Video ad views seem to have exploded four-fold while there was very little corresponding increase in hours viewed and number of unique viewers. This can only partially be explained by higher video ad fill rate. The rest is likely to be fraudulent views generated by botnets.

1. Video Ad Fraud
Hiding in Plain Sight
Dr. Augustine Fou
http://linkd.in/augustinefou
acfou @mktsci .com
April 2014
- 1 - Augustine Fou

2. Time Spent on Online Video
in 2013 is flat to 2012
2012 2013
2013 hours and unique
viewers are FLAT to 2012
Source: comScore, Jan 2014
- 2 - Augustine Fou

3. But ad views exploded 4-fold
Source: comScore Feb 2014 via Marketing Charts
50 – 75%
NOT in view
- 3 - Augustine Fou

4. Frequency rose 4-fold
reach increased 10%
10% increase in reach
Source: comScore Feb 2014 via Marketing Charts
- 4 - Augustine Fou

5. Video Ad Viewability
Jan 2014 North America
50 – 75%
NOT in view
Smallest video ads are only 25% viewable
Medium video ads are 40% viewable
Large video ads are 50% viewable
Source: TubeMogul Jan 2014
- 5 - Augustine Fou

6. Video Ads Are Lucrative
Video ad CPMs
average $8 - $12,
which means they
are more than 10X
more lucrative for
bad guys to target
than display or
mobile ads.
Source: Turn, Inc. October 2013
- 6 - Augustine Fou

7. Video Fraud (March 2014 data)
Total video ads March 2014 = 28.7B
Source: comScore
Fake video ad impressions per day = 88.4M /day
Source: TubeMogul Report
“from 3 botnets”
Fake video ads per month = 2.7B /month
3 botnets accounted for 9.2% of video ad views
(assuming $10 CPMs, 3 botnets caused $27 million of waste in March)
- 7 - Augustine Fou

8. So What?
“The ENTIRE increase (75% of the total current video
ad views) could be considered ‘very very suspicious.’
The pattern of actual human users watching video grew
steadily at 10% per year and ecommerce rate grew 12%
YoY; but video ads grew almost 400%, including the most
lucrative month of the year (December) when advertisers
massively upped their budgets to capture holiday sales.
Bad guys go where the money is and this is certainly
their gravy train.”
-- Dr. Augustine Fou
- 8 - Augustine Fou

9. comScore Raw Data
- 9 - Augustine Fou

10. ComScore March 2014
- 10 - Augustine Fou

11. Unique Viewers 2013
179,505
177,955
182,497
Unique Viewers (000)
181,934
182,217
183,308
187,430
188,499
188,690
188,976
189,178
188,249
200,000
190,000
180,000
170,000
160,000
150,000
140,000
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
Source: comScore Online Video Rankings Monthly
- 11 - Augustine Fou

12. Minutes per Viewer 2013
1,140
1,046
flat
1,203
Minutes per Viewer
1,202
1,248
1,299
1,354
1,294
1,248
1,330
1,177
1,164
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
Source: comScore Online Video Rankings Monthly
- 12 - Augustine Fou

13. Content Videos 2013
36,194
33,031
39,307
38,751
Videos (M)
40,954
44,694
48,466
46,746
45,963
49,081
47,148
52,374
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
-
Source: comScore Online Video Rankings Monthly
- 13 - Augustine Fou

14. Video Ads 2013
Source: comScore Online Video Rankings Monthly
9,094
9,865
13,185
13,256
Video Ads (M)
15,845
20,091
19,600
22,755
22,934
24,490
26,758
35,235
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
- 14 - Augustine Fou

15. Ad Minutes 2013
Source: comScore Online Video Rankings Monthly
3,494
3,774
5,036
Total Ad Minutes (M)
5,137
6,042
7,487
7,428
8,516
8,530
9,220
10,234
13,235
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
- 15 - Augustine Fou

16. Ad Minutes per User 2013
Source: comScore Online Video Rankings Monthly
19 21
28 28
Ad Mins per Viewer
33
41 40
45 45
49
54
70
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
- 16 - Augustine Fou

17. How Video Ad Views
are Manufactured
- 17 - Augustine Fou

18. Use Botnets to Create Views
Source: Wired
Source: Google Digital Attack Map
- 18 - Augustine Fou

19. Traffic Firehose On/Off
Source: Alexa
Legit human traffic does not change rapidly; but bot traffic
(firehose) can be rapidly turned off and directed to other sites.
- 19 - Augustine Fou

20. Normal vs Fake Traffic
Normal traffic differs from
site to site
FAKE traffic is the same
across several sites
(corresponds to the amount
that was purchased)
- 20 - Augustine Fou

21. Other “gray-hat”
ways to inflate views
- 21 - Augustine Fou

22. Autoplay Video Ads
Break.com
Multiple video
ads auto-played
simultaneously
on the same
page.
- 22 - Augustine Fou

23. Autoplay (4) Ads
Metacafe.com
Multiple video ads auto-played
back to back with
no user intervention.
- 23 - Augustine Fou

24. Autoplay Video Takeover
Break.com
Autoplayed T-mobile
video ad in full page
takeover.
- 24 - Augustine Fou

25. Dr. Augustine Fou – Digital Consigliere
“Over the course of 2013 we saw the
dramatic rise in the number of display and
video ads; however, along with this increase
was a dramatic rise in ad fraud, from fake
impressions or ads that are not viewable.”
FORMER CHIEF DIGITAL OFFICER, HCG (OMNICOM)
MCKINSEY CONSULTANT
CLIENT SIDE / AGENCY SIDE EXPERIENCE
PROFESSOR AND COLUMNIST
ENTREPRENEUR / SMALL BUSINESS OWNER
PHD MATERIALS SCIENCE (MIT '95) AT AGE 23
ClickZ Articles: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-clickz
Slideshares: http://bit.ly/augustine-fou-slideshares
LinkedIn Bio: http://linkd.in/augustinefou
LinkedIn Posts: https://www.linkedin.com/today/author/84444-augustinefou
- 25 - Augustine Fou
@acfou

26. Related Reading
Viewability of Online Ads
By: Augustine Fou, December 2013
Fake Linkedin Profiles
By: Augustine Fou, December 2013
Fake Facebook Profiles
By: Augustine Fou, Dec 2013
Fake Twitter Accounts
By: Augustine Fou, August 2013
How Display Fraud Works
By: Augustine Fou, May 2013
How Click Fraud Works
By: Augustine Fou, November 2013
Ad Fraud Estimates
By: Augustine Fou, March 2014
Digital Ad Spending by Type
By: Augustine Fou March 2014
The Three Things You Should Know about Digital Ad Fraud
By: Augustine Fou April 2014
- 26 - Augustine Fou

27. APPENDIX
- 27 - Augustine Fou

28. U.S. Retail E-commerce
2012
2013
12% YoY
Source: comScore via MarketingCharts April 9, 2014
- 28 - Augustine Fou

29. comScore data sources
https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/2/comScore_Releases_January_2013_US_Online_Video
_Rankings
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/3/comScore_Releases_February_2013_U.S._Online_Vide
o_Rankings
https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/4/comScore_Releases_March_2013_US_Online_Video_
Rankings
https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/5/comScore_Releases_April_2013_US_Online_Video_
Rankings
https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/6/comScore_Releases_May_2013_US_Online_Video_R
ankings
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/7/comScore_Releases_June_2013_US_Online_Video_Ra
nkings
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/8/comScore_Releases_July_2013_US_Online_Video_Ra
nkings
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/9/comScore_Releases_August_2013_U.S._Online_Video
_Rankings
https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/10/comScore_Releases_September_2013_US_Online_V
ideo_Rankings
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/11/comScore_Releases_October_2013_US_Online_Vide
o_Rankings
http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/12/comScore_Releases_November_2013_U.S._Online_V
ideo_Rankings
https://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2014/1/comScore_Releases_December_2013_US_Online_Vid
eo_Rankings
- 29 - Augustine Fou