 Behavior
 No capacity for language
 [ Kahneman: fast thinking System 1]
See also: Why-How Laddering
https://dschool.stanford.edu/wp-content/themes/dschool/method-cards/why-how-laddering.pdf
Related: 5 ThingsYou Didn't Know
AboutApple's '1984' Super BowlAd
(Like How It Almost Didn't Air)

13. Strategy is a Stage of Thinking & Learning
Playing to Win 13
 Source of claritiy: one border crossing at each step
 Optional step #0: all logical possibilities for Do next
http://www.amazon.com/Getting-It-Done-Youre-Charge/dp/0887309585
The 4 Stages of the Thinking Process
Learning = Thinking + Doing
Sometimes we start
here – which can be
OK, if we proceed to
the next cycle.
If you start here, you need
to reverse engineer you
strategy = test its
underlying hypotheses

14. Problem solving in „Getting to Yes”
Playing to Win 14
Data
Diagnosis Direction
Do next
Future
RealWorldTheory
Now




http://www.williamury.com/books/getting-to-yes/

15. Problem solving in „Getting to Yes”
Playing to Win 15
Data
Diagnosis Direction
Do next
Future
RealWorldTheory
Now





16. Learning = thinking + doing + thinking + …
Playing to Win 16

 
 
 

http://www.amazon.com/Getting-It-Done-Youre-Charge/dp/0887309585

17. A viable strategy requires correct diagnosis:
a simplistic textbook example
Playing to Win 17
Diagnosis => Direction = ?
Data: the extent of fire damage ~ # of firefighters on the scene

18. Fire damage vs firefighters – diagnosis A
or B?
Playing to Win 18
Data
Diagnosis Direction
Do next
Future
RealWorldTheory
 Fire damage ~ # of FFs on
the scene
Now
 Diagnosis A: # of FFs =>
severity of damage
 Diagnosis B: severity of fire
=> # of FFs & damage
 Direction A: send less FFs
 Direction B: BAU
 Do next A: next time no
FFs
 Do next B: BAU

 


19. Fire damage vs firefighters – diagnosis A
or B?
Playing to Win 19
Data
Diagnosis Direction
Do next
Future
RealWorldTheory
 Fire damage ~ # of FFs on
the scene
Now
 Diagnosis A: # of FFs =>
severity of damage
 Diagnosis B: severity of fire
=> # of FFs & damage
 Direction A: send less FFs
 Direction B: BAU
 Do next A: next time no
FFs
 Do next B: BAU

 


20. Food for Thought
Playing to Win 20
1) Compare the 4D matrix with the Lean Cycle framework:
2) What dimension would make sense to add (in addition to Time = now vs future,
Reality = real world vs theory) when we wnat to think about strategy?

21. Business Strategy
Playing to Win 21

22. Steve Jobs Discussing „Where to Play” and
„How to Win” with Professional Workstations
Playing to Win 22
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNfRgSlhIW0

23. A Specific Business Strategy Framework:
Direction  Playing to Win
Playing to Win 23

24. Where to Play and How to Win
Playing to Win 24
 Choices also indicate
options not to be chosen
 Consistent horizontally
and vertically
 Based on tested
hypotheses
 Embrace inherent risk of
business
http://www.amazon.com/Playing-Win-Strategy-Really-Works-ebook/dp/B00AJVJ1HI/
The „Heart” of Strategy

25. Where to Play and How to Win
Playing to Win 25
http://www.amazon.com/Playing-Win-Strategy-Really-Works-ebook/dp/B00AJVJ1HI/
The „Heart” of Strategy
Sometimes overlooked. Famous
mgmt systems include eg. :
 P&G’s codified Brand Building
Framework
 Toyota Production System
 Apple’s DRI system
 Holacracy
Revenues Costs
Message to
employees,
investors,
competition
Products + Infrastructure
+ Mktg / sales machine
+ Analytics + ...
Leadership style +
Strategy creation +
Collaboration + KPIs +
Decision making + Talent
mgmt + Incentives + ...

26. A Canvas for Strategy Workshops
Playing to Win 26
http://matthewemay.com/introducing-the-play-to-win-strategy-canvas-2-0/

27. The Big Lie of Strategic Planning #1
[Strategic planning] may be an excellent way to cope with fear of the unknown, but fear and
discomfort are an essential part of strategy making. In fact, if you are entirely comfortable
with your strategy, there’s a strong chance it isn’t very good. You’re probably stuck in one or
more of the traps I’ll discuss in this article. You need to be uncomfortable and apprehensive:
True strategy is about placing bets and making hard choices. The objective is not to eliminate
risk but to increase the odds of success.
Comfort Trap 1: Strategic Planning
The subtle slide from strategy to planning occurs because planning is a thoroughly doable
and comfortable exercise.
Comfort Trap 2: Cost-Based Thinking
[T]he predictability of costs is fundamentally different from the predictability of revenue.
Planning can’t and won’t make revenue magically appear, and the effort you spend creating
revenue plans is a distraction from the strategist’s much harder job: finding ways to acquire
and keep customers.
Comfort Trap 3: Self-Referential Strategy Frameworks
[The resource-based view (RBV) of the firm] holds that the key to a firm’s competitive
advantage is the possession of valuable, rare, inimitable, and non-substitutable capabilities.
[...] The problem, of course, is that capabilities themselves don’t compel a customer to buy.
Only those that produce a superior value equation for a particular set of customers can do
that.
Playing to Win 27
https://hbr.org/2014/01/the-big-lie-of-strategic-planning

28. The Big Lie of Strategic Planning #2
Escaping the Traps
Rule 1: Keep the strategy statement simple.
Two choices determine success: the where-to-play decision (which specific
customers to target) and the how-to-win decision (how to create a compelling
value proposition for those customers).
Rule 2: Recognize that strategy is not about perfection.
[G]iven that strategy is primarily about revenue rather than cost, perfection is an
impossible standard. At its very best, therefore, strategy shortens the odds of a
company’s bets.
Rule 3: Make the logic explicit.
The only sure way to improve the hit rate of your strategic choices is to test the
logic of your thinking: For your choices to make sense, what do you need to
believe about customers, about the evolution of your industry, about competition,
about your capabilities? It is critical to write down the answers to those questions,
because the human mind naturally rewrites history and will declare the world to
have unfolded largely as was planned rather than recall how strategic bets were
actually made and why. If the logic is recorded and then compared to real events,
managers will be able to see quickly when and how the strategy is not producing
the desired outcome and will be able to make necessary adjustments.
Playing to Win 28
https://hbr.org/2014/01/the-big-lie-of-strategic-planning

29. 6 of the Most Common Strategy Traps
• The do-it-all strategy: failing to make choices, and making everything a priority. Remember,
strategy is choice.
• The Don Quixote strategy: attacking competitive “walled cities” or taking on the strongest
competitor first, head-to-head. Remember, where to play is your choice. Pick somewhere
you can have a chance to win.
• The Waterloo strategy: starting wars on multiple fronts with multiple competitors at the
same time. No company can do everything well. If you try to do so, you will do everything
weakly.
• The something-for-everyone strategy: attempting to capture all consumer or channel or
geographic or category segments at once. Remember, to create real value, you have to
choose to serve some constituents really well and not worry about the others.
• The dreams-that-never-come-true strategy: developing high-level aspirations and mission
statements that never get translated into concrete where-to-play and how-to-win choices,
core capabilities, and management systems. Remember that aspirations are not strategy.
Strategy is the answer to all five questions in the choice cascade.
• The program-of-the-month strategy: settling for generic industry strategies, in which all
competitors are chasing the same customers, geographies, and segments in the same way.
The choice cascade and activity system that supports these choices should be distinctive.
The more your choices look like those of your competitors, the less likely you will ever win.
Playing to Win 29

30. Where to Play: Citizens of 2 Worlds
Extremistan vs Mediocristan
Playing to Win 30
MODERATE EXTREME
How to achieve Win – Win?
https://www.facebook.com/events/927274840643068/
http://magyarnarancs.hu/egotripp/maga-itt-a-tanctanar-81841
risk
Smart to take
Telcos vs
Travels Inside Mediocristan
The Strange Country of Extremistan

31. Zappos Founder about Poker Learnings
Playing to Win 31
[Where to Play]
 Table selection is the most important decisionyou can make.
 It's okay to switch tables if you discover it's too hard to win at your table.
 If there are too many competitors (some irrational or inexperienced), even if
you're the best it's a lot harder to win.
 Don't play games that you don't understand, even if you see lots of other people
making money from them.
 Figure out the game when the stakes aren't high.
[How to Win]
 Act weak when strong, act strong when weak. Know when to bluff.
 Remember that it's a long-term game. You will win or lose individual hands or
sessions, but it's what happens in the long term that matters.
 You need to adjust your style of play throughout the night as the dynamics of
the game change. Be flexible.
 Differentiate yourself. Do the opposite of what the rest of the table is doing.
 Hope is not a good plan.
 Don't let yourself go "on tilt." It's much more cost-effective to take a break, walk
around, or leave the game for the night.
http://deliveringhappiness.com/what-poker-taught-tony-hsieh-about-business/

32. Your Strategy Needs a Stretegy
Playing to Win 32
The exploration versus exploitation trade-off is at the heart of all business strategy.
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/yourstrategyneedsastrategy

33. Where to Play and How to Win, an Alternate
Approach: Stakeholder Analysis
Identify which stakeholders
you depend on for success
•Customers
•Supplyers
•Employees
•Shareholders
•Etc
Recognize what you want
from your stakeholders
•Sales and revenue growth
from customers
•Productivity and innovation
from employees
•Quality goods and services at
the right price from suppliers
Recognize what your
stakeholders want from you =
strategic factors (example:
what ship operators want
from a port)
•Port capability (suitability for
a ship’s size and freight)
•Freight availability (to pick
up on the return leg)
•Congestion (speed of
unloading and turnaround
time in the port)
•Location (which affects
“steaming time,” or time
between destinations)
•Price (port charges for
docking and remaining
moored)
Playing to Win 33
https://hbr.org/2014/11/a-list-of-goals-is-not-a-strategy

34. Product Strategy
Playing to Win 34

35. Is Your Product a „Vitamin” or „Painkiller?”
Playing to Win 35
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736

36. Is Your Product a „Vitamin” or „Painkiller?”
Playing to Win 36
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736
 PRO: Pains are usually common
and easy to identify
 CON: once pain has gone, no
room for further value creation
 CON: Imagination needed to
comprehend benefits
 PRO: infinite room for value
creation

37. Usually Both, in Varying Degree
Playing to Win 37
http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/230736
Also looks good Also gives peace of mind

38. Product = Combination of
Vitamin and Painkiller Features
Playing to Win 38
http://blog.strategyzer.com/posts/2015/2/19/5-common-mistakes-to-avoid-when-using-the-value-proposition-canvas
Outside of our control
Common mistake: Creating your
Customer Profile through the lens of
your value proposition
Within our control

39. Different Kinds of Benefits
Playing to Win 39
Painkillers
Vitamins

40. How to Win = How to Change Customer
Behavior More Successfully than
Competition
Playing to Win 40
http://www.behaviormodel.org/

41. How to Change Customer Behavior
More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 41
http://www.behaviormodel.org/
Challenge Seekers
High
Extreme
Sales
SweetSpot
Low
Extreme
Comfort Zone Seekers

42. How to Change Customer Behavior
More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 42
http://www.behaviormodel.org/


???
??? Trigger = ???

43. How to Change Customer Behavior
More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 43
http://www.behaviormodel.org/


Brand ?
Value Prop?
Content?
CEX ?
Education?
Trigger = MarComm?
Discount ? - 

44. How to Change Customer Behavior
More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 44
http://www.behaviormodel.org/


Brand ?
Value Prop?
Content?
CEX ?
Education?
Trigger = MarComm?
Discount ? - 
BJ Fogg:
ROI(Changing Ability) >> ROI(Changing Motivation)
You should make it easy for customers to do WHAT THEY ALREADY WANT TO DO

Nir Eyal (Hooked)
External vs Internal Triggers
Hook your users via
INTERNAL TRIGGERS, VARIABLE REWARD and INVESTMENT

45. How to Change Customer Behavior
More Successfully than Competition
Playing to Win 45
http://www.behaviormodel.org/
 
6 Simplicity Factors:
 Time
 Money
 Physical Effort
 Brain Cycles
 Social Deviance
 Non-routine
Core Motivators
 + Pleasure / - Pain
 + Hope / - Fear
 + Social Acceptance
/ - Rejection
See Job-to-be-done, Purpose
Brands by Clayton Christensen
http://www.wsj.com/articles/S
B113323520565808847

46. The Hooked Model to Implement Internal
Triggers, Reward and Investment
Playing to Win 46
http://www.nirandfar.com/hooked
VITAMIN  PAINKILLER

47. Product vs Brand
Playing to Win 47
Brand image is not always under your control

48. Deep Dive Material
Playing to Win 48

49. 3 vs 4 Step Thinking / Learning Cycle
Playing to Win 49
http://theleanstartup.com/principles

50. 3 vs 4 Step Thinking / Learning Cycle
Playing to Win 50
Diagnosis Direction
http://theleanstartup.com/principles
Do Next

51. Why-How Laddering
Playing to Win 51
https://dschool.stanford.edu/wp-content/themes/dschool/method-cards/why-how-laddering.pdf


52. Mediocristan vs Extemistan
Playing to Win 52

53. Mediocristan vs Extremistan
Playing to Win 53

54. 54
„A strategy that only works if competitors continue to do exactly what they
are already doing is a dangerous strategy indeed.”
Playing to Win

55. Playing to Win: Making Stratey Choices
Playing to Win 55
 
https://hbr.org/2012/09/bringing-science-to-the-art-of-strategy

56. Questions for Reverse-Engineering
(Step #3)
Playing to Win 56

57. Reverse Engineering Example from P&G
Playing to Win 57

58. The First Question to Ask of Any Strategy
Playing to Win 58
So do a little test of your strategy before committing to it. Ask:
 Is the opposite stupid on its face?
 Have most of my competitors made the same choice as
me?
If the answers are “yes,” you have more work to do to have a
smart strategy rather than just a non-stupid one.
https://hbr.org/2015/05/the-first-question-to-ask-of-any-strategy

59. Example #1: Procter & Gamble
What is our winning aspiration?
• For Oil of Olay, it was to become a leading skin care brand again.
Where will we play?
• The Oil of Olay brand stayed with its mass market retailers (e.g., Target and Wal-Mart) rather
than the prestige stores (e.g., Macy’s). But it positioned itself as a "masstige" product — higher
end (and higher priced) than the traditional mass market beauty product.
How will we win?
• Among Oil of Olay’s winning strategies was producing a better anti-aging skin care product — a
product at the right price (e.g., not too low) that would entice the prestige customer base.
What capabilities must be in place?
• Oil of Olay, for example, was able to leverage P&G’s strengths in consumer understanding and
brand building.
What management systems are required?
• Oil of Olay was also able to leverage P&G’s systems as well as its channel and partner systems.
Playing to Win 59

60. Example #2: Vodafone Group
Playing to Win 60
How to Win:
 Worry-Free data usage with Red plans
 Monthly fee = stable revenue stream, fixed
customers pay typically monthly fee
 Broad coverage, a reliable connection,
increasing speeds and data capacity,
content, payment services
Capabilities:
 Project Spring: network development
 Service Design
 International brand
 India: more small-scale shops than
competitors
Mgmt System:
 The Vodafone Way, Code of Conduct
http://www.vodafone.com/content/annualreport/annualreport15/assets/pdf/full_annual_report_2015.pdf

61. Strategy Under Uncertainty: Strategic
Postures
Playing to Win 61
https://hbr.org/1997/11/strategy-under-uncertainty

62. Players and strategies in the TIME industry
62
Strategic Choices in Converging Industries TIME = Telco, Info tech, Media, Entertainment
Playing to Win

63. The Strategy Map (from Business Model
Generation)
63Playing to Win

64. Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos
Playing to Win 64
https://www.tmforum.org/tm-forum-frameworx/browse-clickable-model/
https://workflowy.com/s/2sJTXT54lA

65. Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos
Playing to Win 65
Decision 
Commit

66. Product vs Market Strategy for Telcos
Playing to Win 66
Product & Offer Portfolio Planning
processes develop strategies for products
at the portfolio level. The decision is made
as to which product types the enterprise
wants or needs to offer, and how it plans to
enter or grow in these sectors. This will be
done based on multiple inputs: including
Enterprise Strategies, Market Research and
Market Analysis.

67. Business (as opposed to Technical) Strategy
Domains
Strategic & Enterprise Planning
•The Strategic & Enterprise Planning
process grouping focuses on the
processes required to develop the
strategies and plans for the service
provider enterprise.
•This process grouping includes the
discipline of Strategic Planning that
determines the business and focus of
the enterprise, including which
markets the enterprise will address,
what financial requirements must be
met, what acquisitions may enhance
the enterprise's financial or market
position, etc.
•Enterprise Planning develops and
coordinates the overall plan for the
business working with all key units of
the enterprise. These processes drive
the mission and vision of the
enterprise.
Market Strategy & Policy
•Market Strategy & Policy processes
enable the development of a strategic
view of an enterprise’s existing and
desired market-place, activities and
aims.
•Market segmentation and analysis is
performed, to determine an
enterprise’s target and addressable
markets, along with the development
of marketing strategies for each
market segment or set of target
customers.
•The decision is made as to which
markets the enterprise wants or needs
to be in, and how it plans to enter or
grow in these markets and market
segments.
•This will be achieved through multiple
inputs: including Enterprise Strategies,
Market Research, Market Analysis.
Product & Offer Portfolio Planning
•Product & Offer Portfolio Planning
processes develop strategies for
products at the portfolio level.
•The decision is made as to which
product types the enterprise wants or
needs to offer, and how it plans to
enter or grow in these sectors.
•This will be done based on multiple
inputs: including Enterprise Strategies,
Market Research and Market Analysis
Playing to Win 67