Energiewende vs. Czech Energy Policay

1. Energiewende vs. Czech energy
policy
Milan Šimoník, 30.1.2016, Berlin

2. Czech myths
Source: MPO, 2005
 RES potential not sufficient in Czech republic
(partially true, but the potential by far not utilised yet)
 Unless we build new NPPs, candles will be needed

3. Děkuji za
pozornost.
Source: IVD conference, Prague, 18.6.2013
MPO/CEZ 2013: Unless we build new power plants,
there will be lack of electricity in 2020
Forecast of demand and production (without new plants, SEK).
Other fuels
Other
gases
NG
RES
Nuclear
Hard coal
Lignite
Demand
TWh

4. History
 1986 – DUKOVANY 4x440 MW
 1991 – Ecological limits of coal mining (government decree)
 2000 – TEMELIN 2x1000 MW (15 TWh/year)
 2000 - 2015 – electricity export 13-17 TWh/year
 2005 - Support for RES introduced (FITs)
 2009 - 2010 – Solar tunel
 2013 – up to now – FIT for RES substantially limited (PV, wind=0)
 2014 - EEG Umlage reform – fix fee acc. to feeder size,max.0,2
ct/kWh
 2014 – TEMELIN tender- cancelled

5. Solar tunel – The state was not capable(or not willing?) to effectively
react
History of FIT for FV up to 30 kW
Final price for households

6. Recent year (2015)
 ASEK – above 50% electricity from nuclear until 2040
 New Energy act – easier to build PV up to 10 kW
 Limits in Bilina mine released (100 mil. t), decision about ČSA
mine limits (Horni Jiretin) postponed until 2020 (750 mil. t)
 Action plan for nuclear energy (detailed, budget 1,3 bilion EUR)
 State commitee for nuclear energy
 Action plan for Smart grids – slow progress, planned up to 2035…
 Action plan for RES – vague, weak targets, no support for wind
 RES share on electricity production 12% (target for 2020 increased
from 13 to 15,3%)
 NZU – subsidies for RES in housholds
 OP PIK – subsidies for energy eff. in industry

7. Future
 2016 – started preparation of „Reform“ of distribution fees
(high fixed fee - less motivation for savings and
selfproduction)
 2016 – expected „unlimited“ life-extension permit for
DUKOVANY
 2016-2025 – preparation phase of 1-2 blocks in TEMELIN
and 1-2 blocks in DUKOVANY (financing model, permitting,
selection of supplier)
 2020 – re-evaluation of coal mining limits at ČSA mine
 2025 – final decisions about investment into new NPPs
 2033 – DUKOVANY commissioned?
 2037 – TEMELIN commissioned?

8. Source: ASEK 12/2014
Business as
usual….
ASEK 2015– Forecast of final energy
consumption

9. Germany – decoupling of GDP
and Energy consumption

10. Source: Dopady zvýšení energetické účinnosti na českou energetiku, Úřad vlády, listopad 2014
Czech economy is still very energy
intensive
Energy intensity of EU countries GJ/1000 EUR (equal sector base)

11. + 5 other
scenarios,
incl.green
one…
ASEK 2015– Update of Czech energy
strategy
„Optimised“ scenario:
 Electricity consumption expected to grow
 Up to 4 new nuclear reactors, above 50%
 Electricity export continued
 RES potential underestimated
Gross electricity production
RES
Gas
Nuke
Lignit
e

12. So called „green“ scenario:
 Consumption of electricity still growing
 No new nuclear reactors
 Only moderate RES growth
 Import of electricity needed - scenario refused
Lignit
e
Nuke
Gas
RES
Gross electricity production

13. Wind potential up to 16 TWh in 2040
(20% von Grossverbrauch)
Source: Study of Komora OZE, www.csve.cz/clanky/potencial-vetrne-energie-cr/495
Czech Republic - Wind energy potential
Optimistic
Conservative
ASEK-green
ASEK-optimised

14. RES potential is by 6-18 TWh higher than in „green“ scenario.
Wind
(TWh)
PV
(TWh)
Biomass
(TWh)
Water
(TWh)
Geo
(TWh)
Total RES
(TWh)
ASEK -
Optimised
Scenario
2,28 5,88 9,6 2,53 0,14 20
ASEK - Green
Scenario
4,53 7,6 10,2 2,53 0,14 24
Realistic green
scenario
8,34-16,08 8-10 11-13 2,53 0,14 30-42
Total RES electricity production in 2040

15. Realistic green scenario
Gross electricity production
New nuclear reactors
not needed until 2045
RES
Gas
Nuke
Lignit
e

16. Source Prognos/EWI/GWS 2014
Germany: In 2050 still 30% fossil
electricity?
Or import from „RES rich“ countries?

17. Milan Šimoník, Energy expert, Czech Greens
+420 725 628 034
simonik.milan@gmail.com
http://simonikmilan.wordpress.com
https://www.facebook.com/zeleni.energetika
 Trust we each other? Energy Union?
 Nordstream2?
 Grid extension in Germany?
 New design of electricity market? Market for nuclear energy?
 Common responsibility for energy security?
 RES potential in EU? Imports? Desertec?
Discussion

18. Abbreviations
 MPO Ministry of industry and trade
 SEK Czech energy strategy
 ASEK Update of Czech energy strategy
 OZE RES
 Komora OZE Czech Chamber of RES
 ERÚ Czech Energy regulatory office
 ÚEL Ecological limits of coal mining